Trump administration weighs drastic cut to U.S. forces in Europe of 25,000 or more

[u/John3262005]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-weighs-pulling-nearly-third-us-forces-europe-rcna597722

The Pentagon is weighing a drastic plan to pull planes, ships, weapons and tens of thousands of U.S. troops from Europe, despite warnings from NATO allies about the growing threat of Russian aggression, according to seven current and former U.S. and Western officials.

The reduction could be roughly one-third of all U.S. troops in Europe, or about 25,000. A U.S. official and another person with knowledge of the deliberations say it could be even larger — as much as half, or up to 40,000 troops.

If carried out, it would be the most significant scaling back of the 80,000-strong U.S. military presence in Europe since the aftermath of the Cold War in the 1990s.

The prospect of such dramatic cuts has alarmed lawmakers from both parties and European governments concerned about emboldening Russia. Such a withdrawal could radically reshape America’s relationship with its major allies and force European countries to forge new partnerships at a volatile moment, with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Countries affected by the cuts will likely include Germany, Italy and Spain, according to three U.S. officials, a Western official and a former U.S. official with knowledge of the matter. The three nations host the bulk of U.S. troops in Europe, but leaders of all the countries have also clashed with President Donald Trump over the war with Iran.

Since the beginning of his second term, Trump and his deputies have argued that Europe should take the lead in its own defense, backed by America’s nuclear arsenal, and that U.S. forces are needed to tackle more urgent threats from China, Iran and drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere. In recent months, Trump, who has long questioned the value of the NATO alliance, has lashed out at European partners over their refusal to join the United States in its war against Iran.

The Pentagon announced a six-month review of the American military’s presence in Europe in June. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the supreme allied commander and the head of U.S. European Command, is expected to provide his analysis to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday, according to the U.S. and Western officials.

The analysis by Grynkewich will likely outline four courses of action that could include cuts to American aviation, naval personnel and ground troops, or other capabilities, and possibly shifting some forces within Europe to countries on NATO’s eastern flank.

Hegseth is due to receive a final recommendation on Nov. 6, which would then be presented to the president. Any withdrawals would happen after that.

No decisions have been made yet, according to a senior Defense Department official and two other officials.

Hegseth directed the six-month review of forces in Europe to “ensure our posture aligns with President Trump’s commonsense, America First strategy,” a senior Defense Department official said in a statement.

The State Department did not respond to a request for comment, and the White House referred questions to the Pentagon.

During the NATO summit in Turkey in July, Trump said he “was very disappointed with NATO” and again criticized the alliance for not acknowledging American prowess.

“Why are we spending hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re not there for us?” Trump said. “We’ve always been there for them.”

A month earlier, during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, Trump was asked what he wanted from allies and answered: “Just be loyal.”

“I just want their loyalty. We don’t need their money. We don’t need anything. We have the most powerful military in the world by far, but I just want loyalty,” he said.

Opponents of slashing U.S. forces in Europe say it will leave NATO allies vulnerable and invite Russian aggression, sow doubts among U.S. partners in other parts of the world and deprive the American military of logistical hubs that enable the United States to move its forces quickly to the Middle East or Africa.

European officials have asked Washington, both before and after the six-month review, for a more gradual drawdown that would give their governments enough time to build up sophisticated military capabilities that have long been filled solely by the United States, including long-range missiles, satellite surveillance and aerial refueling tankers.

Germany, which for decades has been an anchor for the U.S. military in Europe, hosts multiple U.S. bases, with about 36,000 troops, the largest American deployment in the region.

In May, the Pentagon announced plans to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany after the country’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: “An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards.” After the announcement, Trump said he would go “a lot further” than that, threatening to cut more troops.

Italy is home to major U.S. air bases and about 12,000 troops. Spain hosts significant U.S. air and naval hubs at Spanish bases in the country’s south.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government in March refused to allow U.S. warplanes carrying out potential strikes on Iran to use a base in Sicily without parliamentary approval. And the Spanish government angered the White House early in the war when it denied access to military bases for U.S. air attacks on Iran. European leaders were upset they were not told in advance of the decision to attack, with some saying they do not want to escalate the conflict and expressing concern about the economic consequences.

The possible cuts have already generated deep concern not only among Democrats, but also among many senior Republicans.

“A 25,000-troop cut is not acceptable in any way,” said one congressional Republican, citing the reduction of two rotational brigade combat teams from Germany last year amid concerns that Russian aggression in the region is only increasing. “You can’t do Russian deterrence on the cheap.”

Withdrawing troops from Europe and rehousing them within the United States or elsewhere in the world could carry a significant price tag, which could give Congress leverage. Lawmakers could block or restrict major force changes in Europe by denying the Pentagon funds to pay for the redeployment of troops and weapons.

In legislation adopted in December, Congress prohibited the use of certain Defense Department funds if troop levels in Europe dip below 76,000, or if the U.S. divests from sites in the region or relinquishes the role of an American senior officer serving as the top allied commander. But defense insiders and former officials say there could be ways around the law, including by explaining troop withdrawals as temporary moves as part of rotational deployments.

The Trump administration’s troop review follows repeated warnings from European governments that Russia poses an acute threat to Europe and the world. European leaders say Russia has ramped up a campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, assassinations and drone flights across the continent designed to undermine military aid to Ukraine and divide the NATO alliance.

Germany this month blamed Russia for an attempted attack at an airport in Leipzig involving a drone armed with an explosive. And over the weekend, a drone struck a train near the Ukraine-Poland border, minutes after a diplomatic delegation including former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt rode through the same station. A second drone strike hit near a separate border crossing between Poland and Ukraine.

European officials accused Russia of staging the drone attacks to intimidate governments providing military aid to Ukraine. Russia dismissed the accusations.

Since June, NATO says aircraft patrolling the skies over the alliance’s eastern flank have downed multiple drones believed to have been launched by Russia. Italian fighter jets shot down drones over Lithuania and Latvia, a French warplane shot one down over Latvia, a Spanish fighter downed a drone in Romanian airspace, and a Romanian aircraft shot another down over Romania.

The fallout from Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s threats to pull defensive support have already pushed Germany and some other NATO allies to dramatically increase defense spending.

Germany increased its military budget by 25% this year, and the country’s defense minister said during a visit to the Pentagon on Wednesday that NATO allies were ready to do more.

“We Europeans want to take some of the burden off the U.S. and assume primary responsibility for conventional deterrence in Europe over time,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said as he stood alongside Hegseth, his American counterpart.

The future of U.S. troop levels in Europe has divided the Trump administration for months and came to a head in June in the run-up to a meeting of NATO defense ministers.

The Pentagon had planned to inform the ministers about a dramatic cut to U.S. forces in Europe involving tens of thousands of troops, but the move was headed off by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who got wind of the plan at the last minute, according to multiple current and former U.S. and Western officials. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the planned presentation.

Since June, the State Department has been fighting to stay in the administration’s discussions with mixed success, as the Pentagon doesn’t view the question as a diplomatic issue but purely as a military matter, according to a person with knowledge of the State Department’s efforts.

In August, a questionnaire sent by the Trump administration to European allies asked about defense budget targets and weapons production — but also asked whether the governments supported Trump’s foreign policy priorities.

In his speech to NATO defense ministers in June, Hegseth said the administration’s examination of future force levels in Europe would not be a superficial exercise.

“This will be a real review. It will be designed to ensure that NATO is moving fast and irreversibly toward Europe leading, stepping up to take primary responsibility for the defense of Europe,” he said.

The U.S. military presence in Europe grew out of the aftermath of World War II and during the Cold War, as the United States led a trans-Atlantic alliance to safeguard Europe from the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The American footprint, which peaked at more than 400,000 troops in the 1950s, was dialed back after the Cold War, but the U.S. deployed additional troops and military hardware to the continent after Russia’s seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Grynkewich, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe, told lawmakers in March that having bases, troops and weapons in Europe enables the U.S. military to operate in other parts of the world more efficiently.

“It is having capabilities in Europe, munitions in Europe that allow us to help U.S. Africa Command to target terrorists in Africa, or to help U.S. Central Command as they execute Operation Epic Fury,” the general told lawmakers, referring to the war against Iran.

“The distances are shorter, it’s less expensive and it’s much easier to project power,” he said.