I'm a young person and here the general advice is to have a 12 months emergency fund and the rest mainly in stocks.

Since I'm young still, I may need to buy a house and renovate it, a car or other big expenses that are not "emergencies" so it's not recommended to take from the emergency fund. In case of a recession, where would I take money from?

I know my portfolio sucks and I'm losing a lot of opportunities but my NW is $140k and only $30k is in stocks (ETFs) albeit I plan to reach at least 40k in the upcoming future. The rest is in money market ETFs and medium term bonds. The things is that I'm very uncertain about my future and what I want to do. Thank you.

This situation reminds me of shipping companies. Many shippers are just lessors, they lease ships from another company that bought the ships with huge debts, but these purchases were only made with negotiated customer on fixed lease term 5 to10 years contract. This is similar business model like neoclouds.

Once the contract is up, the spot shipping rate is usually crap and does not generate enough to pay the residual debt used to fund the initial build, while the 5 yearly surveying cost increases. A lot of these shipping companies are huge shareholder value destroyers, so naturally most had shifted to Asia for the lowest cost base.

The past few days are obvious forced liquidations due to players with highly concentrated and levered positions in AI and tech. The market including much of tech and AI stocks will recover, but don't count on the same with neoclouds because their business model is flawed. Decades of the same business model employed by shipping companies has proven this beyond any reasonable doubt.

You might say it's different because ships are much easier to build than GPUs. Don't count on the hidden risk in plain sight. NVDA is not going to have a forever monopoly. There are Google's TPU etc and we have not seen yet new powerful GPUs from China. This is exactly how things panned out for shippers. Every new generation of ships are much more cost effective than the previous, so older ships that have contracts ended would fail to attract the best contract rates and contract length.

AI will survive, and gets even bigger than ever. Businesses with flawed business models will go through cycles of ups and downs but mostly downs, and destroying shareholder value in that process. They will still be there, like the yesteryear's shipping companies that are no longer the talk of the town, doing important work that the world requires, leaving a graveyard of yesteryear's investors.

Anthropic secured highest junk credit rating in June

Good news for Anthropic's borrowing ability

although KBRA (non-Big-Three) is generous here, if it was S&P, Moody's, or Fitch , the rating would likely be B+ to ccc.

still this is one of the only good news happened to anthropic lately.

i wonder if this helps coreweave

Down 15% on this ticker myself, it just kept dipping. Now it has the issue of a potential market pullback to deal with. Avg is $204. I know I’ll be roasted for investing in rate sensitive sectors with a hawkish fed but the value looked good and I believe in green energy playing a prominent role in an increasing energy hungry world. Anyone have a position in it? Think democrat election victories are a potential catalyst?

OK, so I get the basic premise that you sell stocks that are down to create capital losses. It's the reinvestment that I don't understand.

You can't buy "substantially identical" stocks or it would trigger a wash sale. So what do you buy?

Then, what happens when you repeat those transactions hundreds or thousands of times? It seems like the portfolio would no longer reflect the index that you started with.

At this point, doesn't it just become an actively managed fund? And hasn't research proven that actively managed funds typically underperform passive funds?

Beyond CoreWeave, several major NVIDIA-backed "neoclouds" and GPU cloud providers including Lambda Labs, Nebius, Crusoe Energy, and IREN are facing severe market scrutiny, growing massive debt pressure, or slow AI revenue growth.

What happens to NVIDIA and all the other ai hardware companies like the ones in South Korea

Hey all! I'd appreciate any insight or advice on the stock I own for a company that is being acquired. Company is being purchased by PE so it will be going private, they announced the cash price per share.

Currently trading about 2% below that purchase price.

Does it make sense to just carry it to the end and collect the purchase price or is there any advantage to unloading it before?

Can't imagine there's any reason someone would buy it at or above that purchase price but wasn't sure if there is something else I'm missing.

Thanks!

Investment thesis for trading week 10/19 - 10/23

Well, earnings season started with a bang!

Banks reported disappointing earnings and despite a nice setup from a chart perspective the market reaction caused some damage now.

Tech giants are yet to report but the NDX 100 weekly chart now looks more like distribution is happening.

From a pure chart perspective there is no clear signal albeit there is a risk now that we will roll over.

Fear and Greed index, put/call ratio and market breadth could support a bounce however.

The drop in yields might support equities from a macro perspective going forward.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

Short term portfolios are now only invested in the S&P 500 (80%), TLT (bonds 30%) and KWEB (15%). That adds up to 125% meaning leverage is 1.25.

That feels like an appropriate allocation in the current environment where market risks are rising but the overall tailwinds still exist. Short term portfolio is up 22.6% YTD.

Long term portfolios deleveraged more this week and they are now at the ideal 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 30% Cash/Bonds. Rest is crypto and KWEB.

The more defensive stance comes from an elevated long term market risk. Since I am up 11% YTD capital protection is key.

Given the current chart picture no trades are planned for next week!

Stay safe and have a great weekend!

Insurers are writing generative AI exclusions into policies right as companies are getting ready to give AI systems more autonomy.

Here's what I could verify. In January 2026, ISO, the group behind the standard general liability forms, made three generative AI exclusion endorsements available to carriers. Chubb, Berkshire Hathaway, Travelers, W.R. Berkley and AIG have filed to adopt them or something similar. One review of state filings found 2,369 generative AI exclusion records across 49 states. Berkley seems to have gone furthest, with an absolute AI exclusion for its D&O, E&O and fiduciary liability products. The ISO forms themselves are for general liability.

What I can't tell you is how many renewals have actually dropped AI coverage. The filings show the exclusions exist and carriers can use them, not how often they do.

The correlation problem is the part I find most interesting. Insurers deal with correlated risk all the time, including hurricanes and cyberattacks. But can they measure and cap AI exposure across their policyholders? If hundreds of customers run on the same underlying model, one failure could set off a lot of claims at once, and there's very little history to price it with.

The scale is early too. In October 2025, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that OpenAI had about $300 million of coverage for emerging AI risks, a small fraction of what its lawsuits could cost. Those are unnamed sources, and the coverage concerns the labs' own legal exposure, not enterprise deployments.

Companies don't need insurance to deploy AI. They can keep the risk, push vendors for indemnities, or limit what the system can do on its own. I haven't found a case of a company shelving an AI deployment because it couldn't get coverage.

Still, insurers are preparing to limit their exposure just as businesses are preparing to give AI systems greater responsibility.

If businesses end up keeping more of the liability themselves, does that change how much autonomy they're willing to give these systems, and how much they're willing to pay for them?

​

The long-term trend in Treasury yields appears to be turning increasingly bullish, with the 30year yield potentially heading toward 8% over the coming year or months. As the chart shows, yields have broken out of a multi decade downward channel and are now pushing above a key resistance level that held for years.

A short-term pullback toward 5.25% is still possible, but it may not change the bigger picture. If this breakout holds, it could signal a structural shift toward higher long t borrowing costs, driven by persistent inflation, rising government debt, and investors demanding greater compensation for holding long-term bonds.

The Federal Reserve cold also face a difficult challenge trying to keep borrowing costs contained if market forces continue pushing yields higher.

Whyy this matters for the stock market A sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields could put pressure on stock valuations, particularly high-growth technology stocks like those n the Nasdaq, as higher bond yields make future corporate earnings less valuable n today's dollars. It could also increase mortgage rates, raise borrowing costs 4 businesses and consumers, n put additional pressure on the broader economy.

Tha key takeaway is that even if yields experience a temporary pullback, the long-term technical picture suggests the risk of significantly higher borrowing costs remains on the table. A move toward 8% wold be a major development for financial markets. re u prepared?

https://ibb.co/SDszFQC1

September’s producer price index came in much hotter than economists forecasted on Thursday, underscoring the continued inflationary pressure from energy amid the U.S. war with Iran.

The measure of underylying inflation pressures climbed 1.3% in September and 6.3% on an annual basis, marking its largest 12-month advance since late 2022, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists polled by Dow Jones forecasted an advance of 0.6% on the month and 5.5% annually.

Firstly i want to clarify: i do not mean a collapse, AI is not going away. I am talking about a market adjustment.

$$V = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{CF_t}{(1+r)^t}$$

CF is the expected cash flow in year t, meaning the cash the company is expected to generate that year. r is the discount rate and t is the time horizon. If r increases (i.e., interest rates rise), the discount factor (1+r)^t grows exponentially over time t, reducing the present value of any future cash flow. This primarily hits industrial projects based on future cash flows, just like AI ( one only needs to look at their P/E ratios)

Wednesday’s drop followed higher inflation data, which reignited fears of higher interest rates and increased borrowing costs to fund tech development. Thus, rate expectations (r) and growth concerns (CF) both played a role the day before yesterday.

Oracle, neo-clouds, and data center builders take out loans or issue bonds to build capacity, backed by contracts with labs (OpenAI, Anthropic). The bond is serviced by the data center rent. The rent is paid by the customer, which can be a lab or a neo-cloud. If the lab has no earnings, it pays with new equity capital. And that capital depends on valuations and secure funding. If valuations drop, the IPO gets delayed (like OpenAI did), the customer slows down or renegotiates, and the bond loses value.

So the problem arises when a lab can no longer pay, not only because it lacks earnings, but because it can no longer raise capital (due to mistrust on AI as seen yesterday with the KOSPI market, or due to difficulty on raise capital due to high interest rates)

Between July 28 and 29, the main Seoul stock index (Kospi) dropped 16% over two consecutive sessions, forcing regulators to trigger circuit breakers (temporary trading halts). Also back then he sell-off was triggered by severe doubts about the short-term profitability of AI infrastructure spending and pressure on Korean memory giants.

Many companies and data center operators are taking on heavy debt (via high-yield bond issuances or loans) to buy chips and build multi-hundred-megawatt servers. With high interest rates, debt servicing costs are starting to weigh heavily, sparking fears over long-term financial sustainability and negatively impacting semiconductor stocks.

For decades, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero. Investors borrowed Yen almost for free, converted them into US dollars and bought higher-yielding asset like US treasuries and bonds. However, due to an excessively weak yen, the BoJ has decided to raise interest rates, now 1.25%. If japanese investors (the largest foreign buyer of US debt) are no longer buying because it is more convenient at home, then the US treasury is forced to offer higher interest rates to their bonds.

the Fed meets on October 28 to assess interest rates, while the BoJ meets on October 30 to see whether to hike further. If they continue to raise rates, "r" will rise further.

Can a domino effect happen? meaning

BoJ rise interest rates -> Capital unwinds from US Treasuries (Carry trade ends) -> US Treasury yields rise (the price of new and existing debt increases r ↑ )-> Debt becomes too expensive for AI labs & Data centers -> Venture capital reduces funding and IPO gets delayed -> AI labs struggle to pay data center leases -> Mistrust & default fears spread --> High-yield AI data center bonds struggle, spreading to the tech market.

Am i reading it wrong? what am i missing?

Currently have a indv. brokerage account and IRA account for rollovers (Trad. & Roth) through u/Fidelity. I am thinking of starting a second brokerage account with another brokerage firm(Ex: TD / Schwab, etc) for similar use. Thought being, don't want everything to be at one brokerage. Thoughts on this approach? Go.

I don’t think people realize what’s happening! 84% of S&P 500 stocks are at least 10% below their all-time highs, 41% are down more than 30%, and 17% down more than 50%. 

We are in a recession already. I’ll get comments that markets are near all time highs. That’s the point! Most stocks are down! A few are holding everything else up. The markets are not healthy nor sustainable and something has to give, soon.

For those who have been investing for a while, I’m curious how you think the tech sector will look over the next 10–20 years compared to the broader market. I’ve been looking into different ETFs and find VGT interesting, especially given how much technology has grown over the past few years. At the same time, I wonder whether that level of growth is sustainable long term.
What other ETFs do you find interesting for long term investing, particularly ones focused on growth or sectors you think have potential over the next couple of decades? I’d be interested to hear what people are watching and why.

Hi - stock market is volatile and it's down .

Mist of my investments are in blue chip stocks but I do have some positions in sofi, iren, etc.

Since the whole market is down, I lost all of my gains.

Worried how much more it will fall and how long it will take to recover.

I've not booked these losses and I'm trying to not look at my portfolio.

Considering upcoming interest rate decision and midterm elections, are we already in recession or it will start in 2027?

I would like to know your opinion on the following thesis and consequences, and if you have any alternative ones. I am looking to allocate cash during the next year and would love to know your opinion.

My investment premise is the following: the AI hype is gonna die down in the following months, causing relocation of capital into other sectors.

In that scenario, is worth knowing which sectors are those. AI basically sucked the life of every industry in the planet and that's reversing right now. The question is what is needed right now?

1) Military: Even though the biggest growth spurt of the sector has gone through, current geopolitical uncertainty is not going to go away in the next 10 years. Countries are rearming and investing in new military technologies, which pushes investment into electronics and manufacturing. European defense specifically will grow inmensely during the next few years decoupling from the US (this is the best-case scenario, but uncertain). Specific metals and minerals are highly in demand for weapon production. Sectors: heavy industry, manufacturing, mining, electronics.

2) Energy: We're living under an oil shock, that is not going to improve in the short term, if anything it's gonna get worse before it gets better. Every country is looking at their dependence on oil and reassesing positions. Non-oil producing countries will move to nuclear and renewables, coal might be coming back from the dead. Sectors: heavy industry, mining, renewable energy, nuclear.

3) Deglobalization: As a consequence of all of the above, inter-block capital flows are going to stall. That includes cultural capital. Domestic entertainment industries outside of the US are gonna flourish and niche products that don't look at US cultural trends and develop domestically are gonna be in demand. Sectors: video games, cinema, publishing (non-US).

The future of AI: Semiconductors, infrastructure, and AI monolyths that can do everything are dying. AGI is not less than 20 years away. The long term prognosis for AI is hyperscalers serving general chatbots that can do ok helping with most tasks with minor players around them serving orchestrators, tools, agents for specific things and niche chatbots (f.e. Claude for programmers, Suno for musicians and so on).

AI will become a tool like spreadsheets, or audio workstations, or forklifts. It's not gonna be a fact of life everyone has to deal with and it's not gonna demolish the job market. The investment thesis for Anthropic at $2T is that it will replace most software engineers on earth: that is nonsense.

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Im quickly trying to build my taxable account to 100 shares of SPY for covered calls. My plan is if I can do this I can sell out of the money covered calls to collect the Premium from volatility. While spy continues to average 10-15% per year I can hold the shares and sell calls, If my shares did get assigned I would just purchase 100 shares again and repeat the cycle as long as these calls aren’t too far in expiration and a reasonable price out money .

I'm reading that Fractyl Health ($GUTS) had some good news today. It makes no sense to me why the stock would crash when they just now released great information. Is this due to some investors concerned about the upcoming dilution that could happen?

October holds the historical reputation for having some of the most famous and catastrophic market crashes.

The Panic of 1907: A severe financial crisis which triggered a massive run on banks.

The 1929 Crash (Black Tuesday/Thursday): The severe market collapse that led into the Great Depression, with the Dow Jones dropping around 25% over a few days in late October.

Black Monday (1987): On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6%, the largest one-day percentage drop in history. 

The 2008 Financial Crisis: Steep declines and intense volatility of the Great Recession peaked in October 2008.

October 10, 2025, Bitcoin’s Flash Crash, losing over $19B in leveraged positions within 24 hours.

I've been looking into what my options are in defensive investments and touched on the normal consumer staples, healthcare, real estate, etc. but then as I started reading into quality stocks (basically solid, consistent financials, low debt, and performance), I see that Vanguard offers VFQY which appears to have a similar, just less tech-heavy composition than VOO.

It's traded leading/lagging VOO in the last few years, and sure, the expense ratio is ~4x as much, but what am I missing about why to or not to invest in it? This seems like a more reasonable, diversified allocation of sectors than VOO currently is, no?

So I had enough to use the free $1000 margin before and it seemed to be working fine using SGOV like recommended here. But now I placed another $1000 to use for something else but it seems like they just automatically shifted it to "cover" the $1000 margin? So how do I both keep the $1000 of free margin as SGOV while also depositing more cash to buy other stuff? I also can't withdraw that $1000 out either.