Since this is the category I feel like I'm the most confident in my knowledge and with the first returns for Wildwood, I wanted to write up what I think the race looks like for what seems to be a pretty competitive year for noms.

Wildwood : this has been considered as the front-runner for all of 2026 even without any reviews, and for many reasons : potentially one of the most ambitious animated films ever made (probably the most ambitious of the century so far), Laika biggest movie so far and with quite an overdue narrative behind it since they never won. Now that the reviews dropped and showed excellent returns above what many had hoped, I don't see how any other film could win this category this year. As far as the race for the win goes, I think it's pretty much over, congratulations Laika for your first Oscar lol. As far as other nominations for the film goes, I won't go too much in details but Visual Effects is absolutely on the table (I have it in no.5), and Song could happen as well. Anything else is too much of a long shot (Picture, Screenplay) or has too much competition (Production Design)

Toy Story 5 : Many are going to say that this a lock, considering the history of this franchise, and to be fair, there is no reason to doubt this would miss. However, I'm on the opinion that Pixar is only going to have one film this year, and while I think this will be the one, it's not 100% safe either. The film had good but not great reviews (I think it's the worst reviewed TS film so far if I remember?) and it seems to already lose some steam, but the subject matter of electronics/screen toys that will resonate with older people, its good box-office and the potential Song nom is probably going to make it safe for a nom. I just don't think it has any prospect of winning and even saying it's no.2 is debatable

Ray Gunn : I was doubting about this one all year, considering this has been in the works for so long, which usually is far from a good sign and could have led to a very messy film. However, first reviews have dropped and while it seems like it's good but not great, it's positive enough to guarantee a nom. Netflix has yet to miss a nomination in this category since 2021 and I don't know why this year would be the one where they miss, especially since the industry loves Brad Bird and will rally behind his passion project. Not beating Wildwood obviously but it's pretty safe for now

Hoppers : idk guys I just don't see it. In a year with so many contenders, I don't see Pixar getting two nominations. I think the current voting body of this branch has moved over giving automatic noms to Pixar. However, it would be really silly of me to not see this has many strengths. Not only is this a Pixar original, which so far has always been nominated, it's the best reviewed one since a long time (although that's not saying much lol), and has seen a lot of passion during the first months after its release. But at least to me, it has released way to early to keep that passion going for all the year, with so many other animated films already released and on the way as well. The fact that this is also pretty much a full comedy, closer to a Dreamworks film than your usual Pixar drama, doesn't up its chances a lot. For now I have it missing, but I wouldn't be surprised if it manages to get in if it gets all the precursors, so a solid 50/50

Forgotten Island : this is another one where I'm really on the fence, truly a 50/50. It has strengths, such as its vibrant colors and art style and impressive animation that voters will certainly appreciate, and apparently has a pretty strong emotional core. Dreamworks will obviously campaign for it a good bit, and the Puss in Boots 2 director being behind it is also going to help I think. But I also think it's far from being safe either : while the reviews have been pretty positive, I've seen a bit of negative attention, saying the film is overwhelmingly fast and on the more childish side. This wouldn't be too much of an issue if it wasn't for its biggest problem so far : it seems to be struggling pretty bad at the box office, some would even say it's flopping, and that's really not a good look for Dreamworks which doesn't have a perfect track record for noms. I still have it in my predictions over Hopper but I can see one replacing the other easily.

Iron Boy : Now this is one where I'm super shocked why people aren't predicting more, especially when people predict Tangles over it. I will address Tangles later, but I think this is a much, much stronger pick for the inevitable indie choice for the line-up. It was selected Un Certain Regard at Cannes, got quite a bit of buzz there and managed to win multiple prizes at Annecy, which includes the Jury Prize (for the record, this is the exact same history Flow had in 2024), and Annecy winners seems to have a good track record in nominations those last two years. In addition, it will probably be the only solid contender with 2d animation, which people will rally behind, and has a notable watercolor art style as well. And it seems this is going to have some success with European audiences/voters, and it's a pretty accessible/familial film that also tackles some societal issues. I honestly struggle to see why this would miss unless it doesn't get a proper campaign/doesn't get enough passion

Tangles : this is the indie film people seems to be rallying behind at this state of the year and I can see why : it has excellent reviews, seems to be an emotional adult film that will resonate with many people due to its subject matter. And I would love if this would get a nom ! But sadly I don't think it's happening. First of all, it got picked up by a distributor pretty late, which isn't in its favors, and it hasn't been talked about a lot in current discussions. But IMO the biggest problem here is that it's a R Rated animated film in black-and-white with a main queer romance, and even if the category has evolved a looot since last years, this is still a really high bar to push. People will bring up Memoir of a Snail but that one had the chance to be from a household director and previous winner, as well as having an Annecy Crystal. The only way I could see this being nominated is if both Hoppers and Forgotten Island miss, as I don't think this is replacing Iron Boy place as the indie pick. Overall, it will do very well and get a lot of passion from critics and cinephiles (similarly to Little Amelie last year), and might get a Globes nom, but I think this is the ceiling sadly.

Shaun the Sheep : During a moment I thought this could be a very solid contender, considering the love story between the Academy and Aardmann (a solid chunk of their feature lengths were nominated, and even won once) and the almost-guaranteed nom in BAFTAS, it could sneak in easily. But I don't think this is as strong of an IP as Wallace and Gromit is, and the last film of that franchise only got in because it was a terribly weak year. Not completely writing this off yet, I can totally see a path but for now I'm not super confident.

Hexed : yeah no. With two Pixars competing for having a nom Disney is not going to campaign very hard for this, and it seems to be quite the average Disney film we have been used to those last few years. IMO this isn't in the conversation unless it's surprisingly better than what it seems, which is probably not happening LMAO

In Waves : another one that I think is pretty much dead in the waters (pun not intended). The reception has been too muted/passionless for it to have any motion, especially with two other, much stronger indie picks on the way. And besides, if Netflix couldn't even get Lost in Starlight in the awfully weak year that was 2025, they're certainly not getting this this year lol.

Coyote VS ACME : now this is the wildest of the wild cards, as its chances are entirely dependent on whether it's eligible or not. I've heard many people say it's not eligible, other saying that it actually is ? IDK maybe I haven't followed up enough. Personally I think this doesn't have enough animation to be considered eligible, but if it somewhat does, then I think it actually has a shot for a nom, with how much passion it has and an extremely obvious underdog narrative behind it. We'll see !

And I think that's all, any other contenders I could have missed are simply not even in the conversation for me, so unless you think I really missed something, let me know!

I love this series because it's always fun seeing actors you would never expect to be in the same room together talk about their roles from the year. Definitely one of my favorite aspects of the acting campaigns. Since we're kind of starting to get a feel for who some of the major campaigners will be, let me ask, what are your predictions or dream pairings for upcoming season? Here are a few of mine:

-Andrew Garfield (Artificial) and Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning): both played controversial tech moguls in supporting roles

-Renate Reinsve (Fjord) and Inde Navarrette (Obsession): The scream queens of this year's horror smash hits. Even if only one would be campaigning for their respective hit I still think it could be a neat pairing

-Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!): I don't really have a specific reason for this one, I just think these two could have some fun interactions

-Robert Pattinson (Primetime) and Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey): these two were quite literally everywhere this year, it just makes sense. Primetime seems to be Robert Pattinson's awards push but it could be fun to see them talk about doing The Odyssey

-Alternatively, Robert Pattinson (Primetime) and [Redacted] from You Can See Everything could be fascinating because they both worked with the same director and it could lead to some interesting discussions, but I also can see this not happening because it's a huge spoiler and the team wants to keep it a secret for as long as possible.

-And for one bonus Directors on Directors pick, Olivia Wilde (The Invite) and Jesse Eisenberg (The Debut), since they're both actors turned directors working with A24!

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary You Can See Everything arrives in theaters this weekend accompanied by a shroud of mystique as well as glowing reviews. My colleague Alison Willmore called YCSE “the movie of the year.” Rolling Stone’s David Fear pronounced it “simply, unabashedly, unashamedly brilliant.” The New Yorker’s Richard Brody said it’s “strangely, poetically, poignantly beautiful … a movie of dazzling conundrums and vertiginous paradoxes.”

You might think that, given these effusive reactions, You Can See Everything would thus be a natural contender for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar. But that would be overlooking one key factor: To get there, YCSE would first have to be nominated by the roughly 700 members of the Academy’s documentary branch. That’s a taller order than it sounds, because the doc branch is not like other branches. No other branch takes such delight in going its own way, regularly giving a cold shoulder to titles the rest of the industry adores. No other branch’s members prioritize their role as combatants in an ideological battle — in this case, over what a documentary should be. 

https://www.vulture.com/article/you-can-see-everything-oscar-best-pic-nom.html

Obviously it's still early in the year and a lot of things can change but right now I feel these 12 all have a legitimate shot of getting a BP nom and I'm so torn on which 2 films I should take out. The race feels so close I can make an argument for pretty much half of these films for missing. Curious what everyone else is thinking.

Highlighting relevant portions of the article:

After spending the last couple of years under Bajaria focusing on bringing WWE, NFL, MLB and the FIFA Women’s World Cup off of linear and into its content machine, Netflix’s choice of Rice signals a back-to-basics approach.

Rice’s roots are planted firmly in the specialty film world; he has also overseen television content from broadcast to cable to streaming — and he is expected to refocus on film and TV as the core of Netflix’s business.

But perhaps the segment of Rice’s career that may be most relevant to his future at Netflix was his time in the 2000s as president of Fox Searchlight, where he oversaw the release of Oscar-winning films like “Juno,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Sideways.” His most successful partnership formed during his time at Searchlight was with Danny Boyle, who released the acclaimed 2002 horror film “28 Days Later” with the specialty distributor.

Six years later, Boyle, Rice and Searchlight brought the film world “Slumdog Millionaire,” the drama that starred a then-unknown Dev Patel as a young man whose turbulent childhood in the slums of Mumbai serve him well when he appears on the Indian version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”. Earning eight Oscars and $378 million at the global box office, “Slumdog Millionaire” still stands as one of the top five highest-grossing Best Picture winners of the past quarter-century and cemented a relationship with Boyle that has continued to this day, as Rice produced the filmmaker’s 2025 legacy sequel “28 Years Later” and its Nia DaCosta-directed follow-up “28 Years Later: The Bone Temple.”

Rice’s other producing credits since his Disney exit reflect his relationships with established filmmakers, including Alex Garland’s dystopian film “Warfare,” Jason Reitman’s “SNL” origin story “Saturday Night,” Aaron Sorkin’s recent Facebook legal thriller “The Social Reckoning” and Garland’s upcoming adaptation of the acclaimed video game “Elden Ring.”"

Netflix will be leaning on Rice to use his relationship-building skills as the company has seen several high-profile departures over the past few months. David Fincher, whose new film “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” will be released by Netflix in Imax theaters this Thanksgiving, opted not to re-up his production deal with Netflix. Matt and Ross Duffer, who had arguably Netflix’s biggest in-house pop culture success with “Stranger Things,” have left for Paramount while “Marriage Story” and “Jay Kelly” director Noah Baumbach has also joined the Skydance fold via Warner Bros.’ Clockwork label.

Rice will also have to stabilize what has been a confusing film strategy for Netflix, which had pivoted away from the big budget prestige plays of the past like Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” and Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman.” While the company stumbled upon greatness last year when Sony sent it the original animated smash hit “KPop Demon Hunters,” Netflix insiders told TheWrap that the record-breaking success of that film masked tensions between the company’s film chief, Dan Lin, and its awards team led by Lisa Taback.

While Lin has been more frugal, with the occasional exception like Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” Rice’s tastes align more with the highbrow preferences of Taback, who will be trying to push the streamer’s acclaimed Cannes acquisition, “La Bola Negra,” to the Best Picture Oscar that has to date eluded the streamer. There have also been reports that Lin’s approach led to tensions with Fincher and Greta Gerwig, who has been handed one of Netflix’s largest film budgets ever for her adaptation of C.S. Lewis’ “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew.”

Rice’s arrival may soon mean Lin’s exit. Two insiders with knowledge of the Netflix film division told TheWrap that the company has had difficulty hiring film executives because they did not want to report to Bajaria, asking instead to report to Sarandos. Her departure opens the door to a larger pool of executives more willing to work with Rice.

Lin’s right-hand man Doug Belgrad exited the streamer Wednesday as part of the 1,000-person layoffs. A reshuffling of the film division just two years after Lin’s arrival may be in the cards.

If and when that happens, the team that Rice assembles will come in at a time when Netflix is set to wade into a part of Hollywood it once abhorred: the movie theater. “La Bola Negra” will be getting a release in select theaters this weekend with a 45-day theatrical window, a major pivot from the two or three-week windows given to the precious few films Netflix has previously deigned to release on the big screen, like Rian Johnson’s “Knives Out” film “Glass Onion.”

For years, Sarandos has insisted that theaters are not a major part of Netflix’s film plans. But that stance began to thaw last year when the company began its pursuit of Warner Bros. Though that acquisition attempt failed, Netflix is starting to put some of its most high-profile films in theaters for longer periods of time, including “Cliff Booth” and “Narnia.”

How far this theatrical experiment will go is still unclear. Netflix has signaled that it is not going to release a full theatrical slate of 15+ films like Amazon MGM started doing this year.

But theatrical releases have become essential to securing top filmmakers like Gerwig, who made a 45-day window a non-negotiable term when in talks with Netflix over “Narnia.”

Just a day before Bajaria’s exit, Netflix raised eyebrows by dropping the first trailer for Gerwig’s film, which featured Led Zeppelin’s “Stairway to Heaven,” a song that the British rock band had famously never allowed to be used in films or television but relented after a talk with the filmmaker. It was a signal to “Narnia” fans that Gerwig’s take on Lewis’ novels would be unlike any they’ve seen before and provides hope that the film will be the big hit the streamer has been searching for.

One former Hollywood executive’s advice to Peter Rice? Do more of that. Do things that people don’t expect Netflix to do.

“Talent respects and likes [Rice]. He’ll get Danny Boyle over there,” the person said. “But they need to break off some of those billions and spend them on marketing. They’re the CBS of streaming platforms now. You don’t need big swings; you need taste. They need to make Netflix cool again.”"

I'm compiling some of the key quotes across Empire's coverage of the film:

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/dune-part-three-very-different-movie-world-has-changed-exclusive/

In Dune: Part Three – the final part of Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy – the weight of Paul’s transformation will come to bear. Everything has changed.

“The idea was to try to make a movie that will have the same DNA — it’s a Dune movie — but it’s a very different movie,” Villeneuve tells Empire in our world-exclusive Dune: Part Three issue. “It has a different pacing.” It’s not just Paul that’s different – set 17 years after Part Two, he has spent the intervening time exerting his terrifying power as Emperor, re-shaping the galaxy. “We are back with the same characters, but this time the world has totally changed,” says Villeneuve. “Their psyches, their perspective on reality has totally changed, and Paul is living with the burden of what he created, trying to find a way out of this spiral of violence.”

For Chalamet, it offered a chance to evolve Paul Atreides in all-new ways, continuing his descent into darkness. “That phrase ‘anti-hero’ gets thrown around a little too loosely perhaps, but it’s fantastic to chew on as an actor, where it’s not purely redemptive,” he tells Empire. Part Three, he notes, is “its own beast. It’s its own story, its own siege, its own hail of paranoid isolation.”

It was always going to end here for Villeneuve, adapting Frank Herbert’s sequel novel Dune: Messiah for Part Three. Having been firmly in the world of Spice, space and sandworms for three back-to-back movies, it was the right time for the filmmaker to bring the story home. “I said, ‘Maybe it’s a good idea to go back to this project, not out of nostalgia, not because I miss it, but the opposite — I’m tired of it,’” he says. “I want to make sure that I will be severe with the material. That I will not be complacent.” Next up? 007 awaits… “I thought, ‘When it’s done, I need a very powerful rocket to pull me away from Arrakis.’ When I was asked to do the next Bond, I said: ‘Okay, this is what I need.’” Mission: accomplished.

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/dune-part-three-zendaya-chani-deep-pain-exclusive/

Going in to Dune: Part Three, Chani is still reeling with the fallout of Paul’s decision to marry Princess Irulan and ascend the throne, having toppled Emperor Shaddam IV. “I think there is a deep pain, a deep mistrust, a deep betrayal,” Zendaya tells Empire of Chani’s headspace this time around. “In the previous film, she opened herself up to the idea of letting someone in, allowing a space for love or gentleness. Well, we see how that goes. That part of her life is not as present anymore.” In Paul’s possession, Chani’s blue scarf becomes a symbol of their lost love. “Think about things that are just items until someone you know or loved has touched [them],” she says of its totemic value. “Then there’s distance, or there’s loss, and that item is now something much more.”

For Villeneuve, Part Three – among everything else – is effectively a divorce movie, with galactic consequences. “It’s a movie that is talking about something that is very human, which is the idea of a separation, the idea of a divorce,” he explains. “With me, it happened. The idea about the broken family is something that the book gave me the opportunity to explore.” Zendaya concurs: “He brought it up many times,” she says. “He’s like, ‘Oh… been here.’” Expect a final chapter that holds a Gom Jabbar to your heart.

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/robert-pattinson-dune-part-three-look-like-an-alien-exclusive/

Pattinson arrives in Dune: Part Three as assassin Scytale, a shape-shifting ‘Face Dancer’ from the genetic-meddling Bene Tleilax people. Sounds perfect for some Pattinson weirdness, right? “I went into it being like, ‘I want to look like an alien,’” the actor tells Empire, “and initially Denis was saying, ‘Well, I think he’s got to fit in with everybody. I think he just looks like you. He’s normal.’” It was not quite what Pattinson hoped for. “I was a little bit disappointed,” he acknowledges.

But, before the shoot came around, Villeneuve settled on something much more up Pattinson’s alley. What if Scytale had an eerie blankness, with bleached hair and no eyebrows? “It wasn’t even that far before I started shooting; he sent me an email saying, ‘I’ve had this idea of a look,’” recalls Pattinson. “And I’m like, ‘Okay! This is very much not like a normal guy at all.’” The result is the perfect mix of Pattinson’s sensibilities, and Villeneuve’s approach to Frank Herbert’s source material. “It’s like he’s grown in a lab,” Pattinson says of the character. “There’s a little element of a baby about him, which I really, really liked.” Bring on the madness.

Recently we saw Digger, a movie which seemed to be a strong contender for nominations, has reduced its presence in many predictions, but with still some months until the awards season starts, will any other movie fall from the race?

Here are my updated Acting predictions post NYFF:

BEST ACTOR:

1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore
2. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Tom Cruise, Digger
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Dark Horse: Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

Commentary: I'm pretty confident in these five. I have a feeling SPC can sneak in Turturro as they have had success in the past and this is their main priority. While I have Pascal, Pattinson, Jackson getting in at Globes, I don't have them making in here.

BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut
2. Inde Navarette, Obsession
3. Sandra Huller, Rose
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Dark Horse: Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

Commentary: This is sadly not that competitive a category with the only lock being Moore. I have Huller in for Rose over Fatherland and I do think Inde can make it in. I don't have Virginia Efira making it in, not sure 3 international performances will make it in and I'm not sold on AOAS being an Oscar contender across the board.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Andrew Garfield, Artificial
2. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
5. Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra

Dark Horse: Edward Norton, The Invite

Commentary: Despite a deep bunch, I'm pretty confident in these five. I could possibly see a world where Buscemi, Pattinson, Pearce slip in. Other contenders include any of the Digger cast members (Ahmed, Goodman, Plemons). Domingo is popular but Michael would have to be a nominated in other categories for him to slip in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
2. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
3. Penelope Cruz, La Bola Negra
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore
5. Amanda Seyfried, You Can See Everything

Dark Horse: Penelope Cruz, The Invite

Commentary: This is such a bizarre category where the only lock is Hathaway and even then her performance isn't didn't wow me. Morton and Cruz are both showy in one scene performances, Colman could just be a tag along with Scott similar to Hong Chau with Fraser for the Whale. Amanda Seyfried Is a scene stealer in YCSEessentially playing multiple characters.

The full score is out now! (Except for Soldadito Español by Judeline which will be released later on). Includes the 2 Penelope Cruz musical numbers.