You think, things would have been radically different if he was in power or alive?
If Meles never became ill and continued to remain in power then things would've been much better but it wouldn't have been perfect. The Tigray genocide of course wouldn't have happened as the conditions necessary for that to occur wouldn't have formed like they did irl.
A lot of problems from Meles's reign were due to trying to balance his developmental state economic vision for Ethiopia with the multi-national federalist system in Ethiopia and taking imo unacceptable measures reminiscent of past Ethiopian regimes (Especially when it comes to the human rights abuses in the Somali region which is one of the few legitimate fair criticisms made against Meles imo) to try and maintain that balance.
Meles attempted to make Ethiopia a middle income country by 2020 and with how things were going while he was alive this could've been reasonably achieved under his rule. Assuming it was achieved and Meles didn't renege on things he's said before, the country would've begun to decentralize through the full implementation of the constitution and Ethiopia would've had a bright future. However, in the unlikely event that he chose to keep Ethiopia defacto centralized in spite of his economic goal being achieved then issues would've propped up later down the line but probably nowhere near as bad as under Abiy (unless a neoliberal leader like Abiy gained power at some point).
However, in both scenarios (but more so for the second one) the big problem would be what would come after Meles. It was under Meles that the TPLF and the broader EPRDF deteriorated as opportunists, rent seekers and "yes-men" filled the party following the 2001 TPLF split and the degradation process could even be argued to have begun when the TPLF abandoned marxism for "pragmatic reasons" (This was also the time that the TPLF's internal free and constructive self-criticism culture and mechanisms began to degrade) which to be fair could be argued for that particular period since the USSR fell (which was spoken about by TPLF members themselves as a key reason) and American interventionism was a real threat.
Separately, on foreign policy, Ethiopia would've become much closer to China and would've drifted further away from the West since a neo-liberal like Abiy wouldn't have been able to gain power nowhere as easily and reshape the country as he did irl.
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u/Electrical_Study_341 Tigray Aug 05 '26 edited Aug 06 '26
If Meles never became ill and continued to remain in power then things would've been much better but it wouldn't have been perfect. The Tigray genocide of course wouldn't have happened as the conditions necessary for that to occur wouldn't have formed like they did irl.
A lot of problems from Meles's reign were due to trying to balance his developmental state economic vision for Ethiopia with the multi-national federalist system in Ethiopia and taking imo unacceptable measures reminiscent of past Ethiopian regimes (Especially when it comes to the human rights abuses in the Somali region which is one of the few legitimate fair criticisms made against Meles imo) to try and maintain that balance.
Meles attempted to make Ethiopia a middle income country by 2020 and with how things were going while he was alive this could've been reasonably achieved under his rule. Assuming it was achieved and Meles didn't renege on things he's said before, the country would've begun to decentralize through the full implementation of the constitution and Ethiopia would've had a bright future. However, in the unlikely event that he chose to keep Ethiopia defacto centralized in spite of his economic goal being achieved then issues would've propped up later down the line but probably nowhere near as bad as under Abiy (unless a neoliberal leader like Abiy gained power at some point).
However, in both scenarios (but more so for the second one) the big problem would be what would come after Meles. It was under Meles that the TPLF and the broader EPRDF deteriorated as opportunists, rent seekers and "yes-men" filled the party following the 2001 TPLF split and the degradation process could even be argued to have begun when the TPLF abandoned marxism for "pragmatic reasons" (This was also the time that the TPLF's internal free and constructive self-criticism culture and mechanisms began to degrade) which to be fair could be argued for that particular period since the USSR fell (which was spoken about by TPLF members themselves as a key reason) and American interventionism was a real threat.
Separately, on foreign policy, Ethiopia would've become much closer to China and would've drifted further away from the West since a neo-liberal like Abiy wouldn't have been able to gain power nowhere as easily and reshape the country as he did irl.