We will have a 1973/1981 recession very soon because of gas prices

[u/Aiwillstealourjobs]

Hormuz closed. Saudi East-West pipeline out of comission for 1 month minimum. Russia is producing 60% of their normal production due to Ukraine attacks. China not buying oil for now, but when it starts it will increase the price even further. Saudis told Europe that they are not getting any oil in September/October.

Gas prices in Europe are approaching 2.5 Euros/Liter.

In the US they are around 5 Dollars/Gallon.

Renting a tanker costs 1 Million Dollar/day. Just one year ago it was 200k.

Transportation, industry and consumers cannot take this for long.

US household savings rate is down to just 3%. Credit cards maxed out. Auto/student loans at an all time high.

EU gas reserves are just 2/3 of their maximum. By this time last year they were at 80% capacity.

And winter is coming. This means more gas for heating. This means more gas for vehicles.

If gas prices dont normalize and the flow resumes within a month or so, then a recession by the end of this year or the beginning of next year is almost certain.

Then we also have the AI bubble where AI is burning through money and investment is drying up.

Food yields will be lower due to farmers not being able to afford gas and El Nino wrecking agricultural production.

Considered that the US is 40 Trillion in debt and most people are living hand to mouth, a recession could mean a depression very soon.

The Great Depression went from 1929-1933/39

The Greatest Depression from 2026-2039?

[u/shinnyaxolotl]

You think we make it to 2039?

[u/vagabond_nerd → u/shinnyaxolotl]

Only if a massive solar event knocks everything offline for a long time but then you have other things to worry about but the planet would at least survive

[u/CaptZ → u/vagabond_nerd]

The planet will always survive. Its inhabitants are another story.

[u/2quickdraw → u/vagabond_nerd]

You don't need a massive solar event to knock everything offline, all you need is foreign enemy States.

[u/lowrads → u/2quickdraw]

Another Carrington event would be a lot more thorough though. There's apparently no way to harden grids against them. The supply chain for replacement components is both long and slow, and already backlogged.

[u/2quickdraw → u/lowrads]

TRUE.

[u/LittleGreenPlants → u/shinnyaxolotl]

Def not

[u/occasionalopossum → u/shinnyaxolotl]

You seriously believe were completely wiped in a decade?

[u/Conscious_Tomato7533 → u/occasionalopossum]

It’s a bit of an exaggeration. Even if (will if we continue to do nothing) 3c by 2050. Humanity will continue to scrape something by. But it will be a major worldwide collapse. If that future happens, I wouldn’t be surprised if humanity does not see the end of the century

[u/ozzokiddo → u/occasionalopossum]

If there’s 100,000 people on the planet again is it any different? We’d lose everything and almost everyone. Including probably you 😂😂😂

[u/occasionalopossum → u/ozzokiddo]

I have no illusions about how I fair when things kick off in earnest