Collapse is not just "inevitable", it's already happening.
The collapse of the biosphere has been unfolding for a couple of centuries. The collapse of Holocene climatic stability and collapse of the American Empire have been in process for at least two decades. The collapse of industrial civilization is, similarly, already well underway.
Most people simply can't see slow motion collapse because they've never studied the rise and fall of civilizations and, therefore, don't know what to look for.
Well said. Even without historical studies, people who observe their surroundings, nature and the growing economic imbalances might be able to given enough time. Many are youngish and so their perspectives aren't as complete.
As collapse intensifies and quickens; the destruction of the environment, climate change, massive inequality are easier to see unless, of course, you are part of the 1% who live in a different reality altogether. Actually, collapse is going from a slap in the face to a punch in the guts now.
Oh, I fully expect one or both of those (slap in the face or punch to the gut) for me, too.
Those of us who are "privileged" or who fancy ourselves to be insulated or immune from the worst parts of collapse will soon have a rude awakening. This decade for sure. Quite possibly with the next few years.
Yes, the difference being those who are collapse aware are mentally prepared at the least. I live in the US; everything is in fail mode, from basic services to stunning economic gaps, to a growing despondent or violent population.
There is personal collapse which isn't to be minimized but the broader picture of environmental, the threat of wars be it resource wars or what have you and the real threat of democracy and republics failing here and elsewhere.
You bring up some valuable points, but its important not to conflate them, but recognize their interrelationships. There are real hard collapses like the biosphere that come when they come. Then there are soft collapses like the American Empire's swan dive into a dumpsterfire of its own making. Energy and economy and complexity are also seperate spheres that touch one another, but aren't always as hard-coupled as we tend to think. Americans are tempted to see multiple fronts closing in and say the end is neigh, but some of these fronts are much closer yet solvable and some are more distant yet intractable.
By soft, I mean the American Empire was never required nor desired by most earthlings. It won't be missed and more than a few will celebrate. While any change will be difficult for many, its transformation into something else as better or worse depends on your perspective. Time will tell.
By hard I mean there are no substitutes for a functional biosphere. When essential elements fail let alone cascading repercussion we will see exactly how hard those requirements were, perhaps more to the point is we WON'T. ;)
Managed degrowth can still "fix" this. It's collapse by another name but the descent and endstates are far more desirable than fighting for BAU all the way down to protect wealth and power. I'm being cheeky with the term fix, but I stand by it as an optimal pathway that can still be pursued.
I wish you the best on #3. I just don't see it. Having spent the last decade studying the rise and fall of civilizations, and ecological overshoot, there's no historical precedence for believing in "managed degrowth", nor that any predicament can be solved or fixed.
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u/MBDowd Recognized Contributor Jan 26 '22 edited Jan 26 '22
Collapse is not just "inevitable", it's already happening.
The collapse of the biosphere has been unfolding for a couple of centuries. The collapse of Holocene climatic stability and collapse of the American Empire have been in process for at least two decades. The collapse of industrial civilization is, similarly, already well underway.
Most people simply can't see slow motion collapse because they've never studied the rise and fall of civilizations and, therefore, don't know what to look for.
Re "Understanding Our Predicament", see "Collapse in a Nutshell" (33-min) and "Overshoot in a Nutshell" (31-min)
Both (and others like them) are accessible here: https://postdoom.com/resources/