r/CFB • u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran • Nov 18 '25
Analysis Quad Wins for AP Ranked Teams (2025 Wk 12)
Using SP+ ratings, I used a rough approximation of cutoffs by quadrant by team rating for neutral site and then adjusted for 2.5 points home field advantage. The rating cutoffs are pretty arbitrary and quad W/L is sensitive to where it's set.
Quadrant definitions
| Quadrant | Rating | Rk - Home | Rk - Neutral | Rk - Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quad 1 | >=16.1 | 1-12 | 1-18 | 1-23 |
| Quad 2 | 8.4-16.1 | 13-31 | 19-40 | 24-49 |
| Quad 3 | -1.9-8.4 | 32-68 | 41-75 | 50-82 |
| Quad 4 | <-1.9 | 69-136 | 76-136 | 83-136 |
Quad W/L by team
| AP Rk | Team | Record | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 10-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| 2 | Indiana | 11-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | 10-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Georgia | 9-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Ole Miss | 10-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 10-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| 6 | Oregon | 9-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 8-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 8-2 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| 10 | Alabama | 8-2 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| 11 | BYU | 9-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 12 | Vanderbilt | 8-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| 13 | Utah | 8-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| 14 | Miami | 8-2 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| 16 | USC | 8-2 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| 17 | Texas | 7-3 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 |
| 18 | Michigan | 8-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 19 | Virginia | 9-2 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| 20 | Tennessee | 7-3 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
| 21 | James Madison | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| 22 | North Texas | 9-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 6-0 |
| 23 | Missouri | 7-3 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| 24 | Tulane | 8-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| 25 | Houston | 8-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-1 |
Note: FCS is excluded in above
12
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
Quad Wins using Massey Composite
| AP Rk | Team | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | QW Score | QW Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 19 | 4 |
| 2 | Indiana | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 20 | 2 |
| 3 | Texas A&M | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 22 | 1 |
| 4 | Georgia | 2-1 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 19 | 4 |
| 5 | Ole Miss | 1-1 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 20 | 2 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 17 | 7 |
| 6 | Oregon | 0-1 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 10 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 2-2 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 9 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 0-2 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 10 |
| 10 | Alabama | 2-1 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 18 | 6 |
| 11 | BYU | 1-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 17 | 7 |
| 12 | Vanderbilt | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 15 |
| 13 | Utah | 0-2 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 16 |
| 14 | Miami | 1-0 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 13 |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 9 | 19 |
| 16 | USC | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 10 |
| 17 | Texas | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 10 | 16 |
| 18 | Michigan | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 13 |
| 19 | Virginia | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-2 | 3-0 | 8 | 21 |
| 20 | Tennessee | 0-3 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 27 |
| 21 | James Madison | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 22 |
| 22 | North Texas | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 16 |
| 23 | Missouri | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 22 |
| 24 | Tulane | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Houston | 0-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 22 |
2
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u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
In addition to # of W/L, also have a "score" for quad wins based on assigning value for each W/L
Quad wins established using team ratings per SP+ adjusted for home field advantage.
Once quad wins and losses are established, I assign an arbitrary weight to quad wins (+4 for quad 1 down to +1 for quad 4) and quad losses (-1 for quad 1 to -4 for quad 4)
Quad wins rank = ranking of total points
This week I've also broken out win score and loss score to see impact
| Team | AP Rk | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Win Score | Loss Score | Net Score | Rk - Quad Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 3 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 1 |
| Indiana | 2 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 3 |
| Georgia | 4 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 21 | -1 | 20 | 3 |
| Ole Miss | 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | 20 | -1 | 19 | 5 |
| Alabama | 10 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 21 | -3 | 18 | 6 |
| BYU | 11 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 19 | -1 | 18 | 6 |
| Texas Tech | 6 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 20 | -3 | 17 | 8 |
| Oregon | 6 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 17 | -1 | 16 | 9 |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 18 | -3 | 15 | 10 |
| Notre Dame | 9 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 17 | -2 | 15 | 10 |
| USC | 16 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 15 | -2 | 13 | 12 |
| Michigan | 18 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 14 | -2 | 12 | 13 |
| Vanderbilt | 12 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | -2 | 11 | 14 |
| Miami | 14 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 15 | -4 | 11 | 14 |
| Texas | 17 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 15 | -5 | 10 | 16 |
| Georgia Tech | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 12 | -3 | 9 | 17 |
| Tulane | 24 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 4-0 | 13 | -4 | 9 | 17 |
| Utah | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 19 |
| Virginia | 19 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-2 | 4-0 | 14 | -6 | 8 | 19 |
| James Madison | 21 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 6-0 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 19 |
| Missouri | 23 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 11 | -3 | 8 | 19 |
| Illinois | -- | 0-3 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 11 | -3 | 8 | 19 |
| Tennessee | 20 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 24 |
| North Texas | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 6-0 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 24 |
| LSU | -- | 0-4 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 10 | -4 | 6 | 26 |
| Arizona State | -- | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 13 | -7 | 6 | 26 |
| Navy | -- | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 26 |
| Houston | 25 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 4-1 | 10 | -5 | 5 | 29 |
| Washington | -- | 0-2 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 11 | -6 | 5 | 29 |
| Arizona | -- | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 11 | -6 | 5 | 29 |
| Cincinnati | -- | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 11 | -6 | 5 | 29 |
| Iowa | -- | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | -5 | 4 | 33 |
| South Florida | -- | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 10 | -6 | 4 | 33 |
| Nebraska | -- | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 10 | -7 | 3 | 35 |
| Louisville | -- | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 13 | -10 | 3 | 35 |
| SMU | -- | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 35 |
| San Diego State | -- | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5-0 | 9 | -6 | 3 | 35 |
| Pittsburgh | -- | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | -7 | 2 | 39 |
| Wake Forest | -- | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 10 | -8 | 2 | 39 |
| Minnesota | -- | 0-3 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 8 | -6 | 2 | 39 |
| Western Kentucky | -- | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 6-1 | 8 | -6 | 2 | 39 |
| Iowa State | -- | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-0 | 11 | -10 | 1 | 43 |
| East Carolina | -- | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 9 | -8 | 1 | 43 |
| Memphis | -- | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 9 | -9 | 0 | 45 |
| UNLV | -- | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7-1 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 45 |
| Army | -- | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | 45 |
| Kentucky | -- | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 8 | -9 | -1 | 48 |
| TCU | -- | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 8 | -9 | -1 | 48 |
| Old Dominion | -- | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 6 | -7 | -1 | 48 |
| New Mexico | -- | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | -8 | -1 | 48 |
| Fresno State | -- | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | -9 | -1 | 48 |
| Missouri State | -- | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 6 | -7 | -1 | 48 |
19
12
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
Quad Win score using different systems:
AP Team FPI Sagarin SP+ Kford Avg Rk 3 Texas A&M 26 28 24 26 26.00 1 2 Indiana 24 25 23 24 24.00 2 4 Georgia 23 23 20 23 22.25 3 1 Ohio State 21 21 20 22 21.00 4 5 Ole Miss 19 22 19 19 19.75 5 10 Alabama 19 20 18 20 19.25 6 11 BYU 18 18 18 17 17.75 7 6 Texas Tech 18 17 17 17 17.25 8 6 Oregon 16 19 16 17 17.00 9 8 Oklahoma 17 18 15 17 16.75 10 9 Notre Dame 15 14 15 15 14.75 11 12 Vanderbilt 14 15 11 14 13.50 12 16 USC 13 12 13 13 12.75 13 18 Michigan 13 13 12 13 12.75 13 17 Texas 12 12 10 12 11.50 15 14 Miami 10 14 11 10 11.25 16 15 Georgia Tech 9 12 9 9 9.75 17 13 Utah 10 11 8 10 9.75 17 -- Illinois 9 9 8 10 9.00 19 24 Tulane 9 8 9 8 8.50 20 19 Virginia 7 11 8 8 8.50 20 23 Missouri 8 10 8 8 8.50 20 21 James Madison 8 9 8 8 8.25 23 20 Tennessee 7 9 7 8 7.75 24 -- LSU 6 10 6 6 7.00 25 -- Arizona State 7 8 6 7 7.00 25 22 North Texas 6 6 7 6 6.25 27 -- Washington 6 7 5 6 6.00 28 25 Houston 6 6 5 6 5.75 29 -- Navy 5 6 6 5 5.50 30 -1
u/lukaeber BYU Cougars • Virginia Cavaliers Nov 18 '25
This makes much more sense than whatever it is the committee is doing.
27
u/jim_shushu BYU Cougars • Oregon State Beavers Nov 18 '25
Cool breakdown OP, thanks for doing these! Going to go tell everyone now that BYU has a resume comparable to what Ole Miss has.
4
u/pouchman27 BYU Cougars Nov 18 '25
Only better because of the additional Quad 2 win. I wish the committee would put some value on road vs home.
15
Nov 18 '25
[deleted]
7
u/trex1490 Georgia Bulldogs • Marching Band Nov 18 '25
This is why I dislike ESPNs SOR metric. It projects the odds that an average top 25 team would have your record against your schedule, but it doesn’t take into account how badly you beat/lost to those teams. It’s way more impressive to blow out a really good team and vice versa with getting blown out by a really bad team, but to SOR a win is a win and a loss is a loss. Also, because it’s the odds that an average top 25 team would have that record, it doesn’t punish top teams for bad losses because it’s not that unlikely that a top 25 team would lose to a top 40 team.
5
u/kleisz Indiana Hoosiers Nov 18 '25
Agreed. I feel like people like to cite SOR like it’s some statement of fact, when in reality it’s just one way to measure the quality of a team’s resume.
In my opinion, resume SP+ does a better job of quantifying resume since it does look at margin of victory and is from the perspective of a top 5 team.
3
u/lukaeber BYU Cougars • Virginia Cavaliers Nov 18 '25
Margin of Victory is such an overrated stat that favors strong offensive teams over strong defensive teams. Imagine you have a defense that shuts every team out and an offense that is only average. Are you worse than a team that scores 60 points every week but also gives up 40 on defense?
Also, I don't think we shouldn't incentivize running up the score on teams with lesser talent.
3
u/FakeBobPoot Michigan Wolverines Nov 18 '25
You either win games or you lose them. The committee should not be making value judgments as to how you went about it.
Beyond just strong defensive teams, you have some coaches who put their third-stringers in when the game is in hand, while others don't. Why should a team be punished for getting their backups some experience in a game that was never in doubt? You have teams that heavily skew toward running the ball on offense. Why should a team that wins reliably by staying on schedule and draining the clock be treated as inherently inferior to a team that wins by throwing the ball and stopping the click?
I'm not saying margin of victory should never be considered, but it should be far, far down the list of tie-breaker criteria for teams that have the same record.
1
u/NickSabansCreampie Alabama • Third Saturday in … Nov 20 '25
You either win games or you lose them. The committee should not be making value judgments as to how you went about it.
You mean like Tweedle Dum going up on stage Tuesday night to rant about Alabama's run game as justification to put us all the way down at 10?
2
u/trex1490 Georgia Bulldogs • Marching Band Nov 18 '25
I agree that Margin of Victory isn’t the end all be all, but these resume metrics definitely should use something to measure how close the games were. EPA/play differential, Connelly’s postgame win expectancy, yards per play differential, or some combination of those
-5
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
Yup, A&M should get “punished” for barely beating a bad South Carolina team, but won’t with those metrics
2
u/StevvieV Seton Hall • Penn State Nov 18 '25
Should they though? Isn't the point of playing games is to win? At the end of the day I rather reward the teams for what they did, not how they looked during it.
2
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
We’re in agreement, reward the teams for what they do
A&M played god awful football and barely survived a bad team by 1 point
This wasn’t a blowout that looked sloppy, it was a poor performance against a 3-7 team
That should not be treated the same as Tennessee beating their 3-7 opponent by 31
1
u/FakeBobPoot Michigan Wolverines Nov 18 '25
Counterpoint: Yes it should. The objective is to win football games. If it were determined that the actual objective is to maximize scoring over the course of a season, we'd see an extremely boring coalescence around specific styles of play and it would make the sport less entertaining. On top of that, it's plainly unfair. Wins and losses. Not style points.
The committee should care about, in priority order:
- How many wins do you have?
- Did you win a conference championship?
- Who did you beat?
- Who did you lose to?
In dealing with tiebreakers related to those criteria:
- Who won the head-to-head (if available)?
- Who had the better overall strength of record (i.e., strength of wins, not strength of schedule including losses)?
- In extremely rare cases, after the above have been exhausted and teams are still neck-and-neck:
- Transitive matchups: W/L
- Margins of victory in transitive matchups
- Overall average margins of victory
1
u/TheFAKEcampbell Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 19 '25
And that style was old big 12 football, it was funny
1
u/FakeBobPoot Michigan Wolverines Nov 18 '25
Fully fucking insane take that a team should be "punished" for winning a game in a way you didn't like.
-1
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 19 '25
No it’s insane to think that almost losing to a shit team should be treated the same as dominating them
2
u/FakeBobPoot Michigan Wolverines Nov 19 '25
I just noticed your username and now it all makes sense lol
1
0
u/trex1490 Georgia Bulldogs • Marching Band Nov 18 '25
Eh it’s hard with big comebacks like that. On one hand, they looked terrible for a half against a not great team. But also they looked extremely impressive in the comeback. I think it kinda turns to a push
2
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
Only the SEC gets credit for an “Impressive” comeback against a 3-7 team they never should’ve been down so big to
Ohio State would get clowned on for being down 30-3 at half to UCLA
Call me crazy but dominating a 3-7 team with your backups is better than almost losing to them
1
u/trex1490 Georgia Bulldogs • Marching Band Nov 18 '25
That’s exactly what I just said lol. They looked terrible for a half, then they dominated for a half. So I don’t think they should be rewarded how impressive they looked in the comeback because of how bad they played to be in that hole in the first place.
1
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
Ok then so we’re in agreement
All this nuance is lost in a computer poll that doesn’t even look at margin of victory
5
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
I like it as a riff on SOR... or a simplified visualization of the data
SOR, Resume SP+, Game Control, etc. all have their puts and takes as well. The single data point can be really challenging when you compare similar teams and it's like "this team is 4th in SOR" and "this team is 7th in SOR" but if you change the methodology slightly the inverse might be true.
0
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
Well this is exactly why computer polls or metrics rankings aren’t as “objective” as people think
Data can lie very easily if you’re not careful with it, and one should always look for tradeoffs and limitations
-2
u/MixonWitDaWrongCrowd Oklahoma Sooners • Arkansas Razorbacks Nov 18 '25
We need to inflate Indianas schedule somehow as they’re afraid to play teams outside the Big10.
2
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
Temple, Kent State, Illinois State
Why do you think OU should only have to play 9 P4 teams but IU should play 10?
2
u/MixonWitDaWrongCrowd Oklahoma Sooners • Arkansas Razorbacks Nov 18 '25
Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan didn’t have problems ducking competition.
0
u/Inconceivable76 Ohio State • Arizona State Nov 18 '25
This is very similar to how basketball does it.
9
u/HokiesforTSwift Virginia Tech • Transfer Portal Nov 18 '25
Thanks for the work you do here. I've always appreciated it.
31
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
Ive been told, repeatedly, that Indiana aint played nobody. It is impossible Indiana has the most quad 1 wins.
38
u/soonerwx Red River Shootout • Oklahoma Nov 18 '25 edited Nov 18 '25
...wait, who are they? Oregon and?
Edit: Oh, it uses SP+, where Penn State is 19th, and Texas and Michigan are 21st and 22nd. Sure.
9
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
if you do MC instead of SP+, then it's only one Quad 1 Win
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1p0dsfu/quad_wins_for_ap_ranked_teams_2025_wk_12/npib1ke/
16
u/SteemieRayVaughn Ohio State • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
Nice! We get one of those SEC Quality wins using the "well they have talent!" argument.
8
u/soonerwx Red River Shootout • Oklahoma Nov 18 '25
Texas is 4th in talent composite, Penn State 10th, Michigan 11th. That shouldn't be compensating so hard for what Penn State actually put on the field vs. the other two, should it? Idk, SP+ is usually solid but every year it has a couple flops that it just will not give up on.
5
u/StevvieV Seton Hall • Penn State Nov 18 '25
Penn State also has played Oregon to OT, Indiana down the wire, lost at Iowa by 1. Thats why its metrics are high. Because even though it lost it played near equal to a few of the best teams, and dominated its non confernce games.
Only 2 games out of 9 game would do any real damage to Penn State's metrics.
7
u/soonerwx Red River Shootout • Oklahoma Nov 18 '25
This is what irritates people when it’s the SEC though. Penn State isn’t bad because they played Indiana close. Indiana’s good because they beat Oregon. Oregon’s good because they beat Iowa. Iowa’s good because they beat Penn State. And the best OOC opponent in the whole little circle is 6-4 Iowa State, who beat Iowa.
5
u/Terminal_BAS Team Meteor • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
You either die the B1G, or live long enough to see yourself become the SEC.
0
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
That was Iowa state before they got crippled by injuries, on the road in a rivalry game.
SEC people seem to enjoy hyping up their big wins over Tennessee and Missouri, when the best win between the two combined is Kansas.
1
u/tightspandex Georgia Southern • Georgia Nov 18 '25
The best win for either is probably Mississippi State who has taken a beating in conference but sports a good win over Arizona State. The best win Kansas has (vs 7-3 Fresno State) is comparable to State's second best win (@ 7-3 Southern Miss).
-1
u/Even_In_Arcadia8 Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
Penn State isn’t bad because they played Indiana close. Indiana’s good because they beat Oregon. Oregon’s good because they beat Iowa. Iowa’s good because they beat Penn State. And the best OOC opponent in the whole little circle is 6-4 Iowa State, who beat Iowa.
Now imagine this every season for 20 years except actual AP voters use it as their logic. That's why people hate the SEC.
1
u/soonerwx Red River Shootout • Oklahoma Nov 18 '25
SEC hype prior to 2024 is not my circus, not my monkeys, but they did win an awful lot of titles for it to all be manufactured
2
u/Even_In_Arcadia8 Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
You understand that if you get things like three rematch opportunities that no other conference gets, by nature you’re going to get more titles, yes? It’s all self feeding.
If OSU and UM rematched in 06 and UF never gets the first, does LSU see the opportunity in 07? If Oklahoma State gets a shot like Florida did in 2011 instead of LSU-Bama 2 and wins, how does that affect the SEC narrative?
You are correct that the SEC did a lot of proving it on the field… because they were the ones given the opportunities.
1
u/SecondBreakfast814 Indiana Hoosiers Nov 18 '25
Winning titles doesn’t say anything about conference strength, all it does is say they had 1 really good team that won it all
-3
u/StevvieV Seton Hall • Penn State Nov 18 '25
No what irritates people about the SEC is its fans then claiming a team like Penn State would easily win or make the playoff if it got to play in any other conference
2
10
u/Impudicity2001 Miami Hurricanes • Florida Gators Nov 18 '25
Penn State doing the Lord’s work for 6 teams
7
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
PSU only counts as a quad 1 win for 3 teams
3
u/z6joker9 Ole Miss Rebels Nov 18 '25
Which teams are their quad 1 wins?
0
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
@ Oregon, @ Iowa, @ PSU, Illinois being the quad 2 win
10
u/WheatonsGonnaScore Oregon Ducks Nov 18 '25
Yeah, but Indiana hasn't even played LSU
20
5
u/Conn3er Texas A&M Aggies • Texas Longhorns Nov 18 '25
Everyone has told me LSU is a bad program, so not like that means much.
2
-1
u/rendeld Michigan • Grand Valley State Nov 18 '25
You should have almost lost to 3 win SCAR instead of 4 win PSU. What were you thinking.
9
u/JumboFister Texas A&M Aggies Nov 18 '25
It’s amazing how we only see what we want to see or we pick out specific opinions. Last week I didn’t see anyone saying Indiana should drop and this week I see everyone saying A&M should drop. Humans are funny things
5
u/UnusualHound Indiana Hoosiers Nov 18 '25
Last week I didn’t see anyone saying Indiana should drop
Oh you didn't? Because I sure did. Tons of Aggie flairs in that thread and in other threads after Indiana eked it out at one of the toughest places to play in the country.
5
u/rendeld Michigan • Grand Valley State Nov 18 '25
Im not saying anyone should drop, I actually think both PSU and SCAR are good teams with bad records. They both have incredibly talented players on their teams and have had extremely tough losses to very good teams (Oregon and Indiana, Alabama and TAMU). They kind of really mirror each other, and both TAMU and Indiana grinded out tough wins and showed resilliency in both games. I was just making a joke about how no one takes Indiana seriously.
1
u/SecondBreakfast814 Indiana Hoosiers Nov 18 '25
Bro there were SO many A&M fans saying we should drop because of our PSU game. Were you living under a rock?
-6
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
Ive been told the "blue chip ratio" and "talent composite" are the most important indicators of a team. PSU is #4 in number of blue chips, and #10 in talent composite. Obviously, title contenders
10
u/notkevin_durant Ohio State • College Football Playoff Nov 18 '25
How insecure can you be?
1
u/rendeld Michigan • Grand Valley State Nov 18 '25
Come on man, if anyone even suggests that OSU has any weaknesses at all, or that say their offensive line hasn't been tested yet this year (they havent) 15 OSU fans will jump in the comments and downvote them to hell and tell them they are blind. There is no fanbase more insecure than OSU about their team.
1
u/notkevin_durant Ohio State • College Football Playoff Nov 18 '25
I’m talking about a specific person. You are generalizing an entire fanbase. One is not like the other.
2
u/rendeld Michigan • Grand Valley State Nov 18 '25
They're not wrong, those are great pre-season indicators of a team, but not much more than that.
10
u/MikeConleyIsLegend Ole Miss Rebels Nov 18 '25
Texas Tech the only playoff team with a Q3 loss or worse
23
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
It's cuspy. Arizona St loss is Quad 2 by some other definitions.
8
u/PodricksPhallus Texas Tech Red Raiders • Border Conference Nov 18 '25
Objectively true.
I don’t think that the Leavitt and Tyson led team we played against on the road with our backup QB was the same quality team they are now. Tyson hasn’t played since and Leavitt only played one more week after.
The committee has said about as much.
4
2
u/patrickclegane Georgia Tech • Delaware Nov 18 '25
Arizona State seems closer to a Q2 team than a Q3
2
u/superworriedspursfan Missouri Tigers • WashU Bears Nov 18 '25
ASU definitely should be quad 2 for me.
1
u/igonnawrecku_VGC James Madison • Penn State Nov 18 '25
If Tulane or UNT make the playoff they’ll join that list
2
u/SaintsSooners89 Red River Shootout • Oklahoma Nov 18 '25
Yes! Here we avoid the dreaded cursed #8 ranking, #10 and still in the CFP, stop the count!!
2
u/Hmm-him-131 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Nov 18 '25
I’m lost — how does Oregon have 2 quad 1 wins by this metric? They haven’t beat anyone in the top 25 here
1
u/Mydogsblackasshole Oklahoma • Red River Shootout Nov 18 '25
OU should be 2-2 Q1, Texas was a neutral site game against #17
1
1
u/Humakavula1 Wayland Baptist • Texas Tech Nov 18 '25
Doesn't Texas Tech's win vs Utah count as a quad 1 win? Since it was on the road?
1
u/Dewot789 Oklahoma Sooners • Vanderbilt Commodores Nov 18 '25
I'm a little confused why OU has a quad 2 loss. It says for neutral games the cutoff for quad 1 is 18. Texas is 17. Is that being counted in the stats as a home game for OU even though it's a neutral?
1
u/Apbuhne Illinois • Illinois State Nov 18 '25
Is USC not quad 1? Illinois should be 1-3
8
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
No, just missed it: OP says quad 1 is top 12 team for home games, USC is 13 in SP+
Quad 2 seems to be too big of a gap. #13 at home is a whole different beast than #49 on the road
5
u/CheaterSaysWhat Ohio State Buckeyes Nov 18 '25
This is why quads are a flawed data metric
Treating USC and Kansas as the same is ridiculous
2
u/superworriedspursfan Missouri Tigers • WashU Bears Nov 18 '25
i strongly agree even if this would really help with inflating mizzou's status as a team, a win vs USC is 10x more impressive than a win vs Kansas.
3
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
don't disagree in principle but it's a 7.4 point difference between SP+ #13 USC at home vs SP+ #49 Kansas on the road
there's a flattening in the middle on SP+ ratings where the 2.5 point home field advantage swing matters a lot for expected W/L and expected MOV
-2
u/Apbuhne Illinois • Illinois State Nov 18 '25
They’ll do anything to diminish IU and OSU quality wins
4
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
my personal vendetta assisted by data
1
u/Apbuhne Illinois • Illinois State Nov 18 '25
Where is Illinois 3rd loss coming from then? Washington is quad 1?
3
u/tmart12 Georgia Bulldogs • /r/CFB Poll Veteran Nov 18 '25
Illinois
Quad 1: @ Indiana L, vs Ohio St L, @ Washington L
Quad 2: vs USC W
Quad 3: @ Duke W, vs Rutgers W, vs Maryland W
Quad 4: vs WMU W, @ Purdue W
Quad 1 cutoff is 16.1 rating (18th rank). In SP+, Washington is a 15.7 rating. Add 2.5 points for away and they're an 18.2 rating adj for home field advantage. USC is 18.5 rating. Subtract 2.5 for home and they're 16.0 rating adjusted for home field advantage.
1
1
u/Aaprobst88 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Nov 18 '25
Hey at least Illinois counts as quad 1. USC has 2 losses to Quad 1 teams.
0
u/Aggravating-Card-194 Indiana Hoosiers • Texas Longhorns Nov 18 '25
I was told the SEC is much deeper than every other conference. So why dont they have more Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins?
-1
u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Nov 18 '25
The only thing that bothers me is they try to make it sound like the B1G is a one team conference (OSU) and that IU and Oregon would be chumps in the SEC (would actually be favored to win the SEC betting odds) and that there is no one else of remote quality beyond that. As if USC, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, Illinois dont all exist.
The only reason the conferences look unbalanced is because every school thats fringe top 25 gets ranked in the SEC, while every fringe top 25 team in the B1G is left unranked
20
u/Alkibiades415 Georgia Bulldogs • Stanford Cardinal Nov 18 '25
By all the metrics we seem to be able to muster, the top 10 seems more or less unanimous (with some noise between las tortillas and the ducks which will work itself out in the next two weeks).