AP Ranked Teams vs SOR - 2026 Wk 4

[u/tmart12]

FPI SOR

SOR:Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule.

FEI SOR

Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS), the number of losses a team one standard deviation above average would expect to have against the schedule (GLS), and the number of losses an average team would expect to have against the schedule (ALS)

Strength of record ratings (EWD, GWD, AWD) are the difference between a team's schedule strength ratings and its actual losses.

Top 25

AP Rk	Team	FPI SOR	FEI EL SOR	FEI GL SOR	FEI AL SOR	Avg. SOR
1	Texas	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Georgia	8	6	6	10	7.5
3	Notre Dame	12	9	9	5	8.8
4	Miami	14	13	19	23	17.3
5	Ohio State	30	27	26	31	28.5
6	Indiana	15	12	13	15	13.8
7	Alabama	3	4	2	2	2.8
8	Florida	2	2	3	4	2.8
9	Ole Miss	6	25	8	8	11.8
10	BYU	25	11	15	27	19.5
11	LSU	20	35	16	9	20.0
12	Texas Tech	9	14	18	20	15.3
13	Utah	13	8	7	6	8.5
14	Iowa	5	3	5	7	5.0
15	Oregon	18	36	22	16	23.0
16	Mississippi State	4	5	4	3	4.0
17	Tennessee	35	29	33	40	34.3
18	USC	29	31	35	24	29.8
19	Oklahoma State	32	32	36	36	34.0
20	Houston	44	50	53	48	48.8
21	SMU	37	47	41	33	39.5
22	Boise State	31	32	32	30	31.3
23	UCLA	16	15	20	11	15.5
24	Kentucky	11	24	14	22	17.8
25	Missouri	42	49	43	32	41.5

Top 25 by SOR

AP Rk	Team	FPI SOR	FEI EL SOR	FEI GL SOR	FEI AL SOR	Avg. SOR
1	Texas	1	1	1	1	1.0
7	Alabama	3	4	2	2	2.8
8	Florida	2	2	3	4	2.8
16	Mississippi State	4	5	4	3	4.0
14	Iowa	5	3	5	7	5.0
2	Georgia	8	6	6	10	7.5
13	Utah	13	8	7	6	8.5
3	Notre Dame	12	9	9	5	8.8
--	Duke	10	10	12	13	11.3
9	Ole Miss	6	25	8	8	11.8
--	Cincinnati	19	7	11	12	12.3
6	Indiana	15	12	13	15	13.8
12	Texas Tech	9	14	18	20	15.3
23	UCLA	16	15	20	11	15.5
--	Wisconsin	7	23	10	26	16.5
4	Miami	14	13	19	23	17.3
24	Kentucky	11	24	14	22	17.8
--	Pittsburgh	22	16	21	18	19.3
--	Wake Forest	17	26	17	17	19.3
10	BYU	25	11	15	27	19.5
11	LSU	20	35	16	9	20.0
--	Virginia Tech	23	17	25	21	21.5
--	Nebraska	21	17	24	29	22.8
15	Oregon	18	36	22	16	23.0
--	James Madison	26	17	28	25	24.0

[u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Duke, Pitt, WF, VT are all missing from the AP. I wonder if there’s something that connects them all. What the heck could it be…. 🧐

[u/SirMellencamp → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Nebraska and Cincinnati are both undefeated and missing from the AP as well

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009 → u/SirMellencamp]

Cincinnati needed a miracle to beat Miami (OH). Pitt had their backups in the third quarter against them.

[u/zensunni82 → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

The same thing applies to UC's easy win over Boston College that VT needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat.

[u/Pitt_Is_It_2009 → u/zensunni82]

Fair point 

[u/SpreaditOnnn33 → u/zensunni82]

Eh, that game was played in a downpour on the road, whereas UC got BC at home in perfect conditions, so not an apples to apples comparison at all

[u/zensunni82 → u/SpreaditOnnn33]

UC probably doesn't belong in the top 25, but I think I could make similar arguments for any of the teams in the 20-30 range. Ultimately early season rankings, especially edge cases, are mostly based on whatever narrative folks want to tell themselves and it will sort itself out in the next few weeks.

[u/Hokie_Jayhawk → u/zensunni82]

Genuine question.

Did you watch any of the VT-BC game?

[u/zensunni82 → u/Hokie_Jayhawk]

No. And I was not trying to disparage VT, I'm rooting for your team and Franklin. Pulling out the win to avoid the upset is what good teams do. I was just drawing the comparison to UC doing so when back to back fluke plays had them down 14 in the first minute against Miami. Some games everything goes wrong and you have to find a way to win.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/Pitt_Is_It_2009]

So in other words there is context for why a team is ranked or not ranked

[u/kdbvols → u/SirMellencamp]

Yes, and the context is that the AP voters think the ACC is worse than literally any actual metric that exists

[u/SirMellencamp → u/kdbvols]

Right because the AP is not a metric ranking.

[u/kdbvols → u/SirMellencamp]

And the eye test is useful for individual teams, saying the ACC is bad based on vibes alone when they dominated last bowl season and have the second best OOC record of the P4 and every metric says these are good teams is insane

[u/SirMellencamp → u/kdbvols]

Well I didnt say the ACC was bad. Aside from Duke, I dont think the other nonranked ACC teams have done anything to make their current non ranking unjustified plus they are all really close to being ranked. Just win games.

[u/kdbvols → u/SirMellencamp]

The fact the AP is consistently underranking ACC teams relative to their resume - not 1 or 2, but 4 teams - means that the national media is inherently saying the ACC is bad though. That's what the whole point of this comment chain is

[u/SirMellencamp → u/kdbvols]

Ok but you understand the AP is 62 voters in media across the US. Do you think they get on a group chat Sunday morning and all decide together where to rank teams? I mean just win games and the ranking will come. I would have Duke right now at 25 and Mizzou out.

[u/theexile14 → u/SirMellencamp]

The challenge is there are a host of teams in the lower end of the rankings that have zero impressive wins. We're still early.

Some SEC teams like Alabama might have 3 P4 wins, but Tennessee and Missouri have exactly 1. The Tennessee win is over a 1-3 GT team that just lost to Stanford and the Missouri one is over a 1-2 Kansas team. So even if you want to argue B1G and SEC wins count for more....that's not what they have.

In contrast, both VT and Pitt have two P4 wins, and Pitt has a win over 3-1 UCF.

[u/SirMellencamp → u/theexile14]

Like you said, its still early. Just win your games and pay attention to the metrics instead of the AP poll if thats what you like.

[u/Halvey15 → u/SirMellencamp]

Just win games

See that's not a good answer though when there are one loss teams in front of them. Three of the four schools above are all going to have to get to 5-0 just to crack the top 25, then 6-0 to get to the top 20. Then they lose one game and are back out of the rankings. Then all of a sudden you have a 9-1 team ranked #15 because they have to claw their way back again.

[u/Dialectic_Emptiness → u/SirMellencamp]

Too much red in the uniforms so that’s understandable. Don’t rank them until they win a national title.

[u/da90 → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Interesting that those schools are congregated around the Atlantic Coast… 🤔

[u/brickmadness → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

They’re not in the SEC. 

[u/Dialectic_Emptiness → u/brickmadness]

VAR checking..

[u/Electromotivation → u/brickmadness]

Whoa! You aren’t allowed to say it out loud!

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/brickmadness]

Looks like that wouldn’t help

The sec should be 1-4 on the ap poll right now 

[u/Klightgrove → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Yea it's called Miami keeps them unranked so if any upset them in the championship they can still insist a ranked ACC team should also get in along with the now contractually obligated champ.

[u/DadBod_FatherFigure → u/Klightgrove]

And that’s supposed to be an advantage? When the SEC gets to stack up “ranked” wins names on preseason poll inertia + ranked teams that turned out to trash?

[u/citrus1330 → u/Klightgrove]

never knew Miami had so much influence with all the AP voters

[u/BlueSentinels → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Once they get into conference play they will move up the rankings. Yeah Duke is 4-0 but it also hasn’t played a team that’s above .50 win rate yet. Same with VT. Wake forest played Miami but it hasn’t beat a team with a .50+ win rate yet. If Louisville comes into conference play and looks as good as people were expecting wake will rise and if Duke and VT go 5-0 they will break into the rankings as well.

We’re only 4 games in so these things will level out. It also doesn’t help that two “cornerstone” brands of the conference in FSU and Clemson seem to be at their lowest point in over a decade leading to an overall perception of the conference as being weak.

[u/reddit-canes → u/BlueSentinels]

Like, you know this chart is basically a strength of record chart, so, while you're saying that about Duke, all the charts, you were supposed to have read in order to make that comment, well, they disagree with you. You're basically arguing that water is not wet, even though, you're standing in the rain.

[u/BlueSentinels → u/reddit-canes]

A strength of record chart with only 4 games having been played is not worth much imo. At this point the rankings are more concerned with who you have played and how much you have won by. Once more conference games get played these will balance out like I said. If you’re mad about me stating that the perception of the ACC is hurt by two of its most historically dominant programs looking like ass, then I don’t know what to tell you. That’s just the way it is.

[u/kdbvols → u/BlueSentinels]

If you’re mad about me stating that the perception of the ACC is hurt by two of its most historically dominant programs looking like ass, then I don’t know what to tell you. That’s just the way it is.

We're not disagreeing with you, but we're saying it's stupid. When Vandy looked good last year, the narrative wasn't "lol they lost to Vandy" it was "wow, Vandy is a lot better than normal". We're just asking for Wake and Duke to be treated like Vandy.

Additionally, Pitt and VT are big football brands that have been inconsistent recently, but are good historically (VT in particular has the 3rd most appearances and wins in the ACC CG behind Clemson and FSU)

[u/kdbvols → u/[deleted]]

Was there a championship game before then though? Because I’m pretty sure it was started after yall joined, so not super relevant to this stat

[u/BlueSentinels → u/kdbvols]

Definitely get the Vandy comparison and I agree with you there. As far as comparing VT and Pitt to Clemson and FSU though for brand recognition on a national level….

[u/kdbvols → u/BlueSentinels]

That's a good point - I brought up brands when I shouldn't have, but I was originally responding to "historically dominant programs" more

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face → u/kdbvols]

If they played Vandy’s schedule, they could be treated the same.

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face → u/BlueSentinels]

Stop making reasonable points. College football is about arguing over bullshit.

[u/Mister-Beardy-Face → u/Dialectic_Emptiness]

Shitty analytics?