r/CFB • u/CFB_Referee /r/CFB • Sep 14 '21

Discussion Betting Discussion Thread

Discuss spreads, over/unders, and prop bets for this week's games.

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Feel free to ask any questions you have about betting in college football, or check out this post explaining how spreads, money lines, and over/under works.

Here are this weeks lines

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u/Iraqi-Jack-Shack Florida • Mississippi State Sep 14 '21 edited Sep 14 '21

$200 on Alabama to win, $200 on Alabama to cover

If we get beat but keep it close, half my ticket is paid for

If we get blown out, my whole a good chunk of my ticket is paid for

17

u/rabbichase SMU Mustangs • Big 12 Sep 14 '21

$200 for Bama to win would only pay out +$25. Bama is a -800 favorite right now.

You'd need to bet $800 for Bama to win to cover half the ticket if Florida covers, but loses.

2

u/Iraqi-Jack-Shack Florida • Mississippi State Sep 14 '21

Well at least I could get lunch

The spread is +/- 115 so that's a $170 return...so about half the ticket paid for then between both. Better than nothing

8

u/TheNastyCasty Texas Longhorns • Red River Shootout Sep 14 '21

I just wouldn't even make the money line bet. The extra $25 doesn't seem worth it for significantly more exposure if Florida manages to win.

Both Bets Just Spread
Bama covers $195 $170
Bama wins, but doesn’t cover -$175 -$200
Florida wins -$400 -$200

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u/Iraqi-Jack-Shack Florida • Mississippi State Sep 15 '21

The extra $25 doesn't seem worth it for significantly more exposure if Florida manages to win

Not sure I understand this, but I'm not looking to make money per se. Rather I'm just looking for some consolation money back in my pocket for what I expect the outcome to be

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u/TheNastyCasty Texas Longhorns • Red River Shootout Sep 15 '21 edited Sep 15 '21

It just doesn't make sense to bet $200 on Alabama to just win (ML).

If Alabama wins and covers the spread, you would get $195 instead of $170. Do you feel that much better about $195 than $170? You're getting a sizable payout either way.

If Alabama wins and doesn't cover the spread, you lose $175 instead of losing $200. In both cases, you're losing money. I guess you can feel a little less bad about only losing $175 instead of losing $200? Florida still lost the game and you still lost ~$200.

If Florida wins, you lose $400 instead of $200. You're risking an extra $200 in this scenario for... what exactly? The first two scenarios you feel exactly the same regardless of if you just make the spread bet or make both the spread and ML bet and in the third scenario it's significantly worse to make both bets, so what do you gain by making the ML bet?

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u/Iraqi-Jack-Shack Florida • Mississippi State Sep 15 '21

Thanks for explaining, and usually I would agree with you if this were for a game I had no personal stake in. But this is 100% an emotion-based gamble, and has nothing to do with maximizing profit/minimizing risk. If that makes sense.