r/CFBAnalysis • u/mvpeav Georgia Southern • Alabama • Sep 01 '25

Analysis Monte carlo results

Since yall have been on this journey with me I figured I would share the results of my Monte carlo simulator! With 1 game left to play Id say it has gone really well hitting ATS over 70% which is fantastic!!

Cant swear that itll last forever but for now the heater feels really good!

Thursday Boise State -6 ❌️ o63❌️ Ohio +14 ✅️ o47.5✅️ Wyoming -7 ✅️ o50.5❌️ ECU +11.5 ✅️ u60.5✅️ Jax St +18.5 ✅️ o55.5 ❌️ Buffalo +18 ✅️ u44.5 ✅️ Cincy +7.5 ✅️ u53.5 ✅️ Miami OH +17.5 ✅️ u39✅️

Friday App State -4.5 ✅️ and u51.5✅️ Wake -17.5❌️ and u51.5✅️ WMU +21 ✅️and o49.5❌️ Auburn -2.5 ✅️and u57.5❌️ GT -4 ✅️ and o54.5 ❌️ CMU +14.5 ✅️u51.5✅️ UNLV -10.5 ✅️and u60.5✅️

Saturday noon Ball State +17.5 ❌️ o48.5❌️ Tennessee -13.5 ✅️o52✅️ FAU/Maryland is a legit push on 14 will not be taking it but o61❌️ Ohio State PK ✅️u47✅️ Tulane -4.5✅️ u46✅️ MSST -14✅️ o60.5❌️ Toledo +10✅️ u48✅️ ODU +24 ✅️ o48.5✅️

Saturday afternoon Marshall +38.5 ✅️u52⚪️ Bama -13.5 ❌️ UVA -13.5✅️ o56.5❌️ UTSA +23.5 ✅️ u58.5❌️ Michigan-34.5 ❌️ o48✅️ UTEP +6 ❌️ u60.5✅️

Saturday night LSU +4.5✅️ o56.5❌️ Ole Miss -32.5 ✅️o60✅️ Eastern Michigan +14❌️ u56.5❌️ Louisiana-10❌️ o48❌️ Georgia Southern -1❌️ o48✅️ Zona -15.5✅️ u54.5✅️ Cal PK✅️ u48.5❌️ CSU +21.5✅️ u52.5❌️ Utah -5✅️ u49❌️

Sunday SC -7 ✅️o51.5❌️ Miami +3✅️ o50.5✅️ Added bonus play of Miami ML ✅️ if you're feeling brave

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u/CharitableFanFound Sep 01 '25

That’s impressive, mad respect

2

u/mvpeav Georgia Southern • Alabama Sep 01 '25

Thanks so much! Im very excited to see how it performs the rest of the season!

3

u/CharitableFanFound Sep 01 '25

Looking more into your strategy- I understand how you did it. Would I ever want to try to do this? Absolutely not.

Props to you, you put in an absolutely insane amount of work to get this far.

2

u/mvpeav Georgia Southern • Alabama Sep 01 '25

It started as just a fun exercise to try and understand how vegas created their prop lines. Then I got a very rough version running for week 0 with about 5 or 6 hours of work and it performed well enough that it peaked my interest to really invest some time into it. Last week Sunday - Wednesday I probably spent alot 20-30 hours trying to tweak and refine it to how it works now, plus another 5-7 hours working on building the website from scratch.

Never did I think id be hitting ATS north of 70% but that was a very nice surprise and validation to my efforts! Obviously I don't expect to hit at a 70% clip all season but it worked well enough that Ill definitely keep this going all season as an exercise to see how good it actually is!