r/CFBAnalysis • u/NonZero-Chance UCF Knights • Syracuse Orange • 4d ago

Analysis Choose-your-own-path ranking model: With and without MOV

Greetings,

I'm sharing a new rankings model I've been working on for upwards of a decade on and off. I finally published it. Please forgive the corny backronym.

So I created a model that uses strength of schedule and other factors, but gives you the option to view the results with and without margin of victory factored in.

My main goals were this:

  • Main inputs are simple: teams, scores, site, and at what point in the season the game is played
  • Everyone starts the season fresh. No carry-overs.
  • Opponents' and opponents' opponents' schedule strength is a factor
  • Strength of Schedule is cumulative and normalized to the number of games a team plays in a season.
  • Conference is not a factor (due to everyone not playing everyone in a conference)
  • Margin of victory is capped (two standard deviations, all OT games are standardized to 1 point MOV)
  • How many games you play matters in SOS (wear and tear is a thing)
  • FCS losses get penalized severely (AS THEY SHOULD)
  • Road wins get a boost, home losses get a ding

The results are below. Home page displays current rankings, refreshed every day.

I also have a page with results from previous seasons, going back to 2013. I'm adding to those as I get the opportunity. I'm also looking at comparing pre-bowl results to see how accurate the model is at predicting the playoff field (or showing where the committee got it wrong).

Looking forward to your feedback!

https://cosmosrankings.com/

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u/Insurance-Guy1986 3d ago

SEC fans not going to like it, model doesn’t reflect the “gauntlet” of SEC conference play. Joking aside I do think LSU and Oregon should be top 25 teams, despite their 2 losses.

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u/NonZero-Chance UCF Knights • Syracuse Orange 2d ago

I appreciate it!

Observations for what the model is telling me on those two teams:

LSU's two losses came to the two best teams they played. None of their four wins are all that impressive to the formula, so that's what's dragging them down.

Oregon is an interesting case given that their losses are not *too* bad and their wins (FCS Portland State aside) are pretty good. They are the top 2-loss team right now. I think they might get a nice boost this week if they can beat Nebraska on the road.