r/CanadaPolitics • u/Domainsetter • 9h ago
Days Before Alberta’s Referendum, Support for Remain Rises
https://abacusdata.ca/days-before-albertas-referendum-support-for-remain-rises/•
u/Former-Physics-1831 Unreconstructed NeoLib 7h ago
Assuming the polling is remotely accurate, the primary difference between Albertan and Quebecois separatism at the moment is that the former is a very ideologically narrow movement, representing just the right wing of the right wing party.
That naturally limits its appeal, unlike Quebecois separatism which spills across other ideological divides
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u/fatigues_ Liberal Party of Canada 4h ago
One of those groups' grievances are based on language and culture and not feeling a part of English Canada; the other is based on grievances fueled by FOX News and Twitter.
They are NOT the same -- and will not be treated as the same by the ROC.
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u/Brodney_Alebrand Orange Liberal 4h ago
The Québécois are a distinct national minority with a distinct language and history.
Albertan separatists aren't. They're a small collection of rural anglo-Canadians that hate the cities.
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u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 8h ago
I would be interested in having a discussion with the "undecided 8%" to see what makes it so hard to decide on something that seems so simple to me: Do you like being Canadian or not? Being Albertan and Canadian at the same time is not a dichotomy, just like being Quebecer and Canadian isn't one either.
In the end, you're always a group part of a bigger one and containing smaller ones. There is no single homogeneous indivisible group (even a family is divisible). Every separatist group wants to dissociate themselves from a bigger group, but refuses to accept that they themselves could then be separated into smaller groups as well (that applies to both Alberta and Quebec).
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u/TheRC135 6h ago
Maybe it's people who don't understand the deliberately misleading questions?
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u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 5h ago
Yeah, maybe, but I mean these statistics are about a survey prior and not on the wording of the question at the time of voting.
Maybe you're right though. The "undecided" portion went down after time.
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 6h ago
"I don't actually want to leave Canada, but I want to send a message to Ottawa. I'm not sure how I'll vote yet".
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u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 5h ago
Yeah, but that's not how you send a message. That's more like throwing a brick through a window with a warning letter attached to it.
At that point, they already sent the message a long time ago, but they're angry that the other side did not completely agree with the message and didn't give them everything they wanted.
"Sending a message" in this context means "going nuclear".
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 5h ago
I'm not suggesting I agree with that mindset, I'm saying there absolutely ARE some people who think that way.
Just as there are lots of pro-Palestine voters down south, who thought that staying home would "teach a lesson" to the DNC in 2024.
It's not a rational mindset, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
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u/Effective-Clue6205 Quebec 6h ago
24% is pretty good for an option that is not well organized politically. Québec independantism did not appear out of nowhere, it started as a grassroot movement that got more profesionnal over time.
I'm pretty sure that a political party could be born out of that. It would certainly help that movement get more organized and active on the political scene. At the very least, if they want to grow, they need their own political party, like we have in Québec with the Parti Québécois, Québec Solidaire and the Bloc Québécois.
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u/thisismyfirstday 6h ago
The 24% is primarily a subset of the existing UCP base and not a broad spectrum support. But I agree in that, realistically, the UCP should not exist as a single party. They represent a merger of the centre/right and the right after the NDP won (when they conservative movement was divided into the PCs and Wild Rose). The UCP's previous leader stepped down after he realized he could no longer control the right wing branch, and this whole referendum is Smith's play to placate the right and try and hold on to power.
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u/ialo00130 1h ago
Why form a new party when you have a stranglehold on the already-governing party? The Separatists wil never let that go until they are forced out by their own party.
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u/Independent_Ad8268 Albertans for the NEP 5h ago
Multiple separatist parties have shown up at both the federal and provincial level and they’ve all gone nowhere, despite support for separation actually being slightly higher back in the 2019 Wexit period.
You have to remember that only a minority of “separatist” voters actually want an independent country. They’re mostly voting for leverage, and a CPC government would largely give them what they want.
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u/McNasty1Point0 Ontario 9h ago
There are almost certainly more people paying attention now + the federalist side has the momentum with Carney and others in the province.
It’s not surprising and it won’t even be remotely close. Put this non-issue to bed on Monday, Alberta.
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 8h ago
The plan has been the same from Day 1, and will unfold the same whether the vote goes 51-49 or 91-9.
Separatists lose huge
They claim it was rigged
They position themselves as a persecuted minority, and demand foreign assistance.
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u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 8h ago
Except that a "persecuted minority" only has value in international law if you can demonstrate a common cultural/ethnic identity in comparison to the majority...which is not the case here.
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 8h ago
You didn't hear me say it was reasonable, or realistic.
But it absolutely is their plan.
They imagine running the Crimea playbook.
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u/SuperLynxDeluxe Independent 5h ago edited 5h ago
That's not the Crimea playbook though.
The Crimea playbook is to skip to step 3, then the foreign assistance organizes a rigged referendum to legitimize the annexation. You wouldn't want to have a referendum that loses by wide margins beforehand because that defeats the narrative.
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 5h ago
I'm talking about once the vote is lost; then they claim they're being oppressed and need outside 'liberation'.
It's an adaptation of the Crimea playbook when you're operating within a country that has a long-established rule of law.
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u/SuperLynxDeluxe Independent 5h ago
The adaptation doesn't make sense. If the US wanted Alberta, they wouldn't want a non-binding appetizer referendum that shows that Alberta does not want to separate. What comes after, they take it by force? Why would they need or want a referendum showing Alberta does not want to separate before doing that?
There's no logic there. The separatists would claim to be oppressed just as much if there were no referendum, and it's more convenient for the hypothetical liberation too.
It only works when it's done after the "liberation".
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 5h ago
Go back and read it again.
"The vote was rigged, we're going to go save those poor people" is right on brand for the people we're faced with now.
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u/SuperLynxDeluxe Independent 5h ago
And again, why does the US need that excuse? Who does it serve? MAGA doesn't need it, Democrats won't buy it, neither will Canadians including Albertans, Europe will ridicule it, international community would side with whatever is in their best interest regardless.
The referendum doesn't provide any additional leverage to the US. They always could claim to "liberate the oppressed Albertans", they don't need a referendum for that.
The brand of the people we're dealing with is to take out president during night raids and open threats of annexation against allies, not multi-year plans of subterfuge.
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u/MTL_Dude666 Liberal 8h ago
Well, they'll have 2/3rd of the province against them.
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u/jello_sweaters Ontario 7h ago
Most of Crimea didn't want to change nationalities either.
Again, my thing is not that this will work, my point is that the separatists absolutely think that they're going to end up getting what they want no matter how the actual vote goes.
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u/GraveDiggingCynic Independent 6h ago
They’re going to ours Smith, install one of their own and push hard to force the issue before the voters put an end to this.
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u/FizixMan Ontario 2h ago
It’s not surprising and it won’t even be remotely close. Put this non-issue to bed on Monday, Alberta.
Looks like it'd be close for UCP supporters though. According to this poll, a majority of UCP voters would vote to leave, whereas for NDP voters it's a non-starter:
Among current UCP supporters, 52% would vote Option 2 and 44% remain. By comparison, 93% of NDP supporters would vote remain.
I hope UCP puts it to bed, but if a majority of them ends up voting to leave, I wonder if separatism would continue to spread through the party over the coming years. Maybe a future leader will flirt with it again.
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