r/CombatFootage • u/MilesLongthe3rd • Sep 02 '26
UA Discussion Ukraine Discussion/Question Thread - 02/09/2026+
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u/Roo_Rammin_Russell 19h ago
All due respect to Ukrainian defense co.s but they rly should come up with a better name for their new OWAD.
Giving an aircraft the same name as one of the most famous and recognizable aircraft in the history of aurcraft (B-2) is lame and will cause confusion
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u/coveted_retribution 14h ago
This is one of the most perplexing complaints I've seen in this forum since 2022. I'm not saying that in a bad way.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 18h ago
I am sorry that one of Ukraine's hundreds of drones has a name you don't approve of.
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23h ago
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 10h ago edited 10h ago
It's sanctions that didn't take effect yet. It literally changes nothing, the US hasn't imposed new sanctions on Russia since Trump took office, almost two years ago now. And it hasn't exactly been going well for Russia so idk how more of the same is going to change anything 😂 the fact pro ru is blowing their load over it gives the impression things are truly desperate yall need any PR win you can get it seems.
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u/Sluggybeef 16h ago
How can economic lifeline and assured victory be in the same statement.
Say Russia takes all of Ukraine tomorrow wont we experience the most vicious ugly insurgency ever seen?
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u/TestingHydra 1h ago
They're hasn't exactly been a lively insurgency in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine.
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u/Cardborg 10h ago
Also, an "economic lifeline" from a bill that hadn't yet gone into effect... so things will continue exactly as before.
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u/Roo_Rammin_Russell 19h ago
Why are you summarizing news that literally everyone here heard a week ago?
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20h ago
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u/read-the-rules 20h ago
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u/Sluggybeef 1d ago
Musk gave the White house the idea to slow down starlink and only backpedalled when he saw the adverse consumer reaction towards it.
The US is an absolute disaster right now and is burning through any remaining goodwill
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u/Lord___Rictor 23h ago
You've not seen a disaster yet. Once the AI bubble pops you can say goodbye to the economy and hello Great depression.
You'll be on bended knee before the Russian Federation. You're going to find out what the term real economy means. You've known nothing but a fugazi all of your life.
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u/BocciaChoc 1d ago
I have to say the shift to hitting DCs by Ukraine at such an interesting time has been great to see, I wonder how many more DCs will go up, it isn't clear at a high level but those targets are so much more impactful long term
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1d ago
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u/read-the-rules 1d ago
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1d ago
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u/read-the-rules 1d ago
Howesterino,
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 2d ago
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2110643534717964440
BREAKING: Ukraine’s Navy says it destroyed six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers at the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast overnight. The strike was carried out with Ukraine’s Neptune coastal missile system.
Russian milbloggers like Fighterbomber confirm the attack and the Ukrainian success but do not comment on the number of destroyed targets.
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u/jason_abacabb 2d ago
Hitting fighter jets like that with a subsonic cruise missles... id love to see what happens when they start pumping out ballistic missles.
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2d ago
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u/read-the-rules 2d ago
ch0wn3d,
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2d ago
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u/BocciaChoc 2d ago
I guess he's accepted he's losing the midterms, which is fair, oh boy you know I have to thank Trump in a way, it's good to see Europe actually moving onto looking after itself, the kick in the arse hurt but it was absolutely needed.
And now the gloves are off, Ukraine doesn't need to worry about upsetting the orange man, the data centers, the oil refiners, the big targets are free, planes they've purposefully avoided hitting? free, early warning systems? free. Now that Ukraine is making long range systems in-house and will move to European alternatives for things like starlink out of necessity? It'll be very interesting after Trump becomes a lameduck.
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u/coveted_retribution 3d ago
SpaceX imposed new speed restrictions on Starlink satellite terminals used by Ukrainian forces overnight on Oct. 14, disrupting several military missions, Ukrainian activist and former Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Sternenko reported. Presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov, known as Flash, subsequently confirmed the restrictions.
"I confirm that overnight SpaceX introduced speed restrictions on Starlink terminals while in motion," Beskrestnov, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on defense technology, wrote on Telegram.
According to Beskrestnov, the restrictions affect the military-grade Starshield service, with terminals now losing connectivity when moving faster than 100 mph (160 kilometers per hour).
"Ukraine's Defense Forces received no advance warning of this restriction, which resulted in several missions being disrupted. Clearly, this cannot be a coincidence and is connected to the current political situation," Beskrestnov said.
Sternenko had earlier reported that Starlink terminals began losing connectivity at speeds above 160 kilometers per hour.
"Last night, restrictions were imposed on Starlink terminals. The connection began dropping at speeds above 160 kilometers per hour while moving. As a result, several important missions were disrupted," he wrote
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u/LiveInLayers 3d ago
Wild to see a private corp dictating military capability so openly. The west sure has fallen.
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4d ago
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u/read-the-rules 4d ago
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u/Collumniser 4d ago
Has there been a drop in Combat uploads in last 24 hours?
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u/TestingHydra 4d ago
No, there's just been another purge of posts. Mainly Israeli related and Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
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u/Cardborg 5d ago
With the ongoing chip shortages I think Yandex might actually be fucked for a good long while.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “When our strikes hit Yandex data centers, the amount of hate, division, and provocations on social media decreased because the number of bots dropped. It’s pretty clear where those bots were coming from.”
More please.
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u/Derquave 6d ago
With all of the relatively slow strike drones Ukraine is using on Russia, I’m surprised Russia hasn’t tried revitalizing the 2S38 or a similar vehicle. I know they a have limited production capacity but a system like the 2S38 seems like it would do a much better job at intercepting slow moving strike drones than the mobile fire groups and far cheaper than a system like Pantsir and it’s based on the BMP-3 chassis so it’s not like they would need to build a whole new production line for the entire vehicle
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u/CatsAndCapybaras 5d ago
Looks like the 2s38 is still in production, no?
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u/Derquave 5d ago
If it is, it has to be extremely limited in scale. Plenty of footage comes out of Ukraine and Russia and well there have been some reports of it being at the very least stationed in Ukraine there have been no confirmed reports of it actually in combat. It’s a big war into big countries so there’s always a chance that something has slipped under the radar but other rare or experimental Russian equipment that has been fielded has tended to be verifiably recorded.
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u/coveted_retribution 7d ago
What is the chance that the US executes a Special Maduro Operation to force a regime change in Ukraine
/s
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8d ago edited 8d ago
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 8d ago
There it is folks!
Russia says Ukraine is going to face a terrible winter every single winter. Still waiting for Europe to eat their pets.
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u/Ra1nCoat 9d ago
has russia essentially ran out of their armored vehicles, or just refusing to use them. im pretty sure they have
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 7d ago edited 7d ago
All the other answers don't look at the big picture which can be misleading so here goes:
Yes Russia has more active units than at the start. Yes Russia has also run out of armor. And yes drones make their remaining armor less effective.
Basically active units is just what's been pulled from storage and refurbished plus the trickle of new hulls. The storage is what's run out, Russia has no more armor to refurbish. They cannot replace heavy losses quickly and so you see very little armor being used. When it is used drones destroy it. They have burned through their Soviet stockpile with years of heavy losses mostly vs drones, earlier atgms. They activated units throughout the war as their refurbishment caught up to losses. But now that is gone.
So they have more units technically "active" , but can't use them because storage is depleted and so none of the active units can be replaced after getting droned. So they are held in reserve nowhere near the front.
Then there is the topic of light armor like mraps, Russia has almost none and never did, and still make almost none. Ukraine still makes HEAVY use of these vehicles because they constantly get replacements. This is most easily seen in both sides footage, most Russian footage is of armored vehicles getting hit and very few troop casualties and now even robotic ground vehicles.
Meanwhile most Ukrainian footage is of russians on foot or on unarmored vehicles getting blown to pieces.
Russia uses scores of unarmored vehicles and light infantry because that's all they can replace, but the Russian narrative is that it's cuz drones made armor less effective which is only half true and not the whole picture.
Meanwhile ukraine still uses light armored vehicles to save its troops lives, because they can still replace them. And hardly uses heavy armor for the same reason, no more real replacements.
If either side got a thousand more heavy armor pieces given to them, youd see that side using them again until reserves ran out. Like a thousand bradleys to Ukraine, you'd see bradleys again.
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u/Ra1nCoat 7d ago
your answer is the best one out of all of them
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 7d ago
No problem it's a topic I followed closely. I went back and cleaned it up a bit.
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u/Codex_Dev 7d ago
They are keeping some of the best equipment held back to be used in Moscow for the Rosgvardiya police. (Due to the Wagner coup)
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u/MintMrChris 8d ago
Not ran out, but they've lost such a huge number that simple availability is going to be an issue. Would they want to use them anyway given the mines, artillery and drone spam...
They are rare but we do see reports of them now and then, their usual infiltration tactic of trying to get some soldiers to a random position in the grey zone but this time via some apc or tank + cage...usually ends the same way with everything and everyone getting the drone treatment (I guess its better than trying the same with golf buggies and scooters)
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u/HumpheryShittington 8d ago
Russia currently has more armored vehicles in service then they did at the start of this war. The overall quality of your standard tank or APC is lower but there are more of them. Most of the large outdoor storage areas they had before the war are depleted, but a lot of those vehicles have been moved to BTRZ's and are in various stages of disrepair.
There is also new build production that adds approximately 280-360 T-90M, 400 BMP-3, 600 BTR-82 (This number is largely reliant on refurbishment and modernization of older BTR-80 hulls, and is not sustainable in the long term) to the RU armed forces every year.
So yes, they are refusing to use them. In 2024 Ukraine shaped its drone and artillery forces to specifically counter armored assaults and the Russians thus changed their doctrine to focus on maneuver by infiltration and the associated battlefield dynamics from mid 2025 on-wards. Put simply it is cheaper and more effective to use disposable infantry than to lose significant quantities of armored vehicles.
This does not mean that armored vehicles are irrelevant or obsolete and both sides are working very hard to find solutions to curtail the dominance of drones over armor. Once either, or both, sides inevitably find a reliable hardkill counter to small-UAS armored vehicles will return to being a critical part of the battlefield. The Russians are very much counting on this and still continue to pour massive amounts of resources into improving and expanding their armored forces, in the hopes that they can return to maneuver warfare.
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u/Swiper-73 8d ago
Building new T-90s in such quantities....sure about that? You make it sound as though the battlefield is saturated with equipment just waiting to be used, but this is not the case. The refurbables have all been returned and shipped, they are now relying on repairing battle damaged equipment + a few new builds in limited numbers
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u/HumpheryShittington 6d ago
Sorry the upper end of that estimate include T-90a refurbishment and upgrade. HUR assessed 250 a year T-90m new built hulls in September last year, extrapolate current numbers as you wish.
The Russians are not relying only on battle damaged equipment and new builds, this is likely based on prior assumptions that didn't take into account how desperate they are for hulls. Vehicles that were once considered unrecoverable like the T-72a/Ural now have engine and parts production lines restarted. There are also still significant numbers of tanks that are sitting in the storage area's of BTRZ's waiting to go through the refurbishment pipeline (Please don't misinterpret this as meaning every vehicle in a BTRZ or any T-72a/Ural can or will be refurbished). There are however big question marks around how quickly these refurbishments can be made.
So no, the Russian armored force is not saturated with equipment and it definitely can't afford to use them as they did in 2024. But there still remains a significant armored force that would be useful if the Battlefield dynamics change.
People look at the Russian adaption from armored assaults to infiltration and think that it's simply because meat is cheaper than metal (which is true to some extent), but it was also largely because they didn't work. If you sent 20 guys in the form of a column of 2 tanks and 3 BMP's they usually just all got raped and destroyed in one go, if you send 20 guys on foot 90% of them would get killed and a handful would infiltrate into the rear and cause some degree of problems for the Ukrainians. You've got a pretty similar amount of personnel losses but importantly you haven't loss any expensive armored vehicles.
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u/Lord___Rictor 13d ago
Most don't follow politics here but a big change is coming for Ukraine support.
Latest votes show Brazil is moving right along with Germany and France.
Soon Ukraine will be alone to face the enraged bear.
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u/Joene-nl 12d ago
😂
Magics, always here for a good joke
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u/CatsAndCapybaras 11d ago
poor guy has been quite active lately. I bet he's part of a foreign influence campaign for the US midterm elections.
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12d ago
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u/read-the-rules 12d ago
Express_Cherry5773,
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u/TheDirtyOnion 12d ago
How much military support is Brazil providing to Ukraine now? Oh right, nothing. I think the Republicans in the US losing both houses of Congress will more than make up for any potential loss of Brazilian non-aid....
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u/Lord___Rictor 12d ago
Even democrats are tired of Ukraine.
You don't mention France or Germany. Hilarious.
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u/SomewhatHungover 11d ago
They’re tired of Russia, of course the idiots there think sinking ships and burning western warehouses will kill support for Ukraine. It’s kind of understandable why they’d think this way, their society is run by the mafia and they think everyone else will capitulate.
At some point they’re going to step over the line and do a ‘Pearl Harbor’ and find out.
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u/LoreDeluxe 13d ago
So...will a devastating plague rampaging through Russia help the war for Ukraine? At the very least, I imagine the social unrest alone could send Russia into a death spiral.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 13d ago
The first satellite images seem to support the claim of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and Russian fighter aircraft were truly destroyed at the military airfield in Khanskaya.
https://x.com/avivector/status/2106828406205661433
Satellite images ofKhanskaya Air Base as of October 4, 08:28 UTC On the night of October 4, a Su-34 and a Su-35S were destroyed at Khanskaya Air Base.
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u/Lord___Rictor 13d ago
Ukraine is taking the worst beating right now with depleted interceptors and world support waning as the war moves toward year 5, yet people on here talk as if victory is at hand.
Just hold on a little longer...
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u/Swiper-73 13d ago
It's a bit of both. They are taking a beating from the widened air attacks, but simultaneously they are inflicting massive damage to Russian energy facilities and airfields, and have regained loads of territory on ground, reducing direct enemy threats to fairly critical parts of the frontline
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u/UpbeatPhilosophySJ 13d ago
You're conversing with a puppet who's been talking like this for literally years.
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u/BocciaChoc 13d ago
/u/Lord___Rictor is magics number xxx
He's just a pro Russian poster, perhaps his way of keeping out of being on the front line himself is pushing posts like these, who knows.
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u/Lord___Rictor 13d ago
Kyiv bridge hit in further Russian drone attack as German chancellor makes surprise visit
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u/BocciaChoc 13d ago
https://apnews.com/article/kyiv-russia-ukraine-war-merz-drones-89bb8d2a97cc09d01a316723d08d2fb3
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth more than 1.3 billion euros ($1.5 billion) during a visit to Kyiv on Sunday, as Russia escalated its attacks on Ukrainian cities.
What an unusual thing to do, encourage Germany to give more to Ukraine, but Russia does seem to struggle on the cognitive side.
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u/Lord___Rictor 13d ago
Oh wow a whole 1.5 embarrassing.
His people hate him and he won't last much longer.
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u/BocciaChoc 13d ago
Russia burns an estimated $680 million to $900 million each day to fund its war against Ukraine.
Fair point, for Russia, that's like 1.5 days? oh boy
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 13d ago
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2106383775890313601
Putin claimed Russian frontline gains in September 2026 so far from reality as to resemble hallucinations. Putin claimed that Russian forces seized 1,301 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine in September 2026 alone — 2.5 times more than the claimed Russian gains in previous months. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers in September 2026. Russian forces suffered a net loss of 175.18 square kilometers in September 2026 even when accounting for Russian infiltrations into areas over which Russian forces have not gained control. Putin’s absurd claims continue to present a fictional battlefield reality that supports the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray Russian advances as sweeping across the battlefield.
ISW cannot assess whether Putin knows that the figures he is presenting are false or if he is accepting fictional frontline data presented to him as the result of the culture of lying that is deeply ingrained in the Russian military command structure.
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u/Lord___Rictor 14d ago edited 14d ago
Kyiv to start building pontoon bridges over Dnipro – Kalashnyk
Talk of building tunnel.
Mayor says civilians are now fucked in Kyiv. People are evacuating before winter.
France and Germany are both shifting politically and support for Ukraine will become more and more difficult.
Russia put forward a massive new military budget, they're gearing up for longer and more brutal war.
I guess the final death blow is even the propaganda slowed down on here. The budget must have ran out.
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u/HumpheryShittington 13d ago
Whenever I see a post that says "Kyiv will freeze and Ukraine will collapse this winter" I always think of that Japanese soldier that kept fight for 30 years after WW2. This is the 5th winter I have heard this exact same talking point. It's going to be another extremely difficult winter for Ukrainian civilians but it's not going to make them cave to Russia's maximalist demands nor is it going to facilitate a breakthrough on the frontlines. It's just going to make peoples life miserable.
The rest of this post is just Russian hopium slop.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 18d ago
A Tu-95 bomber "crashed" during a training flight; only one crew member survived, according to Russia's Ministry of Defense
A Tu-95 crashed in the Amur Region during a training flight without ammunition. Six crew members were killed and one was injured.
The Russian Defense Ministry clarified that a Tu-95 aircraft crashed in the Amur region in an uninhabited area while performing a training flight, UNN reports, citing Russian media.
Details
Six crew members were killed and one was injured and hospitalized.
The aircraft was flying without ammunition.
A commission of Russia’s Aerospace Forces flew to the crash site to establish all the circumstances of the incident.
In addition
Earlier, Russian media reported that a Tu-154 military aircraft had crashed in Russia; at least six fatalities were known.
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u/BocciaChoc 19d ago
As part of Op Vivaldi it's reported that Ukraine has taken over 50sqr KM, over 2000 dead Russians and over 200 captured
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u/SmokingBlackSeaFleet 18d ago
Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps Commander Biletskyi yesterday said they another 51 square km liberated Nove, Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Karpivka and Novomykhailivka.
Bringing the total since offensive began to 176 square km.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 20d ago
If somebody is still not sure what happened during the Operation Vivaldi, Perun has made a video about it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cR0SmZlfeVY
Ukraine's Lyman Offensive - Operation Vivaldi, Secrecy & How Lies can move Battlelines
AKA - How Ukraine appears to have tried to hide an offensive while Putin attempted to just invent one up. In 2026 Russia generally hold the initiative, but as operations like this demonstrate, that is not universal along the frontline.
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20d ago
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u/Codex_Dev 19d ago
Kursk still accomplished an important thing for Ukraine. Before it happened, Russia was manning its entire border with a paper-thin force of soldiers because Russia figured that Ukraine would never dare invade Russia.
So after suffering that embarrassment, Russia is now forced to deploy more soldiers to its border to guard it, which really fucked its operations to capture the Donbas because they were concentrating their forces there for offensives.
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u/HumpheryShittington 19d ago
"Winning a war of attrition is when you lose 2 years worth of gains in 3 months while having your enemy take minimal casualties" incredible mil analysis
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u/Infamous-Salad-2223 21d ago
Am I right to say that AFU has matured the strike technologies necessary to significantly affect the russian oil and gas industry, particularly the refineries, on a whim? Could they affect 30% of refineries within a week, supposing they want to do it?
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u/HumpheryShittington 20d ago
The nature of the drones and oil industry favors a persistent and methodical strategy. AFU could not knockout 30% of Russian refining in a single strike but they can keep it around that number by re-striking recently repaired distillation columns and cracking towers. You get depreciating returns once you start targeting other parts of refineries or hitting them when they've not yet repaired HVT's.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 20d ago
Given how much they've currently mcfucked up oil production. Yes. As to "in a week" these campaigns are over months and years
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u/throwaway-lolol 21d ago
i don't know that they have the necessary volume of drones for 30% in 1 week, unless maybe the strikes avoided the higher saturation of air defense in the Moscow area and were focused on other refineries
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21d ago
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u/read-the-rules 21d ago
Austin_77,
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 23d ago edited 23d ago
Posting this - X Link - analysis as it is pretty interesting.
Perun recently did an interview with a Ukrainian analyst and an FPV pilot. They suggested both are needed. Artillery and drones work best together as they're good at targetting different things.
The general point is that counter-drone systems like 50 cals, armour, and active protection systems aren't a perfect solution, but they do increase the amount of drones needed to counter an advance. Needing 40 drones per tank is a very different equation to needing 5. It is possible to exhaust local FPV reserves.
So a force needs the artillery to counter these massed armour attacks and enables the drones to work. That's probably only going to get more true as these counter-drone systems get better. Drone/counter drone will keep evolving.
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u/PuffyPanda200 21d ago
FPV drones have a super low throughput per soldier relative to artillery. There is an accuracy percentage that is worse for the artillery but then there is also a percentage of drones that crash, jam, or get shot down.
Russia faces an issue that it is an Italy sized (increase for PPP, decrease for recent contraction and corruption, probably comes out at about even) economy trying to do superpower things. They only have a large population and a kind of nihilistic acceptance of the rank and file.
The Russian system is a response to the medium range strike that Ukraine did a lot of. It just happens that this system (sending 4 to 8 guys out with minimal equipment and hoping they can get fortified) is very vulnerable to drones.
By contrast the Israeli doctrine didn't really take many losses (about 100 or so total in the 2023 to present conflict with Hez) to what was probably similar tactics.
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u/Lord___Rictor 21d ago
It's not so much a doctrinal issue. Israel has an incredible tech advantage compared to their adversaries.
Ukraine has access to superior technology compared to the Russians including state of the art intelligence.
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u/lonjerpc 21d ago
Yeah Hezbollah is just nothing compared to Ukraine. At least interns of drone warfare they are in their infancy.
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u/jonasnee 21d ago
Also maybe worth pointing out that the Israelis have complete air dominance, which logically would be a counter to drones similar to how it is to mortar teams and artillery, if you can fly over pick up a drone position with a drone or plane it doesn't take a whole lot to then remove that position.
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 24d ago edited 24d ago
Are there any new updates on the gas/food/supplies situation in *Crimea? As it pertains to civilian life. Last I heard there was no fuel and people were leaving, has the situation changed at all?
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u/Avelium 23d ago
It has changed. After ending of Ukraine's 40-Days campaign, number of drones attacking Crimea has reduced drastically. There are still parts of region experiencing local blackouts, but it's being fixed gradually. Some towns like Simferopol (Crimean capital) has no blackouts whatsoever for over a month. Fuel shortage is still present, but it's became a bit easier. As for the food, there were never shortages of it, but the prices are higher than on mainland and rising from time to time.
Source: I have a friend there.
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u/beltonz 25d ago
What’s the situation with operation “Vivaldi”? Some sources are saying the 3rd assault brigade have taken massive swaths of land in the Lyman direction. Has there been a possible breakthrough?
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 24d ago
Ukraine opsec has been extremely tight. Rybar, Russian propagandist, posted a map yesterday and in general Russian sources are freaking out about it.
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 24d ago
Yes, pro ru sources are even reporting it. Ukraine and Russian state media have kept a lid on it tho, both for their own reasons.
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u/Cardborg 25d ago
It certainly seems something is happening.
https://bsky.app/profile/osintradar.bsky.social/post/3mw4nrtlilc23
🇷🇺 Russian State Duma deputies are reportedly preparing an informal appeal to Defense Minister Andrei Belousov calling for Russian forces to be withdrawn from the Lyman direction, amid claims of heavy losses
According to the partisan movement Atesh, the deputies learned of significant Russian casualties during Operation Vivaldi. The claims also state that Ukrainian forces have a technological advantage and are using modern robotic systems.
The report further claims that Russia’s elite Rubicon UAV unit was withdrawn from the Lyman–Borova direction following heavy losses, while Ukrainian forces allegedly regained 125 km² of territory during two stages of Operation Vivaldi.
The operation is ongoing, with the report claiming Russian losses in the area have exceeded 3,000 personnel.
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u/Codex_Dev 23d ago
I wonder how UA forces are targeting Rubicon? I know that when RU was striking UA drone teams, they had recon drones looking for the large vampire drone launch points. There was a famous video about half a year ago of some dude picking one up and taking it to a nearby house, which led Russia to airstrike it and cause a MASSIVE explosion. (probably lots of drones inside) I vaguely recall this being located near NW of Pokrovosk by about 10-20 miles in the rear.
Ukraine really doesn't have the airpower to launch numerous airstrikes against drone teams as Russia does. So they have to be doing something else.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 26d ago
The gap between reality and Kremlin propaganda is also growing wider and wider.
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2101642782041407984
The Russian MoD claimed on September 19 that Russian forces have seized over 5,300 square kilometers and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026, including over 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements so far in September 2026. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, but have lost a net of 20 settlements in 2026. Including areas into which Russian forces have infiltrated but do not control brings the total Russian gains to 718.8 square kilometers this year, still far below the Russian MoD’s September 19 claims.
ISW has observed evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements in 2026. The Russian MoD’s September 19 claims are part of a longstanding Kremlin effort to use aggrandized claims of battlefield advances to convince Ukraine and its partners that Ukrainian defenses will collapse and that Ukraine should surrender in the face of an allegedly inevitable Russian victory.
Exaggerated Russian claims likely also result from the culture of pervasive lying within the Russian military. Ukrainian forces have, in fact, successfully contested both the strategic and the operational initiative since late 2025, having held Russian forces to near-zero gains since March 2026 and having conducted successful counterattacks that have liberated significant amounts of territory in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions.
I am well aware that many people also view Ukrainian information as pure propaganda, but independent parties can at least still verify most of their data, whereas Russia has completely drifted off into its own reality by now.
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u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 26d ago
On the pro ru sub there is a mapper they all trust, and even that guy said Ukraine took back more land than Russia in his last update. Love to see it.
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u/Axelrad77 28d ago
USA just announced the sale of $2.68 billion in air defense systems to Ukraine, to be paid via a combination of European contributions and US Foreign Military Financing appropriations.
The Government of Ukraine has requested to buy the following non-major defense equipment items: S-300 Clone missiles; GAM-67 missiles; Range-Extended Air Defense Laser Guided Rocket missile systems; Improvised Transporter Erector Launcher 1.5; mobile launching system modification kits; RPS 202 counter-Unmanned Aircraft System radars; erectable mast trailers, major modifications, and maintenance support; spare parts, consumables and accessories, and repair and return support; software; publications; transportation support; U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical, and logistics support services; and other related elements of logistics and program support.
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u/CatsAndCapybaras 28d ago
This is good news. Looks like some of the items specifically mentioned either aren't exactly accurate, placeholder names, or are new. I'm referencing the "clone" missiles, the nebulously named range extended air defense laser guided rocket missile systems, and the improvised TEL.
I can guess that the middle one is the APKWS. Idk wtf improvised TEL is, but I'm interested.
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u/Axelrad77 29d ago edited 29d ago
We're seeing increased warnings of a likely Russian attack against NATO & EU states, with several European leaders issuing firm statements about the situation after receiving updated security briefings today (Macron's reportedly went for 3 hours and left French officials "shaken"). This latest round of intelligence briefings comes after multiple Russian drone attacks into NATO countries, and supports earlier US & UK intelligence about Russian plans to attack NATO - seemingly a plan to disrupt Ukraine's supply chain by forcing NATO to focus on its own defense, but with the attack being limited enough in scope to not trigger Article 5 (in Putin's mind, he thinks NATO will back down from a major war unless Russia escalates first.)
As this is taking place, we're seeing a bunch of moves to shore up European defense quickly, including a new US base being rush-built in Poland, a new USA-Denmark security agreement giving the US military more autonomy over Greenland, and the first F-35 deliveries to Germany and Finland.
Germany and Sweden also just conducted wargames rehearsing the rapid reinforcement of Gotland Island, which would likely be one of the first targets of any Russian attack.
3
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u/Specialist_Box_8482 28d ago edited 28d ago
I honestly don’t see Putin’s rationale here. His own army is already stalled in Ukraine. What makes him think opening up a wider front would be a good idea? Ignoring that he would be going up against better equipment and troops from multiple nations, a new high risk front would take away resources he needs to keep fighting in Ukraine. Additionally his army has been fighting for nearly 4.5 years nonstop with heavy losses, I can’t imagine their performance would be any good either.
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u/eagleal 24d ago
I honestly don’t see Putin’s rationale here
You don't see it because this supposed invasion is just a domestic disinformation campaign. You should for a moment just ignore the rhetoric.
What we're seeing in the field is an increase around Russia's borders of US and EU's Area and Air denial weaponry. Anti-drone, radars, ad, etc. What this means is the NATO partners are denying Russia any sort of response should military pressure build up (ie. they can't launch missiles or drones against US targets because they will be intercepted from Russia's borders).
Say you want to escalate the conflict further (i mean we're basically fighting directly). You'd need to make sure you've contained the response. Of course we're talking about conventional response. In the event of a strategic response the EU is fucked, but those warning AD systems give the US time to respond.
It is a similar strategic pressure to the AD weaponry surrounding Iran.
If Iran wasn't surrounded by US and it's partners installation of air defenses (from radars to interceptors to f16s, etc), they would have had a much bigger response capacity against the US/Israel attacks. The missiles and drones would've hit israeli objectives with much more effect.
You basically destroy/deny their defences. It's why China is trying to break its containment in the South China Sea, and why their strategic launchers are further back in-land.
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u/ZSUPSTRIP 27d ago
I honestly don’t see Putin’s rationale here. His own army is already stalled in Ukraine. What makes him think opening up a wider front would be a good idea?
I don't think Russia will attack NATO in a conventional sense that would result in another front being opened. Most likely it will be a combination of cyber warfare, misinformation campaigns and saber rattling on the border.
What does that accomplish? It forces the current leadership of the EU to prioritize defense spending over social welfare which could hurt their domestic approval ratings - possibly bleeding some support to the far right parties.
Russia and even Putin himself knows that he can't win a conventional war against all of Europe. But they absolutely will be as big of a pain in the ass as they possibly can for the foreseeable future as 'payback" for supporting Ukraine.
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27d ago
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u/read-the-rules 27d ago
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u/Old_Canary_2074 28d ago
Well if history tought as anything is that leaders can be anything but rational.
Abother point of view might be to mobilize nation for total war. Currently most Russians are tired of war and they do not support it. However this could easily change if one could reframe NATO's kinetic response to small Russian incursion to Poland or Baltics as an attack on motherland.
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u/Dangerous_Bluejay_74 28d ago
Probably more out of frustration that NATO keeps on helping Ukraine and this can be seen as a sort of pay back. And also he knows NATO will not escalate.
Plus Russia gets bombed while NATO countries don't get bombed and he's frustrated the way it's going.
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u/Cardborg 28d ago edited 28d ago
- Invade Ukraine
- Get bogged down for coming up on 5 years
- Attack NATO to... uh...
- ???
- Win?
But seriously, the plan of "slap someone and hope that because it wasn't a punch they'll refrain from responding" is a very risky gamble.
If nothing else I'd like to see NATO planes striking targets in Ukraine in response. Maybe a naval blockade of Kaliningrad too.
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u/No-Garlic3805 28d ago
Maybe he really is being fed miss information by his army if he believes he can do it
1
29d ago
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1
u/read-the-rules 29d ago
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3
u/Choker_of_Chickens Sep 15 '26
can someone explain why we don't see computer-guided machine guns attached to trucks stationed all across UKR and RU like this one? I'm not tech savvy but I don't understand why this tech didn't become the primary anti-OWAD system back in 2023, because similar systems have existed since the 1970s. In 1980, US deploys CIWS, which can automatically track and shoot down a missile traveling over mach 1 at a low altitude.
All Shahed-types have a much bigger profile and travel much slower, so if the tech to reliably shoot them down could have been developed before we got the PC, how is it not being widely used for drones? Is it still too expensive?
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u/cozywit Sep 17 '26
You need to be able to identify the flying object, don't want to accidentally shoot all the birds around you down.
You need to ensure the weapon discharge is safe, don't want to lead your mates, pepper buildings or drop long range rounds on people's heads.
You need to then track the changing position of a drone in a 3D space from a distance. Are you using radar, cameras, etc. You need to firstly guage range, then it's velocity and keep updating that over and over.
You need to then have a fully calibrated automatic weapon with reliable projectile trajectory. Gets harder and harder the further away you want to shoot.
You need to then marry up all these systems to be able to identify, track and engage.
So it's not quite, stick a machine gun on a gimbal with a webcam. It's really quite difficult when broken down. Difficult = expensive.
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u/TestingHydra Sep 16 '26
Its expensive and you'll need a shit load of them for it to be worth it. They can only defend a very small area and you're gonna need people there with it to reload. They are also going to be largely useless against jet powered shaheds which Russia is increasingly producing.
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u/Choker_of_Chickens Sep 16 '26
They are also going to be largely useless against jet powered shaheds which Russia is increasingly producing.
Why? The geran-4 and 5 are still slower than a cruise missile.
I realize you wouldn't be able to spread them throughout the country, I'm just surprised we don't see them defending high-value targets like power stations, refineries, etc.
Its expensive
That's gotta be the only explanation, but it still confuses me. What about the Buk or Tor? Those systems were designed to shoot down stuff moving much faster than an FP-1, yet they're frequently used to shoot down drones. I feel like a radar-homing machine gun would be a more viable option than a SAM launcher, and it's absence (apart from the pantsir) might be a result of a failure to invest in the tech
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u/TestingHydra Sep 16 '26
Jet powered shaheds can fly at an altitude outside aachine guns effective range.
The difference from Buk and Tor is that those are missile systems that can defend a much larger area with greater efficiency.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Sep 16 '26
For what it's worth we are seeing more footage of them. Certainly it is a good tool. I think it just needed reinventing.
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u/beltonz Sep 14 '26
What’s the current situation short term for Ukraine? Haven’t heard much lately.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin Sep 15 '26
The attacks on Energy are working, they've had battlefield success in essentially stopping Russian advances while retaking some territory, and their long range strike is onky improving.
There's challenges, Jet powered Shahed's are a thing but there's already competing interceptors for them. Ballistic missiles are the main threat, but at least one Russia will also have to deal with shortly.
0
u/eagleal 24d ago
Those attacks might have been successful short-term, but also triggered a russian response that cut Ukraine's operating budget by 40%.
Saying there's challenges, there sure are.
For now the EU is bankrolling everything but that is the reason the conservatives and neolibs governments are crumbling. There's far-righters rising that most probably will cause a cut to that line due to political pressure.
If these hard-lines get into power, Ukraine's budget for the next 2 years will depend on how fast these parties can transform their political rhetoric in establishment slangs.
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u/Beast_of_Guanyin 24d ago
Those attacks might have been successful short-term, but also triggered a russian response that cut Ukraine's operating budget by 40%.
Don't bother me with Russian propaganda. Thanks.
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u/HumpheryShittington Sep 15 '26
We're coming towards the end of the Russian summer offensive season, most offensive actions have begun to wind down with the exception of Dobropilia axis which will likely have an increase in intensity before Autumn fully arrives. I'm doubtful we will see anything major happening on the frontlines until March next year.
The coming months are going to be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian homefront. There is an acute lack of interceptors to counter Russian ballistic missiles at the same time as their production numbers have been wound up, Ukraine has yet to field an efficient and scalable counter to the new jet power Shaheds, nor have they found away to degrade the new Russian mesh networks that allow dynamic targeting in the Ukrainian rear.
There is talk about an energy ceasefire (Ukrainian TPP vs. Russian refining) but I believe it when I see it.
15
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u/Infamous-Salad-2223 Sep 11 '26
Is AFU still employing the rolling drone waves tactics to paralyze an invader's position and then storm it with classical methods? Recall the invaders were quite lamentous about that.
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u/Codex_Dev Sep 07 '26
Does anyone know what happened to the tactic of using UV/Light/Radiation to fry FPV optical cables? I recall watching a video months ago of Ukraine using specialized drones that emitted bursts of light along the road that would neutralize Russian drones so that assault forces could move in. It looked like some SciFi type of shit.
I haven't heard or seen anything since then. I'm curious if this tactic was countered or if something happened. Why hasn't there been widespread adoption of this on the front?
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u/TestingHydra Sep 11 '26
If we aren't hearing about it its probably because it is no where near as effective as it was purported to be. If it was actually effective and pratical to do the only possible counter would be for russia to coat their fiber optic cables in something to protect them, which is not impossible for them to do, but would take time.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd Sep 07 '26
Two Russian Su-35S jets collided in the sky over the Kursk region
https://ua.news/en/war-vs-rf/dva-rosiiski-su-35s-zitknulisia-v-nebi-nad-kurskoiu-oblastiu
The Kursk region of Russia has seen yet another loss involving Russian military aircraft. Two Su-35S fighter jets collided in midair, resulting in the destruction of both aircraft. The incident occurred during a flight by Russian combat aircraft.
The incident occurred while the aircraft were flying over the Kursk region. The official causes and circumstances of the collision are currently being investigated.
The Su-35S is a Russian fourth-generation multi-role, highly maneuverable fighter jet equipped with two thrust-vectoring engines.
The Russian Armed Forces use the Su-35S to provide cover for Su-34 strike groups, support ground forces, intercept Ukrainian UAVs and missiles, and counter the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense systems. Earlier, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense released information about Russian defense industry enterprises involved in the production of these aircraft.
This was reported by Russian military bloggers on Monday, September 7.
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u/Codex_Dev Sep 07 '26
That's a BINGO
11
1
Sep 07 '26
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1
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6
u/Specialist_Box_8482 Sep 05 '26
Apparently a US envoy will be speaking to both Putin and Zelensky on a possible peace plan this weekend. Will this bear fruit or will this just be used as another opportunity to rearm like in past instances?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-trump-peace-proposal-witkoff-kushner/
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u/cozywit Sep 07 '26
Looks like the realtors achieved fucking nothing.
What a joke.
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u/Judazzz Sep 07 '26
Remember who on US soil got the red-carpet treatment, and who got a reaming in front of the world's eye...
This whole "peace negotiations" charade has been about nothing but optics from the get-go: pretend to be looking for a solution when the camera is rolling, make shading deals about how to fuck over Ukraine when it isn't.
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u/BocciaChoc Sep 06 '26
There's little reaosn for Ukraine to do anything until after the midterms at this point
2
u/UpbeatPhilosophySJ Sep 07 '26 edited Sep 07 '26
what's so special about the midterms? Trump is there for two more years. It's not a parliamentary system.
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u/Aedeus Sep 06 '26
Not to mention there's nothing to suggest that Russia would offer terms that are anything other than capitulation.
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u/HumpheryShittington Sep 07 '26
Russia won't walk-back their maximalist demands until they experience a serious setback on the battlefield
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u/Uetur Sep 05 '26
I doubt it has anything to do with real peace proposals and more to do with an attempt at a mutual no target list on things like refineries and air travel.
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u/No-Garlic3805 Sep 05 '26
I got the suspicion that America realised its in the exact same position with iran that Russia is with ukraine and that both sides are supporting each other's enemies and it wont ever end hence the CIA director flying to moscow to end both wars.
So its a deal to try and give them both an off ramp with each other's enemies and save face
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u/Specialist_Box_8482 Sep 05 '26
Very interesting idea, any thoughts on what that off ramp could look like?
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u/OverpricedGPU Sep 04 '26
Bro magics chill, what happened today?
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u/BocciaChoc Sep 06 '26
magics2 I guess, the OG likely was sent to the front for poor performance, the new magics don't want the same fate
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