r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 18d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 29, 2026
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u/-BigDeckEnergy- 18d ago
https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-propulsion/boeing-wins-us-navy-fa-xx-fighter-competition
Clean sweep. Boeing won F/A-XX
Press release coming
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u/sunstersun 18d ago
Lockheed really f'd up eh
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u/-BigDeckEnergy- 17d ago
Turns out, being a raging asshole to your biggest customer + thinking you are hot shit when people want to drop you will do a number on your future programs.
Both the Navy and Air Force have literally been openly talking about breaking 'vendor lock' (i.e., vendor controlled intellectual property, data rights, and program ownership) for both NGAD programs for half a decade now. Guess who they were talking about?
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u/WulfTheSaxon 18d ago
Press release coming
Boeing: https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2026-09-29-U-S-Navy-Selects-Boeing-for-F-A-XX-Program
[…] Delivering two advanced fighters in parallel was always our plan, and we invested accordingly. We are ready and able to build multiple concurrent future combat aircraft franchise programs[…]
And the Pentagon: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4614331/department-of-war-and-us-navy-award-contract-for-fa-xx-program/
Today, the Department of War announces a contract awarded by the U.S. Navy to Boeing for the Sixth-Generation F/A-XX Strike Fighter under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. The contract is valued at more than $20B for the full-scale development phase. The contract procures multiple test aircraft for ground, airworthiness, systems, and weapons integration testing.
"The F/A-XX is a critical pillar in our commitment to maintaining peace through strength. F/A-XX will dominate contested airspace, extend operational reach, and deliver a decisive combat advantage for the warfighter," said Michael P. Duffey, Under Secretary of War for Acquisition and Sustainment. "The F/A-XX platform represents a crucial, non-negotiable investment in America's national security and long-term air combat capabilities. We are joining forces with Boeing to field these capabilities rapidly, ensuring our warfighters possess the lethal and highly networked systems required to deter aggression, project undisputed power, and secure absolute air superiority."
The F/A-XX will provide advanced carrier-based power projection that extends the range of the most agile and survivable airfields: U.S. Navy carriers. In addition, F/A-XX will be interoperable with manned and unmanned platforms such as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) and increase the capability of every CCA it teams with.
"This achievement marks a new era for the U.S. Navy," said acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao. "The Sixth-Generation fighter is a generational leap in air superiority and will provide the world's best aviators with unparalleled capabilities to fight, win, and come home safe. We are excited to partner with Boeing, and for our warfighters to continue to dominate the skies and defeat our nation's enemies."
Following this contact award announcement, Boeing will deliver the platform to augment and eventually replace legacy F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers beginning in the 2030s, and operate alongside the F-35C.
This next-generation strike fighter, F/A-XX, will secure the skies and deliver peace through strength for decades to come.
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u/Well-Sourced 18d ago
Attacks on border check points are now going both ways with Ukraine joining in last night. Due to the Russian strikes Ukraine & Poland are discussing operating the checkpoints on Polish territory for protection. Despite a rise in attacks on Ukrainians the economic ties between the counties will grow and help Ukraine through a difficult winter.
Drone strikes hit Russia-Belarus Krasny Kamen border post | New Voice of Ukraine
Drones struck the Krasny Kamen international border crossing on the Russian-Belarusian frontier overnight, Supernova+ Telegram channel reported on Sept. 29. Video footage circulating from the incident demonstrates extensive destruction across the checkpoint’s administrative and customs infrastructure resulting from an ensuing fire. Due to the scale of the damage, standard operations and commercial vehicular throughput across the international crossing are expected to face substantial disruptions in the near term.
The Krasny Kamen border crossing is located on the Russian side of the state boundary, positioned directly opposite the Selyshche checkpoint in Belarus's Gomel Oblast. The terminal serves as a primary logistical corridor for freight and passenger road transit between the two allied states.
Russian drone attacks Yahodyn checkpoint on Polish border | New Voice of Ukraine
Russian forces again attacked an area near the Ukrainian-Polishborder in Volyn Oblast with a jet-powered drone on Sept. 28, BBC NewsUkrainian reported.
Volyn regional governor Roman Romaniuk confirmed that aRussian jet-powered Shahed drone struck near the Yahodyn border crossing. “Unfortunately, there was a strike near the border with theRepublic of Poland, in the village of Staroveitove, at the Yahodyninternational border crossing in Kovel district,” Romaniuk wrote in a Telegrampost.
The blast wave damaged the checkpoint building at theentrance to the terminal, according to Romaniuk. “There have been no reports of injuries or deaths,” theofficial said.
Shortly before the incident, Ukraine’s Air Force reportedthat a jet-powered drone was flying near Holovne in Volyn Oblast toward thePolish border.
Poland’s Polish Air Navigation Services Agency, known asPANSA, said the airports in Rzeszow and Lublin had suspended operations duringthe Russian attack on western Ukraine.
On 9 September, the Russians attacked the Starokozache border crossing in Odesa Oblast on the border with Moldova, killing two people. The crossing is temporarily closed.
On 13 September, the Russians struck the locomotive of a passenger train in Volyn Oblast, two kilometres from the border with Poland. On the same day, a petrol station near the Yahodyn border crossing on the border with Poland was damaged in a Russian attack and several lorries caught fire.
The Ministry for Recovery, Infrastructure and Transport is preparing an agreement that will allow Ukrainian border and customs services to operate on Polish territory. The meeting was attended by heads of Polish voivodeships, representatives of Poland's Ministry of the Interior and Ministry of Finance, as well as border and customs service officials from both countries. This issue is becoming particularly relevant amid constant Russian attacks on the Ukrainian border and transport infrastructure," the ministry said.
One of the main areas discussed at the meeting was the development of joint border crossing points and joint controls on the Ukrainian-Polish border. Joint control means that the Ukrainian and Polish border and customs services carry out the necessary procedures at a single location. This format has long been used at five border crossing points on the Ukrainian-Polish border and at the border with Moldova.
During the meeting, the sides separately discussed preparations for an agreement between Ukraine and Poland on joint control. Work on the document is ongoing, but the sides have not yet moved to signing it. "The conclusion of the agreement would create the necessary legal conditions for further development of joint control, including for Ukrainian border and customs services to operate on Polish territory.
More Ukrainians seek short-term work in Poland as winter pressures grow | New Voice of Ukraine
A growing number of Ukrainians are seeking short-term workin Poland — for several months, with the option of returning to Ukraineafterward.
International employment company Gremi Personal told NVBusiness that it identified the trend by analyzing candidate inquiries over thepast month. The agency said the main reasons include a desire among someUkrainians to leave the country temporarily because of the security situation,earn money and get through a difficult winter in more stable conditions withoutcommitting to long-term migration. “This winter, many Ukrainians are thinking about how to getthrough it because of constant Russian attacks. During the COVID-19 pandemic,Gremi Personal already helped thousands of Ukrainians come to Poland for work.We arranged transportation and housing, and because the borders were closed, weeven launched a charter flight. Now we are repeating this program forUkrainians during the war,” said Tomasz Bogdevich, CEO of Gremi Personal inPoland.
Gremi Personal also stressed that Ukrainians traveling toPoland for short-term work do not necessarily need to apply for temporaryprotection. Ukrainian citizens can enter Poland visa-free with a biometricpassport and stay for up to 90 days within a 180-day period. Employers arrangework authorization under current rules governing the employment of foreigners.
Demand among Ukrainians for short-term work is not anisolated trend. Specialists say it reflects a broader shift in Poland’s labormarket. Employers are increasingly using temporary workers when they are notready to expand permanent staff or need additional employees during periods ofheavier workloads.
Data from Gremi Personal’s analytical center support thetrend. In the second quarter of 2026, turnover in the temporary employmentsegment at temporary work agencies rose 4% year over year to 1.159 billionzlotys.
Official statistics also show the scale and internationalnature of the sector. Poland’s Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy saidtemporary work agencies placed 697,301 people in jobs in 2025, including361,309 foreigners — more than half of the total. The number of temporary workcontracts rose from 1.31 million in 2024 to 1.38 million in 2025.
Ukrainians remain the largest group among foreigners inPoland. At the end of August 2026, more than 911,000 Ukrainian citizens wereinsured through Poland’s Social Insurance Institution, ZUS — 6.4% more than atthe beginning of the year. They accounted for about two-thirds of all insuredforeigners in Poland.
That figure represents only part of the Ukrainians living in the country. As of June 30, 2026, about 1.56 million people held validresidence documents in Poland, including nearly 959,000 under temporaryprotection.
At the same time, overall demand for workers among Polishbusinesses remains subdued. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, Poland’sstatistics office, GUS, recorded 98,700 job vacancies — only 2,900 more than ayear earlier. Employers continue to look for workers but are becomingincreasingly cautious about expanding permanent staff.
Gremi Personal believes a new model of labor migration isemerging at the intersection of these two trends — Ukrainians seekingshort-term stays abroad and Polish businesses needing a flexible workforce.
Attacks on Ukrainians in Poland rise roughly 30% over three years | New Voice of Ukraine
The frequency of physical assaults and acts of aggression directed at Ukrainian citizens living in Poland has grown by approximately 30% over the last 3 years, Ukraine's Ambassador to Poland Vasyl Bondar said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
However, he stressed that this numerical rise must be contextualized within recent legislative reforms and evolving police record-keeping standards. Incidents that law enforcement agencies historically classified as common hooliganism, verbal disorderly conduct, or petty street fights are now consistently prosecuted under criminal statutes governing hate crimes motivated by national or ethnic hatred.
According to Bondar, Polish prosecutors actively oversaw 182 pre-trial criminal investigations concerning nationality-based hate crimes between January and June 2026.
The ambassador added that incidents of anti-Ukrainian harassment frequently gain widespread public visibility because victims or eyewitnesses record video footage and circulate it across social media platforms. In his view, while these viral recordings unavoidably heighten anxiety among the Ukrainian expatriate community, they simultaneously compel Polish law enforcement to act with greater urgency, transparency, and vigor.
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u/Gecktron 18d ago
The topic of the Belgian-Dutch ASWF program came up recently. Naval News and Hartpunkt now reported some additional information.
In a letter to the Dutch House of Representatives dated 18 September 2026, the Dutch State Secretary for Defence, Derk Boswijk, provided an update on the current status of the anti-submarine warfare frigate programme, which is to be carried out in collaboration with Belgium.
According to the reporting, after Germany dropping out of the F-126, Dutch authorities are now examining if new capacities in the areas of engineering, design, project management and industrial manufacturing have become availiable to accelerate or strengthen the ASWF project and other national defence procurement programmes.
Both F-126 and ASWF are handled by Damen as prime contractor. So the end of F-126 should free up capacities for ASWF. Its unclear how much use these capacities will be, as it seems like there are much bigger problems with ASWF:
The delivery of the first Dutch frigate has been postponed from 2030 to 2033. The Ministry confirmed that this latest delay is due to structural stability issues identified during the design phase. The original hull had to be enlarged and redesigned to ensure sufficient stability reserves whilst maintaining the necessary space and weight reserves for future capability upgrades throughout the ship’s service life.
According to the ministry itself, the hull had to be redesigned and rebuild to ensure stability and weight reserves.
This is now the third delay:
The original MoU in 2018 envisioned a delivery in 2025
A MoU in 2023 pushed the delivery to 2029/2030
The newest timeline puts the delivery date to 2033.
The Dutch parliament is set to receive a report on the projects timeline and budget in Q4 of this year. With Belgians participation already in question, I think its entirely possible that the Netherlands themselves will have to cut the program if the problems continue to accumulate.
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u/roionsteroids 18d ago
The new Dutch attack submarines (French Orka class), after previously using the Walrus for what's going to be 45 years by then, is also aiming at 2033+.
Probably not of the utmost highest priority for non-nuclear powers? The last time Dutch submarines saw much action was in WW II.
The frigate here is multi-purpose too, anti-submarine warfare on its own is just too niche and can be handled by marine patrol aircraft, or newer underwater drones (Dutch navy has multiple kinds of those already).
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u/Gecktron 18d ago
anti-submarine warfare on its own is just too niche
I disagree on this point. ASW is one of the most pressing needs for many European navies. Preventing Russian submarines from breaking out will be very important and its hard to find a more useful tool for that task than ASW ships. They combine multiple kind of sensors with multiple tools to deter or damage enemy submarines. All while being "on station" for longer and being closer to where they have to be.
Similarly, existing underwater drones are just not there yet to provide effective counters to submarines. They can aid in detection, but are overall still very limited. Im not aware of any dutch underwater drones that could provide such capabilities.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 18d ago edited 18d ago
A Tu-95 bomber "crashed" during a training flight; only one crew member survived, according to Russia's Ministry of Defense
A Tu-95 crashed in the Amur Region during a training flight without ammunition. Six crew members were killed and one was injured.
The Russian Defense Ministry clarified that a Tu-95 aircraft crashed in the Amur region in an uninhabited area while performing a training flight, UNN reports, citing Russian media.
Details
Six crew members were killed and one was injured and hospitalized.
The aircraft was flying without ammunition.
A commission of Russia’s Aerospace Forces flew to the crash site to establish all the circumstances of the incident.
In addition
Earlier, Russian media reported that a Tu-154 military aircraft had crashed in Russia; at least six fatalities were known.
In theory, Russia still has around 37 aircraft of this type remaining, but experts doubt that more than 20 are truly operational.
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u/Toptomcat 18d ago
Why put 'crashed' in quotes? Do you have some reason to think it was intentional or the result of enemy action?
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 18d ago
That was the original headline from the media outlet, and I adopted it exactly as it was. I can't simply change it.
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u/Toptomcat 18d ago
Fair enough.
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 18d ago
I changed it to italic and will do that in the future, so it is more obvious.
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u/Thermawrench 18d ago
Wouldn't "" be more fitting here? Italics is more for emphasis on the word, "" is for doubt, notority/innotority or sarcasm.
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u/Righteous_Horn6336 18d ago
Given the situation in Somalia and the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, reports are now coming out that there is collaboration between the Houthi forces in Yemen and al-Shabaab in Somalia.
https://x.com/FT/status/2104789015014650219?s=20
I believe if the organizations are sharing resources, tactics, and training, the logical next step would be some kind of pact or allegiance. This would prove to be a huge challenge for the United States and other Western Nations, given that discussions between Iran and the US are not going well. If this develops and proves to be true, we could see the new levels of global supply chain disruption compounding on an already fragile situation if al-Shabaab and Houthi forces take control of both sides of the Bab al-Mandab Straight.
I know there are some disagreements on the likelihood of this as the Houthi's are Shia and al-Shabaab is Sunni, but common enemies (and money) make for some strange friendships. Especially with Arab states funding and resourcing governments and militias in the Horn Region, I don't think an allegiance is as far fetched as it seems.
Interested to see if anyone else has any more information or thoughts on this!
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u/moragisdo 18d ago edited 18d ago
If this develops and proves to be true, we could see the new levels of global supply chain disruption compounding on an already fragile situation if al-Shabaab and Houthi forces take control of both sides of the Bab al-Mandab Straight
Isn't Al-Shabaab area of operation mostly concentrated in the South of Somalia ? They are very far away from Bab al-Mandab.
Also the Houthi are not attacking any ships that isn't linked to KSA, so it's a better situation than post-2023 (which they already had access to the Red Sea coast), so I doubt it would be new levels of disruption.
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u/Righteous_Horn6336 18d ago
Fair points! I knew they were predominately in the southern regions, such as the Shabelle, but I thought I saw some reporting recently that put them farther north more in Puntland; that with these accounts of traveling to Yemen, I suppose I drew an assumption.
That makes sense, I don't think I would expect the Houthi to attack any non KSA linked ships. But perhaps with the Red Sea access institute some sort of non-violent revenue producing system? Something to build credibility and generate funds for their movement?
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u/Rimfighter 18d ago
Mostly concentrated to the south, yes, but al-Shabaab does have a center of operations in the al-Madow mountains of Puntland /Somaliland. The area itself is contested by the governments of Puntland / Somaliland and is very much an isolated frontier region- so much so that al-Shabaab is the closest thing approaching an actual government in those areas.
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u/BulbusDumbledork 18d ago
salafi takfiris working hand in hand with zaydi shias?
this story has been floated since operation rough rider.
it's always funny to me how western pundits emphasis the extreme piousness and fundamentalism of these muslim actors until it suites their narrative.
iran are extremist religious zealots who care about their religion more than their lives. but when their religious supreme leader officially says nukes are an affront to allah, a crime that carries the death penalty btw, that's not that serious to them actually.
similarly, shia and sunni supposedly hate each other and have deep irreconcilable differences that mean they want to kill each other on sight. but here shia and sunni are working closely together, despite the fact that al-shabaab's takfirism is literally the type of exclusionary violent ideology they talk about.
i'll believe it when i hear it from ansarallah, who generally have no compunctions about their actions, or keeping up appearances, or trying to appeal to western audiences
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u/Defiant_Restaurant61 17d ago
"how western pundits"
"western audience "
I guess credibledefense allows vagueposting now. Next step is just making up "people" that "told" you things since we're doing post-truthist rethoric.
shia and sunni supposedly hate each other and have deep irreconcilable differences that mean they want to kill each other on sight
Of course, how could we forget the unnammed western medias saying that Shias and Sunnis want to kill each other on sight and making broad statements about these being exclusionary violent ideologies.
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u/BulbusDumbledork 17d ago
"western pundits" are the political experts interviewed on western mainstream media who describe the saudi-iran rivalry as primarily a shia-sunni thing instead of two regional powers vying for regional influence.
"western audiences" refers to western, liberal sensibilities shared by people who consume western media and/or received western education, especially regarding ww2 and the post ww2 world order. specifically, ansarallah doesn't care about not appearing antisemitic, as can be seen by their flag.
of course i'm exaggerating the extent of the shia-sunni rivalry for effect, but you can easily find think tanks, mainstream articles, and geopolitical experts emphasizing the role of religious fundamentality in regional dynamics instead of a wholistic analysis of rational political actors. this informs and is informed by state actors, like the u.s. and israel, using the supposed shia-sunni rivalry as justification for certain actions. e.g. framing iran's actions as primarily trying to spread shia ideology and thus necessitating a "sunni alliance" or "moderate muslims" to counter it.
my criticism is this single-track framework of assessment from western sources reducing geopolitical actors to simple-minded automata who have no interests outside of their religion - except when they do have interests, like nukes, that justify actions of western actors/israel even if their supposedly all-encompassing religion opposes it.
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u/Defiant_Restaurant61 17d ago edited 17d ago
my criticism is this single-track framework of assessment from western sources reducing geopolitical actors to simple-minded automata
It's hard to take this as an honest attempt at criticism while you yourself simplify the "western" media ecosystem to what appears to be mostly fictional pundits who alternate between saying it all boils down to Shia vs Sunnis, and then flip the script and say it's not that relevant.
I'd be curious to see the names of medias/pundits/credible think-tanks that framed Iran as those "who have no interests outside of their religion" and reduced the politics of the region to the doings of "simple-minded automata", and then proceeded to say the opposite when it suit their point. My morbid curiosity even led me to check Fox News but alas, very little on Shia/Sunni schism that didn't mention the broader regional rivalry.
On the other hand, Ayatollah Khamenei was widely protrayed by "western" media/pundits/etc... as much more of a bureaucracy-oriented politician than a religious figure compared to his predecessor (for example, largest french newspaper Le Monde, 15/2/26 : "Un successeur plus politique que religieux", ie. a successor more political than religious)
I'm also highly skeptical of anyone broadly reducing audiences of the Middle-East discourse in "western" countries solely through a "western" frame. You can observe very obvious differences between say, France, the UK and the USA on many ME topics. For example since you mentionned it, "nukes".
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u/Righteous_Horn6336 17d ago
An article I just found that touches on that point. As these organizations compete for credibility and establishment hoping to become governing bodies, they act more like that. As you said, being able to abstract some of their stances in order to progress the welfare of the group or aspiring state.
I think the last twenty years of western media covering wars in the Middle East have broadly painted people as this or that, incapable of reconciling differences in beliefs. Yet the reality is similar to Orthodox vs Catholic vs Protestant, or differing political parties, D66 vs PVV.
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u/Righteous_Horn6336 18d ago
All great points. I must be honest and say I am new to learning about Islam, but I am trying to educate myself on it more, among other things (if you have any recommendations please point me in the right direction). And you're absolutely right, the hypocrisy of Western (most) Media is more apparent than ever these days.
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u/qevshd 18d ago edited 18d ago
Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%
MOSCOW, Sept 28 - Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.58 billion) on defence in 2027, around 27% more than the 13.5 trillion roubles originally budgeted...
The documents also showed the government raised its estimate for its 2026 budget deficit to 3.2% of gross domestic product, from 1.6% of GDP previously. Budget spending in 2026 will increase by 13.2% to 48.6 trillion roubles or 20.9% of GDP....
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u/Soft_Opportunity2189 18d ago
Slight caveat - inflation likely means the "real" increase might be 20 % or less ( some people suggested that key rates at 14 % might imply inflation of 10 % or more, in which case nominal spending increasing at 27 % might be 20, 17, or 10 % depending on how bad we believe inflation really is). If anything it would look like a "sustain the current tempo" budget if it wasn't likely to be revised upwards later, like every single one this war so far. I think the fuel troubles in Russia should contribute at least somewhat to more inflation too, sooner or later.
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u/tiredstars 18d ago
Not to mention that we're talking about the increase in defence costs, which are probably going up faster than inflation - although tempered by the government holding contract prices down at the expense of firms.
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u/tiredstars 18d ago
Oof, double the budget deficit predicted. Not that this is a big surprise since the war hasn't wound down like it was meant to.
The new plan is almost certainly more realistic than the old one, so I guess good work on that at least. The question, of course, is "how are they going to pay for it?" Where are those tax rises going to fall and what impact will they have? And has the government resolved the problems with borrowing that led to it being completely suspended for two or three months this year?
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u/Better_Wafer_6381 18d ago edited 18d ago
3.2% deficit on its own doesn't seem too bad on the face of it. Better than the US and all major European economies. But I guess it changes things when your bond yields are into double digits.
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u/tiredstars 18d ago
And not even low double digits. Who knows exactly what they've had to do to hold yields at 16%
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u/ChornWork2 18d ago
another nice thing about being rich and successful is the ample credit available at favorable terms.
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u/roionsteroids 18d ago
That pretty much matches the Ukrainian increase this year (at least $27 billion on top of the planned $100-ish billion in 2026).
Currently paid for with funds allocated for 2027 originally, talking about sustainability.
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u/qevshd 18d ago
Defense spending as a proportion of overall budget is not quite at "total war" spending, but, at about 35% it is quite significant.
I'm sure plenty will be written on whether this is sustainable or not, so I'll leave out my two cents.
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u/RumpRiddler 18d ago
It's nearly universally accepted that this is NOT sustainable, but then there is the critical question of how long it can be sustained? Nobody knows.
The price of oil fluctuates. Ukrainian attacks can't be fully predicted. Sanctions and their workarounds are murky. Trump is a known unknown. And the depth of Russian financial resources isn't accurately published.
So we can clearly plot the downward trajectory of Russia, but we can't identify how close they are to the bottom.
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