r/Environmentalism • u/NihiloZero • Sep 05 '26
On the likelihood and related consequences of a “blue ocean event” in the Arctic Ocean...
Annoyed at being called an “anti-science doomer,” I decided to sort through and present some quotes from academic literature about the likelihood of a “blue ocean event” (BOE) wherein the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free during the summer. Additionally, I conclude with quotes from scientific articles about the severe, diverse, and under-recognized consequences of that BOE happening.
Previously, a BOE had not been expected until mid-century because overly-optimistic climate change models didn’t have us projected to reach the +1.5C to +1.9C threshold of warming (required to trigger the event) until much later. Unfortunately… the dramatic acceleration of global warming over the past decade (capped off by the current “Supersized” “Godzilla” El Nino) means that we will reach and breach that threshold for Arctic melting much sooner than previously expected.
The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030
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To quantify the amount of warming that would cause the Arctic Ocean to become nearly ice free, we examine at which level of warming sea ice area drops below 1 × 106 km2. For the high-sensitivity observational estimate, we find that sea ice area in September drops below this threshold for about 1.7°C global warming. Considering the ensemble spread in sensitivities, we obtain a 95% confidence interval of 1.5°C to 1.9°C for the global warming at which September Arctic sea ice vanishes.
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Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), produced by the UK’s Met Office.
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For the second consecutive year, winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest peak observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979.
The impacts of a BOE include...
Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century.
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This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years.
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We present evidence that material from the sea ice was indeed present in the water column and that this mechanism appears to be important in maintaining active populations of planktonic protists through the polar night. Our upscaling exercise based on observed ridge formation rates suggests that such release of food particles can supply extra energy during the polar night to the pelagic food web in the entire Arctic Ocean. It follows from this that the predicted ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming, may have implications for the protist community at the base of the food web, because the winter food reservoir in the sea ice will be very much reduced if there is no sea ice to accumulate it during the most productive summer period.
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Finally, we suggest that shifts in the phenology, distribution and biomass of sea ice primary production anticipated with declining seasonal sea ice will disrupt sympagic-pelagic-benthic coupling and consequently the structure and the functioning of the food web which is critical for Indigenous Peoples, commercial fisheries, and global biodiversity.
This collection of quotes (with links to to formal academic sources) represents the backbone of my broader general belief that ecological collapse (and therefore social & civilizational collapse) is likely within the next few years. Taken together, I believe that it paints a rather clear picture of what is shortly in store for the world. But, until that point, I hope this post can serve as a resource whenever related concerns about collapse are dismissed or denied as being alarmist or anti-science.
I do understand that the prognosis this post represents is grim. However... I am of the sort which believes that “the truth shall set you free,” and the prognosis is even more grim if people don’t widely understand the true nature and extent of the actual problems we are facing. You can’t fix a problem if you don’t recognize the problem. And if society doesn’t generally understand a problem... it will be more likely to obstruct any potential solution or proper response. Whether any viable solutions are possible or not... I think the truth affords people some dignity insofar as they don’t have to behave in ridiculous or counterproductive ways while the environment and society collapses around them.
Whether you intend to prevent the related ecological collapse, or if you’d rather just live more freely in these final years of human life on Earth... it is my hope that this document facilitates that.
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u/RonCraven Sep 05 '26
Your hypothesis and the links you've posted aren't entirely in alignment. For instance, your first link states:
"We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming".
Which I suppose does technically match the claim that the Arctic could have ice-free summer days - N.B. not ice-free summers - but the source also calls this unlikely and it is drawn from a small sub-set of the total sample.
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u/NihiloZero Sep 05 '26
Indeed, each of those articles present at least slightly differing information and are not all in complete alignment. I also recognize that I am not drawing the exact same conclusions as any of those articles.
However, there is a common idea about a temperature "threshold" above which a BOE would become likely. And I argue that the overwhelming reason that these papers present later dates as a more likely time for a BOE is because they were written before the dramatic increase in warming (over the past decade) was widely noted and, importantly, without realizing that the "Godzilla" El Nino would arise and drive up temperatures faster still.
So any of these articles which may agree that a BOE event is likely to occur at the threshold of +1.5C to +1.9C (surface temperature warming above the pre-industrial average) would not have expected the Earth to approach that threshold as quickly as it actually has. Even articles from as recently as last year would have been surprised by the sudden acceleration of this warming associated with the current "Supersized" El Nino that is arising. And, again, they were generally using more optimistic climate models to begin with. Many of the most widely popular (but now obsolete) models didn't anticipate +1.5C of warming until the middle of the century.
Unfortunately, I believe that we are already likely experiencing at least +1.5C of surface warming above the preindustrial average. Additionally, as I've pointed out in another comment, just this week it was reported that we are already seeing ice-free spots in the Arctic ocean less that 60km from the North Pole. This does not bode well considering that next year is widely expected to be hotter still -- and the effects of diminishing ice volume & thickness have a somewhat cumulative year after year. So... we are already at record low ice volume this year (with unprecedented areas of open water spots) and next year is supposed to be the warmest year on record.
I believe all these different factors (especially the threshold) explain why a BOE is more likely to occur sooner than any of those particular articles suggested -- not because they were wholly in error but simply because they just didn't expect the climate to heat up quite as quickly as it actually has.
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u/me_myself_ai Sep 05 '26
A trillion more tons of CO2 will not spell the "final years of human life on Earth", my friend. It could push us into wiping ourselves out with our terrifying technological capabilities, but warming alone isn't an extinction-level event.
The rest is obviously really fascinating -- I haven't seen this predicted for this winter anywhere else so I'm a little dubious, but the logic certainly checks out. If this indeeds happens, then I expect the main impact would be semi-good, in fact: it would galvanize the world. We'd be brightening clouds and launching space dust within the decade, for sure
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u/CharacterForce1569 Sep 05 '26
Warming is absolutely an extinction level event. Have you ever heard of the Permian Mass Extinction? Where does this "warming doesn't cause extinction" misinformation come from?
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u/me_myself_ai Sep 05 '26
Have you heard about the time some animals didn't go extinct? It was wild! My favorite period of prehistory.
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u/NihiloZero Sep 05 '26
A trillion more tons of CO2 will not spell the "final years of human life on Earth", my friend.
Adding the equivalent "of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions" will be represented as a sudden spike in warming... which then leads to other known negative effects of global warming which are already more widely recognized. THOSE negative effects, combined with trophic collapse related to the BOE (mentioned in the latter two quotes) are what make this an extinction-level event.
I believe that trophic collapse in the Arctic Ocean, by itself, will inevitably lead to extinction -- but, combined with the other effects of global warming (and the second/third order social/political responses/consequences)... would even more assuredly lead to our demise.
I haven't seen this predicted for this winter anywhere else so I'm a little dubious, but the logic certainly checks out.
I don't believe that I made that claim that it was going to this year and was mostly deferring to the cited likelihood by 2030. But... I do believe that next year, 2027, expected to be the hottest yet, is when the BOE is likely to occur. I believe it would have already happened this year if it was going to. That said... just this past week there was indeed small patches of open water observed within 60km of the North Pole. That doesn't bode well for next year as successive years of limited and reduced ice increases the likelihood of a BOE.
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u/PinkTippedYogurtToss Sep 05 '26
Climate Tipping Points, as presented by Johan Rockstrom, will fall like dominoes when BOE occurs.
One thing you omitted was the loss of albedo the arctic provides; the reflecting rays of the sun back into space, thanks to the white. When ice or snow is lost, there is an increase in absorption of the rays energy, estimated to be about the value of half our current emissions. Jemm Beddell has a paper called “Deep Adaptation” on it.
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u/NihiloZero Sep 05 '26
One thing you omitted was the loss of albedo the arctic provides; the reflecting rays of the sun back into space, thanks to the white.
That was actually mentioned... in regard to why there would be a relatively sudden and dramatic spike of heating in the event of a BOE.
Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly.
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u/baltimore-aureole Sep 05 '26
there were continuous "blue ocean events" (ice free summers) before the current glacial maximum which was reached 25,000 years BCE. polar ice caps and glaciers have been melting ever since.
planet earth does not normally have polar ice caps.
believing that we can stop the climate cycle simply by purchasing a different brand of car or putting up wind turbines is astonishingly ignorant about real science.
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u/NihiloZero Sep 06 '26
You are entitled to your opinion, but I don't believe that your comment was particularly accurate or correct.
We are now living during the warmest period of human existence... and that is primarily due to anthropogenic climate change. Consuming veritable seas of underground oil and similarly massive amounts of underground coal... has undoubtedly had a significant impact upon the climate.
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u/Torgud_ Sep 06 '26
Who gives a crap what the climate was like 25,000 years ago? All of human history exists in the last 10-12 thousand years when humans started doing agriculture and civilization began. During that time - which encompases all of human history - the climate was in a narrow range that was highly beneficial to humanity. Times when the climate SLIGHTLY differed from that norm, like 536 AD or 1334-47 were the worst years to be a human in history that featured mass death from starvation. The climate that fostered humanity's rise is a climate we have now left behind, probably forever. And I'm not even going to bother debating you on whether or not the climate is currently changing due to human caused behavior, that is long settled science.
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u/Impossible_Goat9650 Sep 05 '26
Yes, I think the research you've done and conclusions you've made are probably accurate. I also doubt that our way of life will last more than five more years before we descend into ecological and societal demise. Some things I hope I'm wrong about!