Desde já bom dia/ boa tarde.

Pesquisando um pouco a fundo a coreweave dá para entender que a empresa foi um "trampolim" para a nvidia crescer receitas em relação aos concorrentes (AMD) e demonstrar uma demanda financeira "forte"...

O que acontece é que nesse processo a coreweave tem-se enterrado em dividas levando a uma divida gigantesca e perspectivando a uma divida ainda maior e irei explicar o porquê..

Os chips da Nvidia tem uma "Data de Validade" sendo que essa data é de 1/2 anos ,a primeira compra massiva que a coreweave fez a nvidia foi dos Chips H100 ,o que acontece é que muito provavelmente em 2027 ou 2028 irão ter que trocar esses Chips por uma versão atualizada o que levará que tenham que acumular ainda mais divida e assim sucessivamente.

Tendo em conta as expansões que andam a fazer na India e na Indonesia e noutros Centros de Dados ,estima-se que em 2027 ainda se irão endividar ainda mais..

Por mais que as receitas cresçam nao sei até que ponto até 2029 por exemplo vao começar a ter fluxo de caixa..

E isso leva-me a pensar que a nvidia comece a abandonar a coreweave e a arranjar outros parceiros estratégicos que a longo prazo poderão estar mais reforçados tal como a IREN ,alem da computação eles forncem serviços de IA fisica ,refrigeração Liquida e secalhar o gargalo da proxima fase,a energia.

Comparing NBIS to other AI infra companies is ridiculous. Nebius is growing without over extending themselves, higher revenue growth and safe Altman Z score which detects if a company is in distress. I have 250 shares at about $70.

institutions haven't stopped buying. it's only going up and we'll get another update in a few weeks.

altindex ran a piece last week on tsmc revenue that leaned on their job openings number, openings averaging around 466 in june up to about 776 in september. they were upfront that openings measure recruitment demand and not actual hires.

so i pulled the headcount series they didnt cite. a year ago it was around 23,800. now its about 26,900. thats roughly 13% more people, while openings went from about 448 to about 806, call it 80%.

that matters because a postings spike with flat headcount is usually just req churn. here the reqs are actually converting.

the other thing nobody mentioned is web traffic. september came in around 1.3m, the highest reading on the year and a half of chart i can pull, up about 36% from a year ago.

stock is around $460 and earnings are thursday per that same article.

i get this off altindex, apewisdom and chartexchange do the same for the social side.

am i reading too much into a hiring number two days before a print, or are converting reqs actually a decent tell?

Q2 showed some progress. Those numbers make me more optimistic because they just moved into gaming services and advertising. They also announced their buyback program, that gives it financial flexibility, I'm also watching actual repurchases. The thesis depends on HUYA sustaining gaming revenue growth and improving margins into consistent GAAP operating profits.

Apple just launched their answer to Google Nest and Amazon Echo called the Apple HomeView. Not just that, they are launching a 4k TV. And, the homeview will run on Siri AI which I'm pretty sure is just Gemini. Not to forget, they are also launching a doorbell camera similar to ring owned by Amazon and this will be built in collaboration with LG

Is this bullish for Apple? Lmk your opinion in the comments!

I did this extended write up on Disco Corporation (TYO: 6146). Not financial advice, do your own research but the thesis is;
1. DISCO have a monopoly in the grinders and slicers required for turning silicon wafers into single chips. Almost every AI chip is cut-up by a disco machine.
2. A fab building supercycle is coming. The more chips, the more chip cutting and dicing for disco.
3. Analysts have already re-rated the front end fab equipment companies, and as more front end equipment needs more corresponding backend disco equipment, DISCO should benefit equally.