r/KerrCountyFloods • • Apr 15 '26

Livestream Links

26 Upvotes

We’ll continue updating this post with links for future court proceedings as they become available.

Texas Legislature July 2025 Flooding Events Investigation:

7/23/25

7/31/25 (in Kerrville)

4/27/26

4/28/26

Steward v. Camp Mystic Evidentiary Hearing:

4/13/26 pt. 1

4/13/26 pt. 2

4/14/26 pt. 1

4/14/26 pt. 2

4/15/26


r/KerrCountyFloods • • Aug 28 '25

Camp Mystic Camp Mystic FEMA LOMA Documents

227 Upvotes

About a month ago I submitted an open records request with FEMA to obtain the documentation that was submitted by Mystic during their floodplain "appeals" process. I finally received the documents and I am sharing them at the links below. These documents are all part of public record and have been redacted, so I don't see any issue with posting these documents for the purpose of transparency.

https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-Guadalupe-LOMA-part1

https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-Guadalupe-LOMA-part2

https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-Guadalupe-LOMA-part3

https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-Guadalupe-LOMA-part4

https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-Cypress-Lake-LOMA-part1

https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-Cypress-Lake-LOMA-part2

Here are my thoughts after reviewing the documents:

First, some history on the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Kerr County. The original FIRM was issued in 1979 and was drawn on mylar paper at a scale of 1 inch = 2000 feet. The FIRM was based on a detailed study and hydraulic analysis of the South Fork. A detailed study was not done for smaller creeks (Cypress Creek/Edmunson Creek) but the analysis did account for flow from those smaller creeks into the South Fork. The design rainstorm event was based on USWB Tech Paper No. 40 with a 24 hour total rainfall of about 9.5 inches. The topography was based on USGS maps with a contour interval of 20 feet. The FIRM showed a 100-year flood elevation (BFE) of 1840’ in the middle of the Mystic golf course and 1835’ near the Mystic dam. The large scale size of the map made it difficult to determine which portions of the property were in the floodplain. The only accurate method for determining the floodplain boundary would have been a field survey of the ground elevations throughout the camp. 

In 2011, the paper map was converted into a digital format. FEMA relied on the original hydraulic analysis and topographic data from 1979 and the digitization process carried over many inaccuracies from the original study. Those inaccuracies became highly visible by zooming in and viewing at much smaller scale than was originally intended. Many of the cabins and buildings throughout Mystic were shown to be in the floodplain even though the BFE was unchanged from 1979 to 2011.

In 2013, Mystic hired an engineer/surveyor to perform a field survey to determine which buildings were in the 100-year floodplain and to submit a Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA) to FEMA. A detailed hydraulic study was also performed for the portions of Cypress Creek and Edmonson Creek where there was no published BFE. The field survey determined that the Lowest Adjacent Grade (LAG) outside many of the buildings (39 total) was higher than the BFE. The survey also found several buildings (6 total) where the LAG was lower than BFE. Buildings that were already drawn outside the floodplain were not surveyed. On August 19, 2013, the LOMA was submitted to FEMA requesting 39 buildings be removed from the 100-year floodplain boundary. On October 15, 2013 FEMA approved the LOMA and officially removed a total of 40 buildings from the 100-year floodplain and/or floodway.

Only one LOMA application was submitted in 2013 but four different Letter of Map Change determination documents were issued and summarized below:

  • 13-06-4293A, LOMA, 24 buildings total
  • 14-06-0077A, LOMA-DEN (LOMA denial) 6 buildings (Mystic did not request these buildings to be removed from the floodplain but did include the survey data)
  • 14-06-0062A, LOMA-OAS (Out As Shown), 1 building
  • 14-06-0124A, LOMR-FW, 15 buildings total (specific type of LOMA for buildings mapped in the floodway)

The elevation certificates included with the LOMA application indicate the Highest and Lowest Adjacent Grade, Floor Elevation, and 100-year Base Flood Elevation.

For the cabins on the flats, LAG was about 2 to 6 feet higher than BFE and the floors of the cabins were about 3.5-7.5 feet higher than BFE (freeboard). The ground slopes down along the side of Bug House and corner closest to the river was slightly lower than BFE, so that cabin remained in the 100-year floodplain while the floor is 3.5 feet higher than BFE.

For the cabins on Senior Hill, LAG was about 7 to 22 feet higher than BFE and the floors were about 8.8 to 24 feet above BFE. For Hang Over, the LAG is measured where the wood framing is in contact with the hill below, so that cabin remains in the 100-year floodplain while the floor is 8.8 feet higher than BFE.

At Mystic Cypress Lake, FEMA had not yet performed a detailed study for Cypress Creek to determine BFE’s. Prior to construction of the new camp, Mystic hired an engineer/surveyor to perform a field survey to determine the LAG at the proposed new building locations and to perform a detailed hydraulic study for Cypress Creek. The LOMA application was submitted 9/23/2019 and approved by FEMA on 11/12/2019. FEMA determined that all of the Cypress Lake buildings are outside the 500-year floodplain.

So what does that all mean? The LOMA at Mystic was not the result of a political favor or some purely administrative process. An extensive field survey was conducted, and a detailed hydraulic study of Cypress/Edmonson Creek was performed to supplement FEMA’s detailed study of the South Fork. Many of the buildings appear to be legitimately outside the floodplain. FEMA calls this an “inadvertent inclusion” which is common for older FIRM’s.

For those that are still skeptical of the FEMA floodplain “appeals” process, two more recent FEMA studies provide additional validation that the Mystic buildings are actually outside the 100-year floodplain.

In 2016, FEMA (via global engineering company AECOM/Compass) performed a 1D Base Level Engineering study of the Upper Guadalupe watershed. The focus of the study was to more accurately model smaller creeks and streams (such as Cypress Creek and Edmunson Creek) and to incorporate more accurate LIDAR topography elevation data. This study shows a higher BFE throughout the watershed (about 2.5 feet higher than the current published BFE at Mystic) but the entire flats area is still shown outside the 100-year floodplain. The floodplain boundary from that model can be viewed on the FEMA estBFE Viewer here: https://webapps.usgs.gov/infrm/estbfe/ and the report can be viewed here: https://pxllnk.co/2016-FEMA-BLE-Report

In 2024, FEMA (via AECOM/Compass) performed a 2D Base Level Engineering study of the Upper Guadalupe watershed. The study incorporated increased rainfall amounts from NOAA Atlas 14 (11.7 inches for 24 hour storm, 19% increase compared to previous which was updated in 2018 partly in response to the Wimberley flood and Hurricane Harvey). The study also incorporates shorter duration/higher intensity storms. This study, which I think is preliminary and still being reviewed by FEMA, also indicates a higher BFE throughout the entire watershed (about 4.5 feet higher than the current published BFE at Mystic). Much of the flats area is still shown to be outside the 100-year floodplain. That report can be viewed here: https://pxllnk.co/2024-FEMA-BLE-Report

It is unclear why these newer studies have not yet been incorporated into the Kerr County FIRM yet. FEMA is required to review and/or update the current FIRM every 5 years. The last update to the FIS was in 2020, so maybe the FIRM will be updated soon.

 

A few other thoughts as it relates to the flood at Mystic. Most jurisdictions, including Kerr County, require that new buildings be elevated above 1 foot above the BFE. The 1 foot minimum freeboard height applies to residential, commercial, schools, etc. An additional foot of freeboard height is required for hospitals, police/fire stations, and other critical facilities. At Mystic, the smallest freeboard height is about 3.5 feet at Bug House. Therefore, the current cabins meet the code elevation requirements for critical facilities. This is likely why the cabins were referred to as being “constructed on high, safe locations.”

Regarding Mystic’s emergency plan for floods. They did have a plan. It wasn’t a robust plan, but the plan involved sheltering in the place during a flood “unless told otherwise by the office”. The “unless told otherwise” aspect of the plan on July 4 involved a phased evacuation of the cabins starting with Bug House closest to the river. This seems logical based on the freeboard heights of each cabin. The four cabins closest to Rec Hall have a freeboard height of about 6 to 7 feet. Rec Hall has a freeboard height of 7.5 feet. Absent an evacuation order from the county, it does seem reasonable to shelter in place inside the cabins.

According to the USGS high water marks, the flood was about 14 to 17 feet higher than the 100-year flood elevation and about 4 to 7 feet higher than the 500-year flood elevation at Mystic Guadalupe. At Mystic Cypress Lake, the flood was several feet less than the 100-year flood elevation.

All of the info referenced above can be seen in this interactive map which has the LOMA elevation info, USGS high water marks, and floodplain boundaries from the current FIRM, the 2016 BLE study, and the 2024 BLE study:  arcg.is/T0y5z

I have written previously about the inadequacy of the timing and information included in the NWS flood warnings. A summary can be found here: https://pxllnk.co/Mystic-NWS-Flash-Flood-Warning-Analysis

 

But clearly based on the outcome of July 4, elevating 1 foot above BFE does not provide adequate life safety. The American Society of Civil Engineers has recognized this and in 2025 published updated recommendations to their Flood Resistant Design and Construction standard. For residential and commercial buildings, they now recommend that those buildings be elevated at or above the 500-year flood elevation. Elementary schools would be elevated above the 750-year flood, and hospitals/police/fire stations/critical facilities would be elevated above the 1000-year flood. The previous version of this document is incorporated by reference into the 2024 International Building Code, so these updated recommendations won’t go into effect until the 2027 code cycle at the earliest. However, many local jurisdictions do not adopt the latest code immediately, so it could be even longer until these recommendations get widespread adoption.

If we want to truly prevent this tragedy from happening in the future, we need to have a full picture understanding of what happened in order to implement effective change. While better communication and planning may have helped, the primary issue that needs to be solved is how to be safe during a rapid flood that exceeds the 500-year flood elevation in a matter of a couple of hours. Arguing about LOMA appeals and what is the actual 100-year floodplain boundary doesn’t matter for a flood that is 14-17 feet higher than the 100-year BFE.

While the current proposed legislation does contain some positive changes, many of the weaknesses that were exposed in the July 4 flooding are not adequately addressed in SB1 or HB1. For example, walkie talkies are not required in each cabin and the PA system is not required to have a redundant power source. And while cabins would no longer be allowed in the 100-year floodplain, they would allowed in the 500-year floodplain. Only the areas of camp within the 100-year floodplain would be required to evacuate when an NWS flood warning is issued. Based on what we have learned after the July 4 flood, it seems imperative that cabins in the 500-year floodplain also evacuate (and have a safe location above the 500-year flood to evacuate to). You can read the current language of the bills here and an example of how the bill would impact Mystic/La Junta/HOH.

capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/892/billtext/html/SB00001E.htm

capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/892/billtext/html/HB00001E.htm

https://pxllnk.co/SB1-Examples

EDIT 03/12/2026: fixed broken pdf links


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 12h ago

Discussion You can help prevent another camp tragedy and protect the children from floods!

27 Upvotes

You can help prevent another camp tragedy and protect the children from floods!

The entire nation knows about the many tragic deaths at Camp Mystic during the 2025 flood of the Guadalupe River. The heartbroken grief of parents and their determination to see safety reforms for 'youth camp' businesses has motivated state officials and legislators to pass new laws.

Unfortunately, the consequences of one camp's safety failures won't be enough to encourage voluntary compliance with those laws going forward.

Even now, Camp Mystic supporters continue to argue that the owners of the camp did nothing wrong. They repeatedly claim Mystic did not have to evacuate anyone because none of the river camps evacuate.

Yes, you read that correctly.

Camp Mystic's supporters say none of the river camps ever cared about the safety of children, and they all put the lives of little kids at risk as a matter of doing business.

 

The National Weather Service defines Flash Flood Warnings as:

Flash Flood Warning: Take Action! A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring. If you are in a flood prone area move immediately to high ground. A flash flood is a sudden violent flood that can take from minutes to hours to develop. It is even possible to experience a flash flood in areas not immediately receiving rain.

 

If you ever find out that a river camp in Texas failed to evacuate during an announced Flood Warning or Flash Flood Warning then you should take action.

Report every violation immediately to the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) as well as the Texas Office of the Attorney General.

 


edit:

Information on how to submit reports of safety violations to DSHS is available on the state agency's website:

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/youth-camp-program/complaint-process-youth-camp-program


 

From now on, when the owners of a camp put children in danger, make it your responsibility to see they get shut down and face swift prosecution for putting the lives of children at risk.

Your vigilance can help prevent another disastrous loss of life and ensure laws that require safety are enforced from now on.


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 2h ago

Article After two major floods, Kerrville is rethinking its waterfront parks

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6 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 21h ago

Debris Cleanup/Where’s The Mulch?

8 Upvotes

Forgive me if this has been discussed before but I was told the other day that the mulched organic material was taken somewhere near San Antonio.

Seemingly unrelated, I bought some Hill Country Fair Potting Soil the other day which I had to redistribute for my originally planned use because it’s completely full of large pieces of uncomposted mulch. There are all kinds of wood debris in there from chipped wood, root material, and twigs. As I’m angrily sorting through the unwelcomed giant pieces of wood pieces in my soil that I initially planned for root vegetables, I remembered something I had heard about the mulch from the July 4th flood being shipped to Bexar County, I stopped what I was doing and said “Wait, is this…no…did I just buy this crap imposter soil harvested from my own back yard?”

I did a little more research and on top of the reports that flood debris was chipped and transported to the San Antonio area, I’ve also seen claims that New Earth and Second Nature Compost(both in Bexar County) received some of that material. Both companies manufacture commercial compost, mulch, or soil products. Coincidentally, although I couldn’t find where the HCF Potting Soil is sourced from, I did find that the New Earth brand sells the organic soil mix sold at HEB that I actually have at my house. So yes I bought soil derived from debris my family signed away for someone to take away for free to “help”. Meanwhile the acres and acres of gravel with no top soil sit by my house.

For a few reasons I do regret allowing the non profits to remove the wood debris from our land. One of the reasons I hesitated was because everyone so desperately wanted a sense of normalcy again but yeah, it’s not. This years July flood was devastating to nearby areas because of no top soil. Ours was damaged but not as significantly as nearby neighbors.

I can kind of understand the state wanting to make some of its money back for the enormous costs of the flood but then at the same time, that seems unethical.

Furthermore, I know local farmers and ranchers asked to use some of that material and they were told no because it wasn’t safe. But somehow it’s safe enough for me to buy, put my hands in it, and grow root vegetables out of it for my dinner table? 😡

I have so many questions….

- Can these things be verified?

- Where was the mulch taken?

- What was paid for the mulch?

- If it was safe enough to put into bags and sold to the public, why wasn’t it put back on the river banks where it is desperately needed?

- Do these companies that revived the mulch have political ties?

- Do these companies that bought the mulch make financial political donations?

I love HEB but if I find out that HCF “Potting Soil” came from the flood I’m going to be very disappointed, even more disappointed than I already am that businesses might actually be profiting off of our tragedy.


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 1d ago

Casa Bonita?

6 Upvotes

Does anyone know what will become of Casa Bonita? Will property owners be allowed to rebuild? Will the property be condemned (not sure if this is the right word)? Are there any lawsuits pending which include any of the Casa Bonita homeowners as plaintiffs?


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 2d ago

The idea that h27 is somehow harming the other grieving families

28 Upvotes

Can someone explain this argument to me? I routinely see the pro-Mystic folks suggesting that somehow h27 is insensitive to the other fams who lost loved ones in the floods.

One example is below, but there are dozens of them. The implication is that by suing the people who they believe could have kept their daughters safe or seeking new safety requirements, the H27 families are somehow blocking other areas of inquiry. Even sillier is the idea that by using public support and sentiment as tools in their efforts, they are taking something away from other tragedies on or off the river.

From a Facebook comment posted this week:
Immense compassion and love for the grieving families, not only for the 27, but for all 140 souls who perished. Compassion and support for all grieving, including survivors and first responders, rescue and recovery. All stories deserve to be heard. So many have been driven to silence their grief because the H27 machine demands all the focus.
The H27 machine is well staffed with a publicist, paid influencers, lobbyists (some with their own agenda), and attorneys who are twisting truth to fit a false narrative unfairly demonizing one family. While not all families under that umbrella agree or participate, H27 has become a fire ball of untamed rage that leaves no room for compassion. You either rage with them, or you are deemed to be against them. If you grieve for anyone else, your pain is denied. Your story doesn't count or matter to the machine. By controlling the narrative calling the a Mystic flood, there are those unaware that 113 othe lives were lost that night.
You cannot have a complete investigation without exploring all of the facts, including especially the actual flood - which has been labeled an inland tsunami. When 140 souls died, 119 in Kerr County alone, the investigation must include all of the residents, camps, and businesses along the river. Must include the survivors, witnesses, first responders, othe camp directors, business owners where people were sleeping to get the whole picture. Focusing on one place, after showing glowing support of their bravery from Trump, Abbott, Cruz, Cornyn, and especially Patrick, raises more than an eyebrow.

The Eastlands are good people. Their quiet contributions don't make for catchy headlines. The thousands of stories of how Camp Mystic was key to their growth in character and leadership, and whose values shaped our lives for the better. Even some of the moms have shared their great memories of camp.
The loss is unimaginable. Unfreakingimaginable. Unimaginable for all "sides".


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 2d ago

Article Hill Country businesses get more time to apply for flood recovery grants as holiday season nears

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9 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 3d ago

Camp Mystic: The Great Divide. Alumni vs. Heavens 27

31 Upvotes

I am sick to death of Mystic Alum supporting the Eastland's to the moon and back. They want to blame everyone but their beloved friends for the reason that 27 children are dead to the point of making these types of posts public on social media.

From the public page of a "Mystic Alum":
I'm going to be crystal clear here.
I'm listening in to the bankruptcy hearing for Mystic.
If you have any doubt about the intentions of the Heaven's 27 creditors committee, note the amount of time that their attorneys are using to try to establish how "shocking and nefarious" it is that the Eastland Family should be demonized for continuing to live in thier own houses and use their own cars while in bankruptcy. They claim the Eastlands are so cruel and cold and uncaring.... while completely disregarding that they all lost their homes and a family member as well.

This should tell you everything you need to know about how they have long ago passed the line for "grief" and are firmly in the territory of vengeance. This is a group of parents who are throwing cocktail party fundraisers in their gajillion dollar mansions gleefully instructing their attorneys to try to demonize the Eastlands for continuing to (checking notes) use their cars, even though in one of the filings they have said they will gladly pay for whateever should be owed on this, as well as any utilities or rent that is determined to be owed.

These attorneys have completely lost the right to lecture ANYONE about who is really tone deaf here.

They have also lost the moral high ground on who is at the heart of the acrimony.

I get it... because they want to make sure they get EVERY PENNY they believe they deserve (and can we note that at this time we still have NO IDEA how much they "deserve" or are even entitled to), it's important to characterize the Eastlands as freeloaders for (checking more notes) using their cars to take their kids to school.

There is a huge picture here, but yes, let's please hear more about how shocked and offended we should all be that a 72 year old woman who lost her husband, her home, and now her business, should be characterized as a "freeloader" for living in - not a home - an infirmary on the campgrounds.

They would only be happy if the Eastlands were living in cardboard boxes under an overpass.

Of course, what you'll hear in the media will be the type of pearl-clutching clickbait that fits with the narrative of the higher paid publicist...

Decency and shame are out the window with these people. This is what comes from believing your own press releases.

#judgechrislopez


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 4d ago

Camp Mystic New state prosecutor appointed in Camp Mystic criminal case

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14 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 5d ago

Stay lift order

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27 Upvotes

Now official

- stay lifted next month

- there are indeed motions from the defendants to transfer the liability lawsuits to federal district courts; those have to be decided

- from there everything can proceed, including lawsuits against individuals (injunction that debtors asked for denied); mentions explicitly those lawsuits against the individuals estates; judgments against debtors (which dont include the individual estates) have to be collected within the bankruptcy (which makes sense as LLCs will be liquidated by everyone admission)

- bankruptcy and liquidation of LLCs rolls on...trustee decision between now and monday


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 5d ago

Camp Mystic Judge weighs who should oversee Camp Mystic in bankruptcy case

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20 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 6d ago

Opinion | In 1956, her father planned to run for president. She attended Camp Mystic.

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14 Upvotes

In 1956, her father planned to run for president. She attended Camp Mystic.


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 6d ago

Tuesday’s Hearing?

9 Upvotes

What time will it start? Will audio be available and, if so, how to access it?


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 7d ago

Camp Mystic's motto: Be Ye Kind.*

Post image
113 Upvotes

* = unless it's the parents of dead children we're talking about, in which case, go ahead and accuse those grieving parents of "hateful & repugnant vitriol" for daring to ask why their children died in a flash flood, during a National Weather Service flash flood warning, at a riverside camp located in the middle of Flash Flood Alley. The nerve.

Reading the words of these Mystic minions (& an Eastland relative to boot!), you'd think it was Heaven's 27 that needlessly got a bunch of kids killed & not the other way around...

I will never understand the mentality of people that deem it acceptable to go after grieving parents. The casual cruelty towards those suffering the deaths of their children - it just makes my stomach churn.


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 9d ago

Legal Description from yesterday’s hearing.

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10 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 9d ago

Lawsuits to proceed

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56 Upvotes

So what we learned yesterday

- wrongful death lawsuits can proceed, sent back to state court (remember hearing "they can never be sent back to state court"?)

- collection against the 4 llc from said lawsuits has to wait for bankruptcy which is standard (likely organized liquidation, so makes sense)

- the lawsuits include the individuals and if individuals are liable then there is nothing stopping collection against them (debtors admitted that in their own filings, especially in case of gross negligence)

- we shall see decision on trustee week after

- becoming increasingly clear why debtors started panicking and offering all sorts of concessions right before this...last ditch efforts to get better outcome

https://kerrcountylead.com/5-things-we-learned-from-the-nearly-12-hour-camp-mystic-bankruptcy-hearing/#google_vignette


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 9d ago

Yesterdays Hearing

3 Upvotes

For those that watched the proceedings.. did any particular arguments or individuals stand out to you? Why?


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 10d ago

Camp Mystic Is there a stream for today’s hearing?

8 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 10d ago

Some good info before tomorrow’s hearing.

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16 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 12d ago

Houston Chronicle letter to the editor: Camp Mystic should be leveled to the ground and never rebuilt.

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210 Upvotes

The Houston Chronicle has a series of letters to the editor about Camp Mystic today. One is from a Mystic mother who thinks that critics just want to "destroy Mystic altogether." Another letter is from a reader who wants to destroy camp Mystic altogether.


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 11d ago

Article Camp Mystic supporters pushing to have a bigger voice in court

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27 Upvotes

“The problem is, the bankruptcy process is governed by statute and governed by case law. And the objective of the sale of the land is going to be to ensure the highest and best offer. It’s not to provide therapy. That’s not what the bankruptcy process does.”


r/KerrCountyFloods • • 14d ago

UT San Antonio research team studies 2025 floods to help prepare for future catastrophes

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11 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 16d ago

Camp Mystic Feds seek either trustee or liquidation in Camp Mystic bankruptcy

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41 Upvotes

r/KerrCountyFloods • • 17d ago

Camp Mystic Eastlands fight Texas Rangers’ search warrants in Camp Mystic investigation

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47 Upvotes