r/NBA_Draft • u/okaypaI • 2d ago
I’m concerned about AJ’s shooting
His 3 point shooting has been TERRIBLE, his jumper is terrible. He’s like 2/20 since Summer League. Was it this bad in college? I find it hard to believe such a glaring weakness was overlooked when taking him with the 1st overall pick.
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u/Piranha-Kassapa 2d ago
It was baked in. This is why there was discussion about who the top pick might be instead of him just clearly locking it in.
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u/Coolcat127 2d ago
Yes if he had a good jumper right now he would be on the short list of best prospects of the century. Probably 3rd after LeBron and Wemby genuinely
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u/killaura123456 2d ago
There was no real discussion from educated people
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u/Knighthonor 1d ago
Yeah there was. Just anything like that got shot down here and on the Wizards sub.
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u/Rafael_Doge-Schmutz 2d ago edited 2d ago
the short answer is it's not really concerning.
the longer answer: it's a lot easier to get in a shooting rhythm when the offense is built around you, way more shots and AJ in particular gets to the line so much to help with that rhythm. not only is it always gonna be harder in the NBA, but he's in a unique spot as a #1 pick where he's at most a distant 3rd option. and probably most pertinent to the question, he's reportedly working on retooling his mechanics entirely. which supports what we already knew about him coming in: he wasn't a great shooter to begin with. the learning curve was gonna be sharp without overhauling the mechanics, and it'll probably be some time before we see things settle.
but with all that said, he was I think a 77% free throw shooter in college? he's 10/17 from the stripe in three games so far, 59%. that's the concern for me. I'm pretty sure it was much better in summer league so I'm not worried yet, and it's still so early. but if that doesn't stabilize we'll have a problem.
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u/GGdpcGaming 2d ago
Maybe its just me but I always thought of him as an elite downhill driving forward and that the shot would be a nice cherry on top. It would surely limit his upside if it sucks but he'll also still be fine if it does.
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u/rayquan36 2d ago
They're trying to fix his jumper and say it's a 2 year process.
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u/Cassandrae_Gemini 2d ago
its always so hilarious to me when people who dont watch college ball at all freak the fuck out after a few weeks of nba play.
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u/noknownothing 2d ago edited 2d ago
5 months ago someone posted this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/yXazk8WrQ1
Some concerns in the comments section, including this downvoted gem:
noknownothing • 155d
Whoa! He's not missing like it's short/ long in n out. He's bricking like his shot's broken.
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u/Youngcheeese 2d ago
People getting offended by anyone even mentioning the fact he hasnt shot it well is very telling
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u/OwnYourChildren 2d ago
Classic Reddit. Sucks when having good draft debate requires tolerance for skepticism.
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u/Knighthonor 1d ago
Were you on the Wizard's sub? Because that was an experience. I just left to talk about other prospects for other teams for that reason
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u/North_Concern_7266 2d ago
He has a clunky two motion shot. Good for mid range. Not good for 3pt shooting.
It's highly likely he's just a bad shooter.
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u/According-Witness-80 2d ago
Rookies always struggle with three point shooting right out the gate. It’s definitely gonna be a project but once he gets more comfortable against an nba defense I’m sure it’ll look better. He hasn’t really been taking many of the middys he would be taking in college as well which probably helped him get into a good shooting rhythm.
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u/salamanderman10 2d ago
good lord, people are so obsessed with wanting his jumper to be terrible.
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u/okaypaI 2d ago
Do you see a future superstar in him with that jumper?
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u/-Johnny_Utah- Wizards 2d ago
Young players fix their shot all the time. AJ has innate talents that you can’t teach/fix.
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u/Youngcheeese 2d ago
Young players also never develop one and have problems caused by it way more than they fix it
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u/hardenoverjordan 2d ago
Do you realize he shot like 50 percent from mid range in college? You know how hard it is to do that? His 3 needs work but I’m confident he will be elite from the middy at some point
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u/North_Concern_7266 2d ago
He's a two motion shooter. There's a reason DeRozan can't shoot 3s despite being automatic from middy.
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u/YakFull8300 Jazz 1d ago
So was Bird and he's one of the greatest shooters of all time.
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u/North_Concern_7266 1d ago
Ok. But he's not Larry Legend.
The good 3pt shooters with two motion shots are all time "touch" guys like Larry and Kd. AJ has good touch, but it's not elite enough to overcome wonky mechanics IMO
I think he can probably be better at spot ups, but I don't see pull ups in the future
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u/Power-Fantastic Wizards 2d ago
Bruh he’s 19 and hasn’t played a game in the nba yet. Look up Jason Kidd and his shot early in his career.
Better to get his feet wet in the league and then tinker with the shot after his 1st year.
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u/cheesebabychair Wizards 2d ago
He's 19, good Lord, relax
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u/North_Concern_7266 2d ago
Shooting is pretty innate. If your form is a little janky to begin with (AJ's is), it's usually over.
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u/ShotgunStyles 2d ago
He was good in the midrange so that's why execs are optimistic that he could develop the 3-ball. It was not ignored.
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u/FFTactics 2d ago
He shot 33% from 3 in college, which alleviated a lot of concern.
There should have been more scrutiny if his shot will work in off the dribble situations, since he’ll be a primary on the ball guy.
But take into account Peterson was scouted #1, AJ only moved up due to how little Peterson played.
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u/RayKitsune313 2d ago
I mean Peterson only just jumped AJ in Hs rankings based on the latter half of their senior year. AJ was number one for years before that
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u/Repulsive-Award9483 2d ago edited 1d ago
Aj was number 1 in the 2026 class for years before he reclassed up not 2025. Boozer was actually #1 and Coop was #2 Koa was over DP at 3 in 2022 when the rankings first dropped then DP just kept slowly rising
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u/Professional-Doubt14 2d ago
It is interesting that Wilson seems to have developed a comfortable NBA range shot much faster than AJ.
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u/Rafael_Doge-Schmutz 2d ago
that's got a little more to do with Caleb not taking any outside shots at all, we just didn't have a sample size to work with. and fwiw, it's still a small sample size, in four preseason games he's 7/24 (29%) from three and 10/18 (56%) from the stripe. I'm a huge (and biased Carolina) fan but so far all we've actually seen is a willingness to take those shots
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u/Wavepops 2d ago
To be expected. He has the type of jump shot that’s good for middies but needs refinement into a one shot motion for threes
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u/gnalon 2d ago
A) Rome wasn’t built in a day, it was clearly not gonna be a year 1 thing when guys like Trae and KD were sub 30% as rookies. The extra distance and how much harder you have to work for those looks (when you’re athletic as Dybantsa in high school/college defenses are begging you to take threes) are no joke
B) I don’t know what you really could’ve expected, I had him 3rd and thought his upside was more of a Giannis lite where he’s not gonna be an all-time finisher/transition threat but have more of a midrange game. If he is the midpoint of RJ Barrett and Giannis that’s good enough to be a star, and I’m sure RJ Barrett was a terrible shooter as a rookie as well.
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u/AceK514 Wizards 1d ago
Tbh he will be fine . He’s 687 FTA at 79.6% Pre-NBA per Synergy (NCAA + HS) and shot high 40’s ( 46% per Bart) on non-rim 2’s at BYU. I think the 3 point has never been good in his life but based on his touch, I think he’s going to figure out to be at least an average shooter in his prime.
He has tweaked a bit his shot since college so only time will tell if it’s hurting him more than it is beneficial.
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u/SoSoSlick 1d ago
People want so bad for something to be "concerned" about this kid. First it was his defense which he's come out and shut people up about. Now its his shot, which just about every rookie has to adjust to coming into the NBA. Granted he needs to not be a liability when left open from 3 for sure, but he also doesn't need to be Kon either. Let the dude develop for more than 3 PRE-SEASON games... Good lord....
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u/capitalistsanta 1d ago
shooting takes so much time to get good at man. Damian Lillard this summer shot 100,000 made 3s, he’s at the end of his career. If you look in the news, he was trying to get to 10,000 makes a month a couple years back. He has had maybe 5 years of quality basketball shooting training in his life. He also will improve his hand eye coordination 100x over the next decade+. More worried about decision making and body language and coachability. In a couple years, judge his shooting
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u/AlbatrossKey5736 1d ago
He was okay in college. Pre season is pre season. Really not sure what else to say.
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u/sk932123 17h ago
Small sample size. I believe Alex sarr missed EVERY shot in his first summer league.
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u/AyAySlim Wizards 2d ago
Maybe or maybe he’s Giannis who shot like 30 and 25% in the years he won MVP
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u/Youngcheeese 2d ago
He would need DPOY level defense, better playmaking and elite rebounding as well as shooting better to be giannis
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u/siwelis10304 2d ago
Not concerned at all at this stage because he's 6'9" with a handle, excellent athleticism and knows to penetrate or pass.
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u/ThatDudeWay 2d ago
He's 19. Has Trae around leading the charge and will 💯 get AJ easier shots his rookie year. Jump shot isn't a problem at all.
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u/JayyyyyBoogie 2d ago
Shooting can be taught, so if he puts the time in and works on it he can at least be competent.
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u/Accomplished-Habit38 2d ago
Its very unlikely he ever becomes a high high end 3pt shooter based on his profile, but like others said that was baked in. He really doesnt need to be that when the much more important part of the game for him will be defensive disruption/rebounding and general positioning on that end for a young player to not fall into the jaylen brown (popular comp) school of off ball defense. Trae is gonna be there for years. Tre johnson is gonna be there for years. Kyshawn is gonna be there to shoot. Its not his job
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u/Michael-of 1d ago
AJ had bust written all over him. I actually think if he works on his game he’ll be fine but it’s not gonna come for another few years. Caleb Wilson has immediate star vibes.
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u/chaide123 Bulls 2d ago
Most college players need years to develop nba shooting. Tougher defenses, more physical play and far 3 pt line. Neither AJ or Peterson were great shooters. Both are struggling
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u/Lopsided_Ad3341 3h ago
He's gonna be a great mid range shooter
3 ball is definitely a concern but I think he'll get to atleast average , assuming he learns to take the right 3 pt shot selection
But I very much believe in the mid range, and in his ability to get to his spots to get it off
I've noticed he takes tough shots in summer league and preseason. I think he's embracing just growing his game and knowing there will be growing pains.
But would like to see him have a better shot diet, that's a big reason they're not falling in my opinion
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u/Joshottas 2d ago
He does so many other things well. He’ll put in work and be fine. Anthony Edwards had much worse splits and now he’s an efficient shooter on high volume. No one is worried or concerned about a guy who has 3 preseason games under his belt.