r/SMCIDiscussion • u/asphaltbabe • 9d ago
Bull-Thesis 🐮 Short interest increase
The latest published short-interest report still shows 95,156,102 shares short as of September 15, up 1.84% from the preceding report. The next report is scheduled for October 9. No substantial covering has been confirmed.
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u/Jvwjvw 8d ago
SMCI alert — short interest drops 8.2%
What changed: Newly released data for the September 30 settlement show SMCI short interest fell by 7,792,962 shares, from 95,156,102 to 87,363,140—an 8.19% decline. Short interest decreased from roughly 17.3% to 15.8% of float, while days to cover fell from 2.66 to 2.25.
Why it matters: This is the first meaningful reduction since July and indicates that a sizable group of bearish positions was closed or reduced
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u/Southern-Oil1599 8d ago
This has the set up to be explosive.
Beautiful 3 month chart uptrend w/ some consolidation.
Management has cleaned things up behind the scenes w/ the independent investigation clearance, c -suite upgrades & too much to list - dyor.
SMCI will be on their best behavior going forward because they have to be & the narrative will change for the better as a result - only further adding to the asymmetric upside.
The street loves a good comeback story & the rerate will acknowledge that.
More Cisco partnerships incoming as well as the Terafab announcement on the horizon.
11/3 🤫🔥
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u/Jvwjvw 9d ago
SHORT interest increasing is insane unless the "Mandatory convertible Preferred Stock" investors are shorting now to lock in their profit. In June2026 supermicro raised $4.3 Billion thru Preferred Stock at a likely $33/share which will convert to common stock in June2029. This is about an additional 150 millions shares. So this is about 18% of the company after 2029 dilution. They get to convert (worst case) at 33 and so why not short now at 42 ? They can cover the short in 2.5 years and hold the cash in the mean time, as well as getting the 7% dividend.
What a wild ride to hold SMCI-- stock is down 8% in 24 hours from 45.60 to 41.88.
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u/Alternative_Spirit65 9d ago
Here that was selloff resaon yesterday. Anthrophic useing other methode. It is 70mrd and they got 50mrd because finanzmethode for report. Was shok moment but wrong headline in financial times.
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 9d ago
Still up 65% in less than 3 months, if u can't see the uptrend, welp..
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u/Alternative_Spirit65 9d ago
Yo we wll hammer that upper trend line massivly after next earnings. 😀
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u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 9d ago
Bro that’s not a flex. Considering where this was trading the last 3 years
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 9d ago
Looking at the past for ever bring nothing :
It’s holding better and better and the bear case is weaker each day passing by , earnings are in 3 weeks .. let’s see :)1
u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 9d ago
So much for holding
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 9d ago
It can do +6% the next day , volatility … nothing new at all
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u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 8d ago
Looks like uncle Charlie got us again with the news after hours
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 8d ago
Selling 0.3% of his shares ?
AH is flat, not sure what you are talking about
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u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 8d ago
Well there is that I was talking about the guy pleading guilty to smuggling chips. Sp will go down
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 8d ago edited 8d ago
Company is still not incriminated , this « news »just confirm what we knew so far , that these 3 people commited smuggling on their behalf for personal gain .
If Smci goes down , it’ll be to follow general market / sector trend , and not because of an already acknowledged information. Noise for now
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u/asphaltbabe 9d ago
Why short at 42 when this is going over 120?
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u/returnofhorror 5d ago
$120? You think this stock is going to $120 before it has a major pullback? When his this stock ever went up for a month straight with no pullbacks?
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u/asphaltbabe 5d ago
February 2024
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u/returnofhorror 4d ago
Also that was before there was massive trapped longs with super high averages just waiting to break even. There’s going to be massive sell orders between 47-51. That’s why stocks that are on a run and are significantly down from their ATH are dangerous. I can’t remember what price exactly it needs to hold but it’s just below $38 if it goes much lower than that and doesn’t immediately wick up, I’d be more the nervous about the short term. This is what big money does, they bring the price up to fomo everyone into thinking it’ll never be this low again, even though it’s already way up, they hold it in that area for awhile and then slowly bleed it down again. I know you guys are excited but keep your head in the game, remove your emotions
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u/returnofhorror 4d ago
It pulled back at the end of February nice try. Stocks don’t just go straight up
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u/asphaltbabe 4d ago
Sure they do when they are not controlled and manipulated by the market makers
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u/returnofhorror 4d ago
Oh ok. Good to know. The market makers rely on retail fomo, and people who don’t understand the basics about how stocks move to make their money. Ever notice those random wicks that go down like $1.50 and go right back up? That’s stop loss hunting, and if you get hit on a stop loss more than a few times a year , you don’t know how to read the chart and you’re the dumb money they rely on. The big money who moves the prices of stocks usually don’t care about those small stocks, but they know you do, and if they push the price up for awhile you’ll buy more high, and probably fold low. So basically if you wanna stop them, you have to get off of Reddit and learn what you’re looking at
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u/Jvwjvw 9d ago
it's locking in a 33% profit after 5 months and still being able to collect a dividend of 7% for 3 years on $4 Billion. That's a huge incentive to short now.
Still -- I'm not sure this is what's happening as short interest has been fairly steady. BUT, this is a very sound investment strategy for those Preferred Stock holders.
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u/Cultural_Disparities 9d ago
Im seriously considering leaps
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