14
u/Stefan_161 25d ago
Wegen den extrem tiefen Hypothekarzinsen sind die Immobilienpreise so hoch wie sie jetzt sind. Steigen die Zinsen auf einen normalen Wert, werden die Immobilienpreise an vielen Orten sinken. Wenn es sich aber gleich verhält wie in den 90ern, sinken die Immobilienpreise in der ganzen Schweiz nur nicht in Zürich
11
u/Strange-Spot-3306 25d ago
zumal ja auch nicht die Nachfrage in Zürich plötzlich sinken wird, dafür haben wir eine viel zu geringe Leerstandsziffer. Das einzige was da eine Bubble sein könnte sind die völlig überteuerten Luxuswohnungen.
1
u/Beautiful_Courage387 25d ago
Ich glaube nicht wirklich an diese "Leerstandziffer" da ist noch vieles mehr "leer" und effektiv richtig "ungenutzt" da wird soviel Geld parkiert um auf höhere Preise zu spekulieren in der Zukunft. ich weiss es da ich viel in dieser Branche unterwegs bin.
2
2
2
u/Majestic_Wrap_7006 24d ago
"normalen wert" was soll denn ein normaler wert sein?
0
u/Stefan_161 24d ago
Die 0% die wir jetzt haben sind nicht normal. 3% wären schon eher normal
2
u/Majestic_Wrap_7006 24d ago
warum
0
u/Stefan_161 24d ago
Normalerweise will niemand Geld ausleihen, ohne dafür etwas zu bekommen. Nur weil momentan der Schweizer Franken so stark ist, legen viele Menschen Geld ohne Zinsen im Schweizer Franken an, weil das momentan besser ist als bei einer schwachen Währung Zinsen zu bekommen. Genau diese Situation könnte sich sehr schnell ändern.
1
u/Majestic_Wrap_7006 24d ago
was könnte denn diese Situation ändern?
0
u/Stefan_161 24d ago
Zum Beispiel könnten sich Dollar und Euro wieder aufwerten, das glaube ich persönlich jedoch nicht
2
u/fishanddipflip 23d ago
Denkst du drei prozent sind realistisch? Wir haben einen starken franken seit ewigkeiten und sogar während covid hatten wir einen leitzins von unter 2%
6
u/redditseddit4u 25d ago
Seems like this could be lazy analysis.
Only 23 cities were in the study and vague details on what criteria was used for the rankings….
2
u/no_underage_trading 24d ago
math student here. and yes they just measured different factors like price to income and price to rent etc. and compared that index with historical values. this doesnt measure if its a bubble or not, eg if interest rates are low we might see high price to rent ratios without a bubble being present.
nothing in this factor analysis tries even to eatimate any probability.so the real result is “zurich looks expensive and vulnerable to changing conditions” instead of “highest bubble risk”.
1
u/Unlucky-Golder 24d ago
Fully agree, the city with the biggest real estate bubble is whatever mediumish city with a single major source of employment on the verge of disappearing
3
u/SpiritedInflation835 25d ago
Housing is still in huge demand in Zurich. The problems begin when the job market contracts.
1
3
u/Stock-Variation-2237 24d ago
why would there be a bubble risk in Geneva or Zurich ?
The demand far exceeds the offer. Moreover, the overflow is all over their neighbouring country and cantons. In case of market contraction this buffer would prevent a sudden abrupt price decrease.
4
u/naza-reddit 25d ago
Would be nice to see the same study for previous years. Been hearing of a housing bubble since forever … and no Geneva???
8
u/No-Click5139 25d ago
Geneva 1.12 its right there
1
1
u/turbo_dude 25d ago
I think the issue is that the world used to have a big ass recession every few years and we haven’t really had a proper one for almost 20 years now. It’s not normal.
2
25d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/IllIIllIIlIIII 24d ago
A bubble is characterized by a significant and sustained overvaluation of property prices that typically becomes evident only after a correction. Key warning signs include a disconnect between prices, incomes, and rents, alongside excessive credit growth and construction activity. By evaluating these indicators, the index highlights markets that may be vulnerable to correction. Although it does not predict the timing of price declines, changing macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, or housing supply can act as catalysts.
2
u/Unlucky-Golder 24d ago
Over the last 20 years, Zurich has experienced the strongest increase in housing prices among the cities covered by the study, driven by low interest rates and significant supply constraints. The market remained exceptionally tight, with vacancy rates close to zero and the supply of owner-occupied homes far below historical levels. Strong competitiveness and continued demand from international talent, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence, have fueled housing demand. However, bubble risk remains high, with Zurich’s exceptionally high and still-rising price-to-rent ratio reflecting the market’s increasing dependence on low financing costs.
Not impressed by the analysis...
2
u/Pgapete1960 24d ago
Explain to me like I’m 5 years old what happens when the bubble bursts.
2
u/freshliketeddy22 24d ago
There is demand (what u want) and offer (what is there to get). Right now the demand for living spaces in zurich is high, many people want to live in zurich so the price to live there goes up. If no one would want to live there, the price has to go down or no one will rent/buy there. Thats why many people see living places as an investment, so they buy houses and apartments. When the offered apartments outweigh the demand, means more living spaces than people asking for it: thats when the bubble bursts. The living spaces will lose massive value, there will be many empty apartments/houses. I hope I explained it correctly 😁
1
1
u/AvidSkier9900 19d ago
your parents can’t pay what they owe the bank every month and have to sell the apartment you live in. But all other parents of your friends at school also have to sell their apartments, and eventually there are so many apartment for sale that nobody wants to buy them anymore. Then prices of apartments fall by a lot and your parents do not have the money to pay back what they borrowed from the bank in the first place. What happens then is called “your parents go bankrupt”. They lose all their money and strange people will come to your place early in the morning and take away everything you own. Then you and your family will be very poor.
This is +/- what happened in the 1990’s.
1
1
u/TalbyM 24d ago
Not sure about the Genevan property situation - although I live in GE & a recent evaluation suggested a 25% increase in value after 9 years - but have been watching the housing market in Geneva adjacent Vaud for a while now & can say that there are a lot of nice places taking a LONG time to sell. My guess is that the cull in the UN organizations is probably having an impact on properties within commute range. Suppose this means the mid-terms & whether the following two years are constrained lame ducks with reduced warmongering or started by Jan 6th type crisis followed by increased madness may be the decisive factor even here ..
1
1
u/Mammoth_Reach_6366 24d ago
Well, no matter what some people might get used to, standing in a queue of 40 people waiting to see an apartment is NOT normal.
1
u/Mr_Delitzsch 24d ago
Hope it blows up soon and also the health system with its +4% annual compound raise that will sooner or later make it unsustainable. 😁
1
u/Reasonable_Check_749 22d ago
It’s projected to be +20% in some canton for next year :)
Let’s hear what they have to say in few days
1
u/HATECELL 23d ago
Doesn't surprise me, Zürich's housing prices are insane. Even with the higher wages than in the surrounding areas, living in Zürich is crazy expensive.
Among Zürich's university students it has become common to live in Winterthur, as the affordable appartments in Zürich are so far away from Uni Zürich and ETH that a well connected place in Winterthur offers a quicker commute.
That said, Winterthur is basically "Little Zürich", and it's housing costs are also quickly rising
1
u/FallenSkyLord 23d ago
Given the lack of housing available in Geneva compared to the demand it looks nothing like a bubble. I assume it's the same thing with Zürich. I don't know what the methodology but this looks more like "where housing is overpriced compared to income" rather than where there's a bubble
1
1
47
u/RJA220 25d ago
At least the correct flag. r/BUENZLI will be happy