Last Friday, I noticed many people starting to buy MU call options. I managed to pick one up near the close at a very favorable price. Perhaps I was lucky this time
However, I still have a positive outlook on MU

A few more questions:

1. For AI/Semi or any high growth stocks, do you have confidence on your key holdings long term, especially if they are going further down?
   
2. Do you have a diversified portfolio that could weather the short term, or even mid term storm?
   
3. What are your ideas of diversification, stocks in different sectors with various risk levels, mixed stocks and cash/bond
   
4. Did you FOMO when the market was hot, especially on many speculative stocks, high PE stocks based on positive narratives? When people are greedy, you are also greedy?
   
5. What are your strategies to do BTFD, do you dare? When people are afraid, you are also afraid?
   
6. Have you ever gone all in (100%)stocks, even on margin?
   
7. Have you ever sold out all your stocks and gone all cash or bonds?

There are no standard answers to these questions because people situation, personality, tolerance and time frame are different. All long term investors need to find their comfort zone and stick to it with conviction and discipline to be successful, IMHO.

Someone just bought $435,000 of CoreWeave, $CRWV, puts betting the stock keeps falling.

Contract: $50 puts expiring Feb. 19, 2027

Size: 649 contracts at about $6.70 each

Swept across exchanges and bought mostly at the ask, a sign of urgency

Breakeven: about $43.30 by expiration

What should small traders do this week

On Holding (ONON) is a Swiss sportswear brand backed by Roger Federer, who came on board as an investor and partner in 2019. It sells in more than 90 countries, has around 70 of its own stores worldwide, and about 30% of people globally now recognize the brand. It’s had a rough year on the stock market, but I think On has become one of the most attractive names in sportswear right now, and at current prices the stock looks really attractive too.

The brand is going way beyond running

On started out as a running shoe company, and running is still the heart of the business. But over the last few years it has quietly grown into a full sports brand. It’s already a serious player in tennis, where Federer helped design its tennis line, and it has a strong presence in trail running, gym training, and everyday sneakers that people wear just for style. Its apparel business is growing even faster than its shoes, up about 48% last quarter, as On turns into a head-to-toe brand rather than just a shoe company.

Now it’s adding two of the biggest opportunities in sport.

Football (soccer)

Last month On signed Kylian Mbappé on a 10-year deal, pulling him away from Nike after almost 20 years. Mbappé signed with Nike when he was 8 years old, so this is a huge statement. He’s the all-time top scorer in World Cup history, plays for Real Madrid, and has one of the biggest followings of any athlete on the planet. On is building him boots using its own LightSpray technology, a robotic process that sprays the shoe’s upper in one piece, and it had a prototype on his feet within 48 hours of the announcement.

I don’t think he’ll be the last big name. Once a star like Mbappé makes a move like this, other players start paying attention, and I’d expect On to build out a whole roster of footballers over the next few years.

Here’s why that matters so much. Growing up, I played a lot of soccer and was a massive Ronaldo fan. In my country, the only reason people bought Nike was because Ronaldo wore Nike. Not the technology, not the price, not the brand history. It didn’t matter who you were or where you lived, you wanted Nike because Ronaldo wore them. That’s the kind of pull On just got access to. Football is the most popular sport in the world, and the global football footwear market alone is expected to be worth around $38 billion by 2030. Even a small slice of that is a big deal for a company On’s size.

Golf

On is also launching into golf in 2027, with Federer front and center. The company’s reasoning is simple: golf has the highest spending per participant of any sport. Golfers spend on shoes, apparel, travel and lifestyle, and they’re used to paying premium prices. For a brand like On, which rarely discounts and sells mostly at full price, that’s a perfect fit.

Why new sports help the whole brand

Every new sport brings a whole new audience into the brand. A kid who buys On football boots because Mbappé wears them, or a golfer who picks up On golf shoes, is a lot more likely to buy On sneakers, running shoes or apparel next. That’s exactly how Nike and Adidas built their empires: win fans through the athletes, then sell them everything else. On is now starting to run the same playbook.

This matters because running is getting crowded

The running shoe market is very competitive right now, with a lot of pressure from fast-growing Chinese brands. It’s hurting even the biggest names, and Nike’s stock is down over 40% this year. Pure running brands are fighting over the same customers. Getting into sports where athletes drive demand gives On a way to stand out that most of its competitors simply don’t have.

The business is growing fast

On has gone from roughly $1.3 billion in sales in 2022 to about $3.6 billion in 2025, growing 30% last year alone. For 2026 it expects around $4.4 to $4.5 billion. Last quarter it did about $1.08 billion in sales, and a few things stood out:

• Sales through its own stores and website grew about 34%, and now make up nearly half of all sales
• Asia is exploding, with sales up around 55%, led by Japan, South Korea and China
• Apparel grew about 48%

It’s also very profitable for a shoe company. Gross margins are around 65%, which is among the best in the industry, because On sells mostly at full price and more and more directly to customers. And it has about $1.5 billion in cash on hand, so it can fund all this expansion comfortably.

Management’s outlook is very strong

At its Investor Day in September, On laid out its plan through 2029:

• Around $6.8 billion in sales by 2029, nearly double this year
• Sales growing in the high teens every year
• Gross margins staying above 65%
• Profit margins (adjusted EBITDA) above 22% by 2029, with profits growing more than 20% a year
• Its first-ever share buyback, up to $1 billion through 2029

The founders also said On is on track to significantly beat the targets it set at its last Investor Day in 2023, so this is a team with a track record of delivering. The stock jumped about 13% on the day of the announcement.

The best part is that management says these targets assume only a small contribution from football and golf. The 2029 plan is built mainly on running, sneakers and apparel. So if Mbappé and golf take off, that’s extra upside on top of an already ambitious plan.

And the stock is cheap compared to where it’s been

ONON trades around $35 a share, a market cap of roughly $10.5 to $11 billion. That’s down from about $15.5 billion at the end of 2025 and well off its 52-week high of around $51. The drop came mainly from one slightly disappointing quarter in August, when sales came in a bit below expectations. Meanwhile, the company is guiding to almost double its sales by 2029, buying back up to $1 billion of its own stock, and just signed one of the biggest names in football.

A fast-growing, highly profitable premium brand with Federer and Mbappé on board, new sports opening up, and a $1 billion buyback, at a valuation near multi-year lows? I think this one deserves a serious look.

My plan

To be clear, I don’t see this as a buy-and-hold-forever stock. I’m looking at it as a 3 to 5 year play. That lines up with management’s 2029 targets, the early years of the Mbappé deal, and the golf launch. If On delivers on even part of that, I think the stock has real room to run from here. I’m not planning to hold it longer than that, but for the next few years, I think the potential is there.

What's your opinion on this

Futures were up big this morning (Nasdaq +1.3%) with NVDA, AVGO, and INTC all green premarket. Intel got a JPM upgrade to Neutral which helped.

But I'm skeptical this bounce holds. S&P needs to reclaim 7,800 to change the technical picture, and until then every rip looks like a fade to me. The 10Y is still sitting around 5.08% which keeps pressure on everything.

The real test is earnings this week — TSLA, NFLX, META all report. That's what decides whether this was a dip-buying opportunity or a dead cat bounce.

Hi, It's great connecting with you Here on Reddit.

How have you been?.

I was wondering if I can ask a few questions about a new idea I have been contemplating on and see what you think of it with your qualifications skills and experienc?.

I have an offering for a financial wealth product, Passbook, for starting when you are born and getting into a plan for life to assist you save and invest for retirement using the benefits of compounding and dollar cost averaging?

I recall when I was in my primary school, early year 1, a bank ( bank of New Zealand) visited our school and open ed a passbook bank account with some money, be it 50 cents or a dollar or more. This is only the beginning to taking that first step to start savings. Whenever the bank visited the school since, I always had some funds to keep depositing into the savings account. This savings initiative could and should have continued through high school and university but I was never advised on the benefits of this strategy until later years of my work life towards retirement. It is critically important to have a Robert kiyosaki for children from they moment they are born to be guided accordingly. To day obviously you have a lot more options as the passbook accounts not longer exists but digitally I think it can exist in a digital form.

At the same time, leverage mentorship (conservative to aggressive) to maximize the returns accordingly. Use your rich dad or poor dad (equivalent to Robert kiosk) or use our versions. And if you wish to use AI/ML, we will incorporate those into our offering shortly.

This will be a yearly subscription service for life membership.

Although I cannot guarantee you to be the next Warren buffet but the strategy is something I have been doing it since primary school years and I think it would form a great tool for kids for generations.

I would love to connect and have a chat if you are open to a conversation session?

I appreciate this may be not the most appropriate way to approach on this topic, but it is a genuine offering to help with giving something back to the community and help create a future for every child.

Look forward to hearing from soon.

Thanks in advance.

PS. If you are or not interested I would appreciate if you can introduce or refer any of your contacts who may be of benefit to me.

Regards.

Sell in May and go away gets quoted every spring and laughed at every fall, so I tested both halves of it on daily SPY candles from January 2000 to the end of 2025 in Agenticks. $10k start, commission and slippage taken out of every trade, and its price only so dividends arent in either number.

The rules were as simple as the saying. One version buys on the first trading day of November and sells on the first trading day of May. The other does the exact opposite and only holds May through October.

November to April:

• 27 trades, one per winter
• 18 of them made money (66.7%)
• profit factor 3.25
• $10,000 finished at $27,691, up 177%

May to October:

• 26 trades, one per summer
• 19 of them made money (73.1%)
• profit factor 1.88
• $10,000 finished at $16,543, up 65%

So the summer half actually won more often and still made about a third of what the winter half did. The summer losses were the big ones, 2008 alone took about $2,750 off the account between May and November, and 2001 and 2002 took another $2,800 between them.

Winter wasnt clean either. Its worst years were 2000-01, 2007-08 and 2008-09, and that last one bought SPY at about 99 in November 2008 and sold it at about 88 the following May.

Costs barely mattered here, $179 over 26 years on the winter side, because it only trades twice a year.

Multiply the two halves together and you land at roughly 4.6x, which is about what SPY itself did over the same window, so going away in May meant sitting in cash through a half that still added 65%.

Hi, It's great connecting with you Here on Reddit.

How have you been?.

I was wondering if I can ask a few questions about a new idea I have been contemplating on and see what you think of it with your qualifications skills and experienc?.

I have an offering for a financial wealth product, Passbook, for starting when you are born and getting into a plan for life to assist you save and invest for retirement using the benefits of compounding and dollar cost averaging?

I recall when I was in my primary school, early year 1, a bank ( bank of New Zealand) visited our school and open ed a passbook bank account with some money, be it 50 cents or a dollar or more. This is only the beginning to taking that first step to start savings. Whenever the bank visited the school since, I always had some funds to keep depositing into the savings account. This savings initiative could and should have continued through high school and university but I was never advised on the benefits of this strategy until later years of my work life towards retirement. It is critically important to have a Robert kiyosaki for children from they moment they are born to be guided accordingly. To day obviously you have a lot more options as the passbook accounts not longer exists but digitally I think it can exist in a digital form.

At the same time, leverage mentorship (conservative to aggressive) to maximize the returns accordingly. Use your rich dad or poor dad (equivalent to Robert kiosk) or use our versions. And if you wish to use AI/ML, we will incorporate those into our offering shortly.

This will be a yearly subscription service for life membership.

Although I cannot guarantee you to be the next Warren buffet but the strategy is something I have been doing it since primary school years and I think it would form a great tool for kids for generations.

I would love to connect and have a chat if you are open to a conversation session?

I appreciate this may be not the most appropriate way to approach on this topic, but it is a genuine offering to help with giving something back to the community and help create a future for every child.

Look forward to hearing from soon.

Thanks in advance.

PS. If you are or not interested I would appreciate if you can introduce or refer any of your contacts who may be of benefit to me.

Regards.

Today marks the 39th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash known as “Black Monday.”  I remember “Black Monday”, October 19, 1987 when the Dow Jones dropped 22 percent in one day.  It was a strange, scary feeling.  I owned an advertising agency and the phones just stopped ringing in the early afternoon.  The markets were crashing and everyone was watching to see where the bottom was.  

There was no CNBC but we did have FNN (Financial News Network) and of course CNN was on cable.  There was no internet, if you wanted to place a trade you had to call a broker or go to their office in person.  I worked on the 17th floor of the Statler Towers in Buffalo.  On the first floor was a Charles Schwab office.  I took the elevator down to see what was happening.  Everyone was on the phone, you could tell that some clients were panicking, the brokers were trying to reassure clients that the world wasn’t ending.  I remember placing a trade to buy Capital Cities/ABC around 2:00 in the afternoon.  I should have waited, the stock kept dropping for the next 2 hours.  

I went back to our office. Everyone was gathered around the tv.  No phone calls were coming in, our clients were all watching tv as well.  By 2:30, the broadcast networks had broken into their soap opera lineup to go to live coverage of the markets.  When the closing bell rang at 4:00, there was a sense of relief that the market hadn’t fallen even further.  I called one of my clients, a large car dealer, I could sense the fear in his voice when he told me to cancel his ad that was scheduled to run on Thursday.  He said you could hear a pin drop in his dealership.  There were no calls and no one was coming in to look at a car, everyone was waiting to see what was coming the next day.  

It felt like the world was on pause.  I’ve lived through many market sell-offs since that day in 1987, but none have felt as scary as that day, when it felt like there was no bottom to the selling.  Thankfully, we have not had another one day, 22 percent drop, since that fateful day in October 1987. 

Three months later in January 1988, I founded Lyons Capital Management.  Publicly traded stocks and privately owned companies were essentially on sale at below book value.  It was a great time to be a buyer if you had a long term horizon.  Some of the investments we made then for Lyons Capital Management are still held today almost 40 years later. 

Lyons Capital Management continues to operate today as a subsidiary of Prime Media Investments, Orchard Park, NY.

Hi everyone! SPYR News earlier talks about an agreement with Ledjr AI. Could be wrong but SPYR liabilities went from around 28 million to around 700k more or less. Ledjr AI is a revenue company also. So they’ve lowered the liabilities a good amount. Based off the PR they also have a goal of pursuing an uplist* to NASDAQ or NYSE eventually. My other post was on AMFN and I found that around 1 cent and it eventually went to 20 cents. I’ve been commenting SPYR since the 0.0005 range. I don’t know why y’all downvote, this isn’t some discord or stock course. Part of this is I want others to succeed. Do your DD if you would like. Not financial advice

Imagine stocks and Pokémon had a baby that would be stockpet. Hand drawn pets. If your stock does well your pet evolves if your stock does bad your pet slowly dies until it enters the graveyard.

Pretty busy earnings week coming up with TSLA, META, NFLX and quite a few others reporting.

After the selling we saw in tech last week, I'm curious how the market reacts. Wouldn't surprise me to see some big moves in either direction, especially with QQQ.

One thing I've learned over the years is that a company can report great numbers and still get hammered if expectations were too high. Sometimes waiting for the reaction makes more sense than trying to guess it beforehand.

I put together my Week Ahead with the major earnings, economic calendar and SPY/QQQ levels if anyone wants to check it out:

Week Ahead: October 19–23

Anyone planning to trade these earnings, or waiting until after the reports?

Am i cooked? Im just doing the opposite of market expectation which is black monday