The Celtics have a really deep roster right now with 14 plausible rotation players under standard NBA contracts and Devin Carter on a 2-way. It reminds me of that 2020-2021 stretch when we 12+ legitimate players plus draft picks coming. While it's fun to have all that potential on the roster, realistically you play an 8-man rotation in the playoffs.
We know what happened after - Brad made a number of consolidating trades:
Kemba + 2021 1st for Horford.
Romeo Langford, Josh Richardson, the 2022 1st, and a 2028 swap for Derrick White.
Theis, Nesmith, and 2023 1st for Brogdon; then Brogdon, Rob Williams, 2024 1st, 2029 1st for Jrue Holiday. So Holiday ultimately cost Rob Williams, Nesmith, Theis, and three 1sts, over two trades. I think that's a potential model for how we might consolidate assets for a star player.
Here's what future seasons look like.
2026-27 season:
We have a big TPE from the Simons trade that expires, but it's hard to find matching salaries that would make sense to send out, unless we're sending out Derrick White or a combination of Robinson and Hauser. It's probably not that important that we do something to roll it over because TPEs hard cap you at the first apron and we're going to be close in 2027.
2027 offseason:
Garza and Conley are the free agents, taking us down to 12 contracts.
We have our own 1st round pick - probably a low pick making about $3M.
I expect one or both of the Carter and Mitchell two-way contracts to have been converted to a regular NBA deal. So we'd be at 14 or 15 contracts without any additions.
We're basically at the first apron if George opts in; if he opts out and signs a longer deal instead (e.g. 2 year, $80M) then we'd have enough room under the first apron to use the NTMLE (what we got Mitchell Robinson on).
At this point, we have more midsized tradable contracts (Queta at $12.5M, Walsh at $5M).
Scheierman is eligible for an extension. The question is whether at that point he'll look like a player that other teams would try to poach with the NTMLE. If so, he might get a contract in that range - this is what Stevens did with Rob Williams, for instance.
2028 offseason:
Paul George comes off the books, unless he's extended.
Mitchell Robinson has an opt-out.
If we haven't traded it, we have the 2028 Clippers/76ers pick from the JB trade. If it's a high pick, it's a swap. Top 5 picks will have a ~$10M+ salary by then. If it's a low pick, then we keep our own pick (worst of ours and SAS).
Hugo is eligible for an extension.
With the Pritchard extension kicking in, we'll still be right at the cap. We'll be able to use the NTMLE.
2029 offseason:
This is when Derrick White's contract expires, as well as Mitchell Robinson and Sam Hauser.
In theory, we might have $40M cap space this year, with the roster looking like Tatum, Pritchard, Queta, Baylor, Hugo, Cenac, and 2028 Clippers pick. I'd be surprised if they went in that direction because it's not a max slot and most top players aren't getting to free agency anyway.