r/changemyview • u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ • 3d ago
Delta(s) from OP CMV: There is no credible evidence that the Yandex datacenter strikes had a substantial impact on Russian propaganda bots on US social media, but there is a bot-driven campaign to suggest there was.
Some definitions:
credible evidence: An actual statistical analysis based on hard data by a named individual with training and expertise in a relevant field. Could be a university professor, cybersecurity professional, etc. (Bonus points if it’s based on open source data with replicable analysis.)
substantial impact: a reduction by at least 25% of a relevant metric in the days following the airstrikes, without an alternative explanation.
propaganda bots: Bots that manipulate social media by posting, commenting, or voting on user content. (i.e.: NOT the CloudFlare data about web crawlers that’s been pushed as evidence.)
US social media: Reddit, Twitter, Facebook, etc.
Ryan McBeth, a YouTuber and intelligence analyst who has actually advocated that the US should kinetically strike bot farms, put out a video explaining the rumors and why he thinks there’s no good evidence for a reduction in propaganda bots.
BBC Verify concludes similarly:
While there is no evidence to conclude the strikes on Yandex's data centres have had an impact on Russia's influence operations, they have disrupted internet services for many.
This post is illustrative of the bot-driven campaign:
11k+ upvotes in 3 hours. The sub is 6 months old, yet regularly hits r/all. OP of the post is 2 month old account with 4.5 million karma, also a mod of the sub.
More are easy to find. These posts tend to be Twitter screenshots or similarly unsourced claims.
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u/evanthx 2∆ 3d ago edited 3d ago
I thought the same for a bit. Then someone said there was an eight hour gap on [r/conservative](r/conservative) and I thought “sure there was” … but then out of curiosity I went and checked and there really WAS. Sort the feed by new and go see for yourself - though you’ll probably have to scroll back a bit, it’s a really, really busy subreddit … except for about eight hours after that strike.
Edit: might be harder to see now, I looked on my phone and I see times by day once a day has passed. When I looked it hadn’t been a whole day and it still showed it by hours, so the eight hour gap was really easy to see.
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u/Tasur7 3d ago
Ive made a graph of r/conservative activity in the recent weeks. asurtaev.github.io/fluff/r-conservative/
If anything, the sub is more active than before the attacks.128
u/slumo 3d ago
But it does look like it goes down significantly during the attacks, right? I assume the bot nets would have realized this and moved to other datacenters, which could increase activity after as well.
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u/ThiccDiddler 3d ago
There was a 6 hour gap the night before the attack during the same time frame. Which was unsurprisingly enough, the time of the day that most Americans are asleep, an extra 2 hour gap isn't really an outlier. And the conservative subreddit is a very heavily moderated subreddit since they tend to get brigaded alot and are wary of reddit admins coming down on them with a subreddit ban. Mod approval is needed for just about any post so if the mods are asleep, or busy then nothing is really happening.
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u/Jibrish 3d ago
We dont get on to approve threads till 6 or 7am typically.
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u/Dry-Maintenance3763 2d ago
How does it feel to mod one of the biggest echo chambers on this platform?
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u/TheKattsMeow 2d ago
How does that $7 gallon of gas make you feel about your shitty morals now bub?
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u/mathers101 1d ago
Hi would you be down to unban me from r/conservative? I am a moderate dem who likes speaking to people I disagree with in a good faith way, and I think my ban wasn't very warranted
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u/Huge-Arachnid6202 1d ago
This cat helped turn r/conservative into an echo chamber of pro Russia disinformation. He should be silenced here like he silences thousands on that sub.
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u/Tasur7 3d ago
To me it looks like every other night before that. People go to sleep at night, you know.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Wow, thanks! This is the first time I've seen actual data! (Can't give a delta because this supports my view, sorry, maybe someone with a different view might?)
The increase in traffic starts on October 7 (likely due to the anniversary of the attack), but seems to stay at that elevated level throughout the period where we might expect a drop due to the Yandex strikes.
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u/punninglinguist 5∆ 3d ago
What is the exact time of the data center strike you're working from here? I tried to check this myself, but I couldn't find an exact time of the strike to count from.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
I had looked into this earlier. My understanding is that /r/Conservative posts have to be approved by mods before they show up. To check this, I just grabbed a random headline from Daily Caller and posted it there, and it doesn't show up in the feed.
So even if we want to say that r/Conservative is run by Russian operatives (I never use the sub, but it wouldn't shock me), I don't see this as being evidence of a drop in bot engagement. Even if the mods are Russians, they don't need Yandex to sign into the mod account.
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u/evanthx 2∆ 3d ago
I went looking for other eight hour gaps though, and couldn’t find any.
So yeah. It might just be a really weird coincidence that just when these servers went down, that subreddit went very, very quiet. And it only went quiet when those servers went down, no other time.
One huge heck of a coincidence if so.
But if you’re looking for credible evidence, this is exactly that. Is it enough evidence to form a pattern? To prove anything? No. It takes more than one data point.
But if you ignore every data point, then … well THAT is a data point in itself.
So I’ll say this is an observable data point. That makes it credible evidence.
I won’t claim that it’s enough to thoroughly prove the point. We can’t tell the cause of this one. But we also shouldn’t ignore what we see.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
It looks like the gap is between 22:52 EDT on October 10 to 6:34 EDT October 11 for anyone else checking. That this is nighttime sleeping hours in the US is consistent with the idea the absence indicates that non-Americans who normally post then weren't.
The strike in Vladimir was reported as "overnight in Russia on October 11", which would put in the evening of the 10th EDT. This is also consistent with the theory.
So I’ll say this is an observable data point. That makes it credible evidence.
I don't know that a single data point meets the standard for credible evidence that I laid out in the OP -- it assumes that the baseline r/conservative night posting is Russian bots, and the decline is responsible for the decline -- but after looking at the timing, it's more plausible than I'd initially given it credit for, so !delta.
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u/mrpeanutpants 3d ago edited 3d ago
Just adding. Russian data center strike/ outages according to chatgpt in time zone eastern daylight time EDT
Sasovo Oct. 7, 6:31PM
Kaluga Oct. 9, Exact time unknown
Vladimir Oct. 10, ~9:00pm
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Thanks, this is helpful. That increased accuracy continues to be consistent with there being some causal link between the strike and the posting gap.
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u/HailMadScience 3d ago
Just to put out there the mods (or at least some of them) on that sub were also offline during the big Moscow power outage some time ago, which got noticed as well...so its not even the first time this happened on that sub.
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u/Dhczack 2d ago
I'm in the "there was a qualitative difference in the Internet on Monday" camp, but I briefly looked into the r/ conservative gap and one of the nuances is that while there was a significant gap in contributions it was in large part due to a relatively small number of contributors. I think that was only looking at posts and not comments though.
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u/KeepItLevon 3d ago
I don't see the gap everyone is talking about when looking at the tracker posted further up in this thread. Can someone help out? It looks like to me there was at least some activity during the period in question. Am I mising something?
What is meant by "gap". No traffic at all?
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
go to r/conservative/new and scroll back a few days. If you find the posts from the times I listed, there were no new posts made on the sub between those times, about 7 hours. That time period (night in EDT) usually has less traffic, but having no posts overnight is still rare.
The tracker is showing comment traffic, not post traffic.
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u/Pale-Assumption6678 3d ago
I’m confused, they struck 3 data centers on 3 different nights. The first two were before the times given, October 8th and October 9th then this major one was hit on the 11th but two other yandex centers were hit days prior.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Yes, the third one happened a couple hours before the gap on r/conservative. I still don't think it's likely these two are related, but I gave the delta because it is more plausible than I had previously thought.
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u/girlywish 3d ago
Theres plenty of ways to estimate if its credible or not, just get a sample of activity from that timeframe for many different days and figure out if the odds if it being natural are significant or not.
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u/ArrrRawrXD 2∆ 3d ago
I looked into the subreddit and there was a thread about this same topic there, first of all the subreddit is sufficiently anti-Russian, second of all, here's some data from the mod showing that the traffic was normal
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Thank you! That's excellent to see some more real data. I replied to the mod to see if he has any insight on the 8 hour gap.
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u/shadofx 3d ago
Aren't you going with the working theory that the mods themselves are Russian operatives? Now you're taking data provided by them.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
I consider it a possibility I'm willing to entertain or assume for the sake of argument, but I don't have any solid reasons to believe it's the case.
So sure I'll take data from them, with the caveat that it could be fabricated. Like I said, open source data is preferable, and the data does seem to track with what the other user provided using ArcticShift data.
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u/nightshade78036 12∆ 3d ago
In order to stop left wing people from posting there you need to get your profile reviewed by mods to verify that you're sufficiently conservative, in which case you will be given a custom flair and can post there. That doesn't stop the subreddit from being overrun by conservative bots, it just adds an extra step for anyone trying to bot the subreddit.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Thanks for the info. I've literally never used the sub before!
Do you know whether flaired user posts go through automatically or require approval?
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u/nosecohn 2∆ 3d ago
I just looked at some recent posts by flaired users there. Sorting the comments by "old" reveals that the earliest ones were made shortly after the timestamp of the OP, indicating that the posts did not sit in the queue for long. I'm not sure what conclusions you can draw from this, but it's another data point to add to the mix.
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u/nightshade78036 12∆ 3d ago
I think they go through automatically but I'm not sure, everything I know about that subreddit is based on other people's analysis and what other people have said. A cursory glance at my profile will show you I'm not the type of person they would ever want posting there, and I'm not interested enough to go make an alt to get in myself.
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u/SwimmingSympathy5815 3d ago
I got banned from r/conservative for posting one of Reagan’s speeches warning about Russia fyi
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u/DarkSkyKnight 6∆ 3d ago
They have 8 hour gaps every day. Because the mods are asleep.
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u/thefaehost 1∆ 3d ago
The comment says they looked for other eight hour gaps and there weren’t any.
I’m a moderator on a different subreddit that is largely American based. One of our moderators is from another country and time zone so there’s still someone active when the rest of us are asleep.
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u/Super_Range45 3d ago
I like how this guy mentions lack of sources. Then BBC cites "dTeam", some people that don't even have a website.
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u/lordtosti 1∆ 3d ago
this whole thread reads like “conservatives don’t really exist. my worldview is the only correct one and if someone disagrees it must be because it is RUSSIA 👻 trying to create division “
did russians also vote in 2016 and 2024?
so bots can influence people voting but they would never be able to make people really believe into these ideas so they never would post anything organically?5
u/evanthx 2∆ 3d ago
There is a large Russian disinformation campaign, that’s pretty much undisputed I think. And they have had a lot of luck with MAGA. But they are there to sow discontent and disinformation. I don’t think they care about Republican or Democrat, just … causing problems.
It isn’t just America:
And you can google for yourself if you like.
X’s location feature was the most entertaining one, remember all the MAGA accounts that turned out to be based in Russia? 😁
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u/deaglebingo 1d ago
there's plenty more evidence out there too... stats and otherwise. i'm not providing links because it's that easy for OP to find that evidence themselves by searching for more than a minute or two on facebook. there's only one reason to be posting CMV stuff worded like this.
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u/Key_Sun2547 3d ago
Do we know that those 8 hours weren't essentially scrubbed by mods for whatever reason?
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u/Cute-Hand-1542 2d ago
I've seen this claim elsewhere and it turned out to be a case of that being the 8 hours when Americans are asleep and happens every night.
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u/Infinite-Abroad-436 2∆ 2d ago
would it happen to be the hours between 10 PM and 6 AM
i'm sure there's no other explanation
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u/Mojofilter9 3d ago
Everyone seems to be talking about r/conservative but Reform UK posts on Twitter got a fraction of the engagement that they usually get. The PM and head of MI6 have both confirmed that Russia interferes with stuff like this - not that it was ever really in doubt.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Has anyone produced or analyzed data on this? I'll give a delta if so.
I'm not denying that Russia (among others) are actively interfering in the politics of other countries through social media bots; it's pretty clear they do to some extent. For this post at least, I'm most interested in the claim that the Yandex strikes actually disrupted the bot networks in a meaningful way.
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u/Mojofilter9 3d ago
I doubt anyone has analysed the data beyond looking at the posts and seeing that Reform UK figures who usually get tens, or even hundreds of thousands of likes are all struggling to get into 4 figures - suddenly all at the same time.
Obvious thing is obvious...
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u/slow70 3d ago
It seems obvious to me too - was notable online in my own spaces - and there seems to be a very concerted effort to distract from this story and its implications.
Everyone should be familiar with Russian “active measures” which were used to sow division and support Trump.
It’s self serving international oligarchs against the rest of us. Data centers are engines for the manufacture of consent, propaganda and illusion of a scale difficult to imagine.
They are also the engines of domestic oppression which this administration intends fully to utilize against dissent here in the United States.
Just think of the implications of data centers being so key to a hot war right now. Those who would grind you into the mud would hate that…
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
It might be obvious for people who spend a lot of time watching Reform UK figures on Twitter, but for the rest of us, I think we'd need to see some data to make that claim.
I'm sure there are at least a few NGOs or watchdog groups in the UK with the inclination and resources to gather and analyze such data, and if it exists, I hope they do because it could be a powerful message showing that much of Reform's support is astroturfed.
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u/Mojofilter9 3d ago edited 3d ago
I mean, just look at the screenshots on this article. I don't really know what else anyone would need. It was already completely obvious that Russia is promoting Reform. Their former Welsh leader is currently in prison for being a Russian asset.
If you don't think Russia is doing stuff like this, why wouldn't they? Do you think it just hasn't occured to them that they can?
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
I don't really know what else anyone would need.
I did look through some of them, but the screenshots don't cover all the tweets in that period, they selectively choose tweets that fit the narrative they're trying to sell.
There's no statistical analysis here, nor even comparisons of averages from the relevant time period, but a handful of tweets chosen by some unknown process and then just eyeballing the numbers.
If you don't think Russia is doing stuff like this, why wouldn't they?
I think Russia is almost certainly using bots and other methods to influence politics in the UK and elsewhere. My view for the CMV is not challenging that, it's challenging the specific claims that the Yandex strikes had any impact.
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u/Inside_Departure_186 3d ago
Just wanted to say, I appreciate that you are pushing back on all the comments throughout this thread basically saying "isn't one handpicked screenshot enough proof?"
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u/Mojofilter9 3d ago
The statistical analysis is looking at the screenshots and seeing that the level of engagement is obviously a fraction of what it normally is. Beyond that you're just over thinking it.
If I order a 12" pizza and when it comes it's only 3", I don't need to get my tape measure out to prove it's smaller than normal.
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u/guto8797 3d ago
If you want to make actual fact based analysis, a few twitter screenshots don't cut it.
You need to calculate the average engagement across various periods, then compare that to the average engagement of the tweets made during that time window. You need a distribution analysis to see if these sorts of drops aren't just a common thing due to luck, timing, etc.
To be clear, I do believe there's a link here. But belief is worthless and should be backed by data.
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u/AllosaurusJr 2d ago
I don’t disagree with you. But mind you, thorough analysis is slow and doesn’t move quick - I’m certain we’ll see think tanks and research groups dig into this over the next few months.
In the mean time, it’s good to hold both views to a healthy skepticism. What we can do is look at the other parts of the system to inform our hypotheses until we can confirm them.
Yandex hosts critical infrastructure for bots to operate, which to me lends plausibility to the claim, and my internet haunts reflected that too.
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u/Larnek 3d ago
Evidence states that automated cloudfare data dropped, not any botnet activity. Actual data says that the sites hit had reduced internal infrastructure traffic with no evidence of social media botnet.
"Cybersecurity experts, BBC Verify, and research groups like Antibot4Navalny and Vatnik Soup explain that the drop represents Yandex's internal crawling and search engine/web infrastructure, not social media disinformation accounts."
Stop repeating shit without any evidence but a fucking internet meme. Actual evidence supports a botnet spreading this BS.
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u/thedeeno 1∆ 3d ago
Vibes are not data.
The data is straightforward to collect, and yet we don't see it yet, which makes me believe the data doesn't look as clear as the narrative suggests it is.
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u/slow70 3d ago
Russian intelligence also supports the AfD, and Orban’s party of crooks, and right wing oligarchs the world over.
Everyone needs to understand “active measures” or CDO or “the three warfares”
The information environment is considered a battle space and various powers are fighting over your attention and very perception of reality.
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u/thefonztm 1∆ 3d ago
If you won't trust someone telling you "X" why would you trust someone telling you "X" + a spreadsheet?
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Well, I'd like a little more than a spreadsheet, I'd like something that does at least a regression and preferably some better type of statistical analysis.
Even a spreadsheet could be helpful to see if it's visually plausible. Someone sharing a few screenshots of tweets and giving their qualitative explanation isn't that helpful.
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u/MySmileyPants 3d ago
The lack of critical thinking in this this reply is exactly why the bots are so effective.
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u/Sufficient_Theory388 3d ago
Agreed
"If you won't trust someone telling you X, why would you trust someone telling you X and showing youbthe evidence"
... Is there even a need to explain it?
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u/StrictlyOnerous 3d ago
That is data, its just not compiled by someone who's opinion you choose to believe
It's all out there available to you
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u/Pure_Purple_5220 3d ago
if its "all out there and available to you" then provide a link to the data!
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u/ZeroAmusement 3d ago
Where is the data? OP is wanting data and evidence. Relying on "it's obvious" isn't convincing at all.
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u/Introvertedecstasy 3d ago
Something to be mindful of…
From a technical standpoint. One data center going down is like killing a single flea on a dog. We can say it has an impact, but statistically to the degree of %25, unlikely. The dog has more than 4 fleas.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
I picked 25% as a ballpark figure of what people could actually discern. If the qualitative experience of so many people was supposedly that they noticed an obvious decline in what they think are bots, that should show up in the data somewhere and be fairly large. If you normally see 10 bots somewhere and only saw 9 the day after the strikes, I don't think many people would actually register that as a difference.
I agree that taking out one or three datacenters is unlikely to produce a 25% drop, which is why I'm skeptical of the claims that anyone actually noticed a difference. If the dog is covered in fleas and you pick off one or two, he's not going to notice.
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u/NextWeather7866 3d ago
I had a chat with Astra, because of this constant bickering. I definitely feel a difference in my x feed, so do other people. But stats come out tomorrow, so why don't we just wait for that.
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u/SirButcher 3d ago
Has anyone produced or analyzed data on this?
On the /rtheydidthemath one poster did:
However, the data is questionable, so take it with a (few) grains of salt.
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u/nightshade78036 12∆ 3d ago
Firstly I just want to say Ryan McBeth is not a credible source and has a tendency to make definitive claims on things he cannot back up and does not have expertise on, you should not take him as a serious commentator on these issues. The big example of this is during the Israeli pager attacks when he went on recond saying there is no way it was a planted explosive inside of the pagers and it had to be some other method of attack before we had credible information on how the attack took place. He turned out to be completely wrong, and when confronted about it by his comunity he kept doubling down and refused to admit he was overconfident or that his analysis was incorrect.
Also I just want to point out that you're claiming the discourse on the effect of the datacenter strikes is driven by bots, but you have not supplied proper evidence for this. If you think this is the case you should hold this claim to the same standard of evidence that you're asking for the idea that the datacenter strikes disrupted Russian bots.
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u/Apprehensive_Lake698 3d ago
I mean it all needs evidence, and nobody seems to have any. I'm 100% sure that the majority of people saying "the bots are conquered!" are judging entirely based on vibes, when most people spend 99% of their time inside of echo chambers anyway. Both sides do. I hardly think most people are out there measuring real engagement metrics and determining a drop. I've not seen any, but I've seen plenty of people vibing out that it's happened.
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u/Outside-Sun3454 3d ago
Yeah I’m baffled we need evidence to prove this thing isn’t happening when we have just as little info proving that it actually happened. Like I don’t trust a redditors vibes to be “evidence”
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 2d ago
Yours was the first comment to point out that my standards were different in analyzing the two claims I made in my OP. I did have a reason for that, but I either poorly articulated it or should have made two separate posts, so I think you deserve a !delta for that.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Firstly I just want to say Ryan McBeth is not a credible source and has a tendency to make definitive claims on things he cannot back up and does not have expertise on
I mostly agree with you here. I disagree with Ryan on a lot and use him mostly as a check against my own priors and assumptions.
I used him here as an example of someone in that space who would want the claim to be true, and who I would expect to present a case for it being true if he could make one. I'm not appealing to his expertise in presenting a positive case, but to his bias.
but you have not supplied proper evidence for this.
This is true; the two parts of my claim are not symmetric.
you should hold this claim to the same standard of evidence
In terms of how I model it in my own head, I do. I have moderate confidence that this claim is being pushed by bots, but I acknowledge I have no credible evidence for it as I've defined that. It's my opinion based on my experience on this site.
For the purposes of this CMV, I presented it as such because I do want to know if there is credible evidence for the first claim. For the second part, I will accept lower quality evidence to change that part, and I think it's fairly likely I will give a delta or two on that part.
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u/Kernel_Internal 3d ago
What could possibly be the point of saying this, other than to demonstrate you're kind of a bad person? The guy is trying to engage with everyone and not come across as defensive when people point out flaws in his post/thought process/etc. There's no valid justification for being critical and insulting to him.
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u/Ryanmcbeth 1d ago
If I'm not a crediable source then please explain this article in the US Army's Special Warfare Journal: https://www.lineofdeparture.army.mil/Journals/Special-Warfare/Special-Warfare-Archive/2026-E-Edition/Outside-the-Wire/
You are welcome to lie about me if you want, but I call out liars, grifters and bots for a living, so good luck with that.
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u/that-mattg-life 3d ago
Twitter had a serious drop in engagement too. I think expanding the data to include all social media would be necessary to get a complete picture
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Is this quantifiable in any way? I did include Twitter in my OP and would definitely accept a statistical analysis for them, too.
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u/Ok-Persimmon4959 3d ago edited 3d ago
No but there is quantifiable evidence against this., on the cloudflare page there is a content type distribution which tracks what the MIME type of the requests is, if you look at the yandex network that was struck it is majority what you would expect from a web crawler, html, javascript and plaintext, very small amounts of json ( you would primarily see in a botfarm doing alot of api requests), and infact, when the datacenter strike happened, json requests went up a large fraction, which is sort of the inverse of what you would expect if a bunch of social media bots went offline. Also even if the bots were going from page to page on twitter it would not re-request html or javascript just due to caching, this content type distribution REALLY just looks like its crawling web pages for search engine indexing.
That being said, x is the only major social media that uses cloudflare, most others roll their own cdn network, so the data could be better.
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u/Timzor 3d ago
Not bots, just virality. There is a lot of power in an idea people desperately want to believe is true because it sounds like it is.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Not bots, just virality.
How can you tell the difference?
It was demonstrated years ago that you can get a post to the front page by paying for upvote bots. The way reddit's algos work, a small number of upvotes (~a few hundred) early enough in the life of a post put it in front of more eyeballs, thus getting more upvotes and going to the front page.
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u/Timzor 3d ago
Ok well first we know it’s possible for a story to go viral completely organically. That’s absolutely possible.
Second this story itself is sensational enough to get clicks on the headline alone. It strongly confirms peoples beliefs and biases and cathartic to boot. It’s no suprise to me that this story went nuts despite dubious evidence to support it. Why would anyone need to spend a dime on it?
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Why would anyone need to spend a dime on it?
From my BBC link:
Viral social media posts have claimed there has been a significant drop in influence operations in recent days, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggesting on Monday there was "less hate, less division and fewer provocations" online because of "fewer bots".
Assuming at least some of the response is organic, it's created goodwill for Ukraine and their cause among people in the US and the broader West. This is some of the best PR they've had in months, at a time when they desperately need it given Trump's recent action regarding Russian diesel and calling for Zelensky to be replaced.
I don't have evidence that Ukraine or its supporters are backing this as a campaign, but it likely makes strategic sense for them to do so. They'd spend a dime on it if they determine the marginal benefit of increased vitality is greater than the marginal cost, which is actually pretty cheap.
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u/ineyy 1∆ 3d ago
People are excited. My friends who I know are not bots are rejoicing, sadly I had to correct them. But it's a viral thing that people don't fact check and they just want it to be true.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
I'll give a !delta on that. This is the first I've heard that real people actually believe that this is a real phenomenon. I guess maybe I was hoping it was just bots.
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u/DeltaBot ∞∆ 3d ago
Confirmed: 1 delta awarded to /u/ineyy (1∆).
[Delta System Explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltasystem) | [Deltaboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltaboards)
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u/Timzor 3d ago
How do we get a delta on this?
Sure its theoretically possible that a pro Ukraine interest backed a bot net to promote this story.
But
A: No proof. Your cited 2 month old redditor is just a Karma farmer. Struck it lucky with this post. Will probably get sold to a botnet in future but theres no reason to believe THIS post was posted by a botnet.
B. No reason to need a botnet to boost it. Its already a sensational story with mass appeal, it anyone is paying to boost it, its the websites that wrote it or copied it for clicks.
What exactly are you expecting us to convince differently? What were you hoping to get in response?
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u/DigiSmackd 3d ago
It strongly confirms peoples beliefs and biases and cathartic to boot
This is it. People WANT it to be true. So it's a lot easier to cheer for and promote.
I too would like that - but I'm still looking for evidence. I haven't seen anything in this thread, aside from one Delta that suggests a gap in posts from a single subreddit. And that's not something I've confirmed myself.
I can't help but feel like with as many places/people that cover this sort of topic and with as much scrutiny of bots/bot accounts (especially those potentially engaged in political affairs), if there was glaring evidence of this suggested outcome, it'd be all over the place too. Maybe it's still coming? Or maybe it simply doesn't exist.
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u/CobraPuts 7∆ 3d ago
Take a look at r/conservative and the posting there has completely transformed. Usually everything is comically pro-Trump and now there is a preponderance of critical commentary.
It’s also possible there’s an intentional effort to make people aware this happened, but that doesn’t necessarily need to be bot driven or that Russian bot farms going down was untrue.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Another commenter made a plausible case for the 8 hour gap on r/conservative and I gave them a delta, but your claim is that the r/conservative is still being affected?
Is there any way to quantify this or would I have to read through weeks of posts on the sub and just make a subjective call that it's "completely transformed"?
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u/ArrrRawrXD 2∆ 3d ago
I go on that subreddit from time to time to check claims like that guy's and it's just not the case, that subreddit is usually pretty critical of Trump's dumbest actions, there's no comical support of him, at worst they'll ignore the dumbassery, not support it
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u/polovstiandances 3d ago
You could technically run a sentiment analysis on posts but that’s a lot of manual labor.
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u/slumo 3d ago
I like to check that subreddit out and it's weird because a lot of the initial posts often seem very pro-trump but comments are often hating on him. It seemed to me that there were a lot of conservatives (not MAGA people) on there. But maybe I just checked on topics that aren't heavily botted.
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u/hitsmygive 3d ago
I’ve been on r/conservative for some time and thats not a new thing. They’ve been pretty anti-trump for a while now.
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u/Hot_Ambition_6457 1∆ 3d ago
https://radar.cloudflare.com/bots/as13238?dateRange=7d
Cloudflare themselves showed a significant decrease in automated users across all social media immediately following tge attacks for ~9 hours.
Like total volume of requests dropped to less than 30% of historical averages.
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u/Ok-Persimmon4959 3d ago
decrease in automated users across all social media " thats not what this data says, and the fact they struck yandex and there was a drop in http requests across the web is exactly what you would expect. they're a search engine, they have to index sites, so yes they are "bots" but likely just web crawlers and such
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
that claim is far more credible than the idea that the people pushing the claim are bots.
What evidence do you have for this assertion?
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
You made a claim that one is far more credible than the other. I was just asking if you had evidence for that claim or if I needed evidence of my own to dismiss it.
I'd already replied to another comment before you made yours explaining why I have different standards for the two parts of my post.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
You believe one side because you've modelled it in your head and it seems likely to you. But for the alternative, you're requiring much more proof.
Like I said in the comment you're referencing, the views are not symmetric, and they're not even mutually exclusive. These aren't two "sides". There could be an actual decline in Russian bots and other bots could be pushing that (true in this case) narrative, or there could be no decline and no narrative push.
I'm asking different levels of evidence because of the nature of this sub. My post does not represent the totality of my views on the subject, but the parts I'm putting up to be challenged. I do not have nor did I did I claim to have credible evidence that this topic has been bot-driven.
Not even going to bother with the rest of the comment as it's based on the same erroneous assumptions.
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u/Handgun_Hero 1∆ 3d ago
It happened but it's not particularly that big in the USA - American Conservatives just genuinely are that stupid and far right enough to have the views they do without Russia needing to give them a push. However, the data in engagement figures in Europe for Reform UK and AfD was unmistakable.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
However, the data in engagement figures in Europe for Reform UK and AfD was unmistakable.
Is this quantified somewhere?
Someone else shared an article with some screenshots of these Reform figures. The ones they showed did have less engagement than the ones they chose from before the strikes, but checking a few of the accounts on X, they selectively chose which posts to highlight.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 3d ago
Remind me, are maga the people who believe things without evidence just because it confirms their biases?
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u/Southern-Hope-4913 1∆ 1d ago
Im curious if you are making any additional implied claims. Do you think mass Russian bot activity exist? Are you arguing its hardware is distributed instead of located in data centers? Are you arguing it’s just not in this particular data center? Russia doesn’t release accurate data on its bot activity. That activity has been challenging to prove in the past and certainly near impossible to track all or even most of it. The estimated hardware needed for rusbots is significantly less than what located at yandex. Yandex could still have been temporarily at the heart of bot activity. It likely wasn’t 100% critical to bot activity but many governments including Russia have adopted ai usage. It’s very conceivable that ai would be used to run bot accounts. It’s an assumption but not an unreasonable one that the company operating the yandex facility would have links somewhere to Russian bot activity. Your bar of credible evidence is really high for espionage activities as speculation is usual the best you get. I agree with the narrow portion of your argument about activity levels dropping being blown out of proportion. I’d argue there is good speculative evidence that attacking Russian ai infrastructure is a solid blow to their bot efficacy if not volume.
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 1d ago
Do you think mass Russian bot activity exist?
Yes, but likely overblown. Between other state and non-state actors, I've seen little to suggest that Russia in particular is driving US SM discourse.
Are you arguing its hardware is distributed instead of located in data centers? Are you arguing it’s just not in this particular data center?
Yes and yes. Social media bots are cheap compute-wise; you could run a thousand bots off a cheap laptop. The difficultly is fooling the platforms, and centralizing in a major datacenter doesn't help with that.
Russia doesn’t release accurate data on its bot activity.
No operators of propaganda bots do.
Yandex could still have been temporarily at the heart of bot activity.
Sure, it certainly could have, but I've seen very little to suggest it was.
Your bar of credible evidence is really high for espionage activities as speculation is usual the best you get.
I put my bar where I did because if as many people are claiming they can perceive a qualitative difference in their social media are correct, there should be some quantitative signal somewhere. I would have accepted impacts of less than 25%, but I basically got no data or statistical analysis in this thread. The best was a 8hr gap on r/conservative, which I did give a delta to.
I’d argue there is good speculative evidence
I don't know what speculative evidence is. I'd agree that there's a plausible enough case for disruption that it's worth looking into, and I hope cybersecurity researchers do just that. Unless and until that happens, I continue to think that the people making or assuming that claim that such disruption did happen is almost entirely unfounded.
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u/tylorban 1d ago
Cloudflare has confirmed the strike had no impact on bot or malicious social media at all:
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 1d ago
Thanks, that does seem to dispel the notion that there was any substantial disruption to social media bots.
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u/TheOriginalDog 15h ago
Not sure what that means from the report:
Bot traffic" refers to automated requests to websites on Cloudflare's network, such as crawlers and scripts, not necessarily activity on social media platforms
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u/Usernamenotta 3d ago
I wonder whose bots are doing the 'effective propaganda'. I haven't checked reddit a lot this week, or any SM, but what I have seen on all western platforms is celebrations for the attack. like unnaturally so. And brigading reports and down votes against anyone who dares not to celebrate
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 2d ago
Yeah, hard to say. I imagine reddit or twitter could probably figure it out, but also have an incentive not to disclose how many bots are actually on the platform, and likely don't want to face the pushback of admitting US/Ukrainian/EU bots in addition Russian and Chinese.
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u/FlyHamster 2d ago
Reddit is notoriously left leaning, any news about Russia taking Ls in the war with Ukraine portrayed as good and are shared
I think people just want to believe something good has happened and propaganda bots being offline is objectively a good thing, this being tied to 1) Russia taking an L (without civilian casualties) 2) Ukraine presumably doing good in a war 3) American right suffering from it because of course they all were Russian bots
All of this makes this news "super wholesome" and viral
At least that's how I see it
In reality no, literally nothing like that happened, well datacenters got hit pretty bad that much is true, my Yandex banking app was broken for 50 hours, company will take billions of dollars worth of damage, because computer hardware is very expensive right now, even more so in Russia, they can't officially work with anyone because of sanctions, probably will be bouth through Kazakhstan
Every news article linked cloudflare radar as a proof without ounce of understanding what it even tracks
We do have propaganda bots, don't get me wrong, probably less that America or Israel, kinda behind compute wise, but we also have more than three datacenters and Yandex needs this compute for thousands of it's micro services
I just find it funny that some people belive that American right wing needs Russian bots, while it has 50 times more compute than Russia and every tech and surveillance CEO under their heel
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u/PreviousCurrentThing 5∆ 2d ago
Thanks for the insight, this tracks with much of my thinking on the matter. There's definitely an entrained response on reddit and elsewhere to any real or perceived Russian L, Ukraine W, or GOP L, to the point where people share any rumor regardless of whether it's true.
Which is sad because it used to be mostly people on the right who were like that here. Liberals and leftish people weren't perfect, yet they tended to care about getting the facts correct. Now so much of the discourse is purely partisan, people don't bother fact checking anything and try to shame anyone who does.
we also have more than three datacenters and Yandex needs this compute for thousands of it's micro services
Yeah, I didn't get into it in my OP, but the theory never made sense from a practical level. Large datacenters like the ones that were destroyed are great if you have very large software ecosystems that benefit from being in the same place in terms of latency and bandwidth. Social media bots are pretty much the opposite. They're superlight on compute and don't need bandwidth, low latency, or interconnectivity, but do need to look like they're not all coming from the same place.
I just find it funny that some people belive that American right wing needs Russian bots,
Hillary Clinton used "Russian bots" as her main excuse for losing in 2016, and ever since, it's just been the go-to excuse to dismiss anything that Democrats don't want to believe.
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u/Brainsonastick 85∆ 3d ago
While I totally agree with you that that the idea is unfounded, I’d push back on the idea that it’s necessarily bot-driven.
I think the idea just started and people placebo-affected themselves into believing it. It’s not exactly a rare phenomena on the internet.
I’m not saying it’s impossible bots are behind it… but there’s no actual evidence they are either.
It’s doubtful Russia expected the attack, or it would likely have failed, so it’s unlikely they planned ahead for this.
I see your point about some posts going viral but sometimes ideas genuinely do just go viral. We’d need some evidence this hasn’t gone viral naturally and I’m not seeing that.
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u/Hummusforeveryone 3d ago
This twitter account that monitors Russian bot behavior also concluded there's little evidence the data center strike slowed down activity
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u/U_Dun_Know_Who_I_Am 1∆ 3d ago
Looks like that is tracking HUMAN made propaganda, the allegation is the auto reply and auto post stuff.
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u/MrDerpGently 1d ago
And even just infrastructure to support human driven bot operations. I have a difficult time believing that Russia wouldn't use it's entirely subservient domestic cyber infrastructure, which is integrated with FSB owned SORM, to supply compute, cover, routing, translation and a ton of other services to its well known and active information warfare efforts.
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u/kristamine14 2d ago
"Targeting Russian Domestic Users" - does this mean they are only measuring internal Russian data? As in it's affect on people in Russia, not the wider world?
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u/Significant-Way9330 3d ago
No credible evidence that Yandex was ever even a bot server. Seems like it's a pretty normal server for search engine stuff? Not super familiar with Russian data farms. Either way it does look like there is some evidence that Russian aligned accounts actually increased engagement on social media after the strikes lmao.
Also no evidence the opposite bot narrative is the case either. Seems more like people excited for the possiblity that Russian bots were taken offline when they weren't.
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u/conspicuousxcapybara 3d ago
The www entire internet as a whole is majority bot-traffic. There is a consensus on this across every source.
IMHO it’s highly unlikely for the Yandex datacenter to be the exception. Both in Russia specifically, but also in most other countries.
n.b. US internet traffic is by far bottier then that of every other country though
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u/read-the-rules 3d ago
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u/kittenTakeover 2∆ 3d ago
If you're looking for someone who has compiled a report I honestly think you're asking too early. The Russian interference in the 2016 election to help get Donald elected was extremely obvious and the most extensive astroturfing campaign I've ever seen in my life. We didn't get much info on it for a long time after the election.
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u/_PhiloPolis_ 3d ago edited 3d ago
OK I'll try:
There is no credible evidence that the Yandex datacenter strikes had a substantial impact on Russian propaganda bots on US social media, but there is a bot-driven campaign to suggest there was.
OK, I bolded the two different claims here.
On the first, 'credible' is somewhat in the eye of the beholder. I looked up 'credible' at dictionary.com:
adjective
- capable of being believed; believable. a credible statement. Synonyms: tenable, reasonable, likely, plausible
- worthy of belief or confidence; trustworthy. a credible witness.
You'll notice a distinct concept gap between those two definitions. It brings to mind a quote:
The juggle of sophistry consists, for the most part, in using a word in one sense in all the premises and in another sense in the conclusion.
- Samuel Taylor Coleridge
And I think, however unintentionally, this is happening here. What we have presented in the comments so far is two types of evidence:
- Anecdotal evidence: individual cases where engagement seems to be lower than what we might expect
- Argument from authority: experts at data companies saying they think this happened
I think there's a good point to be made in the OP about rush to judgement and what constitutes strong evidence, but I think the evidence presented clears the (relatively low, to be fair) hurdle presented by the first sense of the word. That type of 'credible' simply means there's some evidence that is believable because it isn't directly contradicted by anything stronger. It is not a synonym for 'firm proof' at all. (Reminds me of a bugaboo of mine that isn't present here, but that I see a lot, the phrase "no proof," a phrase I regard as unfit for good debate, because it implies "no evidence" without having the courage to say it. It prompts the responder to present evidence, which the initial arguer will then pick at in an attempt to show it does not amount to firm proof. Problem being that that definition of proof is not measured in amounts, a thing by that definition is proven or isn't. If you look up the definition of 'proof' you will unfortunately find multiple definitions and a similar Coleridgian sophistry problem.)
The second definition strikes me as highly subjective. It depends on what types of authority the specific reader is inclined to trust. But if we don't distinguish clearly between these two definitions, we begin to get into questions of whether lack of evidence is evidence of lack. (Because, should we distrust sources without any palpable reason to distrust them?) My personal opinion is that it can be, but only if a relatively exhaustive search has been performed where one might have reasonably expected to find evidence and did not. A simple search of r/Conservative doesn't fit that bill, partially for reasons already mentioned in this thread (it's fairly strictly moderated and might be expected to filter out bot activity better than other online media). What I'm saying is that didn't happen here, and therefore neither definition of 'no credible evidence' is met.
So I regard the charge is not proven, but nonetheless it is credible. I just think that 'credible' means something more like 'worthy of further examination,' the kind that seems to to have taken place yet.
--
The second claim here I regard as a layup, because your evidence for it is exactly the type of anecdotal evidence you're rejecting for the first claim.
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u/ImRickJamesMother 2d ago
You are asking for data, when this just happened days ago. We don't have data of real time daily Reddit access. There is monthly data from sources like Semrush. So we will need to wait to see if there is noticeable dip in Oct traffic after October.
Your source for there being a bot campaign to promote the idea is not evidence of anything.
Why are you so eager to suggest an opposing "propaganda bot" when a reasonable, unbiased person would think there is not evidence yet as this is days old?
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u/financebells 2d ago
I also constantly get a stream of Asmongold slop on tik tok. Always with a bunch of comments all agreeing with him and a bunch of likes. For about a day I realised there was absolutely no activity on any of these clips. No comments no nothing. Then I heard the news about the attack on the bot farm and suddenly it all made sense. I actually think there’s an effort by nefarious actors to try and shift the news to it being fake or over blown.
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u/BigKale3463 2d ago
Это бесконечные копиумные гонки. Позавчера это были крах экономики из за дефицита бензина, вчера эпидемия чумы, сегодня ботофермы, завтра ещё что то. И так уже 5 лет. Всей этой публике нужны регулярные инъекции копиума, а то что было вчера никто уже не помнит. А самое смешное что все эти "победы за углом" разгоняют про-украинские ботофермы.
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u/FarYear7107 22h ago
Not sure about the other countries. I am glad to see less Alberta separatist and Lake Ontario/Lake America posting here in Canada. Ill enjoy this temporary quiet time while the AI bots find a new data centre home. Hopefully Ukraine add it on their list
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Refrain from accusing or suggesting that others may be arguing in bad faith, lying, or unwilling to change their view. Assume good faith and ask clarifying questions (see: Socratic method). If you believe OP may be engaging in bad faith, report their post for violating Rule B instead. Keep in mind that reports take time to review. See the wiki page for more information.
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2d ago
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u/changemyview-ModTeam 1d ago
Your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 3:
Refrain from accusing or suggesting that others may be arguing in bad faith, lying, or unwilling to change their view. Assume good faith and ask clarifying questions (see: Socratic method). If you believe OP may be engaging in bad faith, report their post for violating Rule B instead. Keep in mind that reports take time to review. See the wiki page for more information.
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process here, then message the moderators by clicking this link within one week of this notice being posted. Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.
Please note that multiple violations will lead to a ban, as explained in our moderation standards.
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3d ago
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u/read-the-rules 3d ago
u/Kind_Law2195, your comment has been removed.
In order to comment on r/changemyview, you must read the rules. Use the link below, or if that interface doesn't work, you may read the rules here, then click this, and click send. Your most recent comment will be restored after you do this, and you will only need to do it once.
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3d ago
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u/changemyview-ModTeam 1d ago
Sorry, u/Dudeman61 – your comment has been removed for breaking Rule 5:
Comments must contribute meaningfully to the conversation.
Comments should be on-topic, serious, and contain enough content to move the discussion forward. Jokes, contradictions without explanation, links without context, off-topic comments, undisclosed or purely AI-generated content, and "written upvotes" will be removed. Read the wiki for more information.
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process here, then message the moderators by clicking this link within one week of this notice being posted.
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u/superkoolj 2d ago
Either way it’s disturbing… Data center powering bots or other bots propogating data center powering bots
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u/POLR_Bruh 2d ago
So it was just a ruse to help Elon musty justify pulling starlink access from Ukraine?
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3d ago
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u/read-the-rules 3d ago
u/Significant-Trip864, your comment has been removed.
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12h ago
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u/read-the-rules 12h ago
u/Elegantly_Succesful, your comment has been removed.
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3d ago
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u/changemyview-ModTeam 1d ago
Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1:
Direct responses to a CMV post must challenge at least one aspect of OP’s stated view, or ask a clarifying question. Arguments in favor of the view OP is willing to change must be restricted to replies to other comments. See the wiki page for more information.
If you would like to appeal, review our appeals process here, then message the moderators by clicking this link within one week of this notice being posted. Appeals that do not follow this process will not be heard.
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u/DeltaBot ∞∆ 3d ago edited 2d ago
/u/PreviousCurrentThing (OP) has awarded 3 delta(s) in this post.
All comments that earned deltas (from OP or other users) are listed here, in /r/DeltaLog.
Please note that a change of view doesn't necessarily mean a reversal, or that the conversation has ended.
[Delta System Explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltasystem) | [Deltaboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltaboards)