Is third grade reading ability indicative of future success?

[u/gwmiles]

Former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos pens this interesting op-ed in The Detroit News about what happened in Michigan. Do most educators believe the benefits of holding kids back from advancing outweigh the drawbacks, such as social stigma, mental health, disappointment, etc.?

Submission statement: This is a critical question facing Michigan and perhaps other states, worthy of discussion here.

[u/Landslime]

Not knowing how to read in high school should definitely carry more social stigma than being held back a year to make sure that the student learns

[u/OkCluejay172]

Probably more accurate to say not being able to read in third grade is highly indicative of lack of future success

[u/Aware_Twist7124 → u/OkCluejay172]

I remember movies and books about helping people who were poor readers as adults. You can learn to read at any time in your life. It's just confidence destroying if you fall behind your peers.

[u/CriticalTutor6005 → u/Aware_Twist7124]

It’s also when school switches from learning to read to reading to learn so you stop getting any direct instruction with learning to read.

[u/snackwaver]

Third grade is where you begin applying your reading skills to acquiring new information. If you struggled building a solid reading g foundation, it will be difficult to gain access to the new information that will be presented to you.

[u/Enchanted_Culture]

According to Dr. Jeffrey Lyon’s from NIH, a 90’s report Chicago used to predict prison beds by how many non reading third graders there are in a given year.

[u/pickleknits]

How does holding kids back achieve the goal of increasing literacy? Is it the chance to repeat the material? Is it natural maturity? Are these students offered a different curriculum to support their areas of deficit?

Her op-ed doesn’t explain how retaining kids in third grade solves the problem.

Because it doesn’t solve the problem without being paired with other interventions:
“These include free, full-day pre-K programs that promote reading readiness; universal screening for literacy three times a year for students in kindergarten through 3rd grade; individual reading plans (IRPs) for students whose screening results are below grade level; and formal methods for parents to engage in those IRPs. Underscoring these strategies is a significant investment of $15 million per year to support literacy, 60 percent of which goes to coaching and intervention services staff.” [https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/mississippi-students-surged-in-reading-over-the-last-decade-heres-how-schools-got-them-there/2023/06\]

De Vos’s op-ed conveniently ignores this aspect of the initiative that has created the results in Mississippi that she claims to want to recreate in Michigan.

Also note that “Wynn said that, prior to 2013, reading instruction throughout the state’s elementary schools was very balanced literacy-heavy, an approach that places a strong emphasis on understanding meaning, and less on the systematic and explicit use of phonics.” [taken from the same edweek.org article noted above.]

[u/Wonderful-Teach8210]

Third grade is a transition year, which is important for sure, and I do think kids need to be held back or given intensive intervention. But I would not use ability during that year to predict future success because with additional instruction kids can easily catch up. There is a reason national testing is during second semester of 4th grade.

[u/Longjumping_Code_649 → u/Wonderful-Teach8210]

With additional instruction. Are Michigan schools providing that additional instruction?

[u/Aware_Twist7124 → u/Wonderful-Teach8210]

I don't remember 3rd grade being high stakes as a kid. I do remember it being fun. My teacher had us make puppets innour third graders class and put on a puppet show each year for the parents. Her husband had made a little puppet show theater. Now kids have high stakes testing to replace creative activities like that. The eighties were better for a reason and NO ONE had to put so much time into the mechanics of reading...

We need to get rid of testing and comparing students to such extremes and bring back "learning is fun.." and teacher autonomy and creativity in their own classrooms!

[u/Wonderful-Teach8210 → u/Aware_Twist7124]

I don't remember it being presented as high stakes then either. But we were definitely told this was the year we were going to actually start learning stuff and being held responsible with grades and having to write book reports and stuff. That turned out to not be true for us because the teacher was busy that year having an affair with the gym teacher so we did lots of arts and crafts in class and not much work.

[u/h2f]

DeVos is using this as yet another attempt to gut public school funding. Want to get kids to read? Start with rigorous Head Start standards like the ones that the GOP is trying to gut. Then fund preschools instead of cutting them as the GOP wants. You might also try not throwing parents off of SNAP and WIC. All the GOP wants to do is siphon well off students and funding to poorly regulated private schools.

She uses this article to call for Michigan opting into the Education Freedom Tax Credit without explaining that it is essentially a way for well off parents to pay for private schools tax free and will further exacerbate educational inequity.

[u/lAngenoire]

My mother, an elementary school teacher with 40 years experience, told me that if students didn’t have the foundational skills by the end of 4th grade they likely never would. They’ll need remedial and supplemental instruction alongside their normal classes. If they aren’t highly motivated to put in the time and effort success isn’t likely. Holding them back won’t help unless something changes. 

[u/ActiveMachine4380]

1. Why are you listening to anything DeVos has to say about education?

2. Follow the money.

3. There is a significant shift from the 1980’s to the 2020’s. In the 80’s it was much easier to skip forward a grade ( precursor to gift and talented ) or be held back a grade. Fast forward to the 2020’s, and students skipping grades are a fraction of what they were in the 80’s. Same for the held back students. Does it happen, sure. But the damage that can be done to the student is taken far more seriously now.
   Then look at all the programs developed for student support if the student is behind in a major skill.

[u/Grouchy-Display-457]

When my mother attended school in the 20s and 30s, it was common to hold students back a semester or advance them a semester based on performance. This gave students who had a bad semester time to behind but catch up again. Social promotion is terrible. It was done to prevent exposing young female students from older males who were left back. But students unprepared in one year flounder worse in future years.

[u/mpledger → u/Grouchy-Display-457]

I don't know if that last sentence is true. Kids being cognitively challenged by same age peers can improve faster than kids left to languish with kids who are emotionally, intellectually, physically and socially less mature. All it does is increase the chances that those kids won't graduate.

[u/Grouchy-Display-457 → u/mpledger]

If you live in an Asian society based on cooperation, more successful students will automatically bring the weaker students along. If you live in an American society based upon competition, the weaker student will be bullied and humiliated. Look what it did to Trump.

[u/Dizzy_Okra_9595]

To some extent and in most cases, yes. However, I am sure exceptions exist for kids who picked up later in life. But remember these are just exceptions.

[u/Plus_Skin7338]

it’s a useful early warning sign, not a verdict, and how many kids are getting serious reading support before anyone talks about holding them back?

[u/DrummerBusiness3434]

What is the yardstick for success? For most people these days it has to do with enrollment into a college which they thing will open doors of employment.

[u/Elevenyearstoomany]

There were two kids in my grade who were held back in kindergarten. No one cared. But they were able to be successful students after an extra year. They are now successful adults.

[u/dreamclass_app]

Τhird grade reading level is, generally, a strong predictor of later outcomes. So, for example, kids who are behind at that point are statistically more likely to struggle through middle and high school. That part isn't really in dispute. But, where it gets messy is whether retention is the right response to that signal. 

Now, the research on holding kids back is mixed at best. From what I’ve seen, some studies show short-term bumps in test scores the year after retention, but a lot of that fade out within a couple years. Then, the social and emotional costs (like stigma, being the oldest/biggest kid in class, disengagement), these are well documented and don't seem to fade nearly as fast. Michigan's own data on their Read by Grade Three law is a decent real-world case study, I think. So, worth digging into if you want specifics beyond the op-ed.

My two cents is that retention without serious, sustained intervention (like tutoring, smaller groups, addressing whatever caused the gap in the first place) is mostly just delaying the same problem by a year. That’s the way I understand it, at least. Now, I might be wrong. But, if that’s a good assumption, the question isn't really if we should retain or not. More appropriately, I think we should ask what we’re doing in the two years before third grade to make sure fewer kids get to that fork in the road at all.