r/fcs • u/passwordisguest /r/FCS • Gulf Star • 3d ago
Weekly Thread FCS Hot Takes Thread
Let's hear your hot take FCS opinions. The ones you know in your heart of hearts are right, but for some reason aren't embraced by the FCS community (or particular fanbases) en masse!
Could be controversial (the Ivy League very well might be the best FCS conference on the East Coast), unpopular but you know is true (Sam Houston was at least as good a team as JMU from 2011 through the "2020" season), or even somewhat popular but still liable to rankle some folks (the Walter Payton award should go to the "best" offensive player, not just the offensive player with the best stat line because they played a weak schedule).
Sorted by controversial for maximum spiciness
Rules
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u/OtherwiseWord3467 3d ago
Youngstown State has beaten USD and SiIU convincingly the past two weeks. Some respect for them is due.
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u/OtherwiseWord3467 3d ago
Plus Brungard is playing like a repeat Walter Payton award winner this year. Just saying
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u/tdpdcpa Lehigh Mountain Hawks • Patriot 3d ago
The Ivy League is better than the Big Sky.
The reputation of the Big Sky is carried by the teams at the top rather than the teams in the middle, which makes it seem like a better conference than it is.
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u/Friendly_Loss1961 Montana Grizzlies 3d ago
This is the hot takes thread not the dumbest takes you've ever seen thread.
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u/Particular_Prior5344 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 3d ago
The Big Sky is overrated but it’s still by far the 2nd best conference.
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u/coincidental_boner Montana State Bobcats 3d ago
How are you defining the middle? The fifth best team in the Big Sky (Davis or Idaho State) is definitely better than Dartmouth
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u/Headwallrepeat South Dakota State • Miss… 3d ago
I don't know man, definitely a hot take. My opinion is if the Ivy League teams each played the top 8 Big Sky teams once the Big Sky wins 2/3 or maybe 3/4 of the matchups. The MVFC and the Big Sky have had some great competitive matchups so the Ivy is right there with the MVFC?
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u/tdpdcpa Lehigh Mountain Hawks • Patriot 3d ago
On the other hand...
The Big Sky is 1-3 against the MVFC this season.
The Big Sky is 9-4 against all other FCS conferences, compared to 14-6 for the Ivy League.
Digging in there, part of the 9-4 includes being 5-2 against the Pioneer Football League, where the Ivy League is 1-0. This means that if we exclude the top and bottom conferences, the Big Sky is 4-2, while the Ivy League is 13-6.
This actually overrates the Big Sky because Utah Tech, the conference's worst team, doesn't have another FCS OOC opponent.
So it's disingenuous to say that the Big Sky is "right there" with the MVFC. The Big Sky's OOC record suggests they're close to being right there with the Ivy League.
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u/Friendly_Loss1961 Montana Grizzlies 3d ago
I'm very much looking forward to Lehigh getting first rounded again by the the 4th best team in a league worse than the Ivy.
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u/Headwallrepeat South Dakota State • Miss… 3d ago
1-3 isn't a significant number and too small of sample size. If you consider the last 20 years the MVFC has won 60% of the matchups vs Big Sky and God Emperor NDSU is no longer in the conference
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u/coincidental_boner Montana State Bobcats 3d ago
This is some incredibly creative math when you could just look at composites and see how wrong you are. It also completely discounts MSU and Idaho State beating FBS schools (a PAC-12 school, in the Bengal’s case).
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u/DeKam34 Montana State • Western Wash… 3d ago
That 1-3 is two USD wins against bottom half Big Sky competition and UND beating the 2nd worst team in the Big Sky (PSU). The Big Sky win is one of the aforementioned teams beating UNI who is (very technically) one of two undefeated in conference MVFC teams. It's not suggestive of the MVFC being way better.
The Ivy League's 14-6 record is: 6-3 against the Patriot (2 wins against .500 or better), 3-3 against the CAA (2 at .500 or better), 3 NEC wins and 1 each from the Pioneer and MEAC. If you want that summarized, allow me to help: it's nobody. The best two wins, by some margin, are Colgate twice. After that we're talking about Bryant, Albany, and Howard.
Just off hand, the Big Sky has better OOC wins against: Nevada, Utah State, UNI. UIW is in there and is probably as good as any of the Ivy's second-tier wins, and 1-5 Idaho nearly beat ACU who's leading the UAC (an indisputably top 4 conference).
Spouting records without any mention of who's actually playing the games and who the wins are is useless. I would love for their to be great FCS football on the east coast. It would be better for the subdivision. Unfortunately, Lehigh, Harvard, and whichever CAA flavor of the year it is are the only good teams there right now. Maybe Mercer if you're counting them I suppose. Because the Ivy (and Patriot really) aren't going to the rest of the country to find good OOC games, it's impossible for them to prove they belong unless they do it in the playoffs, which they haven't. Since 2020, teams from east of the Ohio River that are still in the FCS are 2-7 in quarterfinals, and both of the 2 were uncompetitive in their semifinal. So they're not getting there particularly consistently, and they're losing frequently when they do.
There's a pretty clear conference hierarchy: MVFC/Big Sky, then the UAC, then everyone else.
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u/JordanMiller406 Montana State Bobcats 3d ago edited 3d ago
By Sagarin, the top 10 (out of 12) Big Sky teams are better than half the Ivy league. Put another way, the tenth best BSC team, Northern Colorado, is within a point of the fourth best Ivy league team, Cornell.
The average of the BSC is 49.11 (including UT) and Ivy is 47.09. Even the second worst BSC team would be slightly favored at a neutral location to Columbia.
I will agree that the Ivy league is more homogeneous in general. The difference between MSU and UT is 31 and the difference between Harvard and Columbia is 15.94.
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u/tdpdcpa Lehigh Mountain Hawks • Patriot 3d ago
I appreciate the engagement. My counterpoints:
If you look at Recent and Strong Recent results on Sagarin, they're much more favorable to the Ivy League, where the Ivy League actually surpasses the Big Sky on the Strong Recent measure.
If you look at SP+, the Median Big Sky team rates out at 3.8 (Weber State, FWIW), while the median Ivy League team rates out at 3.5 (Dartmouth 3.6 and Penn 3.4). However, when you do a central mean (which is what Sagarin uses to determine conference strength), the Ivy League grades out at a 5.3, while the Big Sky is a 3.9. SP+ is a lot kinder to Columbia than it is to Utah Tech and Northern Colorado.
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u/Wizzmer Tarleton State Texans 3d ago
Texas Football Life even ranks SFA above Tarleton. We got em right where we want em.
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u/alphajack22 Stephen F. Austin • Baylor 3d ago
I think the Southland is better than the UAC. I know we have NSU without a win yet but still, we are better.
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u/DeKam34 Montana State • Western Wash… 3d ago
I think it's probably an edge to the UAC still. Tarleton/SFA is basically a toss-up, Lamar/Austin Peay is basically a toss-up (maybe edge Lamar), but I'd take the group of North Alabama, ACU, West Florida over the group of SELA, UTRGV, UIW (or HCU if you really prefer). Now if you said they have as much playoff potential, I'd be right with you, because it's really a conversation about those top two then. But I think the middle to bottom of the UAC still gives it an edge in overall quality.
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u/the_racing_goat Southeastern • Marching Band 2d ago
we literally beat North Bama bruh, pay attention
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u/Friendly_Loss1961 Montana Grizzlies 3d ago
There's not one truly great team out there this season. No shade to SDSU but I think they're beatable and obviously MSU is with how banged up they are. The playoffs are going to be a bloodbath. Any team currently in the top 12-13 is capable of making a run and even some sleepers like Northern Iowa and Idaho State if they find a way into the playoffs. This is going to be an unpredictable end to the season.
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u/damnyoutuesday Montana State • Minnesota 3d ago
This seems like it's shaping up to be complete chaos in December.
Which means we're probably going to get every home team winning in the playoffs
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u/Responsible_History5 North Dakota Fighting Hawks • Sickos 3d ago
Or at least another crazy upset on the caliber of Illinois St. beating NDSU in the Fargodome.
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u/SeA1nternaL South Dakota Coyotes 3d ago
i have a feeling USD can make it to the finals. With how we’re playing, the fact that we went toe to toe with a ranked FBS team, and especially last week where we won against Southern Illinois 31-10, when just last year we went to 5 overtimes and won by 2 points against them, i am pretty confident that we’ll either win or be a contender for the MVFC title and playoff title.
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u/hallese Nebraska • South Dakota State 3d ago
This seems premature based on usd's on field performance to date. USD has played one ranked opponent and it resulted in a three score loss. The resume consists of wins over Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, Murray State, and Southern Illinois. All of those teams are below .500 with a combined record of 8-19. We are getting to the point of the season where you are what your record says you are and USD's record is ok, but definitely not thinking of Nashville levels of performance.
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u/Prudent-Cricket505 South Dakota Coyotes • MVFC 3d ago
The YSU game was a five point game in the fourth quarter. A loss is a loss but it was more competitive than the final score showed. Yotes are playing really good football right now and in their wins they have destroyed their opponents, same as sdsu.
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u/Far-Concentrate-460 South Dakota State • Dakota M… 2d ago
The things you’re saying about the YSU game open up the door on discussions on how bad USD looked against Boise State. Can’t have it both ways.
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u/Prudent-Cricket505 South Dakota Coyotes • MVFC 2d ago
What? Did you watch the game against BSU? It makes the same argument. In fact, USD was much closer to winning that game than YSU. USD was a play away from scoring to put the game within a point with 100 seconds to go. One could argue they would’ve gone for 2 to win the game.
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u/Far-Concentrate-460 South Dakota State • Dakota M… 2d ago
I did watch the game, the reasons they almost beat Boise are the same reasons they fell apart against YSU. The team depends on high variance big plays. They got the bounces in Boise and didn’t get the bounces in Youngstown.
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u/Prudent-Cricket505 South Dakota Coyotes • MVFC 2d ago
The lost the game against Boise because of a missed def holding and then a bad play by a freshman QB. They lost at YSU because they ran out of gas with 11 minutes left. Not the same at all
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u/Far-Concentrate-460 South Dakota State • Dakota M… 2d ago
Sure as long as you ignore the Boise fumble ag their 20, the TOD at the Yotes 24, the TOD at the Yotes 22, and a miraculous muffed punt. I get that not everyone is totally horned up for advanced stats but using predictive stats USD got hosed man. You also can’t act like USD wasn’t caught a possession behind basically the whole game (vs YSU) until they “ran out of gas” with a quarter left. The team is really fun and shows potential but sit the fuck down bud.
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u/Prudent-Cricket505 South Dakota Coyotes • MVFC 2d ago
Jfc you’ve clearly never played a down of football, stat boy. Type more predictive numbers in and sit this one out, kid. Lmao
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u/Far-Concentrate-460 South Dakota State • Dakota M… 2d ago
We also don’t even have to use advanced stats lol, Boise had 3 times the first downs, double the yards, and double the time of possession. How many football games you played in where a team that did that didn’t blow out the other team?
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u/hallese Nebraska • South Dakota State 3d ago
The SIU game was also a one score game in the fourth quarter so if we are dismissing the significance of the the YSU loss we also have to dismiss the significance of the SIU win.
same as sdsu
SDSU has beaten two ranked teams (#6, #13) with winning records (5-2, 4-2). Show me A.) USD's ranked win, and B.) USD's win over an opponent with a winning record.
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u/Prudent-Cricket505 South Dakota Coyotes • MVFC 3d ago
SIU was literally ranked the time they played them. Combined records of teams USD has beaten is 11-22, SDSU is 12-18…not that much of a difference. It’ll all balance out with teams played, but USD has the second toughest remaining schedule. The way they’ve played thus far, and with no clear title favorite, they absolutely have the team to make it to Nashville.
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u/SoDakJack1 3d ago
Like I said up top I think they need home field through the semis for them to make it to the Natty. If history means anything, the Yotes can’t seem to take care of business on the road deep in the playoffs.
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u/Prudent-Cricket505 South Dakota Coyotes • MVFC 3d ago
Well lately those losses have been in the state of Montana lol. If the road playoff game was in Brookings, I like our chances more than going out to Montana or down to TX. Next step for this program is hosting semis so you are right on there. Feel like USD has to win out and YSU lose one more in order for that to happen.
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u/Responsible_History5 North Dakota Fighting Hawks • Sickos 3d ago
I mean did anyone expect Illinois St. to go to Nashville? Playoff games are weird like that sometimes and if anyone has my vote to make an upset in the playoffs it would be the Yotes.
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u/SoDakJack1 3d ago edited 3d ago
Very possible. But the Yotes will need home field through the Semis for this to happen. And that would require a win in Brookings at the end of the month. Edit: would also probably require a win at Illinois State last game of the year.
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u/SeA1nternaL South Dakota Coyotes 3d ago edited 3d ago
that’s really the only thing I’m scared about; SDSU is damn good this year, and they have been confidently at or near the top this entire season. I’m a tiny bit more confident against North Dakota in 2 weeks, but SDSU is gonna be really iffy. i think one of the only reasons why we won last year was because of injuries plaguing the entire season.
I’m betting SDSU wins the championship, but it would be nice if both SD teams played each other in the finals or during the playoffs!
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u/SchuLace13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 3d ago
Lack of depth is what killed SDSU last year. I think when Jackson was hired there were 47 players on the team. Depth is wayyyyy better this year. I think are questions about USD but the talent is there to take them to a deep run.
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u/montalaskan Montana State Bobcats 3d ago
The MVFC is brutal. Even without NDSU each week seems like a battle. Not many weak links. Iron sharpens iron so you may be right.
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u/Adamscottd South Dakota State • Minnesota 3d ago
I was at the game against Southern Illinois and was really impressed with the Yotes. Definitely nervous for our game at the end of the month, and I think USD is the clear third best team in the Valley as of now.
A finals run would be a reach but I don't think it's out of the realm
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u/Headwallrepeat South Dakota State • Miss… 2d ago
I would love to see SDSU vs USD in Nashville. Last person out of South Dakota make sure the stove is off, shut off the lights and lock the doors
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u/donutman18 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 3d ago
My hot take: comments on this thread shouldn’t be downvoted if you don’t agree with it and rather just ignored… that’s why it’s called a hot take
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u/alphajack22 Stephen F. Austin • Baylor 2d ago
But it’s kinda fun to see the worst takes get obliterated by downvotes
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u/ThatguyfromBaltimore Towson Tigers • Morgan State Bears 3d ago
Towson is losing to Hampton. This team is bad bad. Also Morgan State is winning the Celebration Bowl.
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u/Responsible_History5 North Dakota Fighting Hawks • Sickos 3d ago
UND’s biggest challenge is itself. I like to be optimistic but unless UND can really get to work on some stuff, we’ll be sitting at 7-5 seasons or worse for the next few years or longer. Whether it’s injuries this year (and the team just not wanting to click) or last year and just finding a way to lose every big game we had in the regular season. I just don’t know how optimistic I can be for the rest of the season let alone next year.
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u/Ds0589 Monmouth Hawks 3d ago
My Alma mater Monmouth has a legit chance to take an unexpected CAA crown. Stony Brooks defense is bad, not like ours is any better lol. Rhode Island has really underperformed expectations. Elons dropped off. The team Im worried about is Campbell which is the final game of the year and could be a huge game.
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u/peepeepoopoo546 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 3d ago
UIW would give some teams in the top 25 a run for their money and could very well win out their schedule.
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u/failin49 Yale Bulldogs 3d ago
If Yale handles Rhode Island this week, Ivies will be strongest conference in East.
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u/Peteonastick Youngstown State Penguins 2d ago edited 2d ago
Interestingly. First time in coach Phillips 7 year career at YSU that he has not played in a dome. The stars are aligned for YSU as we have all three dome teams at home this year and things are playing out well for us. Offense is rolling and defense is improving. Going to be an interesting next 6 weeks as we have 3 home games against ranked opponents, UNI, UND and Ill St., at MSU and 2 bye weeks (Oct. 24 and Nov. 21 thanks to Sac State) This will test our coaching staff to keep them hungry! First step is a beating ball possession team of opportunity in UNI whose offense had 144 total yards against UND and broke them with 5 turnovers including a blocked punt for 6. Going to be a typical UNI YSU game this week. YSU has won the last two meetings by a total of 4 points. Go Guins!
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u/SoDakJack1 3d ago
If the Jackrabbits win at UND this weekend they will be playing in Nashville.