r/geopolitics • u/ImperiumRome • 2d ago
Paywall US floats unfreezing some Russian assets to restart Ukraine peace talks
https://www.ft.com/content/54353d3a-afed-4fec-985a-50f3dfb9be8e?syn-25a6b1a6=173
u/Jonestown_Juice 2d ago
Trump is bending over backwards to bail out Putin in his failing war. MAGA is selling out democracy.
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u/phoenix1984 2d ago
Trump bends over for Putin and it’s America who gets screwed
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u/Nightron 2d ago
Sadly it's not just Americans. Europeans suffer the worst immediate consequences of this appeasement.
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u/phoenix1984 2d ago
Good point, maybe it’s better to just say “the rest of us get screwed” because it’s pretty much everyone who isn’t a corrupt oligarch who suffers, but to varying degrees.
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u/AtomicSymphonic_2nd 1d ago
He’s desperate for any sort of win with his (increasingly disillusioned) MAGA base.
If republicans lose control of Congress (as expected), whatever remaining “ideas” he had of cementing his “legacy” of shit will be completely terminated.
And he will then be at greater risk of being fully convicted & removed once he’s impeached by the House (again).
He’s trying to save himself from the greater possibility of jail since being removed from the presidency means he is vulnerable to any and every criminal lawsuit pending against him.
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2d ago
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u/TheParmesan 2d ago
Let Ukraine go hog wild on energy related and infrastructure related attacks and the carrot becomes “pull out or Ukraine keeps going” seems like a great bargaining chip vs. attempting to neuter Ukraine on his behalf AND giving them their money back.
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2d ago
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u/TheParmesan 2d ago
Given the thrashing about of Russia stemming from these energy/infra attacks and that now they have Trump trying to squash it, I’d say it’s working better than you think it is. A country is only a few missed meals away from a revolution at any given moment. You make it painful enough for the government and things start to happen. Ukraine doesn’t need to destroy Russia, they just need to make them bleed and hurt enough that they have to back off.
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2d ago
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u/TheParmesan 2d ago
I mean you just said it yourself though - Russia already has a concession with the Ukrainian land they have. Ukraine will likely need to swallow that they’ve lost that territory, and Russia will have to swallow that’s all they’re getting. No need to sweeten the pot further for Putin when he’s bleeding and could keep bleeding.
Edit: that’s ignoring that Ukraine is slowly clawing back land as it is.
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2d ago
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u/TheParmesan 2d ago
…because Trump is still playing ball with/for him? Putin thinks he still has options to get his way, so he’s going to keep trying.
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u/zaoldyeck 2d ago
Ukraine is in dire need of two things the west simply cannot supply in the current situation—patriot interceptors, and men.
The west certainly could provide both if it wanted.
The limiting factor is exclusively political will. Nothing else.
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u/Jonestown_Juice 2d ago
Put full support behind Ukraine, sanction Russia with North Korea-level sanctions. Cut Russia off completely from the developed world. Destroy their energy infrastructure and data centers. Hammer them with propaganda telling the Russian people that they can join the rules-based order with a democratic government.
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u/Airurando-jin 2d ago
I’d agree with this take, because the alternative involves creating income potential to keep the war machine churning
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u/Alexandros6 2d ago
Two potential paths
First path
1 quicker path, restart providing military aid to Ukraine, specifically a limited number of 50 Tomahawks and a list of other missiles /long range drone such as rusty dagger .
The targets would be either softer economic targets which help deteriorate the already problematic Russian economy but most importantly Russian military infrastructure that Ukraine can reach but lacks the payload to destroy. 10 Tomahawks plus Ukrainian drones would render Alabuga (main center of Russian long range drone production) a burnt husk making everyone safer.
2 follow the Danish (now almost European approach) and sign a series of agreements with Ukraine on shared weapons development, focused on drones, UGVs, missiles, IFVs and fortifications (or more generally passive defence) ecc
3 collaborate with NATO partners and Ukraine to solve some of the issues that are plaguing both Ukraine and NATO countries in general to find technical and doctrinal solutions.
Namely trying to find an effective low cost solution to Ballistic missiles (which the US would need in spades), develop further counter drone approaches specifically to defend against middle range drone strikes and SHORAD to protect armored vehicles.
Most importantly find a way to reduce FAB’s bombs either through interception of the bombs or better by using long range air to air missiles (in the style of AIM-174B) to keep Russian jets on limited bombing runs.
4 start enforcing the existing sanctions more (since Russian missiles and weapons are filled with western technology) and use the freshly passed Graham sanction bill (approved by congress and Senate) to reduce the hydrocarbon trade with Russia, instead of breaking the sanctions we just approved ourselves…
Start being honest about the war and signal to Putin he can’t hope that Trump will enable his victory as has been done so far.
The war is kept alive also by Putin’s hope that the west will either lose interest or literally force Ukraine into surrender, as insane as that would be. Stopping that hope even simply with words would already be helpful.
There are 3 important theaters of the war, which this measures would affect.
First is the frontline itself, as long as Russian advances are minimal, or ultimately negative the continuation of the war becomes less likely, already now Russian official maps paint as conquered much more then what’s the case, possibly to fulfill Putin’s expectations.
With this steps Ukraine could not only counterattack occasionally but consistently and probably be the one creeping forward on the ground pressuring Putin to end the war.
The second theater is the most important and is the Ukrainian air campaign in Russia, which have grown exponentially in the last year, but still lacking the payload to seriously affect Russian war production and will need time to scale even more the economic damage.
Of course if US instead forces Ukraine to stop the strikes this has serious consequences on Ukrainian successes and aids Russia immensly.
The third one is Russian air campaign on Ukraine, focused during winter. Russia even if suffering exponential damage on it’s economy and industry could hope to break Ukraine first, a strong Counterdrone approach (and destroying Alabuga) coupled with more resilient infrastructure would make this an impossible objective.
none of this is Scifi, some of this is even already in development but far slower due to the US opposition.
If this measures were to be taken after a failure in bombing Ukraine to submission during the winter Putin would have interest and soon little choice but to end the war soon such as around end of 2027 start of 2028 with a ceasefire on the frontline and Ukraine obtaining security guarantees and Russia the defacto though not de iure control of occupied Ukraine/sanctions relief.
This could mean a lasting peace.
Second approach.
Change nothing, continue intelligence sharing, keep sanctions and have Europe shoulder the rest, maybe don’t insult or lie about your allies every 3rd comment.
The war will continue, Russia might maybe conquer the Donbass end of 2027/St2028, Ukraine air campaign will grow and so will Russia.
At end of 2028 Russia will realize it’s goals of subjugating Ukraine are very unlikely to work and that it has sacrificed far too much, will declare victory and some form of agreement will develop. The peace will be fragile, but possible. Also a strategically obtuse choice for current administration.
Third approach
The US cuts intelligence sharing (as is partially happening now)/relaxes sanctions on Russia/stops selling US weapons to Europe. If this is only partial Ukraines long range campaign gets stymed and it’s battlefield gains reduced.
Putin has new hope this could go further, as with literally every other time he was gifted something he will not reciprocate in the slightest except with empty promises.
The war lasts for 2028 mid 2029 a heavily suffering Ukraine and a stubborn Russia agree to an instable peace, Europe probably plays a bigger role.
If it’s complete Ukraine could face defeat on the battlefield when it’s drone centric warfare is weakened, Russia’s economy heavily reinvigorated and Europe can’t buy critical equipment from US.
The US in the meantime who decided to entertain historians by helping it’s enemies for no rational reason sees it’s weapons sale plummet due to unrealiability. New wars emerge globally from perceived US weakness/readiness to sell national interest and allies, though it’s arguably not selling if you gain squat from it (btw already seeing an increase in conflicts worldwide, and it’s still quite early).
Most probably democrats gain power in 2028 and pass the next 20 years fixing a foreign policy crisis that 20 years of the war on terror couldn’t produce, likely failing to do so.
Btw the third scenario is of course a bit more phantastical because it has to do with large predictions not an effect of weapons on the battlefield, still we can change the flavour of bad, but we are still looking at an idiotic display of self sabotage, no upsides whatsoever.
TLDR: Either the US helping Ukraine, or the US not changing anything in sanctions and intelligence sharing would be enough. The US helping Russia (as Trump is currently doing) is guaranteed to either make the war a lot longer and bloody or even bring a Russian victory along with US nuking what remains of it’s alliance systems. Help or stand by, just don’t burn everything down for God’s sake!
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u/zaoldyeck 2d ago
How do you believe it’s possible to stop this war without bringing something to the table?
"Stop this war or we will provide fuckton more resources to Ukraine and you cannot compete with that".
Trump is doing the opposite, he's encouraging Putin to double down because he seeks every opportunity to force Ukraine to concede.
Putin isn't going to declare war on NATO. He isn't going to bomb the US. So the only thing he fears is the US deciding that they want to support Ukraine fully, rather than constantly pulling support.
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u/Environmental_Beach6 2d ago
Covertly give Ukraine nukes. The war would be over by the end of the week
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u/jaybizzleeightyfour 2d ago
It's fairly obvious Trumps son in law and real estate lawyer have been negotiating with the Russians on how to make each other richer
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u/ImperiumRome 2d ago
Submission Statement:
The United States proposed that European nations unfreeze a portion of immobilized Russian sovereign assets and transfer them to a Washington-supervised financial vehicle to help revive peace talks. Pitched by US negotiators in Miami, the plan was promptly rebuffed by European delegates and Ukrainian officials who refused to surrender control over the funds. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly pushed back against the US move, asserting that assets frozen in Europe must remain a European decision. Western allies originally immobilized approximately €260 billion in Russian state assets in 2022, with the EU intending to reserve them for future Ukrainian reconstruction if Moscow fails to pay war reparations. While the US argued the assets should be leveraged in a comprehensive peace agreement, European capitals remain strongly opposed to releasing the underlying principal or returning any funds to Moscow.
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u/softwaredoug 2d ago
US bought some diesel and disabled some Ukrainian drone capabilities and got...
... nothing in return.
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u/graveyardofgoodsense 2d ago
"floating" means that Kushner and his entourage have already received a substantial contribution into their pockets.
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u/IndustrialMillennial 2d ago
Garbage move by a garbage president
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u/Firecracker048 2d ago
Trump is just going full no more plausable deniability and just is giving Russia everything it wants
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u/PickkleRiick 2d ago edited 2d ago
For what its worth normalizing relations through a rebalancing of power with Russia and China was literally written into the 2025 National Security Policy.
So this should not be a surprise
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
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u/A_Credo 2d ago
A policy that Trump's WH wrote. Shocker
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u/PickkleRiick 2d ago
Yeah, I just meant that people should not be surprised, or think they’re cracking some code when they say things like trump is a putin puppet, russian asset ext.
they literally wrote it into policy. They are not hiding it
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u/JoetheOK 2d ago
We need to keep the sanctions and tell them, "you come to the table and we'll discuss a possible easing". If you give up something in advance, you've wasted that bargaining chip. Russia will show up because they are getting their ass handed to them. Appeasement doesn't work with Putin. It never has, he just takes what you give him and demands more. Unfortunately, he has Trump on a short leash to do his bidding.
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u/Mewhomewhy 2d ago
Yes. Weakness is exactly what dictators respond to. The US is determined for WW3 proper to start.
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u/Jack-Schitz 2d ago
A lot of those assets are not in American banks, so what the rest of the world says matters a lot here.
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u/rumsnake 2d ago
I'm beginning to think more and more likely the idea that Trump sold out Ukraine in exchange for Putin's help during the midterms.
Every expert agrees that the oil deal will have minimal to no impact on the price of US oil.
We see what Russia is getting out of this deal (and some other stuff that was less publicized), but what is the US actually getting out of it?
The sudden freezing out of Zelensky, the fact that Ukranians started bombing Russian datacenters the very second this deal was announced, all feels too coincidental.
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u/NightflowerFade 21h ago
The oil deal just has minimal impact either way except for political signalling. It doesn't benefit the US or Russia that much. The only thing it does is signal that Trump is more Russia aligned, and even then intelligent voters would not take much from it. I don't even know why he does that. Maybe low information Republican voters would be more convinced to turn up to vote, while Democrats wouldn't have voted for the other side anyway so nothing Trump does could hurt those votes.
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u/Toasterturning1234 2d ago
I'm pretty sure they want Ukraine to the negotiating table, have some of Eastern Ukraine (where some of the precious minerals are) given to Russia and then have the other precious minerals mined by US companies as part of the payback of the loans the US has given them.
The debt is already there, they now want this war to end even if that means Ukraine losing territory.
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u/Whyumad_brah 2d ago
Trump correctly understanding that neither side can dictate terms as there is no capitulation, history is written by the victors, and there are none in sight. Both Russian and European demands sound like terms of surrender, and neither side has created the conditions for those demands to be relevant today. Therefore regardless of what anyone says, America is the only force today playing a constructive role in attempting to resolve this conflict, everyone else is seeking vengeance.
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u/Petrichordates 1d ago
Wildly delusional take. Fighting for your nation's sovereignty doesn't have a damn thing to do with vengeance.
Ironically, trump is the one most motivated by vengeance here since he still is angry at Zelensky for not interfering in the 2020 election like the endlessly corrupt trump tried to extort him into doing.
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u/ProsodySpeaks 1d ago
Is Ukraine seeking vengeance? Or territorial integrity and national sovereignty?
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u/Cephei101 1d ago edited 1d ago
Appeasement never works, and won’t work here.
This is not a complex concept. The only road to an end is through the exhaustion of Russia before Ukraine. And it appears to be feasible. Under the right conditions. The very conditions trump is trying to unwind right now. Continuing or further increasing trumps aid to the aggressor while fawning over and consistently defending Putin is not a winning recipe for anyone other than Russia. Aiding the aggressor while actively harming the victim will not work, and forget about the damage to US influence, respect, credibility, future alliances, and weapons sales after this odious display.
It’s servile capitulation of a declining superpower from a catastrophically flawed and incompetent leader causing domestic and global damage every day.
Your position could easily be mistaken to be unserious or made in bad faith.
Also, while self defense is in no way vengeance, vengeance for what Russia has perpetrated on its neighbor would be justified.
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u/Whyumad_brah 1d ago
Justified or not, appeasement almost always works. Finland gave up land to the USSR after the Winter War and it worked. Mexico gave up land to the USA and it worked, both are still around today. Most international borders we have today are results of wars of aggression and subsequent peace treaties.
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u/WorkingFit5413 2d ago
Lmao, Trump can float that all he wants but he’s not in charge of the money.
No wonder allies quietly moved some of the money out of the US and by default, Canada.
What more proof does anyone need that Trump is a bona fide Russian asset?
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u/AllergictoAIslop 2d ago
There is no reason to hand anything to the US when they have proven they will not act in the interest of Ukraine or Europe. In fact they have shown they will actively work against the interests of the US and Europe.
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u/hujassman 2d ago
That peace process is DOA. It's not about that, of course. It's about money, like always. Traitors.
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u/stuckanon01 2d ago
Trump is the Manchurian candidate