r/geopolitics • u/BendicantMias • 1d ago
News Iran’s precision strikes picked apart Gulf infrastructure, blunting US war plans
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/iran-crisis-infrastructure-attacks/Iran’s missiles and drones have hit Gulf infrastructure sites at least 135 times, causing cascading failures that Gulf states have often concealed. Despite repeated official statements that the damage came from debris, Reuters found the equipment struck was, time and again, exactly what mattered most.
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u/BendicantMias 1d ago edited 1d ago
SS: Irans' response to the US-Israeli war on it has repeatedly been downplayed and minimized, and worse presented as if it were the incoherent flailing of a struggling adversary. This Reuters investigation calls those presumptions into question, suggesting that Iran knew exactly what it was doing, and likely now knows even better what it should do (note that they've also just recently SUNK two cargo ships in the Strait, which are two out of only 3 commercial ships sunk in this entire war - this is likely in response to the US recently gloating about its success at opening up the Strait and getting more oil through, oil flows are back down again now).
The US, which has imposed a blockade on Iranian oil, repeatedly downplays Iran’s capacity for destruction. Arab Gulf countries often fail to acknowledge major damage and frequently blame harm to their facilities on falling debris from successful interceptions of Iranian munitions.
Attacks like these on Gulf infrastructure have been announced without detail during the war by governments in the region and other players. But a Reuters investigation reveals how precise these strikes have been, the resulting failure of critical equipment at key facilities, and the extent of the damage – both physical and economic.
Ryan Stevens, a former US Marine Corps special operations airstrike coordinator who reviewed Reuters’ findings, said Iran’s strikes showed “precision, targeting expertise, and patience.”
Gulf states are suppressing information about the toll. It is illegal in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to take or distribute certain photos or video of the aftermath of strikes.
All 14 said it was highly improbable that damage to essential equipment at dozens of major infrastructure sites was caused primarily by debris falling haphazardly from the sky. Many of them cited visual evidence of explosive detonations, rather than just the impact of a chunk of metal, and pointed to the operational importance of the targets themselves.
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u/Luke-HW 1d ago
Meanwhile the US was operating on decade-old intel, which they fed into an AI. When we double-tapped a school on the first day of the war, I could tell that it was already over.
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u/Catch_ME 1d ago
It was triple tapped actually.
The first strike killed the educators and school girls. The 2nd killed the local civilians that rushed to help. The 3rd was the first responders that arrived to pull people out.
Double and triple tapping in civilian areas need to be a war crime
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u/Caberes 1d ago
I'm pretty sure the satellite images confirmed a double tap on school, not sure where you are getting the third strike from.
Double and triple tapping in civilian areas need to be a war crime
It's a tragedy, but the building was within the walls of a fortified and active IRGCN compound. I'm not sure I'd consider it a civilian area...
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u/Vol_in_tears 1d ago
It's a tragedy, but the building was within the walls of a fortified and active IRGCN compound. I'm not sure I'd consider it a civilian area...
Take a look at how many schools are on US military bases.
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u/TominatorXX 1d ago
It was definitely known by the civilians in the dod damage mitigation department, but Trump and heckseph eliminated that office.
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u/belortik 1d ago
You can't define civilian and non-civilian areas in modern conflicts. You'll just get the weaker side (or both sides) hiding in civilian areas then.
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u/Catch_ME 1d ago
We already do it. There's are certain weapons not allowed to be used in civilian areas like white phosphorus.
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u/NekoCatSidhe 1d ago edited 1d ago
That's... more or less what I expected, the IRGC having shown time and again than they are both dangerously competent at their jobs and completely ruthless.
And I am not sure what was the point in hiding all that damage, except to pretend that our political leaders had not made an horrific mistake in starting that war and that they were not very incompetent at running it, which should have been obvious to anyone paying attention a long time ago.
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u/Kiyae1 1d ago
The American military is, by and large, dangerously competent at their jobs and completely ruthless, arguably moreso than the IRGC.
Iranian leadership on the other hand is far more competent than American leadership currently is.
Additionally, the American military hasn’t really been preparing for this particular conflict for over forty years, they’ve been preparing for a defensive conflict with Iran with the goal of containment and deterrence, because that’s what every president since Reagan has been envisioning. None of the previous presidents had any interest at all in a direct confrontation with Iran, so the military didn’t really prepare for it. This is all Iran has planned for for years.
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u/SentientFotoGeek 1d ago
So predictable. How we didn't see this coming is mind boggling.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago
To be fair, Trump claim that Iran military been obliterated and beg for deals while losing control of the strait
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
As soon as Israel realized that Iran could hit them at ballistic missiles, they chickened out 🤷
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u/The-Intermediator141 1d ago
What are you talking about, Israel literally knew from the start of the current conflict that Iran could strike it with ballistic missiles. This is not new information. It’s the reason in 2025 they were targeting Iranian mobile launch platforms.
What IS new is Iran striking the Gulf states, despite the UAE & Saudi Arabia barring the U.S. from using their airspace to attack Iran. Didn’t make much difference, and Iran has actually ended up targeting the UAE with over twice the missiles & drones that Israel has been targeted with, which is interesting.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Israel knew Iran had ballistic missiles, of course. That’s why it targeted mobile launchers. But knowing a threat exists isn’t the same as knowing how much damage and how long a sustained exchange will cost. Iran’s attacks on Gulf states are a separate issue. What evidence shows Iranian retaliation had no influence on Israel’s decision to halt its campaign?
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u/Exact_Depth_896 1d ago
What evidence shows Iranian retaliation had influence on Israel’s decision to halt its campaign?
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
The evidence is that Israel stopped attacking Iran 🤷
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u/MasterAyy 1d ago
Your logic doesn't make sense. He's asking for evidence 'why' Israel halted their campaign and you are using the action of the halted campaign itself as the evidence for your reason. If I said Israel stopped attacking Iran because they feared an alien invasion I can't say that "the evidence is that Israel stopped attacking Iran". You need to provide evidence why your specific reason is what caused the decision.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Israel and USA start the war. The war is still ongoing. The objectives have not been reached. Israel chickened out.🤷
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u/MasterAyy 1d ago
No Israel chickened out, not because they are afraid of Iran, but because an alien invasion is imminent. My evidence is that Israel stopped attacking Iran.
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u/Exact_Depth_896 18h ago
you are going around in circles with zero evidence but your own propositions
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u/Independent-Log-839 1d ago
What a stupid response.
Are we just going to ignore that israel was still hitting hezbollah despite iran theeats? Why were they still hitting them?
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Because Hezbollah and Iran are two different targets. Israel continuing to hit Hezbollah doesn’t prove it was willing to sustain a direct war with Iran. In fact, Israel and Iran halted their direct attacks in June 2026, while Israel said it would continue operations in Lebanon. So the question is whether Israel was prepared to keep fighting Iran after Iran retaliated, not whether it was prepared to keep attacking Hezbollah. You’re answering a different question.
So yes Israel chickens out when the enemy can defend themselves3
u/Independent-Log-839 1d ago
Them being 2 different targets does not disprove my original statement, your original statemeant claimed that israel chickened out due to the fear of them getting hit by iranian ballistic missles. My hezbollah statemeant disproves that statemeant of yours because they were indeed not afraid of iranian ballistic missles as they still kept on attacking lebanon desoite iran threats
About your point
"Israel chickens out when the enemy can defend themselves" Is also hilarious because israel stopped attacking because both sides agreed to stop attacking eachother, I would like to see you a source showing that Israel indeed chickned out of this war
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
You’re confusing willingness to accept one level of risk with willingness to accept another. Attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon is not the same as exchanging ballistic missile strikes directly with Iran. Continuing one operation doesn’t prove Israel wasn’t concerned about the costs of the other.
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u/Independent-Log-839 23h ago
Your original point "As soon as Israel realized that Iran could hit them at ballistic missiles, they chickened out" which is funny because they were willingly to exchange fire after iran hit them due to lebanon in june, you STILL HAVE NOT given me EVIDENCE that israel chickned out after the war. My point still stands they arent or werent afraid that iran can launch out a response
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u/Exact_Depth_896 18h ago
more epistemic circles; its evidently like the cyclical process involved in masturbation
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u/neverrelaxe 1d ago
what evidence do you have that it had influence?
you cant prove a negative btw
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
It’s my view that Israel chickened out when they found out that Iran could hit back. What is your view 🤓
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u/neverrelaxe 1d ago
that they focusing on gaza and lebanon and you invented this theory out of thin air
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
As far as I know, the war with Iran is still ongoing. Which means the objective has not been reached. So it’s my opinion that Israel chickened out 👍🏻🤷
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u/neverrelaxe 1d ago
they killed the leaders on day 1, they killed hezbollah and hamas leaders. they blew up the nuclear facilities.
now they wait for iran to build them up if they choose, and blow them up again.
but they chickened out ok
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Yes they chickened out because if all the goals were achieved the USA would not still be fighting 🤷🤓
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u/neverrelaxe 1d ago
israels goals and usas goals are not 100% aligned
what is aligned: no nuclear weapon for iran whats not: global oil price
sure it would be nice if israel continued to help out, maybe donald told them no, maybe they decided not to
but they are not chickens they are killers
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u/LateralEntry 1d ago
You kidding? Iran launched the largest ballistic missile strike ever on Israel in 2025 and they still took out Khamenei in 2026
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Exactly, Iran demonstrated it could hit Israel with ballistic missiles. The question is whether Israel was willing to sustain the costs of a prolonged war with Iran, not whether it could retaliate. A successful strike or counterstrike doesn’t prove either side was winning strategically.
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u/Exact_Depth_896 1d ago
Your thesis is totally destroyed by this evidence
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
You are allowed to have your own viewpoint on the subject 👍🏻🤓
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u/HoightyToighty 1d ago
Are you chickening out right now, as you claim Israel was when it "realized" Iran could reach it?
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u/Fake_Citizen 1d ago edited 1d ago
This isn't true. Any war planners would have expected Iran to retaliate.
Iran tried to threaten Israel with ballistic missile strikes to stop them from attacking Hezbollah's stronghold. Israel attacked Hezbollah anyway. Iran launched missiles at Israel, which was mostly shot down.
Israel retaliated by striking missile facilities as well as decapitation strikes on their leaders. Iran was spooked and chose not to escalate further.
I would say that Israel's strikes are way more potent than USA due to their intel and their willingness to assassinate anyone without caring about collerateral damage aka their entire family.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Expecting retaliation isn’t the same as being prepared for its scale or consequences. Iran demonstrated it could strike Israeli cities with ballistic missiles, despite Israel intercepting many of them. Israel’s intelligence and targeted strikes don’t prove it could sustain a prolonged war with Iran without paying a heavy price. What evidence shows Israel stopped because Iran was “spooked” rather than because both sides had strategic reasons to avoid further escalation?
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u/Fake_Citizen 1d ago edited 1d ago
1) Israeli attacks on Hezbollah continued while Iran did not retaliate in any forms thereafter. 2) Israel was not attacked at all when US resumed bombing on Iran's coastline to regain control of the Straits of Hormuz in July 2026.
Iran could have continued sending missiles towards Israel just like how they did to US bases in the middle east. But they knew that if they even attempted attacking Israel, they would be getting hammered on two fronts just like the first round. They are the only middle eastern country who WILL bomb them back, and painfully.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
You’re assuming Iran refrained from attacking Israel because it feared retaliation, but you haven’t established that. The 2025 campaign ended after Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities, and the ceasefire followed US intervention and pressure on both sides. Israel claimed it had achieved its objectives, but that doesn’t prove its decision was unaffected by the damage and cost of Iran’s retaliation. What evidence rules out that those costs influenced the decision?
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u/Fake_Citizen 1d ago edited 1d ago
The events after the first ceasefire in April 2026 has already established that. Iran could have launched a few more missiles at Israel when US resumed attacks on Iran or when Hezbollah was attacked.
1) Two front war 2) Israel will decapitate and terrorise IRGC leadership and its members which US Navy does not do. US only goes for hard targets. Iran is extremely fearful of this. 3) Civil uprising as a result of 2.
In fact, Israel wants Iran to attack so that Israel can finish off IRGC with a casus belli.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
You’re describing plausible reasons Iran might avoid further escalation, but you’re treating speculation as proof. Iran not launching more missiles doesn’t establish that fear of Israeli retaliation was the decisive factor; it could also reflect military losses, strategic calculations or a desire to avoid a wider war.
More importantly, you’re conflating Iran’s restraint with Israel’s decision to stop fighting. The June 2025 ceasefire followed Trump’s intervention, and Israel explicitly agreed to his proposal. Iranian missiles had also killed four people in Beersheba shortly before the ceasefire. That doesn’t prove the damage influenced Israel’s decision, but neither can you rule it out.
And if Israel actually wanted Iran to attack so it could finish off the IRGC, that undermines your claim that Iran’s restraint simply demonstrates how effectively Israel deterred it. What evidence distinguishes your explanation from these alternatives?2
u/Fake_Citizen 18h ago
There is no such thing as definite answer. You can only get them from the Ayatollah or his inner circle. Your argument is moot.
Iran not launching more missiles doesn’t establish that fear of Israeli retaliation was the decisive factor; it could also reflect military losses, strategic calculations or a desire to avoid a wider war.
You have already answered the question and contradicted yourself in the process. So, bombing other gulf states would not risk a wider war, but bombing Israel would? Even when military losses were mostly caused by Israel, so what happened to the desire for revenge?
The answer is very simple. It is not worth hitting Israel because they WILL make it painful. You have answered that youself.
Israel chickening out? Any person who knows geopolitics would never think so.
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u/Andyseawolf 17h ago
You admit we can’t know Iran’s exact reasoning, yet claim certainty that Israel’s retaliation is the reason. That’s speculation, not proof. Military losses and escalation risks are also factors. And being militarily powerful doesn’t mean a country never backs down when the costs get too high. That’s geopolitics too.
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u/Fake_Citizen 14h ago
Again, the answer is taking inferences from their actions which events since Feb 26 have shown.
Military losses and escalation risks are also factors.
This is deterrence, not "chickening out" as you have claimed. You have contradicted yourself again.
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u/Exact_Depth_896 1d ago
What evidence is there that they had any influence? They roused the population.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
The war is ongoing, and Israel has a stopped attacking. Why are they not helping the USA? They chickened out 🤷
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay 1d ago
You’re reducing a nuanced situation to back and white. Iran just needs to attack all the radar installations the area but even radar in Türkiye can protect Israel because Iran needs to use lrbms to strike Israel. For more major attacks on Israel the conflict would need to escalate first otherwise it’s a waste of missiles. Take out the radar they can and refueling aircraft is the Iranian strategy and it makes sense
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u/ihavestrings 1d ago
Iran stopped shooting at Israel because too many missiles were getting shot down. Iran threatened Israel multiple times after this when Israel was attacking Hezbollah, and Israel shrugged.
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Iran having missiles intercepted doesn’t mean it posed no serious threat. Interceptions aren’t always complete, and some missiles still got through. Likewise, Israel continuing to attack Hezbollah doesn’t prove Iranian retaliation had no influence on its decisions. You’re assuming Israel wasn’t deterred without proving that its decisions were unaffected.
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u/ihavestrings 20h ago
Here you go:
Iran warns US against Israeli attack on south Lebanon ridge held by Hezbollah, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-us-against-israeli-attack-south-lebanon-ridge-held-by-hezbollah-2026-09-03/Didn't stop Israel.
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u/Andyseawolf 20h ago
That proves Israel was willing to continue attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon despite Iran’s warning. It doesn’t prove Israel isn’t deterred by the prospect of Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel itself. Those are two very different situations. Israel can attack a target in Lebanon while still being cautious about a direct war with Iran. You’re confusing willingness to attack one target with a willingness to accept the costs of another.
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay 1d ago
Too many missiles we’re being shot down not because of our superior doctrine but because the remaining air defense would require escalating to attack a nato country or a us destroyer
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u/leeta0028 1d ago
Lol, Israel NEVER intended to participate in the war on Iran. Even when they were pushing Trump to do it, they were saying they have minimal ability to project power there (mainly with regards to ground or naval power.)
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u/Andyseawolf 1d ago
Israel launched a major military operation against Iran on 13 June 2025, striking nuclear and missile facilities and killing senior military leaders. It clearly did participate. The question is whether it ended the campaign on its own terms or whether Iranian retaliation and US pressure helped force a ceasefire. What evidence proves Iran’s ability to retaliate played no role?
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u/ProfessorTimely8711 8h ago
CAN anyone tell me if the defense systems are working properly on some or all the bases now? when I read the news about the Pentagon hiding things a lot of things from the public was wondering if this was one of the things that they are hiding. Me and friends can’t believe the liar at the helm or the other dummy supposedly in chg. Makes me sick we are we we are today.
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u/kuzuman 1d ago
Historically, the Arabs feared the Iranians/Persians because when they made a move tend to be definitive.
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u/Abdulkarim0 1d ago
I cannot recall a single battle in which the Persians defeated the Arabs since the time of Umar ibn al-Khattab, who crushed the Persians at the Battle of al-Qadisiyyah. Ever since that day, the Persians' resentment toward the Arabs has never ceased.
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u/tachyon534 1d ago
Almost like Iran had been planning for this exact scenario for decades and knew exactly how to undermine the US in the face of overwhelming firepower, and the US walked straight into the trap for no reason whatsoever.