In an academic program titled “Neither War Nor Peace” hosted by the University of Tehran, Hamzeh Rahim-Safavi, a faculty member of the Faculty of Law and Political Science at the University of Tehran, presented a raw and rarely seen picture of the all-encompassing deadlock facing the Islamic Republic’s regional, nuclear, and domestic policies. Attempting to introduce himself simply as “Hamzeh Safavi” and expressing critical views, he has tried to distance himself from his identity as the son of Yahya Rahim-Safavi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and senior advisor to the Supreme Leader. Nonetheless, his remarks have drawn significant media attention precisely because they come from the son of an influential IRGC figure. Born in 1981 and an assistant professor at the University of Tehran, he set aside regime propaganda slogans during the discussion, formally acknowledging military defeat in Syria, the failure of a 30-year nuclear strategy, and the emergence of devastating scenarios such as the “Libyanization” of Iran and the widespread assassination of commanders. From an analytical perspective, these statements not only expose the futility of decades of costly military expenditures drawn from the livelihoods and lives of Iranian citizens but also reveal the regime’s dread over the potential convergence of an external war with popular uprisings.

Below is a summary of the interview with Safavi, who also serves as the head of the Future Studies Institute of the Islamic World.

Admission of Defeat in Syria: The Collapse of Ideological Illusions

For years, the Islamic Republic concealed its costly military intervention in Syria behind keywords such as “Defending the Shrine” and ideological missions. However, Hamzeh Safavi explicitly admitted to the total defeat of this project, describing its objectives as merely a geopolitical attempt to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea.

He clarified: “In Syria, we lost; there is no doubt about it. However, from my perspective, the entire project was neither an ideological debate nor a religious one, but a strategic maneuver.”

Pointing to the historical repetition of these ambitions, he added: “Whenever other powers managed to sever Iran’s connection from east to west, or when Iran became so weak that it lost its connectivity-driven vision or fell into miscalculation, Iran suffered defeat. Meanwhile, whenever we feel we have power, we constantly attempt to reach the Mediterranean—whether through merchant networks, military invasion, or proxy forces and allies.”

Safavi also emphasized that regime-affiliated actors incorrectly viewed the matter through an “ideological” lens, whereas Syria was merely a pawn in a regional game of influence that has now ended in heavy defeat.

The 30-Year Nuclear Deadlock: “We Neither Built a Bomb Nor Enjoyed Benefits”

A major portion of the poverty, inflation, and economic pressure imposed on Iranian society stems from the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and the resulting sanctions. Safavi conceded that the regime’s policy of becoming a nuclear threshold state has failed, trapping the country in a “security dilemma.”

According to him, Iran planned to reach the nuclear threshold to build a bomb if necessary, but due to an inability to build trust or form alliances with superpowers, an international consensus was forged against the country. Safavi stressed: “For 20 to 30 years, Iran has been embroiled in resolving the nuclear issue in a way that it has neither been able to build a bomb nor benefit from the advantages of membership in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).” Expressing concern over the potential snapback of UN sanctions and international alignment, he warned that if a global consensus forms against Iran, the process of selling discounted oil and purchasing goods will face a paralyzing crisis.

Geopolitical Deadlock and Washington’s Three Options: “Surrender, War, or Slow Death”

In stark contrast to official claims of “erasing Israel from the map,” Safavi admitted that the balance of power has proven the impossibility of such slogans: “Ultimately, it became clear that neither can they eliminate the Islamic Republic, nor can the Islamic Republic erase Israel from the map.”

Citing diplomatic consultations, he outlined the regime’s stalemate regarding the United States: “Apparently, the U.S. has no desire to negotiate and has placed three paths before Iran: surrender, war, or slow death. They say you have a choice regarding the first path; between the second and third, we are the ones who decide.”

Safavi also referenced aggressive scenarios by Israel and the U.S., including pursuing the plan for the “Libyanization of Iran,” executing a “mowing the grass” strategy through the assassination of 1,000 to 1,500 officials to force absolute surrender, destroying missile cities and underground command centers at depths of 60 to 120 meters using bunker-buster bombs or tactical weapons, and striking devastating blows to infrastructure to target public livelihoods.

At the same time, he admitted that the regime was caught off guard due to flawed calculations: “One of the main reasons Iran was caught off guard was that it never thought they would assassinate our officials without any hesitation. Even among ourselves, many officials in the country did not believe they would do such a thing.”

The Nightmare of Simultaneous War and Protests, and the Dismissal of Civil Demands

Perhaps the most crucial part of Safavi’s remarks was the unveiling of the security apparatus’s terror regarding the explosive potential of Iranian society. He identified the worst-case scenario for the regime as the simultaneous occurrence of external war and a popular uprising: “At one point, protests occurred and then war; at another point, war broke out in hopes that protests would follow. One scenario is the simultaneous occurrence of protests and war, which would be the worst-case scenario.”

However, the analyst’s answer to such a crisis relies on the same security paradigm of ignoring citizens’ fundamental rights and suppressing civil demands. Deflecting from core issues, he dismissed women’s resistance against mandatory hijab and political opposition to the ruling structure as “laughable” and trivial: “Debates between Reformists and Principalists are truly laughable in the face of the threat heading toward us, as are internal debates regarding mandatory hijab and other matters. These issues should really not be the central focus of governing the country; even the issue of supporting or opposing the governance structure must give way to a national concern for preserving our country.”

This is an older documentary by Frontline. I'm wondering how accurate the information here is, specifically with regard to Tehran's street attitude/mood on the street towards Saudi Arabia and the US in the early part of the documentary.

You reap what you sow france. 🤷‍♂️

The Yemeni government forces claim they have “neutralised” more than 430 Houthi fighters in operations during the past 24 hours.

In a social media post, the spokesperson for the government forces, Majed al-Nazili, said they carried out 1,292 “targeting operations” against “legitimate military targets,” which also destroyed more than 100 vehicles and pieces of equipment.

Al-Nazili said government forces seized control of key positions in Marib governorate and “continue to exert escalating operational pressure” on the southern and western fronts.

“In Taiz, warplanes continue to launch precision strikes that have decimated militia reinforcement convoys and combat formations,” he added.

Current reports are unconfirmed but this would represent a significant technological breakthrough for Iranian rebels if true. *CORRECTION*: attacks occurred in NW Iran

I monitor Oil Price and NVIDIA's stock options for both war and personal interests, Oil skyrocketed, NVIDIA is now falling around %2. Market's are about to be closed in 30 minutes from now and also IRGC hit multiple cargo ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Isreali media and officials both said that regime wants to do something and I read on X and Telegram that two missiles were shot from Tabriz (target unknown, maybe Israel?) and basically everything is in favor of war to be resumed.

Also, in Karaj, GPS is not working. You can't even use "رانتی" apps like Snapp and Tapsi, Neshan, etc. Some high schools made their classes online as well. What's your opinion?