ES vwaps and volume profiles, Jan 1st 2026 1700CT (yellow), Reopen after latest contract expiry Sept 20th 2026 1700CT (white), and Highest Point in current contract (also the ATH) Oct 6th 10:25am CT (orange).

A POC for the Contract formed directly under the Contract vwap, creating good support for moving upwards. Latest Friday price broke above the Highest Point vwap and was stopped by the Highest Point VAH. The next target looks to be a HVN around 7878, if price can break above this I believe it will continue to move upwards to climb on top of the Yearly VAH and reach as far as it can towards the Yearly 3rd upper deviation before EOY.

Strategy Inc just flashed a daily buy signal on this trend indicator around $150–$155.

Looking back at the chart:

• Sept 2020: First buy signal right before the 2021 run
• Early 2023: Second buy signal caught the bottom before it ran to $500+
• Now: First buy signal in over 3 years after sitting at $154

Anyone buying here or waiting for more confirmation?

I need someone to verify my theory or improve on it if I am missing the pot.

On the daily timeframe we are currently getting ready to start Elliott wave 3. The massive downtrend was the retrace a, b, c of the previous Elliott wave (retrace started 2/3/26).

Now after accumulation period (30/6 - 3/8). Wave 1 started 5/8, wave 2 started 25/8 and wave 3 started 7/10.

Wave 3 being the biggest wave of the 5 will go up to the next fib level - 5163.62.

Do you agree?

To add to my other TA chart on Wolfspeed $WOLF the other day -> https://www.reddit.com/r/technicalanalysis/comments/1x17zpp/wolfspeed_wolf_138_owned_by_institutions_with/

The OBV has been an obsession of mine in trying to decipher how stocks move in relation to them, and applying Gann Fan Analysis has been an eye opening experience when it comes to TA. So, in short, OBV measures buying pressure, while Gann Fan Theory states that stocks tend to move within their Angles over-time, that when one Angle finds support, the stock will eventually move to the next Angle above (the opposite can happen with a Gann Fan Angle loses support...).

From this chart, Wolfspeed Daily OBV jumped up massively in July 2025 all the way to it's 1/2 Ascending Gann Fan Angle, when they filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, but the stock price was barely changed until they actually emerged from C11 Bankruptcy with 70% of it's debt eliminated; from there, the OBV busted through the 1/2 Gann Fan Angle, erupting from a Dollar to mid $30s in a couple weeks, but then sunk back down into the teens. From the Chart shown in the linked reddit post above, Wolf found support on the Descending 3/1 Gann Fan Angle in the teens, while at the same time, on the OBV chart, it was finding support on it's 1/2 Ascending Gann Fan Angle, and when the AI Datacenter Bull narrative took off in the Summer, Short sellers were finally forced to cover after fighting against these Angles for so long, that the stock then JUMPED from the mid Teens into the $80s!

I can't quite fully explain what happens when stocks find support at their Gann Fan Angles, something to do with Gamma Exposures, perhaps (theory of mine, because I've noticed accts on twitter commenting on high gamma lvls, when stocks are near their OBV Gann Fan Angles), that FORCES Short Sellers to finally cover their positions that produces these explosive moves. Anyway, now Wolfspeed is near that 1/2 Ascending Gann Fan Angle again in the OBV, would probably take another week or so of gradually trading sideways in the $30 range for the OBV to come in contact with that Angle again, and I am damn curious what happens. Have a few lotto calls, Volume support at $30 is strong, chances are, it ***might*** see another squeeze.

Many software stocks.

The bottom one MKTX is $5.7B market cap. Which is a take over so it doesn't really count. I need to put a line in to clear those out but I haven't figured out how to do that.

When the main stocks fit on one page it's kind of poor market conditions.

Here's the kind of chart that is on the list.

NTAP Nice tight little bars. It's a sign of stability in a good bull market. Some might call it accumulation. When the bars start increasing in size and volatility, even if it is still going up, it means the end could be near.

Rule#4 The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way. (and BTC went from 2 cent to 120,000)

The Economist on its cover asks, "Will bonds blow up?"  Is it a contrarian's signal to buy bonds (in expectation of lower longer-term yields)?

If I overlay my chartwork on The Economist's Bond "signal," YIELD will need to roll over and nose-dive beneath 4.75%-4.80% to trigger a serious trend reversal. Otherwise, weakness in YIELD will be considered a minor pullback in a dominant uptrend pattern that is destined to blow through 5.50% en route to 6.00%. 

Furthermore, to get a significant decline in YIELD, we will need some help-- maybe a lot of help, from the Oil market, which at the moment (see my attached 2-hour chart) indicates that Oil needs to crash through 86.00 to enhance both a bond market rally (yield decline) and a stock market pop to new ATHs.

A relief rally in bonds (TLTs) accompanied by a pop in equity prices, however temporary it might be, leads me to anticipate that such a scenario-- a pullback in YIELD accompanied by a thrust in ES to new ATHs is THE RALLY to reduce exposure to equities in general and to technology in particular.

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 48.1
10:00 AM | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Previous: 4.6%

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #ConsumerSentiment #InflationExpectations

As the Title says, Shortsellers tanked $WOLF to below it's Descending 4/1 Gann Fan Angle at $34, because if that dam breaks, it could squeeze to the Top of it's Descending Gann Fan at $65, where the Blue Arrow is pointing. Wolfspeed found support on it's $30 support level, and also that Ascending Bold Blue Trendline, that has acted as historical support. Watching $34 closely, if you're a gambling Man/Woman, may be worth picking up a shitton of $50 Calls several months out.....

Support below (VZ, Sep 30): price sat 1.6% above a band buyers had stepped in at 12 times. Close to the floor, it's clear where a buy is wrong.

Resistance overhead (INTC, Sep 24): it closed above one ceiling, and the next was 11% higher. How much room is left matters as much as the breakout.

How stretched (PLTR, Feb 18 2025): +51% over the 50DMA after 10 sessions at RSI >= 70. A fast move feels like a sell; these numbers show how far it really ran.

Is the dip turning (NVDA, Aug 4): 3 of 4 steps back. One green day isn't a turn

Is the run topping (ORCL, Oct 1 2025): after the Sep 10 peak, three cracks, each with its date.

Earnings (META, Oct 29 2025): the report gapped price below 4 support bands at once. A floor can't catch an open below it.

These are guardrails I look at, not buy/sell signals. Not financial advice.

OMER Omeros stock watch, at 18.79 support area with bullish indicators.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 22.44   Profit: 17.4%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 18.05
• Loss: 5.6%   P/L ratio: 3.1 : 1 - Good
• Target 2: 23.57   Profit: 23.3%   P/L ratio: 4.2 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Excellent long trade quality

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Uptrend turned sideways, may continue or pullback.

SpaceX is sitting steady in a solid uptrend right now, holding well above its key moving averages with all signs pointing to sustained upward momentum so far. The price is creeping right up to touch the upper Bollinger Band after a quiet stretch of gains, and it’s starting to feel like the short-term move is getting a little stretched out here. There’s still some room left to run before the RSI hits overbought territory, but the latest leg up isn’t getting much fresh volume support — that’s the obvious weak spot in this otherwise clean bullish setup. The trend strength readings rule out a false breakout for now, but we’re running low on gas left for further sharp acceleration. A pullback to test the key support zone wouldn’t even break this current healthy uptrend, and it’d probably be the most natural next step here.

Curious how everyone is positioned right now — riding the momentum higher, or waiting for that dip to load back in?

Here's something worth debating.
This simulation takes 906 Qullamaggie long entries and shows what happens when you change just one thing: how much you risk per trade.
The strategy has a 24.5% win rate.
Average winner: +8R
Average loser: -1R

Now look at the drawdowns:
0.25% risk per trade

• Typical drawdown: 8%
• Worst drawdown: 16%

0.5% risk per trade

• Typical drawdown: 15%
• Worst drawdown: 30%

1% risk per trade

• Typical drawdown: 28%
• Worst drawdown: 51%

Same trades. Completely different experience.
And that's where it gets interesting.
Everyone wants the returns from aggressive position sizing. But how many would actually keep following the strategy when half their account is gone?
It's easy to say you'd trust the system when you're looking at a finished backtest. It's a different story when you're watching your equity disappear trade after trade.
These are simulated results based on historical trades, not guaranteed outcomes.

So here's the question:
Would you risk 1% per trade knowing a 50% drawdown is possible, or would you sacrifice potential returns to keep your risk at 0.25%?
And if you've actually traded through a 30%+ drawdown, did you stick to your strategy or change it?
Curious to hear from traders who've been through it, not just backtested it.

AAON It put in a nice bottom. Then took off really good 4 days. Now it looks like tightening range to me. It's still ok but one bad day away from disaster. Or one good day away from doing good again. It's an AI infrastructure company.

AAON 30 minute chart

CNXN Only need one line on that chart. 5 days ago I thought about selling it. 2 days ago I did. It's still ok. In this choppy market I would rather take profits, while I have them. It's really low volume and big spreads sometimes, don't use market orders with those. Stink orders work good. I'm watching the 85 level to see what happens.

ARKG Now that's the kind of bearish engulfing candle you should pay attention to. It may be the sign of a quite large down trend ahead. I didn't own it.

November Crude Oil is UP nearly 5% at 92.44 (see my attached 2-Hour Chart), and is climbing toward a challenge of consequential resistance from 93.80 to 97.00 that, if hurdled and sustained, will trigger a projection to 110.00. Conversely, as long as the resistance plateau keeps a lid on rising prices, the bond market will have reason to stay in check (benchmark YIELD under 5.35%), keeping inflationistas at bay and equity indices from a risk-off, long-liquidation event...

Technically, however, my near-term November Crude Oil setup argues that Tuesday's (Oct 6th) low at 86.86 has the "right look" of the completion of a correction from the Sep 15th rally high at 102.07 (-15%), which, if accurate, means that we should brace ourselves for a "destabilizing" upside thrust in Oil prices that already is underway.

There is a lot of interest in ARKG in our room for obvious reasons: It has climbed 100% since we first started talking about the extremely promising technical setup that was maturing at the end of 2025 into the first days of 2026.

Now what-- after an 18% whoosh to the downside in the past 48 hours?

From a trading pattern perspective, I am expecting ARKG to find support in and around the sharply up-sloping 50 DMA, now at 47.71, which will provide the plateau for a recovery that my work indicates will struggle to get through 51-54, where ARKG will roll over into another nosedive that will press the stock towards my optimal corrective target window in the 44 to 47 upside reversal support window.

MU closed Wednesday at $1,088, up 4.06% from Tuesday's $1,045.56. It opened weak near $1,017, tagged $1,011, then buyers took it to $1,089. Volume was 30M. After-hours held around $1,093.

Pre-market is now showing around $1,070.75, down about 1.6% – giving back some of yesterday's pop.

Here's the GEX setup:
Put Wall $1,000, Call Wall $1,100, gamma flip around $1,040.26. Wednesday's close at $1,088 is sitting above the gamma flip and the Put Wall, below the Call Wall – positive gamma, with $1,100 as the lid.

Technically, we're above the middle Bollinger band ($1,032.65) and below the upper band ($1,148.37). RSI in the mid 50s. MACD positive but flattening.

Now the numbers are already on the tape. Fiscal Q4 came in at $54.23B revenue and $33.42 adjusted EPS – ahead of the roughly $51B and $31.6 expected. FQ1 guide was about $61.5B and $38.15. Management called FQ1 the gross-margin floor for fiscal 2027, with 26 strategic customer agreements covering more than 35% of estimated revenue through 2030 and about $32B in related commitments. HBM is still the scarcity story, including custom work with Nvidia.

That's why a $3,000 Street-high target showed up this week – aggressive, well above the $1,500 cluster.

The split is simple. Bulls want $1,100 cleared, then $1,150-1,200, with the June high at $1,255 as the real magnet. Bears point at the chop since the print: $1,097 on Oct 1, fade to $1,045, then a one-day bounce. Capex is stepping up – first-half FY27 around $25B. A $3,000 target doesn't move the stock if $1,110 keeps rejecting.

Short-term, $1,040-1,050 is first support. $1,011 was Wednesday's low. $1,090-1,110 is the lid. Lose $1,040 and this bounce was just a headline day. Clear $1,110 on volume and $1,150 is back in play.

I'm not chasing $1,088 into that lid after a 4% reversal day. The earnings case is real. The chart still has to confirm it.

DYOD🫡

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 200K | Previous: 197K
4:30 AM | Fed Speaker: FOMC Member Waller Speaks

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #UnemploymentClaims #FOMC

Every time the monthly RSI has crossed back above its moving average, it has historically coincided with the beginning of a new bullish phase.

The other thing that stands out is the RSI being above 50. That’s not typically where Bitcoin spends much time during major bear markets.

Not saying this guarantees a bull market, but the momentum is starting to look interesting.

What’s everyone’s current status? Based on the market breadth (McClellan Summation Index) being negative but price at ATH, similar to end of 2021 and beginning of 2025. Another similar was 2015 when price stayed high while breadth deteriorated before “Black Monday” crash. Not saying a crash is imminent, just that (based on my own strategy) I’ve become bearish since close of yesterday sold S&P500 stocks and holding puts now. My strategy has nothing to do with predicting what the market will be in months from now, I just react to the numbers that print.

If the resurgence of NVDA stock (+30%) during the past 9 weeks is the poster child for the entire market, then we should pay close attention to any weakness from yesterday's new ATH at 243.37 to determine if it represents a minor pullback within a larger, developing, incomplete advance, or something more damaging to both the stock and the overall market...

My pattern work argues that NVDA weakness must be contained above 230 on a closing basis to avert inflicting potential significant technical damage to the post-August uptrend setup.

Barring a closing break below 230, NVDA's 9-week advance has unfinished business on the upside that points to 255-260 next.

The success of the 10-year Note Auction, coupled with short covering in advance of the President's presser, helped SPX recover to an intraday high at 7804.32, which, as we see on my attached 2-hour chart, is 1.11 points from eliminating the Island Reversal setup we have been discussing today.

The fact that there are 1.11 points of "water" in the moat around the Island Reversal is a fact, but it may be splitting hairs in any discussion of whether the Island Top pattern remains viable. 

To my mind, until all the water around the moat disappears, an island exists. 

That said, there is another issue with today's opening down-gap: This AM's down-gap from yesterday's close at 7818.98 remains UNFILLED as we speak, even though the Island Reversal setup has been nearly eliminated.

Let's see how the final two hours shake out.

Will the bulls drain the moat at 7805.96 and continue higher to fill the down-gap from yesterday's close at 7818.98?  

Or will SPX roll over into a PM selloff, leaving us wondering if the Island Reversal Top Candle remains viable?  Last in SPX as of this writing is 7800.29... 

and is being left as a top abandoned baby as of 10:22 AM, 10/7/26

Link to chart in comments.

I analysed 17,734 weekly bullish engulfing patterns across 480 current S&P 500 companies from 2007–2026, looking at average price behaviour in the 12 weeks before and after each signal.

A weekly engulfing move requires significant capital and is often associated with institutional participation. The results slightly diverge from classic textbook interpretations and show clear differences depending on the broader trend.

In an uptrend, the pattern tends to act as a continuation signal. Price often pulls back modestly into the pattern while the longer-term average trend remains upward. After the engulfing candle, price typically resumes alignment with the prevailing uptrend.

In a downtrend, the pattern more often shows early signs of a potential reversal. Price behaviour after the signal tends to diverge from the prior downtrend rather than simply continuing lower.

Overall, the data suggests these weekly signals may be more useful for intermediate- to longer-term positioning than for short-term trading.

Full write-up with charts and methodology:

https://guanalyser.com/test-bench/bullish-engulfing/

Would be interested to hear if others have tested similar patterns (or different timeframes) and what you found. Pattern detection is built into the tool if anyone wants to run their own tests.

Link to chart in comments.

HALO Halozyme Therapeutics stock watch, pullback to 109.19 triple support with bullish indicators.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 118.57   Profit: 8.1%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 107.11
• Loss: 2.4%   P/L ratio: 3.4 : 1 - Good
• Target 2: 121.55   Profit: 10.8%   P/L ratio: 4.5 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern with Strong 3 day accumulation.
• [Timing] Good bullish 1 day moneyflow
• [Timing] Good long trade quality

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Uptrend turned sideways, may continue or pullback.