DISCLAIMER: Nobody has a clue what they are doing with market analysis. That means nobody, fundamental analysis, technical or macro. There are endless examples of big famous traders that have made massive amateur mistakes with billions of dollars. From big hedge funds, investment banks, central banks. Don't follow anybody too closely. Learn what is helpful to you. An old famous trader Jesse Livermore went bankrupt 3 times. But he had some really good lessons and advice.
'Take that which serves you and leave that which does not.'
Other Youtube (I don't know who's running this channel)
https://www.youtube.com/@RichardWyckoffTradingMethods Start at the bottom. Important note; the composite operator is not one man, it is a term that refers to all the smart money in the market. He should explain that eventually but it may not be clear at the start.
This topic is a work in progress. Check in from time to time. You can ask questions in the comments but it's unlikely many people will see them. Start a new topic in the main sub.
Today, I'd like to touch upon a crucial topic that's been on my radar and should be on yours too - the surge of paid trading services.
In recent times, one can notice an apparent uptick in the number of services charging money for trading advice, signals, algorithmic trading systems, etc. These might appear enticing, especially to our novice traders who are trying to grasp the complexities of the market and its patterns quickly. However, it's essential to approach these services with caution.
Let's use logic: would a trader with a foolproof trading strategy that guarantees major meals, go around selling their 'secret sauce'? Unlikely. Such a trader would be busy profiting from their strategy.
Those genuinely successful in this field and genuinely wishing to help, invariably do so for free. They share their wisdom in open forums, write blogs, tutorials and share valuable advice publicly with those willing to learn. Such individuals get gratification from aiding others navigate the labyrinth of trading markets.
This is not to claim that every paid service is a scam. However, it's prudent to question what they can offer that cannot be found with some thorough research, reading, and practice. Blindly throwing money at a service can result in financial strain without any concrete gains in your trading skills or strategies. Before you part with your hard-earned money for trading advice, remember - there's a wealth of knowledge out there that doesn't require you to spend a dime. So, given these circumstances, let's keep our lights on these traps and continue educating each other for free.
As you browse, please report all comments and posts that are violating our rules of no advertising or promoting of any service that has a fee associated in any capacity.
Trade wisely, and remember - the best investment you can make is in your education.
SNDK closed yesterday at $1,371.12, up 5.53% after bouncing off the $1,357 low. Volume was around 8.5M – solid, but not a conviction-level breakout.
Right now, though, overnight is trading around $1,343, down about 2%. So that post-close momentum is already getting tested.
Here's the GEX setup:
Put Wall $1,350, Call Wall $1,500, gamma flip $1,340. Yesterday's close was sitting safely above the wall, but at $1,343 overnight, we've slipped just below the Put Wall and we're basically sitting on the gamma flip. That shifts the setup from positive to neutral/negative gamma real quick.
Technically, it's still a messy base. RSI is in the high 30s – off the absolute bottom but not showing strong momentum. MACD is negative.
The levels that matter: We need to reclaim $1,357-1,360 just to stabilize. A real break above $1,400-1,407 is still the key to confirming buyers are actually back in control. If we lose this zone, the next real floor is closer to $1,290-1,300.
Fundamentally, the AI NAND story hasn't changed. Pricing is firm, contracts are there. But the stock is still digesting that massive run to $2,300+. Earnings are coming up at the end of the month, which could be the next real catalyst.
I'm not touching it down here. I want to see volume step in to reclaim $1,400 before I believe this is anything more than a dead-cat bounce. If it flushes back to $1,300, that's a different conversation.
ok so the 1999 vs now comparison keeps popping up everywhere and i genuinely can't decide where i land on it, so curious what people here think.
the surface thing is obvious right. late 90s ripped higher on internet hype, then gave most of it back. and the current S&P run has that same "one theme is dragging the whole market" feel, just AI instead of dot-coms now. look at how concentrated the index is and yeah, hard not to think about 1999 at least a little.
but here's the part the doom posts always skip, in 1999 half the leaders had literally no earnings. no revenue even. just a website and a pitch. the AI/chip names leading now are printing actual cash. like real, enormous profit. that's a genuinely different setup. a bubble where the leaders are wildly profitable behaves nothing like one where they're lighting VC money on fire.
so imo the real question isn't "does the chart look like 1999" charts always look like something. it's whether the earnings actually justify these prices, or whether people are paying 1999-type multiples for companies that just happen to be profitable this time.
anyway no idea, genuinely asking
is "but they have real earnings now" actually reassuring, or is that just the exact thing everyone says right before a top?
if you're trading indices rn, riding it, trimming, or sitting out til it's clearer?
and what would actually tell you it's rolling over vs just a normal pullback?
This is what a good bull market looks like. Do the stocks you own look like this? If you work hard you can find them. Or just read a little further 😂 Nothing wrong with the chart at this time.
The short term chart to keep things nice and tight. The wick on Oct15 got some stops.
Here's a whole list of them to sort through. All different industries.
KLRA IPO coming off it's all time low. It's wild biowreck shit. My favorite. Tightening range - triangle. Double bottom and a higher low. I think it's got a day or 2 before it breaks, maybe a little more. Up or down.
I've been actively screening Karur Vysya Bank (KARURVYSYA) for swing setup and wanted to share my technical observations to get the community's perspective. It's having a strong session today, currently trading around 374.20 (up 5.22% from the previous close of 355.65), after pushing to a day high of 376.25. Volume is already substantial at over 10.75 million shares.
In my recent charting, I'm closely watching how the price action interacts with the VWAP—which is currently sitting at 371.56—to gauge the immediate intraday trend. I'm also tracking the short-term EMAs to confirm momentum shifts, while keeping an eye on the RSI on the 5-minute and 15-minute timeframes to spot early divergences or overextended conditions before committing to an entry.
I'm currently mapping out my key support and resistance zones for the session, keeping today's open of 357 and low of 355.45 in mind as key reference points.
Is anyone else trading this counter intraday right now? What are your reads on the current volume profile? Are there any specific triggers or levels you are waiting for before taking position? Would love to hear your thoughts and see if your analysis aligns!
Based on my Elliott Wave analysis the NQ chart and its current structure is getting quite interesting.
My main count suggests that we're approaching the final stages of a larger Wave V. The purple substructure is also in its final Wave (5), while the red count shows a Wave (4) correction currently unfolding.
This correction appears to be developing as an ABC, and Wave C could be approaching its final stages.
One area I'm paying particular attention to is the 38.2–50% Fibonacci retracement zone between 27,801 and 26,874.
If the count plays out as expected, this could be where the correction finds support before one final move higher completes the larger Wave V.
Once the final wave is complete, I think we could see a much larger corrective phase on our larger cycle. So, rather than looking at this as just another dip to buy, I'm trying to understand whether this could be one of the last opportunities before the broader structure changes.
So overall I think there's gonna be a quite interesting time ahead of us
CRWV Update: So far, the "recovery" is anything but impressive after last week's debacle. At the very least, CRWV needs to claw its way to 78-82, but if not, a bout of disappointed long liquidation that presses the stock below 60, especially on a closing basis, will trigger lower targets.
Now, I only monitor around 250 tickers, so my universe is a smaller sample and generally need around 750-1000 bars of data history to generate the tiers.
The first one says be careful. When it starts doing that it can dump. Unless it's a strong market.
Look at a different chart to help decide. This one says it's sitting on important support. By two different measures. It seems like it's kind of important that it holds this level.
Higher highs and higher lows. Is a bull market. The current low hasn't been established yet. With this chart we are waiting to see what happens as well.
So you if you look at the one day interval chart of McDonalds. You can see they are over the bottom of the cup and handle chart, before that was followed by a delcine with Vs. Showing that it moved quickly. This is a good pattern and im in what do you guys think
Kind of got caught on my heels last week and yet I still expect some kind of reversal. I've been wrong last couple months so take with a grain of salt. Just seems like we're primed for a squeeze.
I think the KOSPI has been one of the most interesting markets to watch during the AI boom.
South Korea is heavily exposed to the semiconductor and memory cycle, making the KOSPI an interesting proxy for AI infrastructure demand. The rally since 2025 has been extraordinary, and we have seen the KOSPI outperform the SP500 since April 2025.
But I'm starting to see a potential change in momentum.
On the monthly chart, the KOSPI has experienced a massive acceleration, followed by a sharp rejection from its highs. More importantly, the KOSPI is now showing underperformance versus the S&P 500 for the first time since the April 2025, this is not bullish at all...
That combination makes me wonder whether we're entering a deeper correction rather than experiencing another short-term pullback.
My thesis:
The KOSPI has been a major beneficiary of the AI investment cycle.
After such an aggressive rally, expectations may be getting stretched.
A loss of relative strength versus the S&P 500 could be an early warning that leadership is changing.
If the weakness continues, we could see substantially lower prices before the next sustainable leg higher.
Of course, one monthly candle and a relative-strength crossover aren't enough to confirm a reversal. I'd want to see follow-through in the coming months.
What do you think? Is this just a correction within the AI bull market, or could the KOSPI be signaling a broader slowdown in the AI trade?
The main part of my post is this section of the chart. The graph at the bottom.
Full chart
Zoomed in. There are 2 ways the price can revert, reversion to the mean. The price can go up to the 10 dma (day moving average). Or the price can stay flat and the 10 dma keeps dropping to the lower price. The 10 dma is currently dropping at a sharp angle it would only take a few days to get down to the price.
The Fear and Greed index https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed calculation has been adjusted in the last couple years to make it look worse than it is. The S&P was near an all time high in Sept and the F&G was reading 30? Come on. It does have some broad market components which have been weak so it's not completely false. But the sharp changes still show up. It's not exhausted yet but it's close.
Came across this video earlier and wanted to see what everyone here thinks.
Apparently there's this pattern where markets take a pretty nasty hit around US midterm elections.
2018 was rough. 2022 was worse for a lot of people.
And now I'm seeing people throw around predictions of a 30%+ crash in 2026 like it's already decided.
Idk man.
I get that history matters, but if predicting crashes was as easy as looking at what happened every four years, wouldn't everyone be rich by now?
The part that actually concerns me isn't even the election itself. It's how quickly things can go sideways when everyone's convinced the market is going in one direction.
Especially if you're trading NQ or ES. One bad session where you get stubborn and keep adding to a losing position can do some serious damage.
I've seen enough people get absolutely wrecked trying to call tops.
But I also don't think ignoring the possibility of a big correction makes much sense.
So I'm kinda torn on this one.
Are any of you actually adjusting your positions because of the midterms? Or is this just another one of those scary charts that goes viral every few months?
Also curious if anyone here traded through 2018 or 2022. Did you actually see those drops coming, or did they catch you off guard?
The purple line. I have no idea how to make a screener for that. I tried and I either end up getting a really long delay and miss it. Or it's too tight and get overwhelmed with false signals.
My screener found this one STZ. A trendline won't have worked because the trendline is too messy.
For the time frame shown on my chart. Maybe you have a different time frame.
It keeps breaking support levels. These are the 2 biggest ones from the low. The current level matches the 145 horizontal support, which is a big one for that way of doing it. There are a few more recent ones above but they are already broken. If it holds here it's got a chance. If it breaks down more it's getting bad.
XOM (ExxonMobil) yesterday hit a new ATH at 178.69, which satisfied the lower boundary of my outlier target zone of 178 to 182.
I have raised the upper boundary of the target zone to 186 based on my interpretation of the current upleg from the 9/22/26 pivot low at 155.85.
Bottom Line Technically: As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 168 on an intraday basis, XOM still points higher into the 178 to 186 target zone, from where I am expecting a price peak and rollover into a meaningful correction.
My suspicion is that the "risk" from Crude Oil is a run to $110-$125, which should be bullish for the Energy names, but could begin the process of (gasoline) demand destruction that will not be supportive of revenues for the likes of XOM.
In other words, if the war ENDS, and oil implodes, XOM initially will take hit, while on the other hand, if all-out war resumes, triggering a geopolitical spike in Oil prices well beyond $100/bbl, XOM could suffer as well, from demand destruction and a potential implosion in economic activity.
This is me thinking out loud about how to reconcile the backstory and the technical setup of the post-Pandemic bull phase in XOM from a low at 30.11 to a measured longer-term Swing Target window of 178-186.
I've been obsessed with understanding how one could visualize price structure in a way that would describe it perfectly (I'm very risk averse) and would make me lots of money... I had no life for the past 5 years... I was naïve but this naivety has led me to where I am now. Money is nice but solving the puzzle became a priority. Obsession can change who you are so instead of being a trader, I became a researcher. It was never enough, I HAD to understand WHY something happened, why did the price move beyond a level and still continued the move? Why does something happen when a candle is bullish and doesn't when it's bearish in the same context? Why does the move sometimes test the high of a range and sometimes goes just above range's low? What is mean reversion at the fundamental level? You don't need to understand why something has happened to make money but I wanted it.
I still remember opening 'Candlestick charting for dummies' for the first time, not knowing why exactly some candles were red while the move was going up... Then it started.. Wyckoff, pitchforks, delta neutral, liquidations, harmonics and what not.
But let me explain and show you what I mean by 3d space and surface because this "space" is not really there, it's a relationship between price and time that can be visualized as a 3d space. It has to do with fractal nature of the price chart and big numbers I guess, I believe that everything in nature is cyclical, follows Fibonacci and blah blah blah.. And the chart is even more so. Things created first are more important (time), things created on higher fractal are more important (price). But to "CREATE" something you need some trigger (confirmation) because the price can also ALMOST create something and right at the last moment fail to do so. So that point of confirmation is critical. This is where it gets interesting because at this point, a range comes into existence.
Next thing to understand is that there is always a relationship between three time frames, fractals, holy trinity or whatever you want to call it. It's just that something is always relative to something else and needs context to exist and be relevant.
Let me come back to "Things created first are more important (time), things created on higher fractal are more important (price)." A 240m will have an 60m and a 15m fractal to the upside and the downside (240 here is not one candle, it's a 240m range). But this is also true for any relationship 13-55-233 or 610-144-34 or 55-233-987.
So if I know the higher range is about to confirm at the opening of next visible candle on the chart (green dot on base of the range), I can already calculate which lower fractal that was activated first will be the up (green) fractal and which will be down fractal. In this case the boundary will be 21 to 377, price hitting 21 is the same as it hitting a 377. A lower data point 21 connected to 377 is created later in time -> this will be the "surface" I'm talking about.
2d range
So for the case of excursion (green), I know the surfaces could be visualized as in the following image. These 2d "areas" can be viewed as exact price levels in a 3d space. This is why the colour of the candle that touches this surface is important. Only bearish candles test levels that need to hold the move up.
*with green vertical surface being the activation time of bigger range
In the same way following the exact same rules a lower range can be defined with it's own set of connected fractals.
Orange circle is the time of confirmation. Green circle is a 5m level test.
->89->21>5m So the price tested a 5m level by a 89m candle. This means we're testing surface -> A new high is expected.
Important thing here is to understand orange circle means 377 range just got confirmed which means that if the move is to continue up, a lower fractal needs to hold (89 holding 377) , means that if a 5 of the 89m is hit -> a lower fractal to 377 is holding.
This is what a TREND is. A confirmed lower structure, existing within a confirmed higher one.
Price going for child fractal after parent confirmation.
Other levels exist as the combination INSIDE the just confirmed higher range.
When a 89m trend breaks (red cross at trend), target automatically becomes 377 fractal (green checkmarks + the 377 surface which is now to early to define as a 377 test because no 377 candle has developed yet).
Price hitting 89m range for the second time instead of going to 377
Once the surface is hit, the expected points for making or breaking the move come into place. And these are exact. Every level exists as a potential until future structure becomes visible so it is IMPOSSIBLE to trade without risk, it is possible though to calculate where the exact level exists that will confirm a hypothesis about future price move and take a marginal risk.
Even though not the low of the range is hit, the surface is (377 testing and breaking 21)
What I wanted to say is that ranges exist as a higher dimension to what is visible to the naked eye (z axis if you will) and this is why BOS (in its most simple understanding) works sometimes and sometimes it doesn't. Inducements only work sometimes and a smart money trap is not a trap before a range is confirmed, it's range expansion. Levels by nature can only exist as potential and you need to take risk. Mean reversion on one TF is a confirmation of a range on a higher one. Understanding the context of current price behavior is extremely hard (at least for me) and it can only be understood in relationship to other confirmed structures.
Everything is interconnected and life is beautiful, so is chart. Be genuinely obsessed with something hard and you will make it. Let's all make money now regardless the strategy you're trading. I might do another one on ind/smt next
