r/technicalanalysis • u/Different_Band_5462 • 3d ago
Next Target for XOM
XOM (ExxonMobil) yesterday hit a new ATH at 178.69, which satisfied the lower boundary of my outlier target zone of 178 to 182.
I have raised the upper boundary of the target zone to 186 based on my interpretation of the current upleg from the 9/22/26 pivot low at 155.85.
Bottom Line Technically: As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 168 on an intraday basis, XOM still points higher into the 178 to 186 target zone, from where I am expecting a price peak and rollover into a meaningful correction.
My suspicion is that the "risk" from Crude Oil is a run to $110-$125, which should be bullish for the Energy names, but could begin the process of (gasoline) demand destruction that will not be supportive of revenues for the likes of XOM.
In other words, if the war ENDS, and oil implodes, XOM initially will take hit, while on the other hand, if all-out war resumes, triggering a geopolitical spike in Oil prices well beyond $100/bbl, XOM could suffer as well, from demand destruction and a potential implosion in economic activity.
This is me thinking out loud about how to reconcile the backstory and the technical setup of the post-Pandemic bull phase in XOM from a low at 30.11 to a measured longer-term Swing Target window of 178-186.
