This is a short term analysis. For today and a few days out.

With the little graph at the bottom of the chart it's very rare for it to get down lower than -4%. Which is where it's set to open this morning.

The -8% & -10% is extreme bear market conditions. This isn't an extreme bear market. It could turn into one but it's not there yet.

Here's the same chart zoomed in a little. The average rate it is dropping is fairly flat as of today. That can quickly change.

The point is a quick return to the green line, 10 day moving average, is a very common thing to happen. The market can do whatever it wants but the averages are there for a reason.

The reason I say it's not a full bear is XLV wouldn't be up 2.5% yesterday trying to put in new highs if it was. Opposite of QQQ. It's still rotation.

Another thing is the VIX isn't spiking. 'Nothing bad happens when the VIX is below 20'. VIX is the S&P not QQQ. If it starts jumping up then it's a different story.

What causes charts like this? I've only seen this about 3-4 times since I started trading last November, but it seems to me that after it passes, the stock never seems to really recover totally normal behavior. ONDS did this for a long time. Now it doesn't but it still doesn't have the volatility that it used to have.

The large numbers on both the Bid and Ask sides of this without any movement one way or the other makes me think this is some kind of manipulation. ChatGPT says, "Not necessarily." But it also doesn't give me any reasonable-sounding explanation for it.

I've only been trading since November 2025, so I'm well aware I have a lot to learn. Until the past month, I was doing great and making good money. Now I'm kind of stalled and I keep running into things like this that get me curious about what I don't understand.

Thanks in advance to any kind person who can take the time to educate me.

Each panel is the chart read only up to the reminder date: run cracking (first close under the 10-day after the peak), breakout failed (closed back under a resistance band), or stretched then cracked. The shaded part is what came after.

PPI comes in hotter than expected! But 10-year YIELD, after knee-jerking to 5.10% from 5.08%, is now LOWER, at 5.06%... ignoring the relatively hot PPI data, and instead, apparently still fixating on the impact of the dress-down of the AI boom.

This AM's down-gap open broke my nearest-term support level, and triggered a downside projection to 5.00%-4.93%.

I have completed B.E CSE this year, from my second year onwards I started studying technical analysis. I love to trade and invest. Right now, after completing my degree, I've done two NISM certifications 8 and 15. Now I'm working as a Junior research analyst under a SEBI registered investment advisory firm. I am learning fundamental analysis and I have grasped the core logic of equity research. I don't want to work in research in the future .I'm very much interested in technical analysis. I'm planning on completing MBA distance mode and CMT all three levels. I believe that job in technical analysis is peaceful for me than in fundamental analysis. How is the job market for CMT in india and abroad? I don't want to pursue CFA. Can anyone share ur experience.

How do you filter intraday relative strength when tech constituents are moving in opposite directions?

We tracked sector constituent deviations on an intraday basis using our pricing engine to isolate names in the top third of relative performance during active tech sessions.

Downside limit: rapid rank changes during regime shifts can trigger false persistence signals without a minimum consolidation window.

How do you account for constituent rotation when filtering sector leaders?

Disclosure: this account is run by happydonkey.ai.

Not investment advice.

BTC slid from $84k down toward $81k and ETH's off 2% near $2,370. but the drop itself isn't the interesting bit, it's what it dropped with. this wasn't some crypto-specific thing, no hack or whatever. a hot inflation print spooked risk traders and literally everything sold off together. Nasdaq -2%, S&P down 1%, VIX up. crypto just went along for the ride.

and that's kind of the whole point right? everyone loves the "digital gold / uncorrelated" line until there's an actual risk-off day, and then BTC and ETH trade basically like leveraged tech. same headline, same direction, same move. when inflation fear hits, crypto isn't the hedge, it's one of the first things people dump.

one weird thing though: the dollar was actually down today (DXY -0.56%), which doesn't really fit the usual "hot inflation = strong dollar = risk sells off" story. so this feels more like broad risk-off + positioning than a clean rate-fear move. also saw whales are shorting like $1.45B into it, which can just make the slide worse once it gets going.

anyway curious how the crypto people here see it

does BTC moving in lockstep with the Nasdaq change how you treat it, or is it still a long-term hold that's just noisy short term?

when stocks and crypto dump on the same catalyst, you trading them as one thing or keeping them separate?

and the whales shorting into it, you fading that or respecting it?

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Core PPI m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%

8:30 AM | Core Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 1.4%

8:30 AM | PPI m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.4%

8:30 AM | Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.2%

8:30 AM | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Forecast: 28.2 | Previous: 37.8

8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 199K | Previous: 197K

11:30 PM | Fed Speaker: Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #PPI #RetailSales #UnemploymentClaims #SPY #SPX

JPM Update: This is what we discussed in our trading room just after yesterday's Earnings Report:

"The initial knee-jerk reaction to the news was a down-spike in the stock to 320.93 from Monday's close at 334.30 (-4%), however, thereafter, JPM whipped around to the upside and then spiked from 320.93 to 340.80 in a matter of minutes (7:03 to 7:14 AM ET!)... Both the April 2025 up trendline in the vicinity of 325.20 and the up-sloping 200 DMA at 222.18 as of last evening's close likely influenced the ricochet reversal off the 220 area in pre-market trading.  The day is very young yet, so let's see what comes from the 8:30 AM ET JPM Conference Call, and how the stock trades throughout today's session. Technically, the 220 support area remains consequential, and beyond that, a close above the intersection of the April 2025 up trendline in the vicinity of 325.20 will be considered a positive intraday reaction to a two-way price reaction to Earnings. From my intermediate-term work, JPM needs to climb and close above 342.60 to regain positive technical traction. Otherwise, the toppy distribution pattern carved out since early July will remain intact... Last is 338.25 off a pre-market, post-Earnings downspike to 320.93..."

Fast-forward to this AM, we see on my attached 4-Hour Chart that yesterday's recovery rally hit a ceiling at 344.36, which reversed the stock toward the 330 area where it is trading now, and also reinforced my intermediate-term closing price line-in-the-sand level of 342.60 as an important inflection area.

As long as JPM remains below 342.60 on a closing basis, it remains vulnerable to downside continuation that tests and violates yesterday's post-Earnings spike low at 320.93 en route to 290-300.

Kinda seems like a rounded bottom forming in the 10 year treasury futures.

Would probably need a break over 105 to confirm.

What do y’all think?

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Core CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
8:30 AM | Core CPI y/y | Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.4%
8:30 AM | CPI m/m | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.4%
8:30 AM | CPI y/y | Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.4%

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #CPI #Inflation

Ethereum is currently forming a potential 4-hour double bottom, and both RSI and Stochastic are showing clean bullish divergences.

Selling momentum looks like it's cooling off at support, but I’m keeping my eye on a break above the neckline for confirmation.

Anyone else looking at this setup right now?

Last Tuesday's (Oct 6th) Island Reversal remains intact as the QQQ presses lower into the vicinity of its sharply up-sloping 20 DMA, now at 241.27.

Today's price action is dancing on and around the 20 DMA, which, if violated on a CLOSING BASIS, will be a negative technical "event" that, when coupled with the Island Reversal, paints a compellingly negative setup for QQQ near term that points to 720-723 next.

Today's action in QQQ represents a significant battle between the Bulls and the Bears for more than near-term directional control.

XLF ticked it's spot right where it was suppose to.

30 minute chart

It reacted right on the mark. It stopped right at resistance yesterday then had the odd candle this morning. It doesn't tell us what it is going to do next. It's deciding what it wants to do. It looks like a rejection candle but it could go either way. Wait for it.

5.40% for reversal.

Today's up-move is the 4th consecutive day of relative strength after META pressed from its Sep 25th high at 780.93 to key near-term support at 710-715. Today's surge to 770 positions META at the upper boundary of the post-9/25 range of 770-780, which my pattern work argues will keep a lid on upside continuation for a while longer.

That said, as long as 770 contains any forthcoming acute weakness, the 770 to 790 range should be seen as a bullish high-level digestion period atop the advance from the 518.30 low (7/29/26) that, when complete, will thrust META to marginal new ATHs projected into the 800-820 target zone.

SPCX closed Tuesday at $163.42, up 0.52%. Bounced off a low of $160.85, volume was 67M – quieter than usual. Pre-market is basically flat around $163.36.

Here's the GEX setup:

Put Wall $160, Call Wall $170, gamma flip around $156.57. Tuesday's close at $163.42 is sitting above the gamma flip and above the Put Wall, below the Call Wall – positive gamma, with $170 as the overhead target.

Technically, we're above the middle Bollinger band ($155.17) and approaching the upper band ($171.69). RSI in the mid 50s. MACD positive but flattening.

The bigger backdrop is the spectrum move. SpaceX agreed to pick up up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz low-band spectrum from Grain Management in a deal reported around $8 billion. Low-band is useful for coverage and building penetration, and it gives Starlink Mobile a clearer path toward acting like an actual wireless competitor rather than pure satellite broadband. Carriers took a hit on the news.

That said, turning this into real scaled competition against T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T is still years of build-out, approvals, and capital away. The FCC satellite approvals help the long-term story, but they don't make the next few quarters instantly transformative.

Short-term, $160 is the line. It's held on multiple tests. Hold it with better volume and the path looks higher toward $167-170, then a retest of $175-176. Lose $160 with conviction and next meaningful levels sit around $155, then the mid-$150s.

Right now it feels like a waiting game for confirmation more than a high-conviction breakout.

DYOD🫡

I've been noticing a widening disconnect between the Nasdaq's strength and the weakness in small/mid-cap growth stocks, particularly AI infrastructure.

It looks like negative market breadth divergence, possibly combined with a flight to quality and tightening risk appetite.

I'm wondering whether this is just sector rotation or an early warning of broader market weakness.

Are you guys seeing the same thing? What indicators are you watching to distinguish the two?

Day-trade levels for October 13th

SPY: sidelined, no day-trade levels today

ES: sidelined, no day-trade levels today

QQQ closed at 745.98 on 10/12
All listed levels: 741.44, 745.50, 747.67, 751.09, 753.60
Resistance above: 747.67, 751.09, 753.60
Support below: 745.50, 741.44
Nearest pivot: 745.50
Above 747.67 → 751.09 next
Lose 745.50 → 741.44 next

NQ closed at 30884.00 on 10/12
All listed levels: 30871.50, 30878.25, 30882.50, 30885.50, 30891.50, 30896.50, 30936.25, 30975.50
Resistance above: 30885.50, 30891.50, 30896.50, 30936.25, 30975.50
Support below: 30882.50, 30878.25, 30871.50
Nearest pivot: 30882.50
Above 30885.50 → 30891.50 next
Lose 30882.50 → 30878.25 next

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

6:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Index | Forecast: 98.1 | Previous: 98.7
8:15 AM | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Previous: 23.8K
10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales | Forecast: 3.95M | Previous: 3.98M
3:45 AM | Fed Speaker: Waller
1:00 PM | Fed Speaker: Barkin
4:00 PM | Fed Speaker: Collins

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #StockMarket #EconomicData

MKSI It started off good a couple weeks ago but lost it. In this market I keep them really tight. If the market was strong I might give them a little more wiggle room. But I probably wouldn't have to.

TJX That's what they are suppose to look like.

I don't own any of these. They are from my watchlist. I saw TJX 3 times at the buy point but I kept waiting for it to crash 😂 It's OK not to trade. It's not OK to take bad trades.

This isn't just 2 stocks. I have a long list of the MKSI failure over and over again.

Bank earnings releases this week are expected to show another round of double-digit percentage earnings growth. That said, investors will be focused on net interest margins, deposit costs, and charge-offs to gauge the health of the economy, and on whether higher rates are starting to squeeze funding costs.

Technically, my interpretation of the Big Picture JPM setup argues that the reaction to earnings will be positive initially, BUT not sustainable -- UNLESS JPM manages to break through consequential resistance lodged from 350 to 356.50. My preferred scenario points to a knee-jerk post-earnings bounce to 342-348 followed by a potentially significant downside reversal.

From a VERY BIG Picture perspective offered by my Weekly XLF setup, waning Weekly Momentum is bothersome and leads me to the conclusion that the XLF Sep-Oct 2026 10% decline from the new ATH at 58.60 to the 52.81 low (on Oct 1st) is the first shot over the bow of the financials, and represents initial weakness of a topping phase.