r/transgender • u/onnake • 8h ago
How public opinion on transgender bathroom access shifted between 2016 and 2022
“Public opinion in the United States has grown more conservative regarding restroom access for transgender individuals over the past several years, a shift the researchers link to changing beliefs about safety and discrimination. When people hold conflicting views about the rights and risks involved in this debate, they are now much more likely to side with restrictive policies than they were in the past. These shifts are detailed in a new study published [online: 24 Apr 2026] in Politics, Groups, and Identities.”
“Public restrooms have historically served as a political battleground regarding gender, space, and safety. As the study notes, the modern sex-segregated restroom emerged during the Industrial Revolution as women entered the paid workforce. At the time, separate facilities were framed as necessary safe spaces for women. Similar arguments about restroom safety appeared during the mid-twentieth century to police the behavior of gay men, and again in the 1970s by opponents of the Equal Rights Amendment.”
“The research team utilized data from two nationally representative online surveys. The first survey polled 1,291 adults in 2016, a year when national media coverage of bathroom legislation peaked. The second survey polled 1,618 adults in 2022, a period when media attention on this specific issue had cooled but conservative political focus on transgender policies remained high.”
“The researchers found that overall support for restrictive bathroom policies grew between the two survey periods. In 2016, about 54 percent of respondents supported laws restricting restroom access based on state identification. By 2022, support for these restrictions had risen to roughly 62 percent.”
“Because people do not always hold perfectly aligned political views, the research team looked closely at respondents who agreed with conflicting statements. A substantial portion of participants believed both that open restroom policies pose a security risk to women and that restrictive policies discriminate against transgender people. The way these conflicted individuals resolved their internal tension changed dramatically over the six-year gap.
“In 2016, conflicted respondents were highly likely to resolve their ambivalence in favor of transgender rights. A person who held both beliefs had about a 62 percent chance of opposing restrictive bathroom policies. They appeared to discount their own security concerns and elevate their concerns about discrimination when deciding on a final policy stance.
“By 2022, this pattern flipped entirely. Conflicted respondents became much more likely to support restrictive bathroom laws. A person holding those same competing beliefs in 2022 had only about a 29 percent chance of opposing bathroom restrictions. They began weighing the perceived security risks much more heavily than their concerns about discrimination.”