r/worldnews • u/Raj_Valiant3011 • 11d ago

Russia/Ukraine Zelenskiy: "There is updated intelligence indicating that Russia is ​preparing a massive attack on Ukraine"

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-intelligence-shows-russia-is-preparing-massive-attack-2026-10-06/
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u/ChronoLegion2 11d ago

Let’s not forget that Poland faced a two-front invasion: Germans on one side and Soviets on the other.

The war in Ukraine isn’t over yet either. At this point we don’t know which side will collapse first. The only way to prevent Ukraine from being that side is to continue providing them aid

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u/staphylococcass 10d ago

Ukraine is a two front invasion too. Putin from the east and BlackRock from the west.

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u/bse50 10d ago

Which is exactly why nobody truly wants this war to stop. There's still a lot of money to be made and the weaker Ukraine is left, the harsher the demands and conditions for its reconstruction can be.
Financing wars was a nice way to turn a profit at least as early as the late middle ages / early renaissance... people hardly ever change.

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u/ChronoLegion2 10d ago

How do you picture the end to the war? Neither side’s demands are compatible. Russia won’t budge on wanting to legally take those regions and to force Ukraine to be a puppet state. Ukraine wants to restore its rightful territory and to make its own decisions regardless of what Russia thinks

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u/Avitar_X 10d ago

I think a likely outcome is that Russia fatigues of the war and agrees to a cease fire on whatever the borders are at that time. Then eventually it ends up a border similar to north and south Korea or Taiwan and mainland china.

I suspect Ukraine would agree to this (as in not try to take back territory if Russia doesn't try to take more, but still maintaining that their proper borders are their proper borders).

At some point Ukraine may even cede the territory as a condition of joining NATO (I believe NATO requires border integrity to be allowed to join).

I don't see Russia or Ukraine ceding the land bridge, and I don't see Russia ceding Crimea as a permanent peace, but seems possible for a cease fire.

The other outcome I see is Russia successfully mobilizes and doubles their force size in Ukraine and slowly takes the fortress belt allowing them to take a HUGE chunk of Ukraine. Any agreement after that would be tenuous because Russia would be at a huge advantage if they restarted hostilities, I don't see that as a lasting cease fire (which is why it's not negotiable currently, both sides know that if Russia gets it for free, they will be ready to launch a much more successful attack shortly after).

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u/bse50 10d ago

I honestly don't know but if nobody intervenes either by stopping Russia or reigning Ukraine's demands in it will lead to many more conflicts over the next 50 odd years.

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u/ChronoLegion2 10d ago

All Ukraine wants is what any country would expect: its own territory restored and its sovereignty respected. Russia is the aggressor here, demanding stuff that doesn’t belong to it. Giving in to Russia’s demands would set a terrible precedent.

There’s also the caveat that legally ceding territory is unconstitutional without a nationwide referendum in Ukraine, and the vast majority of Ukrainians are firmly against it

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u/aw-fuck 9d ago

It's bigger than that.

Ukraine has a huge grain store in their most fortified area. That is what Russia is after. The right to that farm land & grain storage.

It supplies many countries with food and all the aid Ukraine receives goes towards defending it from Russia, because once Russia holds that large food source they get bargaining chips with bigger entities for other resources the way the US has done for a hundred or more years.

It's literally coming down to food & supply.

The reason Russia wants this so bad is so that they can establish trade relations over food supply, because when global warming hits, russia goes from an uncomfortable skating rink to a nice cozy dirt plot. They need to get ahead of that & establish themselves as a source of food before the world starts inventing other options, or else they will become exploited for it instead of prospering because of it.

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u/ChronoLegion2 9d ago

Russia has plenty of fertile soil of its own, those areas just aren’t as developed as Ukraine

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u/bse50 10d ago

The constitution means nothing when said territories are lost because of a military invasion, sadly.
I agree that Russia is the aggressor but morals and "rights" mean very little in the real world.

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u/ChronoLegion2 10d ago

If Russia is looking for legality, then constitution very much matters. Otherwise those territories will remain officially Ukrainian under long-term Russian occupation

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u/bse50 10d ago

Well, Russia may also counter-argue about some alleged violations of the Minks treaties by Ukraine...
Again, the constitution stating that a country cannot cede its territories doesn't cover post war negotiations, and invasions. International law is a much vaguer concept than people realize and i sadly say this while having law degrees in two different countries :/

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u/ChronoLegion2 10d ago

Wouldn’t any agreement to cede territory require Zelensky to first convince the population to vote for it?

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u/bse50 9d ago

In theory, yes. In practice you can only agree to cede territories you already own. That's why the constitution, despite its fiery wording, is pretty useless in this case.it's the same with the elections... Zelenskiy keeps postponing them using the war as an excuse, while purging people left and right from their posts...

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u/ChronoLegion2 9d ago

I still don’t see how they can legally cede territories that on paper belong to Ukraine. If that somehow works, there would always be the question of legality. A future leader would claim that Zelensky had no right to give up those territories as per the constitution.

How can they run elections when 20% of the country is in enemy hands? And how do you keep Russia from targeting polling stations? It’s not just an excuse. Those are real considerations

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u/bse50 9d ago

That's exactly the point I was trying to get. Territorial disputes, as regulated as they are, need to face the reality of who controls what sooner or later.
The constitution also doesn't take into account territorial integrity and risks for the population for a long overdue election because it deals mainly with peace-time affairs. Some constitutions make provisions for what should happen during times of war but even when they do, the provisions are generally fairly elastic, out of necessity.
Ultimately the law, any law, is only as strong as the capability a country has to enforce it. Ukraine is pretty powerless right now.
Is it right? absolutely not, but that's just the shitty way it is and the sooner they accept it, the better.

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u/Avitar_X 10d ago

Ukraine is demanding a full ceasefire on the current lines. That doesn't seem unreasonable.

Asking them to meet Russia's demands (ceding the fortress belt) would leave them completely unprotected especially if it included the demilitarization Russia is also demanding.

But even without the demilitarization demands, forfeiting the fortress belt for a cease fire is obviously untenable, since there would be no way for Ukraine to respond if it was violated.

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u/ChronoLegion2 8d ago

Exactly, a ceasefire in which Ukraine is left without the ability to defend itself will not lead to a lasting peace. A lasting peace is only possible if Russia isn’t able to resume the invasion wherever it pleases