r/MTU • u/Huskies_Sports_Stuff • 19h ago
#12 Michigan Tech Football (6-1, 3-0 GLIAC) Mid-Season Review: The Window is Open
Hello again Huskies! Sorry for the lack of posts over the past few weeks, I've been increasingly busy on weekends and didn't feel like it was worth posting game results a few days late once most people interested have likely already seen the result. To make up for it, I've made what I believe to be my longest post ever to discuss the recent happenings in MTU football. We're now through seven weeks of Division II college football, and I wanted to quickly go over what's been going on with Huskies and the wider postseason outlook. A similar post will likely come soon for hockey, but I'm admittedly less familiar with hockey at large so I'll want some time to work on that one. Stay tuned!
Recent Games
I made posts discussing the score and stats of the first two weeks of the season, where the Huskies defeated Bemidji State and Midwestern State to start the season 2-0 (you can read them on my profile!). The following week, the football team headed down to Emporia, Kansas to take on the Emporia State Hornets. That game didn't seem like it would be too special before the season began, but the Hornets got off to an exceptionally hot start, winning their first two games on the road including a 21-10 upset of then #10-ranked Pittsburgh State the week before the Huskies came to town. It became the first ranked vs. ranked matchup of the Huskies' season, and they weren't able to hold on, taking first loss of the year with a 20-34 final score. The Hornets were able to largely limit the Huskies passing attack, with Elliott Larner only having 75 passing yards by the end of the game. However, the Hornets have since remained undefeated and are currently sit as the #8 ranked team in the nation, so that week 3 loss with a long road trip in a hot playing environment looks quite a bit better in hindsight.
Bouncing back after the loss, MTU returned home to Kearly Stadium for their last scheduled non-conference game against Upper Iowa. Last season, the Peacocks won a stunner in Houghton to give the Huskies their first loss of the season, but this time around the Huskies were able to prevail, winning the game 33-32 in overtime, with Avery Kucharski's extra point making the difference after the Upper Iowa kicker had his blocked by John Hagelstein on the first drive in overtime. Michigan Tech only had 37 total passing yards in the game split between Larner and Alex Bueno, but a mammoth 236 total rushing yards allowed them to stay in the game and keep the Peacocks from winning the non-conference matchup in back-to-back seasons. This meant Michigan Tech was 3-1 in their non-conference games, heading into a bye week before they began GLIAC play.
Two weeks later, MTU football headed to Chicago to take on the 4-0 Roosevelt Lakers. Roosevelt only moved to Division II from the NAIA in 2024, so getting off to as hot of a start as they did (including a win against FCS team Chicago State) is a serious testament to their development as a program. However, they proved no match for the Huskies, as Alex Bueno led MTU to a 57-28 romp in his first significant appearance at quarterback this season in front of a crowd of over 10,000 fans. Bueno finished with 259 passing yards, 2 TD's, and an interception, while Jake Rueff had 109 yards and a touchdown out of the backfield. Elliott Larner also scored three touchdowns on 11 carries, while the defense held the Lakers to just 26 total rushing yards and got three total interceptions.
The Huskies came back home for their biggest game of the season so far: #6 Grand Valley State. Coming into the game, the GVSU Lakers (yes, there are multiple Lakers teams in the GLIAC. For basketball, there's actually 3 with LSSU) had beaten the Huskies every year since 2014, and they're a regular top ten team in the nation. This year felt like the first in a while where Tech had a good chance to take them down, and the game did not disappoint. Abram Larner took the opening kickoff well into Laker territory, and the found the endzone on a dime from Alex Bueno shortly after. The scoring didn't let up from either team, as the slugfest went into overtime with a 35-35 score. The Huskies defense was able to keep GVSU out of the endzone on their overtime drive, and a botched snap on their field goal attempt on 4th down led to the Huskies keeping them off the scoreboard entirely. Once the Huskies got the ball, Alex Bueno kept the ball in his own hands, breaking away on a keeper to the goal line then diving in to score the game-winning touchdown. Michigan Tech defeats Grand Valley State 41-35, easily the biggest win for Huskies football in a decade.
This past weekend, Northern Michigan came to town for the Miner's Cup game. Frankly, the Wildcats have been in the basement of DII football for a while now, snapping a 30-game losing streak near the end of last season. They were winless coming into the game, so the expectation was for the Huskies to thoroughly control the game. The Huskies won 56-33, securing their 16th consecutive Miner's Cup victory. The Huskies outscored the Wildcats 21-6 in the first quarter, and Northern was never able to get any closer than that margin for the remainder of the game. Bueno passed for 268 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while Elliott Larner had 93 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Abram Larner had what I believe to be the second-highest single-game receiving yards tally in MTU football history, finishing the game with 8 receptions for 236 YARDS and two touchdowns (record is Brain Janeshek with 247 in 2003).
With that, we're caught up to today! MTU is 6-1, ranked #12 nationally in the most recent AFCA DII poll. They are the second-highest ranked team with a loss, only trailing #11 Northwest Missouri State. If you'd like to see stats and discussion about the individual games, click here.
Standout Players
Starting on offense, it's clear that MTU has struck gold at the quarterback position. Elliott Larner shined in his two big games as a freshman last year, and he balled out as a dual-threat QB in his three starts to begin this season as Bueno was on the bench, likely due to an injury. Now that Bueno is back, he's been a fantastic passer and definitely still has scrambling ability, but Larner has mostly assumed the role as a running QB when the play is designed around it. I honestly thought that Alex could have lost his starting job to Elliott with how he was playing in the first few games, but now that number 15 is back on the field and completing just shy of 70% of his passes, it's clear the starting job is his. He told reporters after the GVSU game that he wanted the ball in his hands, and with his performance in recent weeks head coach Dan Mettlach would be hard pressed to take it away from him.
Regardless, Elliott Larner is still a key part of this offense. He leads the team in rushing with 614 yards and a whopping 14 rushing TDs. Senior running back Jake Rueff isn't far behind with 511 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry in what's been an excellent first half to his season. Samuel Delgado has also been productive out of the backfield with 138 yards in relief for Rueff, but with so much of the load coming from the quarterbacks in the rushing game he hasn't gotten the chance to see the field much this season.
Looking at the receiving core, it's becoming increasingly clear that Abram Larner, Elliott's brother, is already one of the best transfers in MTU football history. After committing to GVSU and redshirting his first year, he transferred up to Houghton and has been an absolute beast. He leads the team in receiving with 588 yards and 8 touchdowns. Nic Nora got off to an electric start with 224 yards in three games, but suffered an injury in the matchup against Emporia State and hasn't been an active part of the offense since. Bryce Kurncz has been a solid second option in his absence, racking up 135 yards and two touchdowns over his five games played. While we don't have details of Nora's injury, if he comes back in good shape at some point this season, this offense will be the best the Huskies have had since at least when Dan Mettlach was the quarterback of the team back in 2004, maybe ever.
Shifting over to the defensive side, senior linebacker Chase Koch is having another great season. He leads the team in tackles with 76, while also racking up 2 interceptions, a sack, 5 TFLs, a forced fumble, and a blocked field goal. Joey Donahue leads the team in sacks with 2.0, but there are ten different players on the MTU defense credited with at least one. Donahue also has an interception, joining 7 other players (including Koch) with at least one. Other standout players in the front seven include sophomore linebacker Mahdi Sabbagh with 50 tackles, Jackson Zachary, Nolan Schopp, Joe Marano and Pierce Miller. While the counting stats aren't particularly impressive for any individuals besides Koch, as a unit they've done a fantastic job of stifling opponent's rushing attacks, especially up the middle of the field, and have done well pressuring the quarterback and forcing tough throws, leading to the nine total interceptions the team has caught so far this year.
In the defensive backfield, Dakota Blackwell has largely been the standout player with 40 tackles, an interception, a forced fumble, and two pass breakups. Not appearing on the stat sheet, however, is his big hit potential, something we've gotten to see more of in the last few weeks, and always a thought in the head of whoever he's guarding in coverage. Jaiden Bolden, Terrence Martin, and Jamison Stamps have been the other players getting most of the snaps as corners and safeties.
I noted in my preseason preview that the defense was the unit to keep an eye on, and I would say they have largely surpassed my expectations. I would like to see the DBs playing a little bit tighter in coverage to reduce the amount of completions other teams are finding around 10 yards downfield, but it seems like the defense has largely been built around preventing the deep ball and buying the front seven time to wreak havoc in the backfield, which has largely been the case so far. However, there are two big tests left on the regular season schedule for Michigan Tech, and we'll have to see if this trend holds.
On special teams, kicker Avery Kucharski is 5/7 on field goals, including a 53-yarder against Midwestern State that broke the MTU field goal distance record. Kucharski and Ivan Ermlich have split punting duties this season, averaging 40.5 and 37.1 yards per punt respectively. Return duties have mostly been split between Abram Larner and Jaxon Lippert, both of which are averaging about 24.5 yards on kick returns. Lippert is the usual punt returner, but Larner's lone punt return was a 74-yard touchdown against GVSU, where he was hidden on the near sideline while Lippert drew the return team's attention to the other side of the field.
Looking Ahead
Michigan Tech has four games left this season, on the road for the next two weeks with the final two games back in Houghton. The table below shows the rest of the regular season schedule, and will be updated with ranks and game results as the season continues.
| Opponent (ranks as of 10/19) | Location | Date/Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 Ferris State | Big Rapids, MI | 10/24, 1pm |
| Saginaw Valley State | Saginaw, MI | 10/31, 1pm |
| #9 Davenport | Houghton, MI | 11/7, noon |
| Wayne State | Houghton, MI | 11/14, noon |
The two standout games on the schedule are clearly this week against Ferris State and the penultimate game against Davenport. Ferris State is the consensus #1 team in the country in the AFCA poll, they have been all season long, and they are the clear favorites to three-peat as national champions. If the Huskies to manage to snap their 37-game winning streak (the third-longest in Division II history), it would be more than a big win, it would be national news, and would make it a near-guarantee MTU makes the Division II playoffs. Frankly, I'm convinced the Bulldogs could jump clean over the FCS into FBS and be just fine in the MAC or Conference USA. Davenport is having a breakout year similar to Michigan Tech, but they have a clear standout player in running back Cephus Harris, who currently leads all of Division II with a staggering 1387 rushing yards in just seven games. He'll be extremely difficult to contain in the backfield, but compared to having to shut down a very versatile offense and overcoming the defensive juggernaut that is Ferris State, it definitely feels like the easier of the two games to win.
Playoff Picture
In Division II, 32 teams qualify for the national playoffs each season. The field is split into four super regions, each of which has four conferences. The champion of each conference gets an automatic bid, while the other four slots in each super region are at-large bids, given to the four non-champion teams with the highest NCAA National Power Index (NPI) ranking at the end of the season. The GLIAC (and therefore Michigan Tech) is in Super Region 3, with the Great Midwest Athletic Confernece (G-MAC), Great Lakes Valley Conference (GLVC), and Northern Sun Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (NSIC). This means MTU can either qualify as the GLIAC champion or by being one of the 4 "best of the rest" teams from those four conferences. Let's take a look at how either of these scenarios could happen.
GLIAC Champion: When I made this writeup last season, I basically dismissed the possibility of the Huskies getting this done. However, being back at 5-1 and already having the win against Grand Valley State under their belts means they have a real chance as it stands right now. Currently, the Huskies are tied with Ferris State and Davenport at 3-0 in-conference. There is no conference championship game or playoff structure, so whoever has the best conference record is the champion. I think it's fair to say that Ferris State is expected to run the table, but if the Huskies or Panthers can manage to beat them, it opens up quite a few scenarios. I think there are two realistic paths to Michigan Tech winning the GLIAC outright:
- The Huskies win out, finishing 7-0 in-conference.
- MTU beats FSU and DU, but loses to either SVSU or Wayne State, and whoever wins FSU vs. DU loses one additional game (for example, Davenport beats Ferris State, loses to Grand Valley State). Tech and the winner of Ferris vs. Davenport would then both have 6-1 records, but Tech would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Note: There is also a "nuclear option" here: MTU, FSU, and DU tie for first. Say Tech beats Ferris State, Davenport beats Tech, and Ferris State beats Davenport. If all three win their other two games, they all finish at 6-1 in-conference. The GLIAC rules say that 3-team ties are resolved by their records against the 4th place team, then 5th, and so on, but if all three win against every other team then the tie would not be broken. As far as I can tell, the GLIAC has no further rules for resolving ties between three or more teams, so I assume the conference would name them all co-champion, but who gets the automatic tournament bid?
If the Huskies can't find a route to win the GLIAC: they'll need to hope they can be one of the top four remaining teams in Super Region 3 by NPI rankings.
At-Large Bid via NPI: Last season, the at-large bids to the DII football tournament were decided by a voting committee of athletic program administrators and head coaches, who picked the four most deserving non-champion teams in each conference to make the playoffs in each super region. Now, the selection of teams is determined using a version of the NCAA National Power Index, or NPI. This was used in Division III last season, but had different weights than the formula being used at the DII level. To be honest, the intricacies of how a team's score is calculated are too much to deal with in an already extremely long post, so if you're interested in digging into the methodology behind how the score is calculated I recommend this article by sports journalist Cory Hogue on his Substack that explain a bit more about how it works without diving too much into the number-crunching. In essence, 25% of a team's score is based purely on their winning percentage, while the remaining 75% is based on their strength of schedule. The only factor in earning points is if you win or lose a game; margin of victory does not help or hurt your score.
Simply put, the NPI scoring is going to do Tech a HUGE favor this season. In recent years, while GVSU and FSU have been great, the rest of the GLIAC largely hasn't kept up. However, in non-conference play this season, 4 GLIAC teams went undefeated (FSU, GVSU, Davenport, Roosevelt), Tech went 3-1, and Saginaw Valley State went 2-2. Basically, this means most of the GLIAC is an absolute gold mine for NPI strength of schedule points, so the formula will give Tech a lot of credit for playing in an extremely strong conference this year. Currently, these are the top ten teams in Super Region 3 by NPI:
| School | Conference | NPI | National Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwood | G-MAC | 63.760 | 3 |
| Ferris State | GLIAC | 63.531 | 5 |
| Minnesota State | NSIC | 61.783 | 7 |
| Davenport | GLIAC | 59.733 | 10 |
| Michigan Tech | GLIAC | 59.614 | 11 |
| Findlay | G-MAC | 57.768 | 19 |
| Minnesota Duluth | NSIC | 56.949 | 23 |
| Augustana | NSIC | 55.117 | 33 |
| MSU Moorhead | NSIC | 53.788 | 41 |
| Tiffin | G-MAC | 53.261 | 43 |
As things currently stand, if we assume Northwood, Minnesota State, and Ferris State hold on to win their respective conferences, MTU is second in line for an at-large bid, trailing only Davenport. This list is definitely going to get shaken up in the last few weeks of the season as the top teams in each of the conferences start playing each other a bit more, but the big news from my perspective is that no teams in the GLVC are really in the conversation at all for an at-large bid right now. Currently, the top GLVC team by NPI is William Jewel, but they're all the way down at 49.325, ranked 76th nationally. In fact, no team in the GLVC is even receiving votes in the most recent AFCA poll. This means it's very likely that there will be no at-large bid for a GLVC team, so a team in third place in one of the other three conferences would get that spot instead. Since the GLIAC was the strongest of the bunch in non-conference play, for the moment this looks like it buys the Huskies some real breathing room.
I don't have the patience to sit here and do the math by hand, and I don't feel like using my computer as a space heater in my apartment until at least mid-November, so I can't calculate exactly what will happen to MTU's NPI in every possible scenario. However, just by the vibes of the current standings, here's some decently likely scenarios for the rest of Tech's season and the likelihood I think it gives them to make the postseason:
- MTU wins the GLIAC (see above): 100%
- MTU goes 9-2, finishes second in the GLIAC, losing only to FSU or DU: 99%
Not much to say here, a 9-2 record would put them as a clear top team in the country with their only losses being to (current) top-ten teams. They would likely be the top non-champion seed in the super region, possibly the entire bracket.
- MTU goes 8-3, finishes second in the GLIAC, losing to FSU/DU and SVSU/WSU: 85%
If this happens and they finish second, it would mean the team they beat between Davenport and Ferris State loses another game somewhere. This would likely keep Tech ahead of them in NPI, so they would get the first GLIAC at-large bid.
- MTU goes 8-3, finishes third in the GLIAC, losing to FSU/DU and SVSU/WSU: 50%
This is where things start to get hairy. At 3 losses, 1-loss teams in other conferences will almost certainly have an NPI advantage, while 2-loss teams will at least be close. If the Huskies were to make it in this state, it would be thanks to the strength of schedule points from GLIAC opponents and Emporia State.
- MTU goes 8-3, finishes third in the GLIAC, losing to FSU and DU: 35%
A slightly worse version of the scenario above, as winning against better teams earns you more points. This is where you need other teams in the conversation in other conferences to start taking each other out to keep the dream alive.
- MTU goes 7-4 or worse: near 0%
Essentially, I think the Saginaw Valley State and Wayne State games are must-wins. The Huskies should be able to outplay them to earn a postseason spot, and those wins ought to come significantly easier than the games against Ferris State or Davenport. If the Huskies can manage to win those and either of the Ferris State or Davenport games, I think they're basically a lock to make the playoffs. Of those two, I would think the Davenport game would be more likely, but the Huskies were able to come up with a way to beat GVSU for the first time in over a decade. If any year is the year they beat this Ferris State team, you would think it's this one.
Wrap-Up
Thanks to all of the brave souls who read this far! I hope you're all enjoying the season so far and doing well in your semester, stay tuned for more (hopefully on time) posts as the season continues! If you're a Tech student, remember you can get in to all home games for free using your HuskyCard. I hope to see you all there!