r/Thunder • u/logarithmsucks • 5h ago
Discussion Don't be fooled by Cason Wallace
I love Cason Wallace and don't like to put down one of our players, but I do not think he is worth $25m a year. I'd value him around $18-20m. Anything less, a steal. He's Lu Dort with a different flavor of offense and defense, but ultimately, they have an identical level of impact at their peak performance.
Lots of thunder fans think Cason is an inexpendable piece who must be resigned, even for $30m or more. Many are putting stock into what Cason could become, rather than what he actually is worth now. But I strongly feel that Cason has the lowest ceiling on the team, in terms of room to grow: he will always just be a great defender who takes catch and shoot 3s, and nothing more, he simply is not talented enough to become a secondary point guard or paint touch defenses respect.
He gets his 3s back up to his rookie season 40% and adds a reliable pullup to his bag and that's about the maximum of his potential in the league. That is a valuable $25m, but it is a nowhere near guarantee: he shot only 35% in both the past 2 years, and his preseason debut this year was underwhelming. His transition offense is weak and he struggles to finish over defenders. Many seem to think a few highlight performances in March are evidence he has star point guard potential, but showed no sign of it in the playoffs, and Mark, a very experimental coach, is not trusting him to take on those roles either. If we're relying on Cason to do anything besides maybe bring the ball up the ball and shoot 3s, something has probably gone wrong.
He had a magnificent playoff run shooting wise at 48%, but that can be expected to regress, and he was treated by defenses as another Dort. The Spurs ignored him and cramped the floor to stop Shai, and were willing to gamble on Cason's shooting. It didn't work, but it tells you how little offensive threat Cason poses.
Cason at $18m a year, and swapping between the bench and starting depending on matchup, would be amazing for the thunder. Because he is an elite specialist guard. But the thunder are correct in not immediately giving him another contract for the price he's likely asking for.
12
u/Dar4125 2025 NBA Champions 4h ago
Cason was the only one keeping us in game 7 against the Spurs. You fairweather fans don’t truly watch Thunder basketball, Caso is worth every penny and then some.
2
u/Consistent-Gold-7572 2h ago edited 1h ago
How many other playoffs games that we lost was he the only one keeping us in? He shot great during the spurs series but that was an anomaly. He’s never shot that good in a playoff series ever.
He shot 43/35 in the regular season. You can’t cherry pick one series and act like that’s who he is every game
Yeah if he shot 50% normally this post would have never been made
2
u/logarithmsucks 4h ago edited 4h ago
I watched every game of the last season. And note that I didn't say he was detrimental to the team, I said he is being overvalued.
1
u/Dar4125 2025 NBA Champions 4h ago
If you truly observed every game, not just “watched”, you wouldn’t have even made this post.
2
u/logarithmsucks 4h ago
why do you think that?
i also agree he's "worth every penny"...at $7m a year. even for $20m a year. Past $22/23m and the opportunity cost becomes too high to stomach, in my opinion.
to clarify, i would absolutely love if cason resigned for anything less than $20m
2
u/Consistent-Gold-7572 2h ago edited 2h ago
Yeah I’d have a hard time giving a guy averaging 8 points on 43/35 shooting more than $23m a year even with his all defensive team level defense. With that said I think he gets $25m realistically
We can’t afford to lose him after trading Dort and with Caruso being 33 by the time the playoffs start this year
With the ascension of Ajay and J Mac and soon Stirtz I don’t see that offensive impact growing much. All three of the aforementioned players have higher offensive ceilings and Aday is going to take over for Ihart soon if we pay Cason and he’s much more potent offensively
There’s just not enough shot attempts available for Cason to average 15 a game
0
u/brokenflovvers 3h ago
you need to consider how the contract will age as the cap increases
1
u/Consistent-Gold-7572 2h ago edited 2h ago
You need to consider that we are already over the second apron even paying Cason $0 next season. Also need to pay Ajay and J Mac soon. So we are losing key players regardless. You pay Cason $25m next year and that means we probably trade Ihart
There’s a lot of factors at play now bc we have so many good players rolling off rookie contracts so you can’t waste a penny
3
u/MelodicLavishness335 4h ago
Love Wallace but I also think 20 million is the sweet spot. I do think he’s got more upside than Lu but he’s a positional player. Could totally see a Cason/McCain package for a Trey Murphy deal.
Already know I’m gonna get hate for this comment.
5
u/InstructionNice7090 5h ago
He is not consistent enough on offense for me to warrant that price tag.
He is streaky as a mfer.
But his defense, is wicked. Like wicked wicked.
Love the dude, but not worth that change yet. He needs to become an actual threat on offense. He has a hard time creating his own shot
2
u/HurryAdorable1327 2025 NBA Champions 5h ago
He’s perfectly fine. He’s not used the same way every game and was sitting behind Lu. Look around the league at who’s making 25 a year. You’ll see he’s a steal because he’s elite at something vs a lot of those other guys who are “okay” at things.
3
u/logarithmsucks 4h ago
Unfortunately the thunder are a LOT more cramped financially than other teams because of how expensive their roster is, so they are more limited in what they can afford. I hate that draft picks can cost as much against you as signed agents, hopefully that changes with the 2029 CBA
2
2
u/Headlesshorsman02 4h ago
If we let him go out POA defense will be absolutely crap
1
u/logarithmsucks 4h ago
for sure. if we let him go we would have to make another significant move. i really really hope he just accepts a $20m deal and nothing more
1
u/Consistent-Gold-7572 2h ago
I can tell you right now we already started negotiations at $25m so it’s not going to be less than that
1
u/c00kiemnster 2h ago
Cason is worth - what other teams are willing to pay for him. Zach Lowe has reported other GMs saying $33m a year.
1
u/Lex4Real206 2h ago
If you look at a list of NBA player salaries he definitely falls near the $25M range talent wise. He's a steal any lower. I agree he doesn't have much room to grow to become a justifiable $30M player but someone out there will pay him that amount unfortunately. We'll have to pay 25-30M if we want to keep him. I view him like a pro bowl strong safety with amazing instincts and hands but he's not really the consistent lock down corner that Dort was. Hali just absolutely destroyed him for a half. Offensively he has a higher ceiling than Dort but not by all that much. $30M is a lot to pay for a 4-5th option on offense esp when we have 3 other players on max. We'll eventually pay him but I don't loove it.
0
1
u/CalTheRobot 5h ago
Cason Wallace for MVP.
First we had KD and Westbook.
Then we had Westbrook and Paul George.
Now we have SGA and Cason Wallace.
1
u/CapRight8752 4h ago
OKC will have to pay him. won’t have a choice. another team will offer him way more and they’ll be forced to match or lose him for nothing, which OKC won’t do.
1
u/xMleq 3h ago
First, 25M is not a huge amount in 2026, second, Caso is just as valuable as Lu was in his peak Thunder years and Lu's contract was a steal, third, I believe he has room to grow, maybe you don't and that's okay, but I think he can still add a lot to his game, he probably won't ever be all-star caliber but he still will be one of the best 3-and-D players in the league and that alone is worth 25M
0
u/Stxtic1441 4h ago
I think if he resigned for something similar to what Podz got it would be a more than reasonable contract taking into account what he is already and what he could develop into being.
You were comparing him to Dort a lot but he is a MUCH superior offensive player to him. Dort, especially his last year in OKC, was an extremely destructive offensive player. His constant poor shot selection, lack of ball handling and shot creation, and just general low IQ on that end really hurt OKC a lot.
Cason still has a lot of room to grow on that end and is already far superior of a player there. He can actually handle the ball, can still do the catch and shoot 3 point role, and is also a very underrated strong athlete who can explode at the rim.
Even if he just stays where he’s been (which I don’t think he is still only 22) he’s at worst a premium 1st team all defensive caliber defender and a quality starter on almost any team.
The people acting like he’s not worth paying are the same people that would love to have this guy be a long term cornerstone starter for their own teams.
0
u/xMleq 3h ago
Teams like Nuggets, Lakers, Hawks would kill for a player like Caso on a 25M/yr contract. Which is why I don't get the point of this discourse around Wallace, he's one of our most valuable role players and people are only scared of the 2nd apron when in reality it would be much better to just pay him and trade away somebody like Caruso later on (nothing but love for him) who is getting up there in age
15
u/dnt1694 4h ago
Get out of here. You must be Nuggets or Lakers fans. I could have told you from his rookie year he was going to make 25-35 million a year. His offensive is streaky because he is the 5th option. He is quicker than Dort, has great hands, he brings up the ball. Dort’s only advantage is he is more physical. If Wallace was on a different team he could be an All-Star.