r/Thunder • u/logarithmsucks • 9h ago
Discussion Don't be fooled by Cason Wallace
I love Cason Wallace and don't like to put down one of our players, but I do not think he is worth $25m a year. I'd value him around $18-20m. Anything less, a steal. He's Lu Dort with a different flavor of offense and defense, but ultimately, they have an identical level of impact at their peak performance.
Lots of thunder fans think Cason is an inexpendable piece who must be resigned, even for $30m or more. Many are putting stock into what Cason could become, rather than what he actually is worth now. But I strongly feel that Cason has the lowest ceiling on the team, in terms of room to grow: he will always just be a great defender who takes catch and shoot 3s, and nothing more, he simply is not talented enough to become a secondary point guard or paint touch defenses respect.
He gets his 3s back up to his rookie season 40% and adds a reliable pullup to his bag and that's about the maximum of his potential in the league. That is a valuable $25m, but it is a nowhere near guarantee: he shot only 35% in both the past 2 years, and his preseason debut this year was underwhelming. His transition offense is weak and he struggles to finish over defenders. Many seem to think a few highlight performances in March are evidence he has star point guard potential, but showed no sign of it in the playoffs, and Mark, a very experimental coach, is not trusting him to take on those roles either. If we're relying on Cason to do anything besides maybe bring the ball up the ball and shoot 3s, something has probably gone wrong.
He had a magnificent playoff run shooting wise at 48%, but that can be expected to regress, and he was treated by defenses as another Dort. The Spurs ignored him and cramped the floor to stop Shai, and were willing to gamble on Cason's shooting. It didn't work, but it tells you how little offensive threat Cason poses.
Cason at $18m a year, and swapping between the bench and starting depending on matchup, would be amazing for the thunder. Because he is an elite specialist guard. But the thunder are correct in not immediately giving him another contract for the price he's likely asking for.
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u/Stxtic1441 8h ago
I think if he resigned for something similar to what Podz got it would be a more than reasonable contract taking into account what he is already and what he could develop into being.
You were comparing him to Dort a lot but he is a MUCH superior offensive player to him. Dort, especially his last year in OKC, was an extremely destructive offensive player. His constant poor shot selection, lack of ball handling and shot creation, and just general low IQ on that end really hurt OKC a lot.
Cason still has a lot of room to grow on that end and is already far superior of a player there. He can actually handle the ball, can still do the catch and shoot 3 point role, and is also a very underrated strong athlete who can explode at the rim.
Even if he just stays where he’s been (which I don’t think he is still only 22) he’s at worst a premium 1st team all defensive caliber defender and a quality starter on almost any team.
The people acting like he’s not worth paying are the same people that would love to have this guy be a long term cornerstone starter for their own teams.