r/WayOfTheBern • u/penelopepnortney • Apr 08 '26
Thread #16 for Comments and Updates on the Ongoing War by Israel/US Against Iran
## Update
Thread #17 started: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sh2pma/thread_17_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/?
Continued from Thread #15: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1se9e9x/thread_15_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/?
We start a new thread when the number of comments tops 200 because the thread can get a bit unwieldy to navigate.
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE..... 8:14 AM · Oct 9, 2019
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
What an amazing tweet. "That's a bold strategy, Cotton."
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
He may need to update those numbers before retweeting...
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
um, does he realize that he made the latest decision about "going into the Middle East"--against the advice of nearly everyone with serious military quals, everyone but the wholly unqualified Sec Def HE chose?
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
does he realize that he made the latest decision...
That may or may not be true. Trump may have been "made an offer that he couldn't refuse".
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
It's never too late to learn about irony 😺
(Actually, it's too late for Trump to learn anything, but I like my line.)
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Reminds me a little of Jessica Lynch: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pfc-jessica-rips-rescue-hype/
Another source on your linked story: BREAKING: Service Members Say Pentagon is LYING About Attack in Iran that KILLED AMERICANS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY6ICkpRQlA - 8:14
... breaking news of service members saying the Pentagon is lying about attack in Iran that killed American military, including a look at the whistleblower report, how Hegseth is responding...
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
The $9 Fuel Nightmare: Farmers Are Shutting Down Ireland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsMBhxdFOZA - 11:21
The media is ignoring it, but the global supply chain is currently being shut down by the people who actually grow the food. When diesel hits $9.50 a gallon, the working class doesn't just protest—they stop the machine.
Right now in Ireland, agricultural contractors and truckers are blockading cities because they literally cannot afford to turn the key in the ignition. But do not look away thinking this is just a European problem. Ireland is the canary in the coal mine. This is the mathematical end-state of a fractured global energy market.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
Nima with John Helmer: Why Diplomacy FAILED: Inside Washington's Divide https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y3Taz_drAQ - 26:16
A high-stakes analysis of escalating US-Iran tensions following a failed operation in Isfahan. The discussion highlights heavy military losses, internal divisions within Washington, and rising political risks. It argues that fear and pressure are driving more aggressive responses, while diplomacy remains weak. Iran’s firm stance, including a 10-point proposal and control over the Strait of Hormuz, adds economic and strategic leverage. With global energy, currency shifts, and regional alliances at play, the situation points toward continued escalation rather than immediate resolution.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 09 '26
Evidently even American vassals are going to be negotiating a new deal with the Iranians.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
As Trita Parsi predicted yesterday with Mario Nawfal (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0EHU85b_fk) and today with Wajahat Ali, in a discussion that covered other info as well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0EHU85b_fk)
Both interviews were highly informative. If you need to choose, I'd rec the latter.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
The Duran, Iran War: Hubris, Miscalculation, and the Clash of Interests w/ Joe Kent https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Kr6XCPUogM - 34:05
Glenn Diesen with Lawrence Wilkerson: New World - Iran Ceasefire Fails, NATO Is Dead & the U.S. Risks Civil War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmXwmacMgi4 - 56:45
ETA: Who knew China just build "the world's state of the art port" on the coast of Peru? Wilkerson is a wealth of information about all manner of things that affect global security and trade. Bonus: his personal anecdotes
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
Decision time for Trump | The David Hearst Podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqKPzGsgIEQ - 6:38
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Now is a time of great decision
Are we to stay, or up and quit?
There's no avoiding this conclusion
Our townThis war is turning into shit— "The Ballad of Rock Ridge" from Blazing Saddles (1974)
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Judge Nap with COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : How Iran Brought Trump to His Knees https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrwWSR1IzXo - 26:55 - Wilkerson is absolutely clear on a range of topics.
Judge Nap with COL. Douglas Macgregor : Iran War: A Failure of Imagination https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk2-BHq-Gm0 - 30:32
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain Mocks UAE On Loan Repayments https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfP41NS_ceI - 2:15 - Pakistan owes the UAE, which regularly rolls over the debt. But now
"Based on reports from April 2026, Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain has claimed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is "stuck and helpless" due to financial pressures stemming from its involvement in regional conflicts, particularly in Sudan and Yemen.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Mario N., US & ISRAEL ARE THE AGGRESSORS - w/ Haaretz's Gideon Levy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn2gQBC1eww - 41:26
Kim Iversen, Iran Was Winning… So Why Agree to a Ceasefire? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbr4RuiH8JU - 36 mins
The world is upside-down when CNN features Marjorie Taylor Greene: MTG calls for Trump's removal from office: ‘He’s out of control’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOOsvy6lW8A - 10:49
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
BREAKING: Netanyahu authorises direct talks with Lebanon 'as soon as possible' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xVcTmjVZok - 4:27
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has authorised direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible”. He said peace talks with the Lebanese government will include the disarmament of Hezbollah. This comes hours after the Lebanese government called for direct talks with Israel after more than 200 people were killed in Israeli attacks.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 09 '26
More meaningless chatter. The Lebanese government has said repeatedly that it is unable to disarm Hezbollah and Israel clearly cannot. Not sure what "talks" would accomplish in the first place since the Lebanese government is very pro-West and has to be careful not to alienate its population, which includes lots of diaspora Palestinians and many people supportive of Hezbollah. As with Hamas, there's a militant arm but there's also a civil administration arm that provides many benefits to the Lebanese people and which Israel has attacked as viciously as they've attacked the Hamas civil administrators in Gaza. As with Palestine, Israel's intent is just to destroy Lebanon so they can take it over.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
I read it as PR. Netanyahu's under growing international criticism. Trita Parsi listed Spain, France, Italy, and I think others (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0EHU85b_fk) condemning Israel for massacres of Lebanese civilians. Performative, imo, because Bibi is aware that sentiments continue to turn against Israel. Less than a month ago: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-offer-direct-talks-with-israel-falls-deaf-ears-sources-say-2026-03-13/
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 09 '26
Makes sense. I think he's also getting a lot of pressure domestically because of Iranian air strikes but also undoubtedly from IDF deaths in Lebanon. I think it was Wilkerson who said Hezbollah was very effectively taking out Israel's Mercava tanks and the IDF was encountering a lot more resistance than they expected because they'd been led to believe Hezbollah had been effectively dismantled. And it's been reported for some time now that a lot of reserve IDF soldiers that were re-activated weren't showing up for duty.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
It was Wilkerson. Many reservists are indeed refusing call-up, and protests in Tel Aviv seem to be growing. But I doubt Israel's gov is any more responsive to its ordinary citizens than ours is to us.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
"The only democracy in the Middle East" isn't very democratic.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
A point many have made (including moi), as many have observed our representative democracy is now an oligarchy, per these well-used links I should probably update. The metrics will not have improved:
It’s Official: America Is an Oligarchy https://www.thenation.com/article/society/cbo-american-wealth-inequality/ (Sept. 2022)
US Doesn't Make Top 20 on the Global Democracy Index: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/01/11/united-states-doesnt-even-make-top-20-global-democracy-index
US ranking on Democracy Index, 2006-2022: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1380625/democracy-index-united-states/
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
It would be interesting if Israel is the country that gets a regime change out of all this.
It would be even more interesting if no outside government was trying to make it happen, and it still did.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 09 '26
It would be even more interesting if no outside government was trying to make it happen, and it still did.
It would break the irony meter if that were to happen.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
So basically, they're going to assassinate every Lebanese official coming to the talks, right?
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
Relevant: Israeli ATTEMPTS TO ASSASSINATE Iranian DELEGATION Leads Pakistan To SEND FIGHTER JETS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dR3dXOVYShU - 9:22
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Lebanon should wait until Israeli negotiators are onsite. Better yet, insist talks are held inside the US embassy in Beirut and not travel to Israel or a 3rd-party location unless it's to a US gov nonmilitary facility, such as an embassy, under US escort. That would require Israel to bomb a US building or US personnel to reach Lebanese officials.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has authorised direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible”.
I'm guessing that the Lebanese side of those talks will go a lot differently if Iran's got their back, and Lebanon knows it.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Wilkerson says Israel's taking a beating in this war, including from Hezbollah. Mearsheimer says 80% of Iranian missiles are hitting Israel. Trump could compel Bibi's cooperation. Will he? Doubtful. otoh--
Iran has managed to separate Israel from the United States, and that is something the Israelis will be very worried about. --Trita Parsi here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0EHU85b_fk
Highly rec this 29-min interview.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
CEASEFIRE RATIONALE BREAKDOWN /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2GbA6rGUYE - 1:20
The Truth About Israel's War with Lebanon /Scott Horton & Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHRXAV3W0U4 - 71:20
Report: 15 Vessels To Pass Via Hormuz Daily | Ghalibaf: Lebanon Inseparable Part Of Truce https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH_bXSgkGX0 - 3:20
Iran says Strait of Hormuz has reopened https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE6I9T0-DR0 - 1:46
Iran says ships can once again pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for oil. The country has provided information on where it placed mines
ETA - what's new are the mines-- Iran Mines Strait of Hormuz, Forces Ships Through the 'Tehran Toll Booth' in Its Waters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9rslGBcEZQ&t=5s - 20:08
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
Reopened for nonhostile nations, presumably. Closed for hostile nations. There's no ceasefire.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
It says "including American vessels".
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
I would imagine the referenced announcement was made before the most recent American/Israeli perfidy.
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
Israeli aggressions in Lebanon has even gotten the obsequious Germany speaking out.
Merz: the intensity with which Israel is waging war in Lebanon could cause the entire peace process to fail, and we must not allow that to happen.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
I wonder if Germany is going to do anything aside from saying words, which is the same as what the UK did.
If they were serious, couldn't maybe a coalition of soldiers from countries go to Lebanon to rein in Israel? (The action would have to be backed by assurances that that's all they'd be there for.)
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
BREAKING: The Pope is reportedly "not afraid" to excommunicate JD Vance from the Catholic Church.
Boy- that would really muck up his book tour about converting to Catholicism! 😂
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
BREAKING, US-Iran Ceasefire: First Call Between Saudi Arab & Iran Since Start of War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuAbye0-Luw - 2:47
SPAIN TO REOPEN ITS EMBASSY IN TEHRAN to support 'the peace effort' during the ceasefire https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/spain-reopens-its-embassy-in-iran-after-ceasefire/ar-AA20unY7
https://21stcenturywire.com/2026/04/07/has-trump-lost-his-last-off%e2%80%91ramp-in-isfahan-iran/
The Cradle with Amb. Chas Freeman, How Iran divided the GCC - Highlights https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2RNFNRaiM8 - 12:27
HIGHLY INFORMATIVE DISCUSSION: The Ceasefire That Wasn't! What Comes Next? With Trita Parsi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0EHU85b_fk - 28:57
Around 7:30, one of many relevant points discussed: historic precedent of US presidents (Republican presidents) reining in Israel: Eisenhower with the Suez Canal, Reagan with Syria (with Menachem Begin), using threats of withholding delivery of F-16s. The US can control Israel, because Israel depends on the US.*
There are no wins for the United States. Perhaps the only win one could argue is that at least now we know this was dumb and hopefully, as a result, we won't do it again, and we will be more humble. We will focus on diplomacy. We will focus on our core interests. We will not go into other countries' wars. We will not be led into wars by other countries. One can hope that is the case, but unfortunately, this is a pattern that tends to be recurring.
*https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-foreign-aid-does-the-us-provide/countries/israel/ and https://www.cfr.org/articles/us-aid-israel-four-charts
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
While the US talks of peace they are building an entire Armada in the gulf.
The United States has now deployed more than 50,000 troops across the Middle East, with numbers continuing to surge.
Did anyone question why the ceasefire is only for two weeks? What happens after two weeks?
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
Does anyone think about what will happen to 50,000 troops against Iran's million?
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
Did anyone question why the ceasefire is only for two weeks?
I was questioning why Trump (who allegedly set it up) would have set it to end on yet another TACO Tuesday.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
I saw something yesterday, but don't remember which sub or know how credible.
It was supposed to be 10 days, so ending next Friday? But someone in Pakistan extended it so it would end on a Tuesday.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
No.... that was me... just a theory of mine....
https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sff95h/thread_16_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/oezxcpa/But it makes sense, donit?
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
LOL
Yes, it seems to make sense. If it didn't, I wouldn't have related it. :)
LOL
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
2 questions:
- Where did Pakistan get the courage to assert that Lebanon was included? From China?
NEW:
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇱🇧 Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. says Lebanon WAS included in the ceasefire agreement.
- Why did Trump insult MBS?
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
Because that's what was in Iran's 10 point proposal. That Trump agreed was "workable." Trump is trying to blame this on Pakistan, but all they're doing is proving to Pakistan just how irrational and unreliable the US is.
Because he's an ignorant loose cannon?
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Why Gabor Mate Turned Against Zionism @neutralitystudies https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmtZkebMOv4 - 7:50
"You have to have a closed mind or a closed heart to be a zionist"
Netanyahu faces mounting criticism as Israel’s war goals in Iran remain unmet • FRANCE 24 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBkQzAIqqMA - 2:05
For Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu's critics, Israel is seen as the biggest loser of the conflict with Iran. His war aims including regime change and an end to uranium enrichment have not yet been achieved. And international opinion of Israel has fallen further since the start of the conflict, with a majority of Americans now having a negative view of the country.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
Netanyahu's ... war aims including regime change and an end to uranium enrichment have not yet been achieved.
It would be interesting if those "war aims" were achieved... but not for the country he is wanting them for.
#IsraelFirst
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Nima with Pepe Escobar: How Iran Just DESTROYED 50 Years of US DOMINANCE in the Middle East https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx9ZFggIPeI - 60:20
Mario N., IRAN WONT CEASE UNTIL LEBANON INCLUDED - w/ Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatowski https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSFq__TnLhM - 27:51
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Chris Norlund, Iran just sent a message that has Trump panicking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5bYJ_FdPfQ - 14:02 - Some comments:
The USA government is trumpshit crazy. And trumpgrift greedy.
"a new poll in Hungary found that JD Vance's visit to Budapest made Viktor Orban's party lose 3% of it's support" I just wanted to share some good news amidst all the horror and destruction, because it's imperative that we don't give in to despair. Hopelessness is the objective to paralise us, remember that the empire is dying.
Hi from New Zealand. We run out of diesel in 20 days. We blame the US for this, not Iran
Iranian LEGO videos are now the most accurate source of information on the war.......
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
This Ceasefire Won't Lead to Peace /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToYaTp6rTgQ - 45:33
Novara Media, China Will Win The Iran War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw5oizoO7ic - 21:40
Neutrality Studies with Col. Douglas Macgregor, Iran Ends US Hegemony In West Asia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFfyszFd8Pw - 50:27
After 40 days of war, a (first) ceasefire is taking effect between the US/Israel and Iran. However, nobody is fooled about the prospects of this pause in the fighting to durably end the conflict. However, the fact that the US was compelled into this break speaks volumes about the new distribution of power in West Asia. The US will never gain back what it just lost.
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
The Clock In Islamabad Is Ticking. And The World Is Watching Anxiously... By PREM PANICKER
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not.
Key Points
- US-Iran ceasefire collapsed within 48 hours amid conflicting narratives, renewed strikes, and widening regional tensions involving multiple actors.
- Israel escalated attacks in Lebanon, claiming exclusion from ceasefire, triggering heavy casualties and raising risks of broader conflict.
- Iran retaliated through regional strikes and shut the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying global energy market instability.
- Trump's shifting statements on ceasefire terms created confusion, weakening US credibility among allies and adversaries alike.
- Diplomatic talks in Islamabad face uncertainty as mistrust deepens, hardliners gain influence, and escalation risks continue rising.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not.
One is. Or was.
I don't even see why they're meeting, based on the "misunderstanding" about allies and Lebanon, the US doesn't seem to be serious about peace.
But I guess it's what mature, diplomatic people do. Give the children a chance to learn and grow up.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
The Iranians have proven themselves over and over as being honest and reliable.
Israel and the US have repeatedly proven themselves to be neither of those things.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
It makes me sad to agree.
(But the propaganda about the US that I've seen for over 60 years is just that.)
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 09 '26
But I guess it's what mature, diplomatic people do.
If there is one thing that the Iranians have done through this, it's maintaining the appearance of being "the adults in the room."
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
Absolutely.
China and Russia are up there, too. (The past several years.)
Are these embarrassing temper-tantrums normal when an empire collapses?
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u/arnott Apr 09 '26
Barbaria strategically surrenders. Civilization wins. For now - Pepe Escobar
This was always about Civilization.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” History will register it with a gaze as pitiless as the Sun. An astonishing barbarian imprimatur, courtesy of the President of the United States, via a social media post.
In a nutshell, this was a trashy “civilization” that gave the world the Big Mac threatening to wipe out an ancient civilization that gave the world algebra; influenced art, science, governance in unparalleled ways; produced stars from Cyrus the Great to Avicenna, from Omar Khayyam to poet supreme Jalaladdin Rumi; developed serial, sublime gardens, carpets, architectural wonders and philosophical and ethical frameworks.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 09 '26
Congress and former Congress still making money on insider trading.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 09 '26
I wonder if this is the same one?
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
Gee, maybe if federal investigators actually did their job, they could investigate and find out.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Pulled out of a multi-link post to its own, with bullets from the 1st half of the interview--
Mario with Trita Parsi, IRANIAN CEASEFIRE COLLAPSED IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guLzKtu9Irw - 31:58 - Intelligent commentary from Parsi, as usual; worth a listen. He speaks to changing attitudes within the Gulf and GCC, Iran toward different Gulf states, a group within Iran that wanted to reject the ceasefire and hold out for an end to the war.
Trump was sold a false perception of what this war would be like by the Israelis telling him it would be extremely easy and very quick, and as a result, this would lead to a glorious quick victory for Trump, which clearly was not the case. I think he's now realized that was all false. He's managed to get himself out of this war. Why would he go back in?
What has changed militarily that would make one believe a second bit at the apple would actually work? At the end of the day, Iran still has the ability to hold the global economy hostage, and it will continue to do so as long as the geography is what it is.
Discussing a US departure from the war, leaving Israel and UAE to fight Israel Iran, Parsi said:
The Abraham Accord was an anti-Iran alliance being built. In many ways it had already existed behind the scenes, with a convergence between some of the Arab states and Israel against what they saw as a common threat. I always thought it to be astonishingly foolish by the UAE... The UAE's problems with Iran are far more solvable than Iran's and Israel's problems with each other. ... The Emiratis have been very active, especially in the Horn of Africa, and as a result have been on pretty bad terms with almost all the GCC countries with the exception of Bahrain.
On war crimes, he sees this danger: Pete Hegseth says he's not going to abide by any of these laws of war and norms of force, even though many of them are not international law, they're actually part of US law. If that becomes the standard, you're going to see everyone violating these laws and committing war crimes. It's in everyone's interest to see that those laws are observed and upheld.
Parsi doesn't expect the US to go fully back into this war.
I think it would have a devastating effect for Trump politically in the US. Moreover, if it turns out that even 24 hours after the ceasefire, Israel is capable of sabotaging it, then what value does any negotiation with Trump have? It essentially means that he's not in control of his own foreign policy, that the real address is in Israel, and there's not going to be any negotiation with Israel. If he really wants to get out of this war, it will require some firmness from the United States.
At 30:02, Parsi outlined how he expects things to pan out by the end of the month.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
PATRICK HENNINGSEN, PLEASE SHARE: Every American Needs to Hear This - Iran is NOT Our Enemy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YRo8wejjVM - 41:03
Ceasefire Quagmire /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YT6_l53JVMQ - 4:48
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
BreakThrough News: Rania Khalek Recounts ‘Terrifying Massacres’ in Beirut w/ Vijay Prashad https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnShCM2mHFQ - 12:33
Wanton destruction, utterly terrifying massacres, buildings and areas of Beirut they hadn't hit before with zero warnings to people. I have never been as scared as I was today.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
New LEGO Video from IRAN | LOSERS FIRST! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0u_BNPOsMw
Clever as usual, with plenty of truth bombs (the kind that can hurt but don't kill).
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
The official narrative: 'The President Has All The Cards Here': JD Vance Doubles Down On US Calls For Iran Denuclearization https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWmFz3uoG0o - 1:01
ETA: meanwhile... Bondi won't appear for Epstein investigation deposition https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuXta0--dIY
“Bondi cannot escape accountability simply because she no longer holds the office of Attorney General," Rep. Nancy Mace said.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
The President has no cards.
I can't believe any of these yahoos think there is going to be any negotiation now.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Cards, no; nukes, yes. Good overview discussion here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0kU-g0T_18 (I haven't yet watched a couple of others that may be good, too)
ETA another link, with Trita Parsi's customary worthwhile analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guLzKtu9Irw
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
Russia also has nukes, and I believe they said that if nukes are used against Iran, Iran is under their nuclear umbrella.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
That's been raised as a possibility, but Russia hasn't done it. It has provided fuel and design and other assistance for Iranian nuclear reactors but evacuated its nuclear plant personnel from Iran when those sites became targets.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
I assumed (based on nothing) that "under our nuclear umbrella" meant that if we or Israel uses nukes on Iran, then Russia may retaliate. (Or it would definitely retaliate after a second one.)
I don't know - sometimes I feel embarrassed to admit that I'm in my 60s when I realize I assume things like this.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Nuclear umbrellas are codified by formal documents, as with this recent Saudia Arabia-Pakistan defense pact: https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/saudi-arabia-places-itself-under-pakistans-nuclear-umbrella-amid-regional-tensions
otoh, Russia could simply announce it had placed Iran under its nuclear umbrella. It hasn't--but it could.
ETA - no need to be embarrassed! I have to look up a ton of stuff, some I hadn't known and some I'm old enough to have forgotten.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
Thank you!
I have no idea who said something about Russia's nuclear umbrella. Maybe a commentator said that Russia could say it, and I misremembered. Because, probably, if Russia had said it, you would know! :)
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
--or I might've missed it or misremembered it or forgotten it entirely. Those of us who're trying to pay attention are drowning in rapidly changing and competing info these days.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 09 '26
LOL - that's true!
But I think I'm the only one who has said it the last couple of days, so I'll say it's more likely that I misremember/misunderstood or whatev. (Hey - I don't mind taking the fall! I have a chronic illness that makes my brain dumb sometimes! Or maybe that's "often".)
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Mario with Davis, U.S. Iran Ceasefire Fails to Hold - w/ Col. Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0kU-g0T_18 - 31:50 - Davis destroys Hegseth's remarks in his forthright way.
300 civilians were killed in Lebanon today.
This ceasefire is looking like it might be stillborn in the cradle because the fundamental problems haven't been addressed.
Netanyahu, Trump 'Allies' try to Sabotage Ceasefire /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxNWfCFXTRM - 20:24
Iran's Nuclear Dust /Pepe Escobar & Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OIhAQUotvk - 21:38
INTERVIEW: Netanyahu needs m*rder and violence to survive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vztPqEuiJ1Y - 52:50
It was a regional ceasefire including Lebanon, the Pakistan Prime Minister said so. It's a ceasefire on all fronts or no fronts. How can we trust Trump? Iran prepares to go back to war.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
OK Trump, here's how you can get yourself out of the mess you stepped in:
1) Tell Israel to stop bombing places and killing people.
2) Get Israel to do what you tell them to do.
Best of luck on that second part.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
Turn off the spigot for the money and the munitions and they'll listen. That requires Congress to act, ergo, not gonna happen. The Israel Lobby in US Congress: https://www.trackaipac.com/congress
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
No, it doesn't. All it requires is a State Department recognition of the fact that Israel is using the munitions to commit genocide (which it objectively is, and has done, for the last few years at least). It's illegal to provide munitions to a country doing what Israel has been doing.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Ah, you're raising the hypocrisy issue, in which the US brings up such objections selectively when it suits US foreign policy objectives. Doing anything meaningful to stop Israel's atrocities is not likely to be a foreign policy objective of this or any other administration in my lifetime.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
That requires Congress to act
Didn't Biden do that to Ukraine that one time, without an Act of Congress?
And then let the money through after they did The Thing that Biden wanted them to do?2
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
I didn't recall and looked it up. Addled Joe/his handlers delayed aid in 2021 after Congress had approved the package, so the pres. has that authority once funds are allocated; Congress delayed approving aid in 2024.
2021: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine-military-lethal-weapons-495169
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26
He could threaten to cut off financial aid, put a hold on further munitions and pull the American troops reportedly manning the A/D systems. He has the leverage but it's extremely doubtful he'll use it.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
He has the leverage but it's extremely doubtful he'll use it.
I think a lot of us might have a heart attack if he did. Even those of us without heart problems.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 09 '26
might have a heart attack
I'd prefer a nice fainting spell. This is an obscure reference to The Man Who Shot Liberty Valence (1962). Nora Ericson, the middle-aged Swedish co-owner of the town restaurant quips: "Someday he order something different unt ve all faint dead avay." My favorite line. 🥩🥔🥧
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
Lovely movie. Thanks for reminding me. Interesting the way the character played by Jimmy Stewart, an untraditional male hero, is played off the character played by John Wayne, the traditional male stereotype.
Another one of my oldie favorites is The Big Country. Gregory Peck, Charlton Heston, both playing along with type. Peck the principled real man, Heston the not so bright thuggish male sterotype. Jean Simmons playing the intelligent woman with impressive bazzoombas.
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
Vance says that the US agreed to a ceasefire that includes "America's allies -- both Israel and the Gulf Arab states." He then says it's "dumb" for Iran to insist that the ceasefire include Lebanon, "which has nothing to do with them." So the US can include its allies in a ceasefire, but Iran can't do the same?
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
That one crack from Vance is so unutterably "dumb" it shouldn't have been uttered. SO dumb that it alone disqualifies him from legitimacy as a negotiator.
Where in hell are the American career diplomats? Oh right. The State Dept and Foreign Service are in "shambles," according to Amb. Chas Freeman. It speaks volumes about this administration that Trump would turn to a real estate magnate and a Chabad-loving SIL to negotiate his way out of this disastrous mess of his own making.
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
JD Vance now contradicting @CMShehbaz — whose announcement of the ceasefire explicitly included Lebanon and U.S. allies and which Trump shared
JD Vance: "I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't. We never made that promise, we never indicated that was gonna be the case."
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
JD Vance: "we never indicated that was gonna be the case."
I wonder what other things are going to turn out to "never was gonna be the case."
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26
Then they should have made that proviso when they accepted the proposal.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
What are they - new? (US)
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26
Not sure if I'm understanding but what I meant was that if they say they accept the proposal, that means in its entirety unless you spell out what you're not agreeing to. Like how people will sign consent agreements but line out and initial any language they do not agree to.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
I meant the US "negotiators" were too new to deal with legal agreements of this type.
So much for them being experienced/successful business people.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
if they say they accept the proposal...
Did they actually say they did, or did they just say something that sounded like they said they did?
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26
That sounds very spider-like. Thank you for the invitation into your parlor but I'm good where I am.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
Understood.
But in cases like this, sometimes you have to go hunt down the exact words that were officially spoken (or tweeted).
They may not have said what they wanted you to think that they said.
Obama was really good at that.3
u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26
You're right, of course, but I'm too 1) lazy, and 2) skeptical of the whole thing to take the time to do that.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
According to the link that 3andfro found, there may not even be any "exact words that were officially spoken."
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Mario N., Why Lebanon Was LEFT OUT of Ceasefire? - w/ Jonathan Conricus On Iran War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqKxRVbW64U - 53:05
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
Iran’s FM Araghchi says US must choose ceasefire or war via Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPexJNRXQ5I - 3:31
“The conditions for a ceasefire between Iran and the United States are clear and explicit: America must choose either a ceasefire or the continuation of war through Israel; both cannot coexist,” Araghchi wrote on X.
“The world is witnessing the killings in Lebanon. Now the ball is in America’s court, and global public opinion is watching to see whether this country will fulfill its commitments or not.”
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
Will they (please) kick the US and Israel out of the UN now???
"Everyone" knows Israel is not trustworthy; the US has now shown the same.
They should kick us out, make needed reforms and then, maybe, allow us back in. (Members in good standing must abide by ICC and ICJ rulings.)
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
the US has now shown the same.
I don't think that they have yet.
Doesn't mean that they won't soon, Or haven't previously.But this time, I don't think they have done anything.
At least nothing provable.3
u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
Or haven't previously.
That's what I meant. We have shown it, even if it was 5 weeks ago, and a year ago, and ...
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
That's what I meant.
Oh. Sounded like you meant "this time."
Looks like you won't have long to wait to be able to say "this time."
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
I could have been more clear, but I knew what I meant. :)
(Used to be better at proofing, but oh well. Sorry! To all of you!)
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
both cannot coexist,” Araghchi wrote on X.
You know, both could coexist...
US does not fire at Iranian targets; Iran does not fire at US targets.
Iran levels Israel. And anyone else who attacks Iran (UAE).Just don't expect the Strait to be open while that's going on.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
And then there's Lebanon.
Also, apparently UAE is behind the post-ceasefire bombing of Iran's Lavan Island refinery, attributed initially to unspecified "enemy attack," so another player is violating the ceasefire agreed to on its behalf by the US.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
I never anticipated Israel using a proxy....
But it might be doing so in this case.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
What (IMO) Iran should be saying now:
There is still a chance for some of this proposed cease-fire to hold.
Do not attack us.
Do not attack Lebanon.If you do either, we reserve the right to attack you back. Hard.
Don't start nuthin.... won't BE nuthin
Once the firing ceases, we can re-open the Strait.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 08 '26
So Trump wants to send the same 2 people, Witkoff and Kushner to negotiate.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
Witkoff and Kushner "led" by Vance:
Leavitt said Trump is dispatching his negotiation team lead [sic] by Vice President JD Vance, Middle East special envoy Steven Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner to conduct the talks days after a two-week ceasefire deal was said to have been reached. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOgPh2jEwwY
Vance seems to be the perfume offered to mask the odor of previous mid-negotiation betrayal attached to the other two.
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u/BigTroubleMan80 Apr 08 '26
I swear Iran is surrounded by snakes.
But they’re sitting on top of a riding lawnmower.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
And they need to cut the grass close. I mean, right down to the ground.
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u/BigTroubleMan80 Apr 09 '26
Good God NO!
You’ll jam up the blades, especially with these fat fucks.
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
CEASEFIRE COLLAPSE
Ghalibaf:
"From the beginning, we have followed the ongoing process with distrust, and as expected, the United States violated its commitments even before negotiations began.
As clearly stated by the U.S. President, the ten-point initiative presented by the Islamic Republic of Iran serves as the foundation and practical framework for these talks. However, three points of this proposal have already been breached:
Violation of the first point regarding an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon, which Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif explicitly acknowledged as a “total and immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other areas.”
Entry of an attacking drone into Iranian airspace, which was destroyed in the city of Lar in Fars province, breaching the provision prohibiting any new aggression in Iranian airspace.
Denial of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment, which is explicitly stated in point six of the framework.
Even this basic negotiation framework has been flagrantly violated in three of its main points before talks have even started.
Under these circumstances, there is no meaningful purpose for either a mutual ceasefire or negotiations."
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Glenn Diesen with Prof. Marandi: Israel Breaks Ceasefire, Iran Retaliates With Missile Strikes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JLpmWX_Eu8 - 47:05
Novara Media, BBC CAUGHT Manufacturing Consent For Nuclear War On Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjYB5IXxAd0 - 25:38
What Will This CeaseFire Lead To? Pepe Escobar & Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82bKfWICwVs - 49:58
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 08 '26
Looks like the UAE also foolishly violated the ceasefire.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
UAE Makes A HUGE Mistake! | Iran RESPONDS With DEVASTATING STRIKES https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkQcrwSE0yQ - 13 mins
A US source said the Lavan refinery attack in Iran was not done by the US or Israel.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
Impeachment again?
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5820927-trump-impeachment-iran-war/
Contains info about the impeachment process, useful to assess the stories: https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/article-of-impeachment-filed-today-senate-213dc2
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
Maybe if they hadn't done the performative one(s) in his first term, this time might be more impactful. (I should probably say "ha!")
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
Time for another round of the Witkoff and Jared charade. How do you say "Groundhog Day" in Farsi?
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Iran considering ‘punishment’ for Israeli ceasefire breaches https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2NaOP0xmeE - 5:50
Iran's Foreign Minister has already flagged concerns about ceasefire breaches in Iran and Lebanon during a call with Pakistan's Army commander. Iranian authorities have reported an “enemy attack” on an oil refinery on Lavan Island.
BREAKING: Iran's Lavan Island Refinery Targeted Despite Ceasefire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9L5Apb0HzZs - 2:07
Iran War: IRGC Warns Any Foreign Aircraft Entry Breaches Ceasefire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xATiigj8lVU - 1:17
Iranian Media Reports That Country Will Withdraw From Truce if Attacks on Lebanon Are Not Stopped https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKuy21uW_eY - 3:07
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it has shot down an Israeli Hermes 900 drone over southern Iran, escalating tensions despite an ongoing ceasefire. Tehran warned that any violation of its airspace would trigger a decisive response, underlining how fragile the situation remains. The Hermes 900 is a high-end surveillance drone often used for reconnaissance missions, making the incident a serious flashpoint in an already tense region. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xATiigj8lVU
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
ISRAEL IN REAL DANGER — NOT LIKE BEFORE | Col. Larry Wilkerson https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPlGdxh_1J0 - 51:32
They [Israel] are getting their butts handed to then. Tel Aviv was described to me today by a longtime citizen as 'burning.'
The Cradle, Israel DESTROYS Trump's ceasefire in Lebanon today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcFqRRiDw5g - LIVE - emotional real-time presentation, reporting no electricity or Internet. "There was no preparation for this whatsoever" for what's happening with 2 of her colleagues who provide tech support to podcast in Beirut
ETA: https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkx_KualVWQ5AtYgY119TRlxV_28OR5gsj3--
A new Pew Research Center survey, conducted weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, found that six in 10 Americans now hold an unfavourable view of Israel, up from 53 percent last year and by nearly 20 points since 2022. ...
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
Iranian navy source says only two oil tankers used the ceasefire to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before Israel violated the agreement. Strait now closed to all except Iranian ships and vessels coming from Iran. — Al-Mayadeen
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Iran has approved a draft bill to formalise transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, introducing a tiered system for global shipping. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MylPAisVfY4
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u/rondeuce40 DC Is Wakanda For Assholes Apr 08 '26
That's got to be the shortest ceasefire in world history, it's debatable as to whether anything actually ceased.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Danny Haiphong, Iran WINS as Trump SURRENDERS, Tel Aviv Under Heavy Fire | Col. Larry Wilkerson & Dave DeCamp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AT_IVGLfaI4 - 61:42
Daniel Davis with Larry Johnson, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNNJwYXtChs - 58:25
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 08 '26
Looks like Israel wants to continue the war with or without the US.
That’s a bold strategy. Let’s see how it plays out for them.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
Have to suspect they want to drag the US back into attack mode.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 08 '26
I was listening to Nima (? I think it was Nima, they all blend together after a while) about how JD Vance with Kushner and Witcoff were planning to have negotiations with Iran based on the 10 point plan in Islamabad, but at this rate, Vance may be SOL'd for his 2028 run.
This has already been a disaster for MAGA and they are just digging deeper into their graves.
Hopefully some of the geniuses in Washington figure out which country is dragging them into a shithole before it's too late. I expect disappointment.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
I think they know which country is doing the dragging, don't you? The problem seems to be that so many of "the geniuses in Washington" are beholden to that country through on-the-record campaign donations or behind-the-scenes blackmail via Epstein-related info.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Davis/Deep Dive with Pepe Escobar, What Will This Cease Fire Lead To? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82bKfWICwVs - 49:58 - Early points made:
This is a total lost-in-translation epic. The key intervention was China. They convinced Iran to take a chance.
The Pakistanis said from the beginning Lebanon is part of this ceasefire. The White House now says it's not. There's a lot of misunderstanding.
The so-called negotiators cut corners; there's nothing in writing. This isn't even a formal ceasefire.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 08 '26
The Pakistanis said from the beginning Lebanon is part of this ceasefire. The White House now says it's not. There's a lot of misunderstanding.
It's slowly becoming apparent that this agreement was destined for failure. I had my hopes up for a period of 6 hours.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sff95h/thread_16_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/of0bfr5/ - Escobar may give more info in the rest of the interview. I usually wait until after they're live to listen.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
TRT with James Dorsey, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore: Is Israel ready for ceasefire with Iran? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o3pUs1a61Q - 4:55
For Israelis, the issue is they don't want a ceasefire. They don't think they've finished what they want to achieve in Iran, and one way of trying to disrupt is to insist, in contradiction to what Iran says, that other conflicts in the Middle East--first and foremost, Lebanon--are not included in the ceasefire arrangement.
Rachel Blevins with Prof. Marandi, THE CEASEFIRE IN IRAN 'WON'T LAST' IF ISRAEL CONTINUES ATTACKS ON LEBANON https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFMwcanjO9s - 19:49
Prof. Marandi noted that contrary to Netanyahu’s claims, this ceasefire is based on Iran’s 10-point plan, which includes the cessation of hostilities on ALL fronts, including in Lebanon. He emphasized that if Israel’s attacks continue, “this ceasefire will NOT last,” and Iran will not move forward with a deal to end this war.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
For Israelis, the issue is they don't want a ceasefire. They don't think they've finished what they want to achieve in Iran,
Time for them to grow the fuck up.
We don't always get what we want, in life or in politics.
But, actually, I think I want them to continue behaving the way they do so that the world can somehow do something about the cancer that is Israel.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
On Trump's mental health--
Judge Nap with Gilbert Doctorow : Is President Trump a Madman? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A--OM2anXx0 - 27:21
'Clearly insane', 'not well', 'stunning': Papers discuss Trump's rhetoric • FRANCE 24 English https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9np-mlJSOpc - 5:03
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
'This momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost' — Spain's PM Pedro Sanchez on Iran-US ceasefire
'The Government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket.
https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkx7cDJsKrfLKXBS0pGOiUetA7WZuvvZbv1
Greenpeace has announced that it will send a 50-metre ship to support the next Gaza aid flotilla, which is scheduled to depart Barcelona on Sunday. Flotilla organisers have said the boat, Arctic Sunrise, will sail alongside more than 70 vessels and 1000 participants, in a new attempt - the largest ever - to break Israel’s illegal siege of Gaza.
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxD20BenC9TvK216TNgtK2EjqPVvJrbuQ4
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Judge Nap with Larry Johnson : Iran Took Trump to the Cleaners! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdcAHhXgtgE - 34:12
Andrei Jikh, They're Using This War To 'Replace The Dollar' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qyqO44qrk - 26:23
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Why the ceasefire will fail--
Mario N., TRUMP'S IRAN CEASEFIRE BROKEN - w/ Col. Daniel Davis, Eylon Levy & Trita Parsi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyVLr6-s_Uk - LIVE
Mario N. with Malcolm Nance, Trump's Ceasefire ALREADY Falling Apart https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdZYqFrbw4Y - 72:38
Mario with Larry Johnson, Trump's Ceasefire MIGHT NOT SURVIVE LONG https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huUU-lGdJ_I - 56:54
Judge Nap with Scott Ritter : WHAT CEASEFIRE? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Es4SVCVsl5s - 36:02
Cyrus Janssen with "legendary trend forecaster" Gerald Celente, American Economist Reveals Why Iran Ceasefire Will Fail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j2P4P1U9Ng - 35:56
Chris Norlund, Why the ceasefire was always going to fail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA0Z2Ikw8PI - 10:34 - "There will never be peace in the Middle East unless you address the Israel issue."
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
"There will never be peace in the Middle East unless you address the Israel issue."
Just a few years ago I figured Israel had a right to defend itself.
Then I learned about the Nakba. And even more after that. Israel has to go.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
Nima with Laith Marouf: Hezbollah’s Position on US-Iran Ceasefire: What You’re Not Being Told https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFuQLWAgCkI - 51:22
The Duran, IRAN WAR: Conditional Ceasefire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvNcXGtB3ME - 76:02
Diesen with Timofei Bordachev: A New Great Game for Central Asia? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38J1vI0zWsw - 41:42
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/from-dire-straits-to-done-deal-triumphant
Davis/Deep Dive, Victory? Don't Insult Our Intelligence, Mr. Sec of War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPIMySncmgw - 12:56
Nima with Pepe Escobar: OFF-RAMP: Iran-Israel War Enters New Phase https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CISQWpYFpGE - 32:49
Gulf countries report attacks despite Iran ceasefire • FRANCE 24 English https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnD9_7v3dY8 - 4:47
Chris Norlund, You were right about Trump's peace deal scam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ-U8tSUblY - 12:59
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
Israel is committing an absolute massacre in Beirut. Reports of massive bombing and shaking throughout the city.
The IDF itself calls it the "largest coordinated strike across Lebanon' since March 2." Israeli media already has the death toll at 14 but it will climb much higher.
Video circulating online shows the aftermath of heavy Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, Lebanon.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Israel Bombards Lebanon--
Reuters: LIVE: Aftermath of Israeli strikes in Beirut https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nNHSmOMPGc
Israel launches ‘unprecedented’ assault on Lebanon amid US-Iran ceasefire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03M1eoUdU88 - 6:29
‘Hundreds’ killed, wounded in latest wave of Israeli strikes on Lebanon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEld69HB3vc - 7:35
Israel has launched what it calls its largest wave of strikes on Lebanon since the war began, targeting Beirut and other areas with approximately 100 sites hit in rapid succession. Lebanese security sources describe the assault as the heaviest of the conflict, with the health ministry reporting hundreds killed and wounded. Many strikes hit densely populated residential and commercial areas not previously targeted and where Hezbollah is not known to operate, taking residents by surprise. Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and has declared Lebanon excluded from the US–Iran ceasefire, despite Pakistani and European calls for the truce to apply across the region.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah infrastructure
Yeah, right.
No one believes you lying liars anymore.
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u/BigTroubleMan80 Apr 08 '26
Israel is crashing out after Trump tacoes again.
And is unfortunately letting their rage out on Lebanon.
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
"Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire" -- @FinancialTimes
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u/arnott Apr 08 '26
Iran Ceasefire: Pakistan Was Reading From Washington's Script By PREM PANICKER
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'.
Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire.
Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'.
Key Points
- Trump threatened massive strikes on Iran but shifted to a ceasefire under pressure and complex geopolitical constraints.
- Iran's public mobilisation and strategic positioning strengthened its leverage while avoiding direct large-scale military escalation.
- The 10-point peace proposal reflected maximalist demands, including sanctions relief, nuclear rights, and regional influence retention.
- Pakistan's role as mediator was undermined by a leaked draft message, raising questions about diplomatic credibility.
- Despite ceasefire optics, Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining critical leverage over global energy flows.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 08 '26
Fooling no one except maybe the most gullible of their remaining MAGA supporters.
Unless this was all a palace ruse to fool Trump himself?
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 08 '26
Something I've been wondering...
Why are all these things happening on Tuesdays?
Trump has to know what people are calling them -- TACO Tuesdays.
They can't be keeping that from him, can they?My theory on this:
the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad.
The White House draft said "ten day cease-fire". That would end on a Friday evening, after the markets have closed. Pakistan looked at it and said "Hey y'all... watch this."
Ten DayTwo WeekTACO Tuesday, bitch.
And there was nothing Trump could do about it.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26
From Fox News: BREAKING: Iran strikes Israel with cluster bombs after Trump ceasefire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgbS78C37oM - 2:14
Reminder: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sfbvzg/total_cavein_from_trump_which_is_good_news_though/oexi5ea/ -- what's true, what's not? Though I found 1 story that says Israel will abide by the ceasefire (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL0whi4wGao), the stories about the agreement repeat the phrase "double-sided"--not "triple-sided" or "three-way."
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u/splodgenessabounds Apr 08 '26
Quelle surprise. Shitrael is making the most (worst) of Uncle Donald's favour before he/ the Repugs are gone.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Retired US Army Major: Netanyahu will immediately look for ways to prevent a US-Iran peace deal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Qu48LF_1PQ - 23:12
Retired US Army Major Harrison Mann explained to SiriusXM radio's Dean Obeidallah that Benjamin Netanyahu will immediately look for ways to prevent a US-Iran peace deal since that is not in Israeli's interest: "We can expect more Israeli attacks against Iran, or what they consider provocative attacks against Iran. We saw it today already, they were going after civilian infrastructure, railways, and bridges."
Max Blumenthal on the Israeli network in the White House https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwsarCIu-8M - 9:19
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u/yaiyen Apr 08 '26
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office said Tuesday that Israel will suspend strikes against Iran provided Iran “immediately opens the Straits and ceases all attacks on the United States, Israel, and countries in the region.” “The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” the statement reads. https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2041713884374167900
You can say this is the end of Lebanon. Israel can now fully concentrated on Lebanon. Greater Israel is very close
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u/themadfuzzybear Just here for the Pasta Putinesca Apr 08 '26
Greater Israel is very close
If there's anyone left to live there.
Though most Zios refuse to even move there now.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 08 '26
Israel doesn't include Lebanon in their ceasefire, but Iran does. If Israel continues attacking Lebanon, Iran will continue attacking Israel and keep the strait closed. So be it.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 08 '26
So effectively, it won’t be a ceasefire
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u/gorpie97 Apr 08 '26
When it comes to Israel, I'd rather not have one. It's not doing Gaza any good.
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u/emorejahongkong Apr 08 '26
Two weeks
- 'is a long time in politics'
- But is probably not long enough for Iran and USA to agree on a "final deal" that Israel isn't willing and able to sabotage.
- But it might be long enough for a majority of Trump's cabinet to organize a 25th Amendment switch to Vance.
Trump might be able to keep Vance out of the 25th amendment loop by keeping Vance on site at face to face negotiations in a third country.
Would Iranian negotiators feel safe in Pakistan? China could presumably offer higher assurances of physical safety.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 08 '26
Their best chance of safety is to have Vance in the room at the same table, but someone over at Naked Capitalism suggested Israel might not balk at taking out Vance, too.
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u/splodgenessabounds Apr 08 '26
But is probably not long enough for Iran and USA to agree on a "final deal" that Israel isn't willing and able to sabotage
Barring a nuclear conflagration, I can't think of any scenario in which Shitrael wouldn't immediately violate any such "deal" (not that I'd trust the US very much either).
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26
Would Iranian negotiators feel safe in Pakistan?
Good question. But even if the talks were held in China they would have to get there and I'm guessing there's lots of "mishaps" that could happen between Point A and Point B.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 08 '26
Pakistan does have nukes, so if Israel launches an attack on negotiators in Islamabad they might be biting off more than they can chew.
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Nima R. Alkhorshid: Iran-US Double Ceasefire: What Just Happened? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_YpJENeAOM - 37:16
Trump ‘didn’t have good options’ but to take the ceasefire deal: Analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YO4K0Eo3x_I - 16:08
Trump’s hand was forced to accept a ceasefire deal with Iran because he “does not have any good options” on the table, a foreign policy expert on Iran has said. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute said a wider US-Israeli war with Iran would “destroy the Trump presidency”.
“He was talking a big game about escalatory steps, but everyone in the region knew that if you go after Iran’s energy resources and power plants, the Iranians would retaliate against GCC states, and we would have a much, much worse energy crisis than we have now,” Parsi said. “He needed to get out of this.
He made his threats earlier today to give the appearance that an agreement he would come to by this evening was done on his terms,” Parsi noted. “But when you actually look at it, it appears that it wasn’t. Even his own statement said that the negotiations will be based on the 10-point plan of the Iranians, which is a much more reasonable plan.”
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u/3andfro Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign affairs minister, confirmed a two-week ceasefire between his country and the US.
“If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations”, Araghchi wrote in a statement. “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”
From the link above (scroll down past the Recommended stories), false flags for the GCC states?--
Qatar’s Defence Ministry has announced that its armed forces intercepted a missile attack. The attack comes after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Kuwait has said it was taking on “hostile” attacks following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire. “Kuwaiti air defenses are currently confronting hostile missile and drone attacks”, the country’s Army wrote on X over an hour after US President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran would stop fighting for two-weeks.
Abu Dhabi authorities are responding to a fire at its Habshan gas-processing facility, officials have said. The Abu Dhabi Media Office announced the fire hours after US President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran had agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
Israel continues attacking Iran, despite US ceasefire announcement: report
The US has agreed to end strikes on Iran for two-weeks, but that doesn’t mean its partner in the war will stop attacking the Middle Eastern country.
The Israeli Air Force has continued to target Iran, despite the newly announced ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, a security official told The Times of Israel.
Israel and the United Arab Emirates also sounded missile alerts after the ceasefire announcement, the Associated Press reported.
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u/emorejahongkong Apr 08 '26
For the next two weeks:
US military cannot withdraw very far without visibly giving up much of Trump's ability to threaten Iran through conventional military action. Presumably staying in the region will not include returning to abandoned bases, or even nearby ports. Beyond the general wear and tear of the proverbial "extended tours", this leaves time for morale erosion, with all personnel having time for adrenaline to wear off and for non-supremacy facts to sink in.
US and Israeli re-stocking of missiles could only, within such a short time frame, mainly be done by moving more missiles from other theaters and allies.
I guess Iran's missile and drone production, and general repairs to damage from bombing, can proceed more quickly, because of personnel's proximity, and relatively shorter supply lines from Russia and China (not to mention Pakistan).
In contrast, I guess that the Gulf states' repairs have slower supply lines, and more reliance on foreign personnel who might be reluctant to resume their prior participation in technical support. It will be very interesting to see how many people leave the Gulf states in order to avoid being exposed to potential cut-off of drinking water. Will home countries of migrant workers send ships or planes to evacuate their nationals? "If not, why not?"
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u/Elmodogg Apr 08 '26
Iran's million man army wasn't threatened by 50,000 American troops. And those bases? They've all been damaged. And who knows what local looting has further eroded their condition while the US forces have been away.
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u/emorejahongkong Apr 08 '26
https://x.com/tparsi/status/2041664405193035868
I cannot emphasize this enough.
A new dynamic will be at play when the US and Iran meet in Islamabad to negotiate a final deal based on Iran's 10-point plan:
Trump's failed war has eliminated the potency of American military threats in US-Iran diplomacy.
The US can still issue threats, but everyone will know that they no longer carry much weight.
Essentially, war with Iran was tried and failed.
As a result, negotiations will have to be based on genuine compromises from both sides, rather than coercion from either side.
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u/splodgenessabounds Apr 08 '26
negotiations will have to be based on genuine compromises from both sides, rather than coercion from either side
As u/penelopepnortney points out, there's a lot of hopium re: the US behaving itself. Worse, there's a 3-way going here, with that cunch of bunts.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
Links to previous threads are in the "War with Iran" compilation, which can be found in the sidebar.