r/WayOfTheBern • u/penelopepnortney • Apr 09 '26
Thread #17 for Comments and Updates on the Ongoing War by Israel/US Against Iran
## Update
Thread #18 started: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sjnjhw/thread_18_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/?
Continued from Thread #16: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sff95h/thread_16_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/?
We start a new thread when the number of comments tops 200 because the thread can get a bit unwieldy to navigate.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Nima R. Alkhorshid: Trump Orders FULL Blockade on Iran – Talks COLLAPSE, Will This Spark WAR? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_pARqrMYMY - 52:27
Rachel Blevins, IRGC WARNS US NAVY: DON’T GET TRAPPED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AFTER TRUMP ORDERS NAVAL BLOCKADE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60kpvGrJ-xU - 20:12
War on Iran sends US diesel to record highs, pushing truckers to the brink https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuDxQztZ6io - 2:19
Estonia Refuses to Seize Russian Tankers, Warns of Military Escalation in Baltic Sea https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-V3b6mQ6L8 - 4:36
"‘I’ll Die Here in My House’: In Southern Lebanon, Many Simply Can't or Refuse to Flee
I drove through the destroyed villages of southern Lebanon, speaking to several families who are risking their lives to stay in the area as Israel escalates its bombing and ground invasion." https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxnTtgMvJO2gwJAGyVtopefUJ1Kp-co3wY
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Katie Halper, Iran-U.S. Talks FAIL With Pakistani Professor Junaid Ahmed and Maryam Wattoo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1skfCoxm47A - 53:53
Mario, IRAN NEGOTIATIONS JUST FAILED, WHAT'S NEXT? - w/ JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0PFJy8i2z0 - 31:21
US blockade of Hormuz would be a ‘strategic mistake’, warns former Iranian nuclear negotiator https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHJJGtw39TE - 7:22
The Cradle, Under cover of talks, Washington launches Deception Op in Hormuz https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmrQOFNe0qY - 72:47
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
The Cradle, Under cover of talks, Washington launches Deception Op in Hormuz
That's THREE TIMES the US has done this. THREE!!!!!
There is no way that anyone with half a brain cell and a modicum of sanity ban blame Iran for any of this. (Also, no way anyone will ever trust the US again.)
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
Alex Krainer to Glenn Diesen April 10th:
I would read exactly zero into the fact that the markets feel optimistic about the ceasefire. As they say, markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.
We have to always go back to the ultimate incentives for war in the first place, the conquest of collateral. The Strait of Hormuz, the clerical regime in in Tehran, the nuclear program, etc. are all pretexts. The ultimate reason is that Iran is fifth or sixth wealthiest nation in terms of natural resource wealth, they're estimated to have about $35 trillion in natural resource wealth. Installing maybe Reza Pahlavi on top of the government, that natural resource wealth would become collateral of western banking cartels and $35 trillion could go a very long way to refloat the system which is fraudulent and currently imploding upon itself.
This is ultimately always the reason for war. This is why all wars really are bankers wars and why they will never give up, because for the bankers it's either bringing new collateral into the system or their whole system will implode. They don't know how to do anything else; they just pull money out of thin air, lend it to us at interest, and then collect services on those debts.
We already know that while they were negotiating with the Iranians in February, they were sending weapons to the Kurds to infiltrate Tehran and to prepare a color revolution. Now there are reports about a large surge in American troops in the region. They need time to prepare that ground invasion, and I think that's why the US asked for a 45-day ceasefire; the Iranians agreed to a two-week ceasefire under certain conditions [which we now know has failed].
There's another significant vulnerability to European economies: most of the global trade is still conducted in US dollars and under conditions of distress European banks have had difficulty with dollar liquidity. The US Federal Reserve has helped them out by creating these very large swap lines so that Europeans can access dollar balances to conduct foreign trade. But all these swap lines could be cancelled at any time and European bankers are extremely worried about this. If they lost it and had to buy dollars at market prices, the euro could collapse.
I thought that Saudi Arabia would have wizened up to what Kissinger said, that being a friend of the US can be fatal, because they've been on the receiving end of some very nasty stabs in the back from the UAE and Israel, and the Greater Israel project includes a very large chunk of Saudi Arabia. But Saudi Arabia has more than a trillion dollars sitting in the US Federal Reserve Bank and that money could be at risk of seizure if they chose the wrong side in this war.
This is the Mackinderian politics that goes back probably quite a bit longer than a hundred years, this system of constantly using war and intrigues to pit power against power to keep them all weak and to dominate everything. They never stop, it's a malignancy that never rests, it's always looking for new targets to attack which is why we're in this state of permanent warfare now.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
and $35 trillion could go a very long way to refloat the system
For how long?
Their addiction/greed is the problem. Once they have all the resources on the planet, they'll need all the resources in the solar sytem, but even those won't be enough.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said in remarks to Iranian television that Trump’s behavior is typical of a defeated president. He added that the Americans attempted a show of force yesterday, trying through what he described as a deceptive operation to carry out movements in the Strait of Hormuz, but ultimately failed again and were unable to influence the course of negotiations. .... https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkxoe2sW_5VZEc8SWxpmnBZNOVQtmq0-FXM
Wang Yi Chinese FM, leading the Chinese diplomatic affairs:
"We want peace & stability in the world. We are not happy how US delegation tried to highjack talks with unreasonable demands. China firmly stand with Iran. We will lend them help if asked." https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxEKAbepu6sancauPbUv-rwRFto_xx1PHJ
BREAKING: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that “any miscalculated move will trap the enemy in the deadly whirlpools" of the Strait of Hormuz after Trump ordered a US naval blockade of the strategic waterway. https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxtOEPpo-MSI3znqscjHyfa1ORcehevz0z
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
We are not happy how US delegation tried to highjack talks with unreasonable demands. China firmly stand with Iran. We will lend them help if asked."
And this is how you do it.
Western countries, take note.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Danny Haiphong, Iran REPELS Two US Destroyer in Hormuz, 'Peace' Talks COLLAPSE – Trump RESTARTS War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=300AFO3TUek - 59:33
Mario, U.S. - IRAN NEGOTIATIONS FAILED, TRUMP BLOCKADES STRAIT - w/ Dimitri Lascari (from Lebanon) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvzwQOFotak - 34:28
Is Iran Now a World Power? Chas Freeman on Ceasefire, Israel & West Asia’s Future https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thy3e6ququ8 - 48:15
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
The US/NATO have been targeting Russian oil tankers (meaning Chinese oil) for months - you just haven't been paying attention.
Do not dismiss this piracy as a joke. It has been going on unchecked across the globe, and the Middle Eastern theatre is one part of it.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
BREAKING NEWS LIVE | Iran's Araghchi Holds Press Conference on President Trump & JCPOA | TRUMP NEWS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZQL6Ew0Tig - LIVE
Trump’s 'illegal' Hormuz blockade threat risks global oil shock and wider war, analysts say https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74sGB-q447U - 13:53
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
A Turkish journalist in Pakistan: Abbas Araghchi and Witkoff nearly got into a physical confrontation during talks over the Strait of Hormuz, commenting, “Never threaten the Iranians” https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkx05RURPBrgVMjXCuknqHSbPrjgBd66UB_
Diesen with Prof. Marandi, Negotiations Collapsed - Return to War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRYcvX1eX5k - 25:42
Marandi explains why the negotiations failed and that there will likely be a return to war. In the US media, there are already threats to kill the Iranian leadership and delegation.
Reports of China sending weapons to Iran angers Trump as talks fail in Pakistan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AbIr9ej8KI - 17:13
US President Donald Trump has reacted furiously after CNN reported that China had come to Iran's rescue by helping improve its air defence system. The development came amidst the failure of US-Iran talks in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/11/politics/us-intelligence-iran-china-weapons
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 12 '26
there are already threats to kill the Iranian leadership and delegation.
Just to gauge "appropriate response," what would have happened if two-thirds of the main "negotiation squad" of the US had been killed on their way out of Islamabad? (You know which two I mean)
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
I have wondered why no one's gotten to Bibi yet; hadn't considered that for the US. Does anyone in this administration understand what negotiation is in foreign affairs--not the corporate world or real estate? Do they care? Looks like more arrogant "our way or the highway" behavior. Everyone else will suffer the consequences.
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
As I predicted, the US have just announced a naval blockade against Iran.
They are operating as a Pirate State, and this film is essential viewing to understand Washington's strategy, connecting all the dots from Greenland to Iran and beyond.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
Davis/Deep Dive, BREAKING: IRAN WAR - TRUMP DECLARES NAVAL BLOCKADE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBHNQRpTYOs - 17:06
Iran's One Motive: Get Out From the Cage They're In /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aIVqKXgh6o - 14:12
Saudi Arabia restores East-West pipeline to full capacity after attacks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1d15hzj84pw - 3:28
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
BREAKING: Iran Foreign Ministry Says Talks Held In ‘Atmosphere of Mistrust' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2NIJhEYZSo - 2:55
Gulf states on edge as Trump’s Hormuz threat escalates US–Iran tensions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qumud9cOUFg - 4:22
Istanbul prosecutor files charges against Netanyahu and 34 others https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYvHzHO328s - 3:52
Lebanon protests talks with Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdb_gbQZ-WQ - 1:30
Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are set to begin Tuesday in Washington, with Israel urging Lebanon’s government to take responsibility for disarming Hezbollah — a move widely seen as nearly impossible and one that could risk pushing the country into civil war, which some analysts say would amount to a strategic victory for Israel.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 12 '26
Trump is now saying that he is going to block the strait of Hormuz. You can’t make this shit up. I laughed for a minute straight.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 12 '26
Don't forget the piracy angle -- seizing ships on the high seas.
Apparently, Argentinian fishing boats weren't good enough.
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
The Petrogas-Dollar: The Secret US Strategy Behind the Iran War
UN Journalist Richard Medhurst 🇺🇳 reveals how the Iran War is just one chapter in a US plan to monopolize energy and dismantle the Silk Road. Witness the transition of an empire into a Pirate State that feeds on the cannibalization of its own allies. Medhurst connects the dots from Venezuela, to Iran, to China, to Greenland -- and all roads lead to Washington
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Henningsen and others say the same. Changes the perspective on this whole gambit.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 13 '26
This whole thing is a double edged sword. Trump can't risk price escalation much further than the summer. Iranians are ready to take it to November.
The longer it goes on, the higher the price of gas/petrochemical products and by extension - the higher the inflation for all goods and services. I understand the petrogas argument but the clear risk is demand collapse happening before the industry can enjoy those higher revenues.
This is nothing short of political suicide. MAGA can stay intact when fuel costs $5/gal. It's not a pleasant discussion but the hardcore supporters will still stay with him at those prices. What happens at $6/gal or $7/gal? It becomes clear that he fucked up hard.
There is no there there. Trump's own base revolts at those prices.
We are debating about the politics of it, but the real conversation that we should be having is whether this will be a 2007/2008 type recession or 1930s style depression.
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u/3andfro Apr 13 '26 edited Apr 13 '26
Larry Johnson makes the point in an interview with Mario N. today that LNG orders are placed 9+ months in advance, useful info for all this. Not just O&G but urea, helium, and other necessities for much of Asia are affected by closure of Hormuz.
And not just the midterms; Bibi has an election in Oct., iiirc what I heard today. Only financially comfortable MAGA will stay with Trump. The America First voters have already had it, I think and others say. And as everyone points out, delays are now baked in. Even if the strait opened today, production capacity, pipelines, and ports have been damaged. Someone yesterday showed a graph of how much every GCC country's production is down--all except Oman, where it's up. It took the sensible course and recognized geographic realities in dealing with Iran.
I see a depression if this continues much longer, certainly in other countries and likely here. Would love to be wrong.
The Medhurst map creates a rational rationale for what otherwise looks stupid and short-sighted, and in terms of long-term planning, may well be behind what's going on. Not sure we'll ever know.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 13 '26
Yes, the reality is worse than what is being projected or what economists can reasonably project based on historical data because of AI data center needs.
We are being forced to double our demand for power and are already behind schedule. This is eventually going to be a situation where an immovable object meets an unstoppable force.
If costs keep going up, I probably will need to seriously invest more on gardening, solar generation, farming and just generally being able to survive off grid.
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
What will China & Russia do in response?
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
I guess we'll see. This may be part of an answer? https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/11/politics/us-intelligence-iran-china-weapons
Wilkerson has discussed the US plan to disrupt China's cheaper overland routes--Belt and Road initiative--for its major trade. Iran is a key part of avoiding sea routes, which the US dominates. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Belt-and-Road-Initiative
Last year: China’s Global Belt & Road Infrastructure Drive Hits Record Highs https://highways.today/2025/09/29/china-belt-road-record-highs/
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
I wish we would just stay in our lane and try to make things better for (the vast majority of) US citizens, and do so without making things worse for others.
EDIT: But I guess that's what happens when policy is made by capitalists, who only know theft.
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
Can Iran handle US in the water? Does it need a navy? Will NATO get involved?
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
NATO is supposedly a defensive alliance so based on that alone there's no grounds for them to get involved. Doesn't mean they won't, however; rules are for the plebes, not for the decision-makers.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
If US ships are close enough to Iran's shoreside firepower, probably yes. Iran hasn't stopped producing armaments in its unreachable under-mountain "missile cities."
Iran's reported to have specialized mini-subs designed to protect the Strait, safely tucked away in deep tunnels. They may debut soon.
I don't see NATO getting directly involved in the Gulf; do you?
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
If US ships are close enough to Iran's shoreside firepower, probably yes.
Do they need to get that close to block the ships? I don't think so. US is already doing the blocking for ships from Venezuela.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
Iran has a very long range for its missiles and drones. That's why the Lincoln moved so far away. So I should've noted that some of Iran's missiles well inland have a reach of 2,000 km.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 12 '26
I don't see NATO getting involved; do you?
To answer that properly, I've got to bring in the Rubio Scenario:
- Israel will attack Iran
- Iran will attack Israel and the US
- So the US must strike first.
The reason why that scenario did not have Iran striking first, is that doing that would give them no advantage -- striking back is the better position to be in. Iran knew that; everyone knew Iran knew that.
If the US had waited for Iran to strike the US first (and Iran actually had struck the US first) the US could have invoked Article 5, calling NATO for backup.
But the US did not wait. Possibly because Iran would not have struck first, and simply hit Israel and Israel alone, and the US knew this.
I don't think NATO has grounds for jumping into this. And plenty of excuse to stay out.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 12 '26
The Rubio Scenario:
- Israel will attack Iran
- Iran will attack Israel and the US
- So the US must strike first.
This is called a Sillygism, which Lewis Carroll defines as "the combination of two Prim Misses to yield a Delusion".
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Trump's blocking the Strait reminds me of Chris Christie blocking the George Washington Bridge.
Warning: "What has been seen cannot be unseen" 😳
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
The Petrogas-Dollar: The Secret US Strategy Behind the Iran War
UN Journalist Richard Medhurst 🇺🇳 reveals how the Iran War is just one chapter in a US plan to monopolize energy and dismantle the Silk Road. Witness the transition of an empire into a Pirate State that feeds on the cannibalization of its own allies. Medhurst connects the dots from Venezuela, to Iran, to China, to Greenland -- and all roads lead to Washington
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u/arnott Apr 12 '26
Looks like Richard Medhurst's theory may be the US plan. Or will this lead to World War III?
Donald Trump Hints at Naval Blockade Against Iran As Peace Talks Fail
President Donald Trump has tacitly endorsed the idea of the U.S. imposing its own naval blockade against Iran if the country fails to abide by its terms of the ceasefire reached early this week.
On Saturday night, Trump shared a piece of analysis on Truth Social, published by the digital news website JustTheNews.com, which argued that the U.S. could reprise a strategy used before the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, by restricting the country’s maritime exports and imports to “choke an already teetering Iranian economy.”
How U.S. Wins Economically By Losing Iran & Ukraine Wars! – w/ Richard Medhurst - The Jimmy Dore Show
Summary:
Jimmy interviews journalist Richard Medhurst, who explains the U.S. "pirate strategy" of transitioning from land bases to naval blockades to control global energy supplies, noting that the U.S. is now the world's top oil and LNG exporter and actually profits from high prices even as Americans pay more at the pump.
Medhurst reveals that the U.S. has quietly taken out 40% of Russia's oil export capacity and threatened China's supply while keeping Europe de-industrialized and subservient. He calls the Gulf monarchies "spineless" for betting on the wrong horse, noting they were created by the UK and have no strategic sense. Medhurst concludes that as long as America fights wars on other people's turf, it "implicitly wins" because the military-industrial complex is never threatened, and that Iran must neutralize U.S. naval power to truly end the threat.
Duration: 56:49 minutes.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
if the [Iran] fails to abide by its terms of the ceasefire reached early this week.
Um, didn't Iran abide by the terms until Israel slaughtered more people in Lebanon? In contravention of Iran's 10-point plan which the US agreed to?
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u/splodgenessabounds Apr 12 '26
The New Atlas (Brian Berletic) - US-Iran Talks Collapse: US Floats Iran-China Blockade as US Prepares for Further War on Iran 52:04
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u/splodgenessabounds Apr 12 '26
Consortium News THE WORLD THIS WEEK - w/ Chris Hedges - WILL THE WAR END? 49:07
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 12 '26
Looks like the talks are going to dual because of the US demands.
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u/BigTroubleMan80 Apr 12 '26
Wow. u/penelopepnortney was right. This isn’t a negotiation, it’s an attempt to strong-arm your demands. Iran, diplomatically, said “fuck off”.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 12 '26
You came all the way to Islamabad for this???
You could have just sent us this in an e-mail.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 12 '26
You could have just sent us this in an e-mail.
Or a series of incoherent mutually-contradictory Truth Social "toots".
Note: Truth Social is based on the free-as-in-freedom software Mastodon, so brief messages are traditionally called "toots".
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
I'm still going to call them tweets. Why do they need a different name? Stupid, entitled capitalists.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Breaking: No deal after 21 hours. JD Vance Says US–Iran talks fail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKccF8u9Za8 - 19:42
After 21 hours of intense negotiations in Islamabad, U.S. Vice President JD Vance has confirmed that talks with Iran have ended without a deal.
Despite “substantive discussions,” major disagreements remain—especially over Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader regional tensions.
The U.S. has now presented what it calls its “final offer,” demanding a long-term commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. Iran, however, has not accepted these terms.
That's not how professional diplomacy works. A "framework for an agreement" is the best that could have been accomplished in the allotted timeframe, a process for continuing negotiations, according to experienced analysts. This isn't a TV game show.
As Daniel Davis pointed out (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrqlkfGyzuI), Iran had already agreed not to develop nuclear weapons, and to inspection terms, in negotiations through Oman on Feb. 26. Instead of recognizing that remarkable opportunity to keep Iran non-nuclear--as they claim they want--Trump and Bibi attacked 2 days later during the negotiation process. Iran would be loco to give up nukes again when doing so didn't prevent attacks just 6 weeks ago. The US and Israel have instead almost certainly ensured that Iran will develop a nuclear deterrent the US and Israel have proved they need.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
I'm guessing they "failed" because Iran had the quaint notion that "negotiations" involved actual, you know, negotiating.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
They must have expected a failure when they learned who the "negotiators" were: two treacherous operators and a neophyte. bah!
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
I assume they expected nothing, but when they knew who was coming they were certain of nothing. But they're doing it for the global audience and because they have integrity.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
Compare anything Araghchi says to anything from Trump, or now Vance. <eyeroll>
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 12 '26
Can we get a copy of what the US's "final and best offer" actually was?
All of it, not just a description of parts of it?5
u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
I wish. Maybe tomorrow? BlabberTrump will probably lay it out in a self-promoting distortion eventually to show how stupid he'll say Iran is not to cave to US military dominance and kiss his... ring. I wonder how much of what comes out of his mouth is his carney ringmaster style, how much he really believes vs. tries to sell, and if he believes it, if that's because he's being spoon-fed only what the evil genies (neocons and warhawks) want him to hear, or he's tuning out what he doesn't want to hear. The other possibility: some of his marbles have gone AWOL.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 12 '26
Trump will probably lay it out in a self-promoting distortion eventually to show how stupid he'll say Iran is not to cave to US military dominance and kiss his... ring.
I think I would rather see the copy actually handed to the Iranian negotiators.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
From Chas Freeman to Nima in yesterday's podcast (about 59 min.):
Nima reported that an hour ago, the South Korean representative and the Qatari Bank announced that Washington has authorized the release of $7 billion of Iranian assets in Qatar in the South Korean account.
[Wikipedia: "Iranian frozen assets in international accounts are calculated to be worth between $100 billion and $120 billion. Almost $2 billion of Iran's assets are frozen in the United States...As of January 2021, Iran had frozen assets in the following countries: $7 billion in South Korea; $6 billion in Iraq; $20 billion in China; $1.5 billion in Japan; $1.6 billion in Luxembourg."]
Also, the Israeli media outlet Hayom reported there will be an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that they'll announce tomorrow. Per Freeman, this is significant because Hayom is financed by the Adelson family and is basically propaganda support for Netanyahu.
Other remarks by Freeman:
Iran clearly regarded the American ability to call off Israeli aggression against Lebanon as a decisive indicator of whether the United States really is serious about an end to this war. If - as appears to be the case - the White House has leaned on Mr. Netanyahu, that is very good.
Pakistan was authorized to become the mediator after consultation with Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This group of four has a lot of potential as we've discussed before. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew to Beijing and the joint Pakistani-Chinese announcement appears to have been an important factor in enabling Pakistan to achieve what I think is a make-believe ceasefire. It's a lull in the fighting, the talks tomorrow morning in Islamabad will determine whether this becomes a real ceasefire.
Witkoff and Kushner are in Islamabad because Trump trusts them. He probably doesn't trust JD Vance, who was opposed to the war and who's also his successor in waiting if Trump is removed through impeachment or the 25th amendment. But Vance is there to show the Iranians the US means serious business; you don't send the vice president to this kind of thing, we never have as far as I'm aware.
Iran will not abandon the Palestinian or Lebanese causes. And in the end, if there is ever to be peace in West Asia, Israel must make peace with the Palestinians; not a cold peace, not a truce, but genuine peace and mutually advantageous relationships with its neighbors including Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. .
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 12 '26
But Vance is there to...
Perhaps JayDee is there to prevent him from organizing a 25th Amendment plot.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
A DIRCM system from the US operation in Isfahan fell into Iranian hands.
This is a laser-electronic defense system used to protect large aircraft such as C130 refueling planes. The system works by detecting incoming thermal missile threats, then tracking their trajectory within a fraction of a second, directing laser interference at the missile's heat seeker, causing the missile to deviate from its trajectory and move away from the aircraft after losing tracking capability. https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugkx_AN_EMP3GeJO8wvrsXpuvEB63V3KaSOZ
Chris Norlund, World isn't buying Trump's peace deal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hl4fqUaqcI0 - 13:24 - See intro with a clip trolling Trump. Norlund shows story saying talks in US between Lebanon and Israel have been postponed and moves on to other news.
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
Hundreds in Israel protest Netanyahu's "never-ending wars" in the Middle East https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nECmcNgoDwk - 1:18
Hundreds of Israeli anti-government protesters rallied in Tel Aviv on Saturday at Habima Square, against Benjamin Netanyahu's government and called for an end to all the wars by Israel in the Middle East....
"Netanyahu and Trump promise us the reality of a never-ending war, if not in Gaza, then in Iran and if not in Iran, then in Lebanon. And when there will be a ceasefire in Lebanon, we will go back to Gaza again," a protester, Uri Weltmann said.
“Israel’s Conventional Army Has Been Defeated” – Prof. John Mearsheimer On Iran War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIUdCjzSMEA - 21:39
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
Katie Halper clip, Iran CALLED Israel’s Bluff - Special Ops Vet https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFLGZAns65g - 14:26
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Iran establishes dominance over Strait of Hormuz, diplomatic talks with US https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Lzo18mxS2g - 12:55
At the end of the first day of the Iran-US diplomatic talks in Pakistan, the Islamic Republic released its four red lines for any talks to move forward in the right direction. A senior member of the Iranian parliament also released a video, rejecting Donald Trump's claims on the Strait of Hormuz
America’s Suez Crisis (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RKEjfIDEys - 50:21
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
From the first one:
US military (CENTCOM) has claimed two of its warships have passed through the strait and had begun clearing mines from the waterway, a claim that Trump repeated and Iran has denied.
(are these people stupid? /rhetorical question)
In the US, the Democrats (tweet from House Foreign Affairs Committee) have questioned the participation in the talks of two people "whose last 'diplomatic' effort was cover for starting this pointless and costly war."
(gotta say, this one surprised me)
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
I think they smell midterm advantage and will grab at any "Ds good, Trump & Rs bad" TPs they can get. Though some may mean it, without thought of jockeying for political advantage.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
You've explained it exactly, of course. And surprisingly your last positive remark sounds more typical for me. In this case, though, I can only say, "pardon me while I guffaw."
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u/3andfro Apr 12 '26
I did put "may" in ital....
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
Yep. I was commenting more on my cynicism than anything else. I held out for decades but it's starting to take its toll.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
ETA: This relates to u/ppnortney's post earlier: https://old.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/1sh2pma/thread_17_for_comments_and_updates_on_the_ongoing/oflsv1x/ - Why Trump and his cronies see a win in Strait of Hormuz toll fee paid in crypto (esp. as the USD's dominance declines):
https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-markets-bounce-trump-delays-deadline-for-iran
https://www.democracydefendersfund.org/crypto
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/22/sec-crypto-regulations-trump-family
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
US-Iran talks : Analysts weigh nuclear rights, sanctions and regional risks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiCvslyHQk4 - 10:49
JUST IN: Trump Says 'Whether We Make A Deal Or Not Makes No Difference To Me' Amid Iran Talks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRAcozfrAWk - 46 secs - Sounds as if Trump's ready to walk away and leave the rest of the world to clean up the mess he and Bibi made. They shat; everyone else who uses the dog park will have to bring the poop bags and clear the paths.
ETA: Davis and Scott Horton speak to exactly that at 33:43 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxsRlFcGi_k
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
I think Patrick Hennsingen has it pegged: the US oil & gas and the other monied interests that make up Trump's base, not to mention Trump and his family and cronies, profit from the reduction in the global oil supply. Add to that how WH insiders are scoring big Wall Street profits based on knowing what Trump is about to announce and placing their bets accordingly.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
Hopefully after this, we can crack down on all DC insider trading.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
Dream on, hon.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
Well, we all have coping mechanisms. :)
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
I hear ya!! I have to have a reason not to pull the covers over my head and just stay in bed permanently.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 12 '26
Oxygen deprivation is harmful.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 12 '26
Dain bramage..
(h/t Bob Nelson, in only standup routine of his I thought was funny - in fact it's hilarious)
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
US–Iran talks enter CRITICAL phase, strait of Hormuz dispute dominates Islamabad negotiations https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkBDVGczQZg - 6:24
Iranian Vice President Aref:
🔸“If we negotiate in Islamabad with representatives of 'America First', it's possible to reach an agreement that will benefit the world.
🔸However, if we negotiate in Islamabad with representatives of 'Israel First', no agreement will be reached and we will be forced to continue our defense with greater vigor.” https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxrAGP4CXGaYvOvi0PHZ39HaISiiLrkgJq
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 11 '26
Ouch, that'll leave a mark.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
If anyone in the upper tiers of US or Israeli gov is shown such statements. I hope they are and it feels like the bitch-slap it is. In terms of the US and Israel, the debate continues about which is the bitch.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
the debate continues about which is the bitch.
If Israel still exists after this, I'd like the answer to this. (Or, perhaps it's someone behind the scenes running both.)
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
I'm seeing more analysts say it looks as though this admin. is finally leaning on Bibi--the first US attempt to rein in Israel's regional violence in this century.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 12 '26
Better late than never. I, however, support Iran's opinion on this. I don't want to be back here again in the next 20-some years.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
Patrick Henningsen to Danny Haiphong April 11th (about 44 min.):
Pete Hegseth is not even qualified to lead a platoon in the US military. He was kicked out of the DC National Guard, has all sorts of personal problems, his rap sheet is unbelievable. How on earth was he even confirmed for that position? Well, the Israel lobby instructed US senators to vote for his confirmation. They wanted a religious ideologue with a compromised past because he'll do whatever he's instructed to do.
Trump's tantrum threatening civilizational annihilation of the Iranians came on the heels of his Jimmy Carter debacle, the rescue operation that was cover for an attempt to grab enriched uranium out of Isfahan. The administration's attack on the Vatican after the pope rebuked Hegseth for invoking Jesus like the bombing of Iran is some holy act has created a schism now in American conservative politics. And if you're trying to force the Italian leader to choose between the Vatican and MAGA it's not a contest. Now Meloni and the Italians are talking about opening up diplomatic relations with Tehran. Same with Spain and now Trump is threatening Spain.
All this talk by Trump about leaving NATO never made sense, NATO is the foundation of US power projection through half of the globe. It's how the US is able to get around Congress and do things unilaterally under the fake banner of NATO, the greatest tool for US imperialism after the Second World War. But Joe Kent tweeted out yesterday, "This talk of NATO is to withdraw the US either temporarily or permanently so that Israel can attack Turkey" and that makes perfect sense. Remember former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett saying that Turkey is the new Iran.
The headline you showed earlier says it all, which is that Iran's won and everyone else has lost. But who else has won? US oil and gas, same as with the Ukraine proxy war. This goes back to a very old neocon plan, the Clean Break, where if they could throttle global petroleum then they'd be able to contain China and keep other peer competitors down. And it makes the Venezuela play more understandable, as a stepping stone to throttle global oil and gas and then ride out the storm with US muscle.
I personally think Pakistan self-deployed on mediating the ceasefire, that it wasn't because China urged them to. First, there's a sort of kindred spiritual connection between Pakistan and Iran, they're both Islamic republics. They're different in terms of which branch of Islam each country practices but there's a substantial Shia population in Pakistan and they're very politically active. And in the last couple of months, Israel said a nuclear-armed Islamic government cannot be allowed to exist so I think Pakistan sees this as existential - if Iran falls, they're next. And while Pakistan is a major partner with China's Belt and Road, it's also a major partner in terms of the middle corridor projects through Iran and the future of east-west economic routes.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Nima with Patrick Henningsen: If US-Iran Talks FAIL, China READY to Do THIS (Huge Shift) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzaMmOeTAVo - 59:26
Trump has ejected and discarded his own support base. He's thumbed his nose to MAGA this week. He's basically called them all low IQ idiots. His remaining base is Wall Street--thieves who are doing call options and put options on oil and stocks according to what Trump puts on his Truth Social. The other part of his base is big oil, big fracking LNG, big AI, and big defense. There's no people in that base anymore; there's no more populist support....
The results are pretty predictable, because all those big players want war, instability, a choked supply on the energy market so they can take advantage of higher prices, and they can retrench and monopolize geographical locations that they previously didn't have consolidation over. But they do now.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 11 '26
He's basically called them all low IQ idiots.
Well Trump, how else could they have voted for you?
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
I know independents who voted for him on the slim hope, which they recognized as such, that he meant "America first" and no new wars. They weren't going to vote for Harris or for a 3rd-party candidate and would've stayed home otherwise. The MAGA base from Trump I is another matter, imo.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
The first phase of in-person talks is over; US-Iran delegations are now exchanging written texts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV5K-lzpe_k - 6:08
ETA: Nima stated yesterday that Iran will not negotiate directly with the US delegation but through intermediaries, presumably the Pakistanis. Comment made early in this interview with Chas Freeman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFoKpqMTpq8 - That interview was useful background to these talks. Long but full of info and analysis on Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf states, the US.
At ~14:50 Freeman talks about how Witkoff and Kushner completely "discredited themselves as envoys."
At ~36 mins, he discusses the world's altered view of Israel, which he says has forfeited its "right to exist" by its barbarous treatment of non-Israelis. "If it wants to exist, and I'm sure it does and hope it will, it must make peace with the Palestinians, with its neighbors, including Iran, but also including Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Everything in the Middle East in the end boils down to the Palestine problem." (much more about Israel, its lawlessness and destruction of international law, and instigation of violence in the region) "If you judge anti-Semitism by who does the most harm to the Jews, Netanyahu is the biggest anti-Semite in history."
Europe will not be buying large numbers of US defense products in future and will work toward developing its own MIC. Similarly in the Gulf, the meeting in Islamabad with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan was in part to arrange some sort of peace in West Asia, But it was also to provide a basis for expansion of the Saudi-Pakistani defense pact to develop a locally independent military industrial capacity that would reduce and maybe eliminate dependence on the US and on Europe for weaponry. (not easy; will take time, but the four countries have what they need, with Chinese input, to form the basis of Southwest Asian military industry)
Nobody's won this ("utterly disastrous") war, but we know who's lost.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
Max Blumenthal on Judge Napolitano Apr. 9th:
Some White House insider has placed a close to $1 billion bet on the price of Brent crude going down as Donald Trump sent oil prices tumbling by announcing his acceptance of Iran's 10-point plan as a starting point for negotiations.
But the more revealing part of this was how the US government, looks like the State Department, had provided Pakistan's leader, Shabbaz Sharif, with the framework or the terms that were agreed upon for the ceasefire as a draft and Sharif or someone in his office posted the draft including the header that said "terms for Sharif" on X, which they then edited. These terms explicitly included Lebanon as part of the ceasefire.
So what does Israel do? Commits one of the worst massacres in history in Lebanon, massacring over 250 people, wounding over 1,200 people. They were bombing areas where opponents of Hezbollah live. They killed a famous Lebanese poet and her husband. Entire families were killed inside their homes. They bombed a funeral in a cemetery with a 500 pound bomb. They attacked civilians explicitly, like it was a performative slaughter.
The US is sheltering its F-35s at the Nevatim air base and some other key aerial assets at Ben Gurion International Airport. When you see Nevatim air base come under attack it's often from a Khorramshahr missile with cluster warheads. The censorship is so extreme we don't know if the F-35s have been hit but we have to ask why did an F-15E go down in Iran if the F-35 is supposed to be sort of the undefeatable stealth aircraft, could it be because they've lost several of them on the ground? Again, we don't know. This is up to OSINT open source sleuths and other reporters. Why is Planet Labs, the major satellite imaging company that contracts with the Pentagon, refusing to release images of the region? It's because they're hiding losses on the ground.
(on the NYT piece about administration staff saying they were opposed to the war) We subsequently learn from this report that Netanyahu actually went into a situation room briefing with the head of the Mossad behind him and he sat at the head of the table and Trump sat to the side which is very unusual. And Netanyahu told Trump, "Iran is a week away from a nuclear weapon. You must let us go in. Iran will start attacking the United States soon and we need to kill Iran's leader and once we decapitate its leadership then the Iranians will rise up in the streets and it will be a quick lightning blitzkrieg, regime change will take place overnight." Trump nodded his head but Rubio, CENTCOM, Chief Dan Caine, JD Vance, even Susie Wiles, who had worked on Benjamin Netanyahu's 2020 campaign, said this is absolute bullshit. They all said that but none of them stood up to Trump because they're all yes men and women.
As the Financial Times just reported, the Strait of Hormuz tolls are being paid through cryptocurrency. And I know Trump is trying to get in on the action because all he cares about is enriching himself. So he would want World Liberty Financial to be one of the conduits for crypto, this is the one of the corruption channels that's presided over by Trump's sons and the Witkoff sons; as well as Tether in which Trump's commerce secretary Howard Lutnik owns I think a 5% stake and his son essentially oversees all the business dealings of Tether in El Salvador. Tether is the main stable coin. Ironically this would consolidate Iran's strength and recognize it as a legitimate powerful country among the community of nations, and it would mean that Iran had achieved sanctions relief.
Iran is moving out of the diplomatic isolation that's been imposed on it for 47 years. They have a key channel to Pakistan. They're opening up diplomatic channels all around the world because everyone has to deal with them in order to have an economy. Spain is opening up an embassy in Tehran. France is moving to open up a diplomatic channel to Lebanon to include it as part of any ceasefire deal.
Trump has even alienated the Iranian ex-pats from Westwood L.A. and suburban Washington DC who were cheering for this war because they now see that Trump wants to destroy all of Iran. Their leader Reza Pahlavi, the clown prince based in Potomac, Maryland, who has not been to Iran since he was a small boy, just unfollowed Donald Trump on Twitter X.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
Some White House insider has placed a close to $1 billion bet
They need to be named and shamed. (And prosecuted.)
Their leader Reza Pahlavi, the clown prince based in Potomac, Maryland, who has not been to Iran since he was a small boy, just unfollowed Donald Trump on Twitter X.
This is hilarous.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
Patrick Henningsen just made that point to Danny Haiphong (I'm about to post some excerpts related to Iran separately):
After November, you're looking at a potential deluge of investigations, impeachment hearings, all sorts of things. So, there's a lot of financial scandals that are just waiting to be ripped open.
I think he's right about the investigations, etc, but whether they end up being more than just partisan political theater is anyone's guess.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
Anyone's guess? Not really. Partisan political theater is the only thing the modern US Congress does anymore. They haven't been a functioning government body for years.
A mere figurehead, like the Roman Senate during the Empire.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
You're right, of course. I was just trying to leave a slight opening for optimism because I've learned never to say never.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
I think he's right about the investigations, etc, but whether they end up being more than just partisan political theater is anyone's guess.
I wonder if Martha Stewart will be the last high-profile American to go to jail for insider trading. :(
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26
I think he's right about the investigations, etc, but whether they end up being more than just partisan political theater is anyone's guess.
Considering the recent report that came through here about Pelosi making millions off oil futures.... I would guess that some of it will be "off the table."
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
Useful Idiots, "DESPERATE”: Pepe Escobar Slams Israel & UAE in Iran War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDhqQiGUP8 - 10:40
BreakThrough News, Why Iran Doesn’t Trust Trump’s Ceasefire | Dimitri Lascarus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQkyvpl2cyU - 16:20
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Mario N., US - IRAN NEGOTIATIONS BEGAN IN PAKISTAN - w/ Col. Daniel Davis, David Gibbs, Malcolm & K. Bitar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMDs9B-vOAE - 3 hrs 50 mins
ETA: I find Mario increasingly scattered and useless on input but he has worthwhile guests.
US IRAN TALKS: Who Are the Crazy Ones Here? /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrqlkfGyzuI - 25:59
Deep Dive Intel Briefing: What We Learned This Week 4/11/2026 Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxsRlFcGi_k - 38 mins
Plane bringing Iranian delegation to talks carried photos of children killed in US attack on Minab school: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hQ-dLFyiYz4 - 19 secs
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Rachel B., BREAKING: U.S. DESTROYER HALTS STRAIT OF HORMUZ BREACH + ISLAMABAD TALKS BEGIN | Foad Izadi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4Rc8nInb-s - 33:01
Glenn Diesen with Max Blumenthal: ‘Israel First’ in Iran War Sparks MAGA Civil War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVmTEA9ViNU - 40:26
The Duran, Beyond Ceasefire: How Hormuz Crisis Cascades Into Global Recession w/ Stanislav Krapivnik https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AAl0ycBwVo - 50:49
Sean Foo, US AI Bubble POP Gets TERRIFYING While Russia Corners American LNG Trade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-JqdTL6Jjs - 13:46
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u/BigTroubleMan80 Apr 11 '26
17 threads so far.
So much has happened. So much to make commentary on. What a time to be alive.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Mario with Trita Parsi, Iran WON'T Abandon Lebanon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGL8lwTGXpE - 11:04
Danny Haiphong with Patrick Henningsen, Trump in FULL PANIC MODE in Islamabad, Iran BROKE U.S. Empire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AmQSOMQxOk - 44:16
Patrick Henningsen discusses why Trump holds no cards as his negotiating team stares down the abject humiliation of defeat and disaster brought on by their war on Iran.
Nima with Prof. Ted Postol: The US Lost Quietly. Iran Just Proved It. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTYee3NaY8Q - 44:01
The interview examines rising Middle East tensions amid a proposed ceasefire, highlighting deep disagreements between political and military strategies. It argues that long-term regional instability stems from past foreign interventions and failed diplomatic decisions, including the collapse of nuclear agreements. The discussion portrays current leadership decisions as escalating conflict rather than resolving it, warning that continued warfare risks wider regional and global consequences. Militarily, it claims shifting technology—especially drones, missiles, and satellite intelligence—is changing the balance, making traditional defenses less effective. The conversation concludes that public opinion, particularly in the U.S., is shifting against the war, potentially forcing major political and strategic changes toward de-escalation.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 11 '26
It looks like gas theft is occurring now in the US.
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u/Centaurea16 Apr 11 '26
Shades of 1973.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
You think the government is going to try to push carpooling again?
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
Trump in a bathing suit advising us to make do without air conditioning this summer?
Trump in a sweater recommening we turn our heat down next winter?
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u/Centaurea16 Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
The 1973 oil crisis was when automakers began including locking gas tanks as standard equipment on all vehicles.
Prior to that time, there was no need to lock your gas tank, because there was little gas theft.
During the 1973 crisis, which included gas rationing, you literally could not buy gasoline except in limited amounts and on certain days. People were running out of fuel and siphoning it from other people's gas tanks.
ETA: It could well be that the US government will attempt to use the current situation to enact certain policies, such as carpooling. There's a well known globalist objective to create "15 minute cities" and discourage vehicle usage.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
Except carpooling and other similar measures are in full and flagrant contradiction of the ethos of this administration and its backers.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
I was too young to worry about buying gas back then, so had no idea it was rationed! Just remember carpool lanes being added to freeways.
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u/Centaurea16 Apr 11 '26
I kind of liked those "high occupancy vehicle" lanes. They made travel a lot quicker for those of us who carpooled. Some urban areas still have the HOV lanes.
It's hard to tell what the state and federal govts will try to do with this current situation. We're in a much different world now. There was governmental corruption back then, but our "leaders" still had a basic level of competency that isn't there now.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
I lived in DC then and knew more than 1 person who had an inflatable "passenger" to be able to use the HOV lanes.
I also remember when a name was attached to this practice, years later: https://www.npr.org/2008/05/22/90700559/slugging-to-work-anonymous-ride-sharing
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
but our "leaders" still had a basic level of competency that isn't there now.
Not to mention, back then business lobbying wasn't really a thing. I think that changed in the 70s and they've helped bring us the wonderful country we have now.
The idea of "15-minute cities" is actually a good one. But the US doesn't do urban planning that way - the US does urban planning to benefit capitalists. (The Koch brothers worked to ensure a light rail ballot measure failed in Nashville sometime last decade. :/ )
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
IRAN'S 2 REQUIREMENTS FOR TALKS: release frozen assets and ceasefire in Lebanon (REPOST from below without the link I think was auto-banned):
This story publishes at 6:15 PM EDT, Friday April 10. Within the past 60 minutes, the United States RELEASED $6 Billion in "Frozen" Iranian assets, and directed those in possession of the funds, Qatar and South Korea, to effectuate the transfer of those funds as soon as practicable.
Whether or not that happens now, on a Friday after all markets closed, or before the resumption of hostilities, remains to be seen. Iran is wary that this is simply another US ploy, and that the US may renege on it. The world is now watching for that, too.... https://www.coreinsightsintl.com/post/flash-u-s-releasing-6-billion-in-frozen-iran-assets
Lebanon says first direct contact with Israel has taken place, more talks at State Dept agreed.... https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxysPTGrVeGECUacU71wFkBVUcT5T5Q34e
Israel vows to continue fighting Hezbollah but agrees to talks with Lebanon https://www.npr.org/2026/04/09/nx-s1-5779000/iran-war-updates
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
From Novara Media:
The UK flew a drone over Baalbek, Lebanon as Israel massacred 18 people and injured 28 others there on Wednesday, flight data shows.
The flight, first reported on by independent journalist Matt Kennard, left the RAF Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus at 8:22am local time, just hours before Israel’s massive and intense bombardment of civilian areas across Lebanon, which killed at least 303 people, including many children.
The General Atomics Protector RG1 drone circled in the sky near Baalbek for hours, data from AirNav Radar shows. The model is equipped with missiles and bombs and can be used for “surveillance, search and rescue, and armed operations”, according to the RAF’s website.
Prime minister Keir Starmer has repeatedly, and falsely, claimed that the UK’s only involvement in the war in the Middle East since 28 February is defensive.... https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxTKjr47msBgMPku4YQGJhv4LJ8j1dhar9
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
Redacted with Trita Parsi, Analyst WARNS Saudi-Israel Deal Could IGNITE Middle East War, Dragging the US Into Chaos https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sjnIpxWRhE - 8:53
Has America frozen Israel out of ceasefire talks with Iran? | The Economist https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBFLW1UgTYg - 7:21
BreakThrough News, Analyst: ‘Iran Will Never Give Up On Lebanon’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et-26ZV2hkc - 26:56
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
Interesting take by Parsi and I hope he's right, that there will not be an agreement between the US and Iran but there will be a non-agreement status quo with Iran continuing to control the strait and US pulling out of the war.
I don't agree with him that Saudi Arabia will feel compelled to normalize relations with Israel, It would still be problematic with the genocide continuing in Gaza and expanding into Lebanon and I can't see what benefit there would be to the Saudis. It would make a lot more sense for them to pursue the rapprochement with Iran that China brought about and work with the other Arab states to bring about stability, security and collaboration, as China and Russia will be advising them to do.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
I hope he's right about the Saudis. After Trump's gratuitous insult of MBS, the Saudis announced this: https://x.com/i/trending/2039094623638073712 (another source; not sure either is reliable: https://x.com/AdameMedia/status/2039051143829930135) They also announced they will not proceed with a pipeline through Israel. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1ti5bj9bx Instead, they're maxing out the pipeline through Jordan and Syria, bypassing Israel. That not only cuts Israel off from the fuel but from lucrative access/transit fees.
A couple of analysts have suggested the Saudis, Oman, Qatar, and maybe even Egypt will bow to inflexible geographic realities and move toward more normal, mutually beneficial relations with Iran, leaving UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait to struggle and possibly disappear.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
I hope Saudi Arabia will go this route, it makes a lot more sense from a regional security and economic collaboration standpoint.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
Judge Nap, INTEL Roundtable w/ Larry Johnson & Scott Ritter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loJrBNknVWs - 31:24
Iran Talks NONSTARTER /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84pecP3uEqM - 13:20
A year old but relevant: Arctic Shortcut | Russian Northern Route | What If Iran & Hezbollah Interdict More Chokepoints? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8PJZUiYuSA - 16:20
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
You know, the timing's about to get real interesting...
There's a whole "battle fleet" that left Virginia about a week ago that was said to take "a few weeks" to get to the Persian Gulf...
The War Powers Act gives Trump only until the beginning of June before he is legally required to start withdrawing forces... unless a majority of the House, all of which is coming up for re-election in November, gives him an extension, along with a majority of the Senate...
With the official end of this alleged cease-fire coming on TACO Tuesday the 21st, that will give Trump only a week and a half to act (allegedly) before being in violation of an as-yet-untested Law.
And may have a full, just left port, "battle fleet" at his command.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
Trump will just ignore it. Will Congress make him follow the law? It's shown no signs of being willing to do anything like that so far.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26
But that scenario would enable the Iranians to say that Trump's actions are in violation of International Law, and in violation of US Law as well.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
For any who can benefit from context:
The War Powers Act, officially known as the War Powers Resolution of 1973, is a federal law designed to limit the U.S. president's ability to engage in military actions without congressional approval. It requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces and restricts military engagement to 60 days without congressional authorization.
The War Powers Act has faced numerous challenges, particularly regarding its constitutionality and enforcement. However, no court has definitively ruled on its constitutionality, and presidents have often acted without adhering strictly to its requirements. (Source: AI)
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26
My proposal for fixing the War Powers Act
(what good that will do)
The current phrasing is fine, possibly taking the "60 days" down to 45 or even 30... BUT that phrasing would be only for retaliatory actions, which may require quick and decisive action.
For pre-emptive (elective) attack, however, explicit Congressional pre-approval should be necessary, by roll-call vote, with pre-approval for a limited (30 days) time.
Like you have to get from the insurance company before non-emergency surgery.
Said Congressional roll-call vote revealed to the public within 15 days of the attack, if done(so we can see who approved it) or in 30 days of the vote, if not (so we can see who approved what).
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Republicans in the current Congress repeatedly vote down a war powers resolution and just yesterday blocked another attempt to muzzle Trump's warmongering authority: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/591951/us-democrats-fail-in-bid-to-curb-trump-s-iran-war-powers
[edited] I know too many Dems as well as Rs are keen to try to cream Iran. Loathsome, the lot of 'em. With things as they are in our corrupt system, what's to be done? Write and call "our" Congress critters? I STILL can't find an anti-war demonstration, just the same pointless but SO sincere, geriatric-heavy No Kings sign-waving, which allows my fellow graybeards and graylocks to relive the glory days of believing such displays made a difference, as I once did. I wish I still could.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26
Republicans in the current Congress repeatedly vote down a war powers resolution and just yesterday blocked another attempt to muzzle Trump's warmongering authority
But would they have voted, back in February, for the pre-emptive strike into Iran, knowing that it would probably have resulted in something like this? (As a great many experts did)
During an election year? In a roll-call vote?
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
Good question. Maybe? So few of us have both time and inclination to try to pay attention.
The problem is that new and amended laws have to pass both the House and Senate, and many die in committee, if they make it that far. The War Powers Act became law as a joint resolution, approved by both chambers and signed by Nixon in 1973, a year before he was perp-walked out of the WH. He inherited the Vietnam war and didn't start others, iirc, and he did "open" China--and take the US off the gold standard and abandon the Bretton Woods Accord.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
Maybe? So few of us have both time and inclination to try to pay attention.
The main point of the proposed revision is to get back to Original Purposes, in which the decision of "The US will now be at War" was not the decision of one person, but the majority of a group of (theoretically, politically wise) people. People who would be risking their political careers to do it.
War should be difficult to get into. A War of Choice, even more so.
Apparently actually declaring War is passe, so mid-20th Century.
Making that change (or correction, if you will) now, would be a case of "locking the barn door after the horse escaped," but I am pessimistic enough to think that there may be other horses in that barn so shut the damn door.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
Apparently actually declaring War is passe
Because the president can have us do police actions and whatever else (supposedly; justified with their word salad BS); to declare war you need Congress.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
Your approach has merit. But again, Congress makes laws that affect Congress (and decides its own pay). Too many damn doors need to be shut. At some point, the structure is too unsound to save. Then what? (love me some metaphors)
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26
Your approach has merit. But again....
I did begin with "what good that will do."
What is really needed at this point is a major-Party Presidential Candidate who has, as one of their campaign promises:
- To work with Congress to permanently pull back the Power of the Presidency to the level that it should be at.
Whether they would be able to do that once that Power is at their fingertips would remain to be seen.
But just to have it said out loud would be progress. And would, in these times, probably help them to be elected.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 11 '26
I wonder if Thomas Massie is interested in running. I don't agree with him on a lot, but that might be fine.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26
I mentioned inattentive voters because of this: "During an election year? In a roll-call vote?" :D
A major-party candidate who campaigned convincingly on that plank could win big (depending on the rest of the platform and whether votes reported accurately reflect votes cast).
It's all damn frustrating, which leads to apathy, another boon to TPTB.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 10 '26
That's great information. I know you'll keep track of what actually happens but the rest of us need to do that as well. "Interesting times" in the Chinese proverb sense.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 11 '26
It's not easy to find where a US aircraft carrier actually is.
Best I found was that it was allegedly getting to the Mediterranean in the next couple of days.
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs. Military action will not create space for freedom or times of #Peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
Iran used their leverage to stop the war in Lebanon
Lebanons president says no, continue to kill us.
Cool.
🚨🇱🇧The Lebanese president:
“We do not accept that anyone negotiates on behalf of the Lebanese state.”
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 10 '26
@SaifulA77188378
Without Hezbollah Lebanon would probably be North Israel by now.
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
🚨🚨BREAKING -- UK arms firms have been caught trying to illegally ship weaponry to Israel through Belgium.
The shipment contained "sensitive military equipment" including "lasers, sights, fire control systems, and parts for fighter jets".
It has now been seized by the Belgian authorities following an alert from Declassified, @Vredesactie , & @palyouthmvmt .
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Thursday launched a sharp attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the resumption of his long-running corruption trial on Sunday, linking the legal proceedings to the ongoing regional conflict and calling for a ceasefire that he suggested could hasten Netanyahu's sentencing and subsequent imprisonment.... https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ceasefire-would-hasten-his-jailing-araghchi-jabs-netanyahu-over-corruption-hearing/ar-AA20wIeo
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
Nima with Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s STRATEGY in TATTERS - Trump TAKES OVER https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFoKpqMTpq8 - LIVE
Useful Idiots, US has "Strategic Weakness in Iran" – Ex-State Dept Official https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39Nyvb86J64 - 45:25
The Cradle, Iran's ULTIMATUM: Lebanon Ceasefire + Unfrozen Assets, Or No Islamabad Talks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-AXNg3uiOM - 51:08
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
Dems are just as much of crazy pro-war maniacs as Trump, they only oppose Trump when they fear he might stop a war.
Our government is run by criminals & psychopaths. Picking a team & hating 1/2 the country is what they want you to do & how they win.
No voting our way out of this:
@SenSchumer: "Iran still has its nuclear stockpile. Its nuclear ambitions are still unchecked, if not accelerated…The nations at the world are furious at Trump: the Asians, the Europeans, even the Middle Eastern allies."
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
Its nuclear ambitions are still unchecked, if not accelerated…
Those ambitions were fully checked by the fatwa of the Supreme Leader the Israelis murdered in his home. They were fully checked by the JCPOA Obama negotiated and Trump cancelled in his first term.
They are now UNchecked by the experience of mid-negotiation betrayal by the US and Israel not once, but twice. That experience proves to them and the world they'd be foolish NOT to be rushing to develop nuclear weapons as self-defense deterrence now. Nothing else has stopped Israel and the US; nothing else probably will.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
And yet, their objection to nuclear weapons seems grounded in sincere religious and moral belief. Go figure.
Of course the cretins running the US and Israel are incapable of understanding who they are dealing with.
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u/3andfro Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26
The previous Supreme Leader's fatwa against nuclear weapons and longer-range ballistic missiles included a caveat that they could be pursued if Iran's existence were threatened, as all sensible people agree is this situation now for Iran.
Your last statement is painfully, blatantly true, and the cost is mounting tragically. I don't mean in dollars, though in those, too.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 10 '26
Even if Iran had nuclear ambitions, which they may have after the bombing and assassinations carried out by the US, they've never displayed the genocidal intent Israel has demonstrated toward everyone in the region. And of course, Schumer et al. never mentions the fact that Israel has nukes but has refused to allow inspections and has not signed onto the NPT. I think people are catching on that the rabid dog in the neighborhood isn't Iran.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
IRAN CEASEFIRE Lasts as Long as it Takes to RELOAD /Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8COuwpb3PI -33:56
Nima with Larry Johnson: Iran Just SEIZED Control of the Strait of Hormuz – Ceasefire Already Falling Apart? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huWp7nfVT0o - 55:37
Sean Foo, China Launches World’s Biggest Digital Yuan Bond Sale To Cancel US Assets Globally https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ1niAuy-Y4 - 13:26
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
At least a dozen US military sites across the Gulf region have been so badly damaged by Iran's retaliation to US and Israeli attacks that their presence now creates significantly more vulnerabilities than it does benefits, a slate of Middle East experts argued on Thursday....
"The bases around the region are suffering real damage, and I think it's very unlikely that we're ever going to go back and put our Fifth Fleet back in Bahrain. It's too vulnerable"....
"So in a sense, the entire purpose of 'America's Middle East' has come crashing down [and] we don't have an alternative way yet of articulating or thinking about what might replace it." https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxWOGNIdprwKTl0pPjEpSR9TQbkFvmL3DO
Diesen Clips, Lawrence Wilkerson (clip): The U.S. Will Be Pushed Out of the Middle East https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzXOph1KDQg - 14:25
ETA: Neutrality Studies with Col. Macgregor, US Bases Around Iran Were Crippled and Exposed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ll01evotbA - 9:16
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
"For Netanyahu, Iran Is His Moby D**k": US' Mearsheimer Warns of Unstoppable Escalation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5DskgOaIak - 4:31
Had Bush and Blair been punished for Iraq war crimes, Iran might have been spared | MEE Opinion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fei1PUjNjvI - 5:24
Nima with Prof. Ted Postol: It’s Over” – Israel Faces Total Collapse If This War Continues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AizjSdHvjt8 - 93:14
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u/gorpie97 Apr 10 '26
I believe that Israel can't stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons using their conventional weapons; but I don't think Israel can stop them from acquiring them even if Israel would use nukes.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
EMPOWERING IRAN /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMWlBn1angw - 62:21
Mario with Trita Parsi, Losing Kharg Island Would Be A Catastrophe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u89xofBFDnk - 7:19
France's drone minehunters target Strait of Hormuz https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMTEu5qvZtc - 2:35
Diesen with Alex Krainer: After the Iran War - A New Global Economy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmiG0Gplu9Q - 49:44
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
Don't Expect Too Much From Islamabad Summit By PREM PANICKER
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation.
The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
Key Points
- Strait of Hormuz traffic has nearly halted, severely restricting global oil shipments and disrupting one of the world's busiest energy routes.
- Iran is asserting control over passage, warning of mines and imposing conditions despite claiming the waterway remains open.
- Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have reduced production capacity, compounding supply concerns and tightening global oil availability.
- Oil prices are rising sharply, with analysts warning of further spikes if shipping disruptions in the Gulf persist.
- Diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan aim to stabilise the situation, but major disagreements continue between the United States and Iran.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
Ho Chi Minh was once asked how tiny North Vietnam could possibly prevail against the most powerful military in the world. His prophetic answer (paraphrased):
They will kill many of us. We will kill a few of them. And they will tire of it first.
Trump is apparently tired of fighting Iran. He has figured out that he has nothing to gain personally, and a lot to lose. He's probably tired of Israel treating him as their bitch and is ready to bite them — hard.
I don't see a peaceful solution to the Israel/Iran conflict. For Iran it's existential: they have to keep fighting or they'll no longer exist as a sovereign country. Israel is unwilling to live in peace — they want to take over the entire Middle East. So the only solution is a long war of attrition.
As long as the USA keeps funding and arming Israel the conflict will continue. But Trump has screwed up the petrodollar so badly that the USA may soon no longer have the ability to fund its overseas adventures. Sending piles of cash to prop up our "friends" in the Middle East no longer works if those dollars become worthless.
JMO/YMMV
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
But in this conflict, the economic losses for the aggressor are going to be far more painful and unavoidable than any military casualties. And the economic pain is going to affect every person on the face of the planet, and they'll all be pissed off at the country that caused it...for no real reason.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
Ho Chi Minh (paraphrased):
They will kill many of us. We will kill a few of them. And they will tire of it first.
A more modern paraphrase:
We bet they'll get tired of kicking our asses before we get tired of having our asses kicked.
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 10 '26
I can't remember if it was Larry Johnson or Wilkinson that pointed it out but the whole problem with a war of choice is that the threshold for pain is much lower for the instigator. Even taking small losses become unbearable the longer it goes on.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
It's the mathematics of Siege Warfare:
How long can they afford to be inside vs. how long can they afford to be outside?
One side is home; the other side can go home.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
the other side can go home.
Unless, of course, someone has burned their ships.
H/T The Iliad 👩🏫
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
Cortez burned his ships to encourage his men
-- Clerks, the animated series
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 10 '26
Honestly, it may be an existential crisis for Israel as well. They are not used to people fighting back with proportional force after killing other countries' women and children.
Iran can literally wipe them out just as they do to others and it's making them very uncomfortable.
To your point, if they are not willing to live in peace, there may not be much of an Israel left after this conflict is over. Those settlement expansions won't mean shit if all other parts of Israel are "bombed to the stone age".
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
are "bombed to the stone age".
No need to go that far. It's sufficient to "bomb them to the Middle Ages" by destroying power and desalination plants.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
by destroying power and desalination plants.
I've been thinking about this....
The Iranians seem to be holding off on hurting civilians, either by vestiges of humanity, or being shackled by their religious beliefs.
But what I thought they could do, if their weapons are accurate enough, is instead of destroying the desalinization plants, they destroy the outputs of the desalinization plants as a warning. Cutting off the water for a couple of days (while the output pipes get repaired) instead of months.
We could have destroyed the whole thing, but we didn't.
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
being shackled by their religious beliefs.
I have heard that the Quran allows them to retaliate in kind if attacked, but not to go beyond. So they need for USA and/or Israel to attack first.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
So they need for USA and/or Israel to attack first.
Didn't Iran already have one of their desalinization plants attacked?
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u/Caelian toujours de l'audace 🦇 Apr 10 '26
I think that's true, but I think Iran retaliated against one of the Gulf USA allies.
(Applying Cunningham's Law.)
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 10 '26
We could have destroyed the whole thing, but we didn't.
I think the strike at the Dimona nuclear plant was supposed to show just that.
In the case of Israel, Iran is realizing that they are not dealing with rational actors. Bibi is OK with the world burning as long as he survives and stays out of jail. He is using Iran's restraints to his advantage.
Would not surprise me if Iran's strategy changes and they try to actively kill Yahu to de-escalate. They only need confirmation that his replacement will be more open to keeping Israel in Israel than his predecessor.
Based on the damages done to the region, we are going to see an economic crisis manifest and linger for several years. Not even Iran, China or Russia will be spared from it and the longer this conflict goes, the more likely that the damages become more permanent.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 10 '26
Would not surprise me if Iran's strategy changes and they try to actively kill Yahu to de-escalate.
But if he's dead already, that would have no effect.
Not trying to be funny; I mean maybe he was killed early on and we've only been seeing AI and body doubles. IDK
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 10 '26
You guys are way too optimistic. Evil doesn't die so easily. It clings on to life even if it needs to hang on by a fingernail.
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u/NetWeaselSC Continuing the Struggle Apr 10 '26
I think the strike at the Dimona nuclear plant was supposed to show just that.
They may just have to ring it with strikes to demonstrate what they could have done.
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
Agree 100%. It all comes down to how much China will allow its economy affected by this mess.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 10 '26
How so?
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u/arnott Apr 10 '26
China needs Iran's oil and will put pressure on Iran to end the conflict. China's pressure is the reason Iran is negotiating now.
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u/gorpie97 Apr 10 '26
I didn't think China needed much of Iran's oil - or maybe that's just for energy generation; I don't remember the details and can't watch all the vids posted - even when I want to. (Meaning I may have missed out on further info.)
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 11 '26
I think they get less from Iran than people assume. I've seen some figures but don't recall specifics.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
Analysts also point out that negotiations involving Iran's nuclear program require people knowledgeable about the field and more negotiating skills than anyone on Trump's team possesses.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
Yup.
"Drawing on these accounts, several observers have concluded that the war may have started because of Witkoff and Kushner’s “lack of nuclear knowledge” and because they “lacked the technical expertise to even understand what the Iranians were offering in negotiations.” Indeed, the Trump administration opted against including nuclear experts in the negotiating team, a fact which reportedly confused the Iranians."
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 10 '26
Iran is getting good at these Lego videos.
https://x.com/i/status/2042258125902770272
The sad part? They don't even have to lie to anyone, unlike in Western propaganda. Its an accurate depiction of events.
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u/Elmodogg Apr 11 '26
Those videos (the good ones) are coming from a group of Iranian young people, not the government:
https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-pro-iran-meme-machine-trolling-trump-with-ai-lego-cartoons/
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u/gorpie97 Apr 10 '26
Iran is getting good at these Lego videos.
I think they've always been good! Especially with some of the small details.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26
Another one a sensitive ego would shun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn6aF_h-gkU
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 10 '26
The Saudis are still getting hammered.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 10 '26
Wonder who's behind it. Iran could be, but I don't automatically assume that.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 10 '26
In case you were wondering, oil isn't going to be coming from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea until the end of the fighting.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian Apr 10 '26
Lots of the "pro-war" people don't understand how the sanctions against Iran could fall apart.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 10 '26
@burner671134391
This was baked into the cake when Biden sanctioned Russia in 2022. Such widespread sanctions against such a critical player in the global energy and raw materials markets meant most countries had no choice but to circumvent them somehow.
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u/3andfro Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 10 '26
Reposting this from a thread below for more prominence; from Ro Khanna:
The $17 billion blank check to the right-wing government of Israel failed in the House of Representatives yesterday.... https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_TWHZOivgOM
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u/kifra101 Shareblue's Most Wanted Apr 10 '26
When I read posts like this, it gives an optimistic spin to it but the reality here is probably that the congress AIPAC handlers felt that $17B was too low.
They probably want to give $1T+ to Israel to help rebuild. That's why it didn't pass.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26
Israel's cabinet has secretly approved a record number of new settlements in the occupied West Bank, according to the Israeli news channel i24NEWS. Amid the war on Iran, the government ratified 34 new settlements in a single decision – more than half the total approved during the previous record-setting year of 2025.... https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxtgzzyPqVhtVMKRjx2fiCZac6_kQmBIp0
Mario with Malcolm Nance, NETANYAHU SABOTAGING CEASEFIRE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvBEXoyfgc0 - 52:44
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
Drop Site News, Will There Even Be a “Ceasefire”? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fWAjCioN2I - 18:45
Nima with Andrei Martyanov: Iran JUST SHOT DOWN the War and Drops the Hammer on Israel & GCC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUPUIlvr7lc - 54:34
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
LEBANON NEWS:
President Trump said Thursday that he urged Israel to scale back its military bombardment of targets in Lebanon, with the U.S. State Department later saying it would lead ceasefire efforts between Israel and Lebanon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZoWXNjc4K0 - 4:17
Forbes Breaking News, Israel-Lebanon Peace Talks Could Start Next Week In D.C., Report Says https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPxuV6ChiaY - 2:44
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u/Elmodogg Apr 09 '26
So in other words, go ahead and bomb them, just more slowly. There! That's a ceasefire, isn't it?
Close enough for Trump government work, I guess. And get back to me when Israel honors a ceasefire, ever.
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
I wouldn't risk a shekel on Israel honoring a ceasefire, unless Trump/the US holds the aid and defense supplies hostage to Israeli compliance and means it.
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u/ThrowRA12948262 May I see a whine list, please? Apr 09 '26
If Trump could withhold aide from Ukraine just for an investigation into Hunter Biden, surely he could do it here right?
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u/3andfro Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
afaik, if Congress has allocated aid to Israel, the president can delay it and likely by a lot; not sure he has the authority to cancel it. Congress annually decides who gets what in foreign aid.
So he could. Whether he would may depend on how badly he wants to walk away from this debacle with a win he thinks he can sell and how much he recognizes Israel as a roadblock in doing that.
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u/penelopepnortney Apr 09 '26
Links to previous threads are in the "War with Iran" compilation, which can be found in the sidebar.