More than a dozen patients have had timely surgeries delayed after more than 3000 emails were left unread in an inbox at a major hospital.

An urgent review at Canterbury Hospital, in southwest Sydney, found four patients needing urgent procedures and 12 with semi-urgent conditions had not been allocated dates for elective surgeries within clinically recommended timeframes due to the bungle.

Referrals for the 16 patients were missed while emails sat in the inbox, which was not monitored.

In cases classified as urgent or “category one”, a specialist has recommended an operation take place within 30 days, while the tier below requires procedures to be carried out within 90 days.

“Patient safety and wellbeing remain our highest priorities, and we have worked urgently to minimise any impact on those affected,” a Sydney Local Health District spokesperson said on Sunday.

“We sincerely apologise to these patients and families.”

Admission dates had been urgently allocated to the affected patients and treating surgeons contacted, the spokesperson added.

But Australian Medical Association NSW branch president Fred Betros, who works as a surgeon, said the incident was an extremely concerning situation for the patients involved.

“There is a reason we give timeframes for surgery,” he said.

“If a patient does not receive investigations or treatment in a certain timeframe, it can have devastating repercussions for them and their families.”

Category-one patients might have malignant tumours or be in need of coronary artery bypass grafts, Dr Betros said.

He chided the government for failing to provide funding to boost a health workforce that was drowning under patient need.

“We need more doctors to meet demand, but it cannot come at the cost of support staff who help keep our hospitals running,” he said.

NSW opposition health spokesperson Sarah Mitchell said patients needed immediate care and assurance that referrals were being properly managed across the hospital system.

“This is a basic failure with potentially serious consequences,” she said.

“Patients and their families need confidence that this failure is not happening elsewhere.”

The state Labor government has pledged $400 million to redevelop Canterbury Hospital.

Some 85.6 per cent of elective surgeries statewide were performed on time in the June quarter, up 8.8 percentage points on the same period in 2025.

Health Minister Ryan Park’s office referred queries to NSW Health.

With France entering its terminal phase of mass immigration and cities overrun with rioting migrants burning the place to the ground, how many refugees from France would you support taking into Australia once it’s all over?

Realistically, the French population is huge so we wouldn’t be able to take millions. At the moment we are taking about 1 million migrants every 4 years, so I think realistically we could take in 2 million straight up. It would be very hard on housing though as they’d all be arriving at once

There’s still time for France to be saved but the next elections will be crucial. I think the Australian government should start preparing for mass waves of refugees from European countries just incase

What electorate are you in, and what do you want to pressure your local MP to change at the electorate level before the state election?

I’m in St Albans (Sunshine North), and a few things I’d like to see Labor commit to locally are making sure the Albion Station upgrade actually addresses pedestrian lighting.

Improving bus connections around Sunshine and making sure the surrounding suburbs get the infrastructure and services they need as the area grows.

I’d also like to see a specific target for new social housing in Brimbank, with a timeline for when it’ll actually be built.

I know some of this is already in the works, so I’m more interested in what’s missing from the existing plans than asking for things they’ve already promised.

A gen x’er close to me who has traditionally voted ALP said crime and when I cited the new bail laws they said they wasn’t far enough but also that prison should be rehabilitation. They pointed out what they’d heard from msm. So wants better prisons but also not an obscene amount more but somewhat more.

Fathers a rusted ALP voter who thinks “Australia used to make things, that’s what’s gone wrong”. Mother votes greens since ALP cut the age for parenting pension, she thinks that was picking on an easy target. She used to vote family first over abortion, this issue shifted her. My other sister votes green because she’s gay and they were earlier advocates of equal marriage.

For all these people when I press them on electorate specific issues they each have unique answers.

Friends vary from SAP and Greens to just general left-wing micro’s wanting publicly owned utilities.

When it comes to things that are local what would you like to see your local MP do differently? No go

I’m in st Albans area/western Metropolitan. Freshwater Strategy poll of the state said that cost of living was the leading concern, followed by crime and social order.

EPIC 1 TWO: Ben Roberts-Smith unveils new clothing label | News24

Australia on the verge of “biggest improvement in housing affordability in 50 years”

Detailed new analysis by The Australia Institute reveals the “immediate positive impact” this year’s property tax changes have had on those who’d previously been locked out of the housing market.

It concludes that changes to the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing have “finally cracked the nut of the housing crisis”.

“For the first time in a quarter of a century an Australian government has introduced property tax reform that has actually worked. The data shows that prices are falling and investors are building new homes rather than buying existing homes,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

Key points from The Success of Changes to CGT and Negative Gearing report:

• Property prices have fallen around 5% since March.
• Investor loans for new builds have increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
• Investor loans for existing homes have fallen by 14% year-on-year.

Separate analysis, also published today, reveals that Labor’s tax changes, including a shake-up of the Coalition’s stage 3 tax cuts, have helped nine out of ten Australians.

That analysis shows that the biggest beneficiaries of the stage 3 changes and most recent tax cuts are those under the age of 25, who are, on average, more than $1000 per year better off.

“The original stage 3 tax cuts would have made older, richer Australians even richer and delivered very little for struggling families. The biggest beneficiaries of the revised and subsequent changes are those under the age of 25 and those aged between 25 and 34,” said Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist at The Australia Institute.

Key points from the Who Benefits from Labor’s Tax Cuts report:

• 90% of Australians are, on average, $1340 better off under the revised stage 3 tax cuts.
• Labor’s tax changes have overwhelmingly helped younger people on lower incomes.
• The changes have saved those earning under $150,000 a year $25 billion since their introduction and will deliver $15 billion in savings next financial year.

“Inflation driven by Donald Trump’s war in Iran and huge corporate profits are making life tough, but property tax changes have at least delivered hope for younger Australians who were otherwise facing a lifetime in the rental market,” Greg Jericho said.

“You can’t undo the damage caused by 25 years of awful policy overnight, but we are on track to see the biggest improvement in housing affordability in 50 years.”

“Income tax reform and a fresh round of tax cuts are helping Australians who have been hit hardest by the cost-of-living crisis: those on low and middle incomes,” Matt Grudnoff said.

“The original stage 3 tax cuts were terrible policy which would have helped the richest Australians get even richer more quickly. Labor’s changes provide something of a fair go to the vast majority of taxpayers, preventing many from sliding into poverty.”

Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi has spoken with Yahoo News about why she urged parliament to no longer use the word "invasive" when referring to introduced species.

Wild horses, pigs, deer, cane toads, cats, and foxes are among the biggest threats to native species, and she agrees they need to be managed. 

But she argues this doesn't negate the need to treat them humanely.

And she worries that the language we use to describe an animal can have real-world consequences.

"Language does matter, because how you label animals is how people view them," she said.

"Labelling some animals as feral or invasive obviously creates a negative picture, and it makes it much easier to treat them inhumanely, or to kill them or to poison them.

"So if we are to label animals, then we should do it correctly, because these species labelled feral or invasive are actually introduced to Australia by people.

"These are introduced species, they are sentient beings, and that's how they should be viewed."

On Tuesday, Faruqi told the Senate, "There's no need for labelling introduced species as invasive in a way that blames animals for the man-made problems raised by this motion."

Continuing, she added, "Animals are not villains to be shot, or obstacles to be poisoned to death, the answer to colonialism's legacy is not more violence and more death".

"For decades, successive governments have culled and killed introduced species, and yet native species are in a worse position today."

Elaborating today, she said she used her time to make "a point".

"That's how you start creating change. You put ideas into people's minds who might want to think about it," she said.

"And a few people actually did use the word introduced in their speeches."

She argues it's an "easy distraction" to focus on introduced species and their impact on biodiversity, since it's easier than tackling the extraction of coal and gas and the logging of native forests.

The most common response for reducing populations of introduced species is lethal control.

Helicopter shooting, the use of leghold traps, 1080 poisons and other baits is controversial among many animal welfare advocates. 

However, their use is generally accepted by Australians when pigs, rats, cats, or foxes are being killed, and only causes a stir when it's horses being shot.

Faruqi believes that changing our language will foster greater compassion for these species' welfare, prompting consideration of non-lethal or more humane control measures.

Faruqi's speech came before a vote on a motion introduced by Independent Senator David Pocock calling on the government to fund an updated invasive species management plan.

While her colleagues voted in favour, she abstained. Yahoo understands the decision was based on its focus on lethal control.

The peak environmental body advocating for the control of introduced plants and animals is the Invasive Species Council, and it has no plans to change its name any time soon.

Its policy director, Dr Carol Booth, told Yahoo that the term "invasive" is a technical term used in the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity to describe introduced species that cause harm.

It lists invasive alien species (AIS) as one of the primary drivers of biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. 

In Australia, cats alone have contributed to the extinctions of at least 27 native species.

Despite the harm they cause, Booth agrees that the welfare of all species is "important", but it's just an "unfortunate circumstance" that some have been introduced to Australia.

She said it's important to take animal welfare into account when managing them, and "unfortunately, it has to be often about killing".

"There are no nice non-lethal methods available in most circumstances when we need to protect native species from the likes of cats, foxes, rats and other ungulates causing great damage," she said.

The Invasive Species Council has opposed programs like inviting recreational shooters to manage animals on public land.

Booth argues culling must be done "carefully and strategically".

"Futile killing is definitely something we are really striving to prevent," she said.

Booth said the best way to minimise killing is to fund professional programs with measurable outcomes that help nature.

"The more effective you can be, the more you limit the killing that is needed in future," she said.

She said by reducing numbers as quickly as possible, the need for ongoing culling is reduced.

"Regular killing is the worst outcome for everyone," she said.

"Because it means you constantly have to be funding these programs and doing lots more killing than you would need to otherwise."

I really love print periodicals, so I thought I'd make a post to share the ones that I know of and seek out recommendations for additional ones.

I'm looking for recommendations for Australian print magazines that cover some amount of news, politics, literature, arts, culture, science, sustainability, and/or ecology.

I am not interested in publications that primarily focus on music, fashion, sports/surf/skate culture, homes/architecture/design, gardening, or weddings.

I'm especially keen on indie publications!

There are so many amazing online-only publications, but I'm looking for print media specifically: I don't enjoy e-readers, or being on screens, any more than I already have to be.

***Australian print periodicals that are already on my radar:****

• with an option for ongoing subscription:
  • news and politics
    • the saturday paper (technically a newspaper, but am including since it's published once a week rather than daily)
    • the monthly
    • quarterly essay
    • arena
  • science and sustainability
    • australian geographic
    • renew
    • sanctuary
    • green
  • other/misc
    • frankie
    • vault
    • new philosopher
    • never too small
    • walkers journal
  • literature
    • overland
    • meanjin
    • voiceworks
    • griffith review
    • australian book review
    • westerly
    • HEAT
    • island
    • southerly
• with no option for ongoing subscription:
  • the story
  • archer
  • galah
  • peppermint
  • mince
  • no cure
• no longer in print (as far as I can tell) (rip <3):
  • smith journal
  • the lifted brow
  • demure
  • tart
  • dumbo feather
  • lunch lady

Are there any other homegrown periodicals with decent journalism and writing? Let's keep local print media alive together 💜

A former digital forensic officer in Bendigo has been charged with offences including possession of child abuse material.

Vincent Manner, 57, was this week charged with misconduct in public office, failing to provide information under warrant, and up to six counts of accessing and possessing child abuse material.

Mr Manner was suspended without pay in August last year, but resigned amid a police investigation in November.

Police said the investigation was undertaken by the Professional Standards Unit in conjunction with the Cybercrime Squad, and worked with the Office of Public Prosecutions (OPP) "to understand the impact of the ongoing enquiry on any current investigations or court matters".

"Following the identification of a number of potentially affected matters, a formal review of the forensic data was conducted. This re-examination has been completed," a police statement read.

"At this stage it is believed all issues have been identified and reviewed and impacted parties have been notified."

Mr Manner will face Bendigo Magistrates Court on November 4.

A shooting in Melbourne is under investigation after two young men were found seriously injured.

The 22-year-old man from from Dallas and the 19-year-old man from Craigieburn were found injured inside a home on Kaniva St in Dallas about 8.20am on Sunday.

Victoria Police said emergency services found the men “seriously injured, possibly shot.”

An Ambulance Victoria spokesperson described them as having “upper body injuries”.

The two men are believed to be known to each other.

No one else is believed to have been involved in the shooting incident.

A Mobile Intensive Care Ambulance and Advanced Life Support paramedic crews were sent to the home.

Both injured men were taken to the Royal Melbourne Hospital under police guard, Victoria Police said.

Detectives are now probing the circumstances surrounding the incident.

Anyone with information is urged to contact Crime Stoppers.

An elderly man has been arrested after allegedly stabbing a woman in a Blacktown shopping centre.

The police operation unfolded after emergency services were called to the centre on Patrick St in Blacktown, following reports of an armed offender.

Police were told a woman, 79, had been stabbed multiple times.

She was treated by paramedics before being taken to hospital in a serious condition.

A 93-year-old man, believed to be known to the woman, was arrested nearby and taken to Blacktown Police Station.

A crime scene has been established by specialist police and inquiries are ongoing.

No charges have been laid.

Australia’s New South Wales Parliament on Thursday formally recognized the late-19th-century genocide of Afghanistan’s Hazaras under former Afghan ruler Amir Abdur Rahman Khan and designated September 25 as “Hazara Black Day.”

The upper house of the state parliament passed notice of motion No. 3773, introduced by legislative council member Anthony D’Adam, with broad cross-party support. The resolution makes the recognition the official position of the state’s legislative council and urges Australia’s federal government to recognize and condemn the genocide at the national level.

According to the motion, Abdur Rahman Khan, who ruled Afghanistan from 1880 to 1901, launched systematic military campaigns against the Hazara community between 1888 and 1893. The campaigns resulted in the massacre of more than 60% of the Hazara population, the forced displacement of large numbers of survivors, and the enslavement of many others. The motion describes these events as genocide.

The text also notes that Hazaras have faced ongoing systemic oppression, massacres, targeted sexual violence, slavery, religious discrimination and forced displacement from the 19th century through to the present day. It states that the situation has deteriorated further since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021 and with the expanded operations of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K).

D’Adam proposed designating September 25 as “Hazara Black Day”, a date observed by Hazara activists to commemorate the victims of the genocide and remember the suffering inflicted on their community. The resolution also emphasizes the importance of remembering historical atrocities and learning from them to help prevent similar crimes in the future.

Hazaras, a predominantly Shia Muslim ethnic minority in Sunni-majority Afghanistan, have faced decades of discrimination, marginalization and targeted violence. The community has endured repeated attacks, including bombings of religious gatherings, schools, public transport and other civilian sites.

The situation for Hazaras has worsened significantly since the Taliban’s return to power, marked by an increase in violence and exclusion from basic services, education and employment. Many attacks against Hazaras remain unprosecuted, exacerbating their vulnerability.

The majority of attacks on Hazaras in recent years have been claimed by ISIS-K, the regional affiliate of ISIS, which considers the Hazara-Shia community “heretic.” Human Rights Watch reported in 2024 that ISIS-K claimed responsibility for at least 17 attacks against Hazaras since the Taliban takeover, killing and injuring more than 700 people.

Hazara activists have long called on the United Nations and the international community to formally acknowledge the violence against Hazaras as genocide and to take meaningful steps to prevent further atrocities.

The move follows similar recognitions in recent years. In 2025, East Staffordshire Borough Council in the United Kingdom recognised the genocide of Hazaras between 1891 and 1893 under Amir Abdur Rahman Khan. In November 2022, Dandenong City Council in Melbourne became the first governmental body in Australia to officially recognise the Hazara genocide.

An Australian public servant of Indian origin has been arrested and subsequently denied bail by a court in Canberra for stalking a woman and threatening to use government databases to obtain information about her and her family, according to media reports.

Suyash Sinha, 31, was arrested on Tuesday, October 13, following a police raid on his home, the state-owned ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) News reported.

Sinha appeared before the Australian Capital Territory Magistrates Court on Wednesday, October 14, where Special Magistrate Lucinda Wilson refused his bail application, saying the risk to the complainant’s safety and well-being was “too great,” the report said.

Sinha, who became an Australian citizen last week, is accused of stalking the woman, whom he allegedly met through a dating app in January, the Region Canberra news portal reported.

Sinha allegedly continued messaging the woman after she rejected his advances. In August, he described what she was wearing while she was shopping at a Coles supermarket in Canberra, saying he was there too, the report said.

The woman later agreed to meet Sinha at a pub to ask him to stop contacting her. During the meeting, he said he worked in finance for the ACT government and named one of her siblings, claiming that “anyone could be looked up in government systems,” it said.

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is a self-governing territory of Australia that contains Canberra, the national capital.

The woman subsequently received multiple friend requests from different social media accounts with intimidating usernames and approached police in September, according to the news portal.

Prosecutors told the court the woman was terrified and experiencing symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, ABC News reported.

The prosecution opposed bail, arguing that Sinha was fixated on the woman and could endanger her safety or interfere with evidence and witnesses, the report said.

“He’s fixated on this person, and he’s refused to accept ‘no’ as an answer to his advances,” the prosecutor was quoted as saying by ABC News.

Special Magistrate Wilson told Sinha the woman had never expressed interest in a relationship with him in the 10 months since he first contacted her.

“But you did not give up. Ever,” Wilson was quoted as saying by the Region Canberra news portal.

Sinha’s lawyer argued against the “allegations” and said that the accused had no prior criminal history and had been financially supporting his family members in India and his brother in Canberra, the news portal said.

Sinha has been remanded in custody, with the case adjourned to November 4, it said.

A Brisbane dog owner has issued an impassioned defence of her pets after a jogger was seriously mauled in north Brisbane, just hours before she was dramatically arrested by police.

The man’s condition has been downgraded to stable since the attack on Friday evening, which wounded his face, arm and leg.

The dramatic incident began about 6pm, and involved police officers firing their guns at the dogs, and the police helicopter scouring the suburb of Chermside looking for the animals; one was found soon after, and the second was found the following morning.

The dogs’ owner agreed to speak to 9News, but police swooped while the camera crew was still at her house, and she was taken away in handcuffs.

A police spokesperson on Sunday said the woman was arrested on an unrelated matter.

The police spokesperson said senior officers had already reviewed the shooting, and that the dogs ran away soon after the firearms were used on Friday evening.

“Attending officers were confronted with an immediate and serious safety risk and, after initial attempts to subdue the animals were unsuccessful, were required to discharge their service firearms in response to the risk posed to members of the community and others at the scene,” the spokesperson said.

“As with all police use of force incidents, the matter has been recorded and reviewed by senior officers in accordance with Queensland Police Service policy and procedures.”

The Brisbane City Council is expected to file an order which will see the dogs put down – owners have the ability to challenge such orders.

The dogs’ owner, Layla Evans, told 9News the dogs were protective of her and her partner, but other than that “they’re really good dogs”.

She said the police suspected the dogs escaped from the tent she lives in.

“My mother rung me to say she was with the police … and I had to come down, had to come down and try to find my dog,” Ms Evans said.

“I walked all over town, I walked over the park, couldn’t find them anywhere.

“Shattered, I’m shattered to bits.”

The 37-year-old man was attacked by the two dogs at Seventh Brigade Park in Chermside about 6.15pm on Friday.

He suffered significant lacerations to his face and arms, before being taken to Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital in a critical condition.

It is understood he was running when the dogs attacked.

The police helicopter was called in to help locate the dogs on Friday night, with one captured soon after.

The second dog was found at a property on Newman Rd, Wavell Heights, on Saturday morning.

Wavell Heights resident Monique Moore told the Courier Mail she had seen the first dog at a veterinary clinic, where she had taken her elderly dog to be put down.

“We were getting our elderly dog put to sleep and the authorities brought the dog there in the car park,” Ms Moore said.

Witnesses reported hearing a woman yelling a dog’s name in a nearby street, about the time of the attack, the Courier Mail reported.

Chermside’s weekly 5km park run still went ahead on Saturday morning, with runners asked not to bring dogs and to keep small children close.

Newlywed cafe owners Manali Purohit and Ashish Sharma recall well the day a new neighbour moved in with ambitions to open a grocery store.

“We thought, ‘Oh, that’s fantastic, that would synergise very well with our business’,” Sharma told AAP.

Purohit, a Mumbai-raised pastry chef, and her husband had only recently acted on their dream to open their vegan eatery, And Bodega, on St Georges Road in Melbourne’s Fitzroy North.

But it wasn’t long before the presence of their next-door tenants began to stir unease among tight-knit locals.

“We knew pretty early on it may not be a grocery store, it may be like something like a tobacco store,” Sharma said.

“My wife was already a little anxious ... there was a little bit of inevitability.”

Customers also expressed concern to them about the possibility arsonists could target the neighbourhood as they had in relation to over 150 other tobacconist stores across Victoria since March 2023.

Then in late-September, as she arrived for an early morning baking shift, the glint of exposed glass jutting from the shop’s front window caught Purohit’s eye.

Plastered to the wall was a handwritten note, according to another witness spoken to by AAP.

They attributed it to a group now synonymous with the city’s tobacco wars: The Commission.

The glass was again smashed last Thursday, with CCTV allegedly capturing a car driving past the tobacconist, before bricks were hurtled into the shopfront.

By Monday, early morning Triple Zero calls from terrified locals reported hearing explosions about 3.45am.

The damage destroyed the tobacconist, devastated And Bodega and another cafe, and left Mr Sharma and Purohit with “what looked like a bomb site” where their plant-based cafe once thrived.

“There were these little canisters strewn all across our premise ... the severity and the ferociousness of these things ... it’s terrorism,” Sharma said.

Investigators believe at least one offender forced entry to the tobacconist and set it alight but no arrests have been made.

There’s nothing to suggest the targeted business was selling illicit tobacco, police say.

The attack is one in a spate that has gripped Melbourne in the past two weeks, as authorities struggle to curb a years-long scourge of tobacco store fires.

Facing a damage bill of well over $100,000, Sharma has joined a growing chorus of industry experts and economists calling for Australia’s tobacco excise to be cut in a bid to reduce demand for cheap illegal cigarettes.

“Why let a black market, why let these types of actors form any sort of foothold in our society?” he said.

“It’s real stubbornness from politicians ... somebody needs to just make the easy call and be like we’re just abolishing this tax and we’re not letting any new tobacco stores open.”

Around 80 per cent of all tobacco consumed in 2025 was illegal, up from 12 per cent in 2017, the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates.

At the same time, the tobacco excise has more than tripled.

The federal government continues to prioritise a law enforcement approach to choking the illicit trade.

Yet it has stubbornly resisted demands to slash the excise, which generated $7.4 billion in 2024-25.

“We cannot overstate the emphasis on shutting down retail premises that are blatantly selling illegal products in high streets,” Assistant Customs Minister Julian Hill recently told AAP.

Contrastingly, the coalition has vowed to slash the tobacco excise by 80 per cent if elected, dropping the average price of cigarettes from $40-$50 to roughly $16-$26.

One Nation wants to slash the tax by 75 per cent and freeze indexation for five years.

Reducing the excise is the only credible way for to smoke out Australia’s $8.5 billion nicotine black market, says Deakin University criminologist James Martin.

“By relying on these reactive solutions, none of this is addressing the fundamental problem and that is strong persistent demand for affordable and appealing types of nicotine,” Dr Martin says.

“As long as that demand (for affordable nicotine) is there, there will be criminal suppliers who will be prepared to capitalise and take the risks to supply that demand.

However, University of Sydney public health professor Becky Freeman says shrinking the excise risks creating a “race to the bottom with criminals”, while also risking a spike in smoking rates.

“I don’t think people understand just how cheap illicit tobacco can go,” she said.

The cost of manufacturing packs of cigarettes in parts of Southeast Asia to be imported into Australia can be as low as one Australian dollar, Prof Beckman estimates.

Earlier this month, Victorian police announced the closure of 61 stores with alleged links to organised crime caught selling illicit tobacco, alongside major cigarette, vape tobacco and cash seizures.

However, Prof Freeman argues the state government has taken too long to act.

“If this was really a priority, it’s something that should have been done ages ago,” she said..

Queensland launched initial tobacco and vape shutdown orders in September 2024 and was followed quickly by South Australia.

Retailers raised concerns that illicit tobacco-linked arson attacks could spread to legitimate businesses during a Victorian inquiry into tobacco and vaping controls more than two years ago.

The probe also found state and local governments were not taking enforcement action against illicit sales due to a lack of resources, safety concerns and legislative deficiencies.

Small and medium businesses were at increased risk of violence due to the illicit tobacco trade, the inquiry’s final report found in August 2024.

“It’s sadly not surprising Victoria is having all these problems because they’ve been so slow to enact enforcement,” Prof Freeman said.

The Victorian government has not responded to AAP’s request for comment.

France has long embraced subversion. Its revolutionaries, rebellious students and intellectual provocateurs occupy a cherished place in the national imagination. In May 1968, student protests and mass strikes paralysed the country and shook Charles de Gaulle’s government. Half a century later, the gilets jaunes turned anger over fuel taxes and living costs into a prolonged confrontation with the state. In 2023, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 brought nationwide strikes, burning barricades and violent clashes with police.

Sadly, it seems that admiration for defiance made the French too accepting of destruction.

I am writing from my living room on the fourth floor of my building in Saint-Germain-des-Prés, Paris. All I can hear are the sirens of fire engines and police cars.

The unrest began with students demanding more teachers and better school conditions. Fair enough. It widened to include unions and protesters concerned about living costs and public services, and today, peaceful demonstrations turned into arson, looting and attacks on public buildings. The French call it la casse. Cars and rubbish bins burned in Paris; shops are being looted as I write. In Marseille, a municipal police station was damaged. In Limoges, the town hall was also set alight, with local reporting describing flames reaching the roof. In Lyon, fire broke out inside a tourism office.

I was in Lyon just weeks ago. Such a magnificent city, with an extraordinary history. Watching this is heartbreaking. This is the destruction of a community’s property, paid for by the very public in whose name protesters claim to act.

My French friends tell me to stop watching television and let it pass. It always has, they say. ‘Il faut avoir une attitude pleine de nonchalance vis-à-vis de ces choses-là. C’est très français.’

Strikes and demonstrations are so familiar in France that disruption is something people organise their lives around. My friends’ response suggests that even violence can become another inconvenience to wait out. Surely a country should expect more.

France has forceful police. Although tear gas and water cannons have been deployed, the police cannot fix the acceptance of declining standards in public behaviour.

When destruction repeatedly accompanies demonstrations, we learn which streets to avoid and wait for the clean-up. Accountability gives way to managing the inconvenience.

Beneath that resignation are fractures that France has allowed to deepen. The Republic promises equal citizenship, but the experience of belonging to it can differ enormously depending on where someone grows up, the school they attend and their prospects of finding work. The OECD has found immigrant students in France more isolated from non-immigrant students than the OECD average, with residential segregation and economic inequality contributing to divisions in schooling. Sharing a nationality does not necessarily mean sharing much of a life.

There is also a failure of reciprocity. A country must offer its citizens a fair chance to belong and contribute. Citizens, in return, owe something to the society that provides their rights: respect for its laws, its public assets and other people’s freedoms. When government fails to deliver, and individuals treat responsibility as optional, that relationship begins to break down.

Governments cannot repeatedly promise better services, fail to deliver them and expect public confidence to survive. Ministers should have to explain what went wrong, account for the money spent and face consequences for persistent failure.

France’s tradition of revolt did not create all these divisions, but romanticising confrontation, then accepting its destruction as inevitable, makes them harder to repair. Anger becomes an excuse for conduct that deserves condemnation. Political failure becomes so familiar that nobody expects consequences. Meanwhile, the people carrying on, paying taxes and keeping businesses open are left to absorb the damage.

That is the French lesson Australia should take seriously. We do not need to face identical circumstances to recognise the danger of allowing disappointment in government, separation between communities and declining expectations of public behaviour to reinforce one another.

Our circumstances differ, but we have housing pressures, financial hardship and distrust in political leadership. Scanlon Foundation research identifies economic pressures, discrimination and prejudice as challenges to cohesion, while finding resilience worth protecting.

As a country shaped by migration, we cannot leave integration to chance. People need opportunities to work, learn English and participate. They also need clear expectations about citizenship, common laws and respect for others.

Governments must match population growth with housing, infrastructure and services. Otherwise, people compete for necessities and blame their neighbours for failures made in political office. Young Australians need a credible prospect of independence, rather than another assurance that their difficulties are understood.

We should demand more of our politicians and ourselves. Political loyalty must not excuse incompetence, as much as sympathy for a cause must not excuse violence. Police must act lawfully, and those who destroy livelihoods must face consequences.

Respect includes the business owner, the employee, the resident and the peaceful protester whose cause is damaged by violence.

My French friends may be right that this will pass. But the victims and taxpayers will still be paying for the destruction when everyone else has moved on.

We should all learn from the French lesson: when we stop demanding accountability from those who govern and those who destroy, we give both permission to carry on.

A 13-year-old boy has been arrested and charged over 11 separate incidents involving the sexual assault or harassment of women in the Narrabeen Lagoon area of Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

The incidents occurred between September 7 and October 12, involving women and girls aged between 13 and 54.

NSW Police established specialist sexual crimes investigation unit Strike Force Mexvo following the string of sexual assault and harassment reports from women in Sydney’s Northern Beaches.

Strike Force Mexvo brought together specialist detectives and officers from the Sex Crimes Squad to investigate the possible link between descriptions of the perpetrator and areas involved in the recently reported offences.

The unit then released footage of the suspect on Friday, showing a male with a blurred face on an e-bike.

Police urged anyone who knew the male to provide further information of his whereabouts and identity.

On Saturday evening, the boy presented himself to police and was arrested.

“Following a public appeal, a 13-year-old boy was arrested after attending Mona Vale Police Station about 7.30pm yesterday (Saturday 17 October 2026),” a police statement announced

The teenager was then taken to Manly Police Station and charged with three counts of behaving in an offensive manner in a public place and eight counts of sexually touching another person without consent.

The first reported incident in the teen’s alleged string of sexual offences occurred at 3.55pm on October 7 when a woman was allegedly sexually touched by a man riding an e-bike while she was walking on the Narrabeen Lagoon trail.

She described the perpetrator, who sped off after committing the alleged assault, as having a slim build, wearing a fluorescent yellow shirt and dark pants.

Another incident occurred at about 3.15pm the following day of October 8 when a runner on the nearby Narrabeen Lake trail was allegedly subjected to inappropriate sexual remarks.

The victim described the perpetrator as being of Caucasian appearance, aged between 17 and 25, and having short spiky hair and sideburns.

Two hours later on the same day, an e-bike rider allegedly approached another woman exercising at Bilarong Reserve and sexually touched her before fleeing on his e-bike.

She described the offender as having blond, curly hair and estimated his age to be around 15 or 16-years-old.

On Monday October 12, two women were allegedly sexually touched in the same hour whilst walking beside Narrabeen Lagoon in the afternoon.

The offender was once again said to be riding an e-bike and described as Caucasian, aged between 16 and 18, approximately 175cm tall and wearing a bright yellow top with green on the sides, long black pants and a round black helmet.

A sixth woman then came forward to police on October 12 with information of an incident on October 1 where she was allegedly sexually touched by a man on an e-bike at Narrabeen Lagoon.

Police have also alleged the same perpetrator carried out a similar offence on September 7.

“It will also be alleged that a woman was spoken to inappropriately at the intersection of Waroon Road and Carawa Road, Cromer, about 6.45pm on Monday 7 September 2026,” the police statement said.

One of the women involved in the string of alleged assaults spoke to local publication Manly Observer about the offence in which she was allegedly touched on the behind.

“I just went on a walk, and sat for a while at a bench. There was someone on an e-bike loitering around Bilarong park area,” the young woman told Manly Observer.

“I didn’t think much of it, then stood up to walk again and [was] listening to a podcast.

“It just gave me a huge fright,” she said.

The boy has been granted conditional bail and is due to appear before a children’s court on Wednesday November 4.

Senior Labor and Coalition parliamentarians say the Greens have “questions” to answer as Senator Jordon Steele-John faces an internal probe into claims of inappropriate behaviour toward women.

Senator Steele-John this week took leave from the Greens party room after current and former members wrote to leader David Shoebridge asking him to investigation allegations spanning “almost a decade”.

Reporting has since revealed that the party’s Western Australia branch kept a 47-page crisis management plan detailing how to manage media coverage of any allegations against Senator Steele-John.

It also instructed staff to monitor any related chatter on social media from party members.

Senator Shoebridge – who clinched the Greens leadership late last month with Senator Steele-John’s backing – has denied any knowledge of the document or the allegations.

Cabinet minister Tim Ayres told News24 on Sunday there were “questions” for the new leader to answer.

Asked if he thought Senator Shoebridge knew of the allegations before they became public, he directed the queries to minor party’s leader.

Senator Ayres also denied ever hearing any rumours about Senator Steele-John.

“No, I had not heard rumours of these allegation,” he said.

Opposition frontbencher Sarah Henderson also said “the Greens have a lot of explaining to do”.

“It is appropriate that there should be a proper, I hope, independent inquiry into these allegations,” she said, speaking to the same broadcaster.

Senator Steele-John has rejected the claims against him, saying they try “to assert I am someone I am not”.

“I have referred this matter to the WA Greens, so that a fair, independent process can be commissioned that upholds the principles of natural justice and ensures procedural fairness for everyone involved,” he said.

“These claims are made without specifics, any allegation of this nature is extremely serious and must be treated accordingly.

“If someone has made an allegation, I am prepared to address it.”

Researchers have developed and tested a new locking method for gravitational wave detectors that will advance the discovery of distant black holes and neutron stars colliding.

Researchers from ARC Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery (OzGrav) nodes at The University of Western Australia, the Australian National University and the University of Adelaide co-authored the study published in Physical Review D.

The strong El Niño currently under way in the Pacific Ocean raises the specter of marine heat waves and coral bleaching once again threatening Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef. And now new research has revealed the complex interplay of atmospheric patterns and weather systems thousands of kilometers apart that can combine in a recipe potentially fatal for coral reefs.

Climate Activists Occupy Woodside’s Floating Gas Platform

The Greenpeace campaigners ascended the 70,000-tonne floating production unit at Woodside’s Scarborough gas site off the coast of Western Australia on Oct. 17.

By Samantha Lock in Sydney

AAP

10/17/2026|Updated: 10/17/2026

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Climate activists have scaled a massive floating platform at sea, forcing a gas project to initiate a temporary shutdown.

The Greenpeace campaigners ascended the 70,000-tonne floating production unit at Woodside’s Scarborough gas site off the coast of Western Australia (WA) on the morning of Oct. 17.

Activist Chris Holden said the controversial project—set to produce its first liquid natural gas export by year’s end—would irrevocably harm nature on Scott Reef, a coral atoll about 300 kilometres off the Kimberley coast.

“With warnings like this from the leading global health professionals, our government simply can’t allow fossil fuel projects like Woodside’s Browse project to go ahead,” Holden said while carrying aboard a copy of the 2025 Lancet countdown report.

Once operational, the $18.6 billion (US$12.9 billion) project will provide up to eight million tonnes of LNG for export a year, as well as up to 225 terajoules of gas per day for domestic consumption.

The massive floating production unit arrived at the site 375 kilometres off Karratha in mid-January after being slowly towed from China—a voyage that took two months.

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A 2021 report by the Conservation Council of WA and The Australia Institute warned Scarborough would produce an additional 1.6 billion tonnes of emissions, “equivalent to building 15 new coal power stations.”

It said the project was the highest-polluting fossil fuel development proposed in Australia and would increase WA’s total emissions almost 5 percent or 4.4 million tonnes per year.

Woodside has insisted Scarborough has been subject to extensive review and will deliver one of the lowest-carbon LNG sources in Australia.

As of 11:30 a.m. local time, the company said it was still responding to an incident “involving individuals who have gained unlawful access to the Scarborough floating production unit.”

“Our immediate focus is on managing the situation safely and minimising risk to the individuals involved and our workforce,” a spokesperson told AAP.

By Samantha Lock in Sydney

Australia’s budget would remain mired in deficit for more than 10 years under One Nation’s plans for lower migration, delivering an economic blow that would drive up national debt by an extra $275 billion.

As political parties of all stripes come under pressure to appease public anxiety about immigration, a 10-year analysis of lower migration scenarios using Parliamentary Budget Office tools exposes the economic and fiscal consequences of blunt measures to bring fewer people to the country.

According to the analysis, Pauline Hanson’s three-year negative migration scenario would also reduce Australia’s economic output by $212 billion by the middle of next decade, when there would be 820,000 fewer taxpaying workers in the economy.

Former Coalition finance minister Mathias Cormann, now head of the OECD, on Saturday warned against setting “arbitrary migration caps” without thought to their impact on businesses, hospitals or universities.

“An ageing country that chooses to shrink its working-age population while promising to spend more on health, care and defence has not developed a plan. It has put forward a contradiction,” he said in a speech.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.Alex Ellinghausen

The analysis shows cutting migration to the Coalition’s desired levels would mean $150 billion more debt in a decade under current migration settings, demonstrating the opposition has a high-wire task in executing precise changes to the visa system that avoid a compounding fiscal fallout.

The Labor government is already wearing backlash from the hospitality and accommodation sector, which relies on migrant labour, for its decision to limit working holidaymaker visas as a key measure to quickly bring down the net overseas migration intake.

Public anxiety about immigration has grown alongside the number of temporary visa holders in Australia, but industry and business groups are becoming increasingly concerned that a political contest to drive numbers down quickly risks jeopardising the economy.

The Australian Hotels Association made its own intervention into public debate this week with an AI-generated advertisement that showed services falling apart as migrant workers disappeared from cafes, aged care homes, supermarkets and hotels across the country.

“The hotel industry understands the need for migration changes, but it’s unfair our sector is copping the brunt of the planned cuts,” Accommodation Australia chief executive James Goodwin said. “There must be a better balance across the different visa categories and sectors of the economy.”

Labor will cut second- and third-year working holidaymaker visas and student family visas in its plans to get net overseas migration numbers down to 225,000. The Coalition will target graduates and refugees to hit a 100,000 target, before lifting it to 160,000 with more skilled entrants.

One Nation has not specified its plans but wants three years of negative migration, before a maximum net intake of 130,000 people a year, which would retain regional workers.

Deciphering the economic impacts of lower migration

Economist Chris Richardson said higher migration levels generally gave the federal government a higher tax intake, although they saddled state governments with more spending. He said there were not examples of economic models that effectively combined the impact of migration on federal budgets, state budgets and the complex issue of housing.

The budget office’s “build your own budget” calculator is one tool that enables users to compare policy initiatives, including cuts to net overseas migration, and their impact on the federal budget and population growth over time.

It is limited and assumes current policy settings, so the Coalition’s plans to reconfigure the migration program cannot be factored into the forecasts. But without published budget analysis from the opposition or One Nation, it is one measure to gauge the fiscal impact of cuts if current migration settings were maintained but scaled down to include fewer people.

Based on One Nation’s desired immigration levels, by the middle of next decade the country would have 820,000 fewer people in paid employment. That has a flow-on impact on personal income tax, company tax and GST collections.

Under the government’s policies, the budget is expected to show cumulative deficits of $108 billion over the next decade, returning to the black in 2034-35. But One Nation would run cumulative deficits of $391 billion, and the budget would not return to surplus over the next 10 years.

The larger deficits mean more gross debt, which is currently $995 billion. By the middle of next decade, current government policy would take debt to almost $1.4 trillion. But with deep cuts in net overseas migration, One Nation would have debt at $1.67 trillion.

The Coalition’s numbers, under today’s migration settings, would lead to debt at $1.54 trillion. There would also be a 430,000 drop in the number of working people, and run-up deficits worth $262 billion. It would get back to surplus in 2036-37.

The opposition’s own analysis deviates significantly from these estimates because the Coalition plans on changing the mix of migrants, whereas the PBO budget tool assumes the make-up of the migration program remains the same as today but in smaller numbers.

The Coalition forecasts losing $6.1 billion over the four-year forward estimates because of lower migration. However, halving the refugee intake from 20,000 to 10,000 people would deliver $2.7 billion in budget savings, while a new skilled project visa scheme is forecast to deliver $3.9 billion.

The Coalition says its policy would improve the budget bottom line by $260 million in four years and $2.5 billion over the decade, although it has not published the analysis, which was also completed by the PBO, so it is unclear what other caveats or conditions are factored into that scenario.

Richardson said high-skilled young adult migrants delivered the most positive budget and economic impact, but changing migration policy was complex. “As the government has tried to wind back migration in recent years, it’s increasingly clear that it’s hard,” he said.

“Regardless of what any political party wants to do, we’ve built a system that’s a supertanker – it doesn’t change direction fast. The politics have changed, but the poles and wires of the system haven’t.”

The Coalition is mounting its case for lower migration levels as it competes in the polls with One Nation, which has not outlined any policy details or addressed economic impacts.

A spokesperson for leader Angus Taylor said One Nation’s policy was a mess while the government had been relying on migration to pump up their budget, claiming the Coalition could both deliver a historic cut to migration and fully protect the economy.

Cormann, in his speech to the right-leaning Centre for Independent Studies in Brisbane on Saturday, doused that argument. He acknowledged public concern about immigration had grown, particularly because of housing shortfalls, but rejected cutting immigration as the answer.

“That concern [housing] is legitimate ... The answer is to fix what made it legitimate: housing supply, infrastructure, services and the composition of the intake, not to shrink the country,” said the former minister in the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.

“We cannot have fewer workers and more hospitals, more aged care, a bigger pension bill and more defence all at the same time. Someone has to pay for all that. You cannot shrink your way out of that bind. You can only grow your way out of it.”

Young guns in Albanese's ministry jockey for position in reshuffle

With Labor struggling in the polls, ministers hungry to move up the food chain are positioning themselves for a second-term reshuffle.

Geoff Chambers - POLITICAL EDITOR

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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Assistant Minister for Science, Technology and the Digital Economy Andrew Charlton and Emergency Management and Regional Development Minister Kristy McBain.

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The stench of complacency in federal Labor ranks is undermining quality policy development and sharp political execution at a ­critical juncture in Anthony Albanese’s second term.

The cacophony of calls for a major economic policy pivot and ministerial renewal is growing louder amid a horror run of miscalculations that have sunk Labor to near-record Newspoll lows not ­observed since the chaotic years of the Gillard government.

After cleaning up blunders by prominent ministers including Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, the Prime Minister is cracking the whip to get Labor ministers, MPs and staffers in shape for the political fight of their lives.

The PM is cracking the whip to get Labor ministers, MPs and staffers in shape. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Low-level paranoia is creeping in across a government that won 94 lower house seats just 17 months ago. Labor MPs who won their seats from the Liberals and the Greens at the 2022 and 2025 federal elections are increasingly ­concerned they will be swept away by a rising tide of discontent at the 2028 election.

Labor’s polling plunge following the Bondi Beach terror attack last December and successive rate hikes this year, fuelled by high inflation and government spending, has instilled confusion in the minds of Albanese’s caucus.

With Labor MPs back in Canberra this week, Albanese reminded his troops they “aren’t even halfway through their second term”.

Government MPs are being told to stop obsessing about the next election. The message is: “Don’t be caught not seeing the ­forest for the trees.”

Albanese wants his team to rise above the day-to-day political cycle, which is currently dominated by One Nation, antipathy towards the major parties, and white-hot rage over rate hikes and cost-of-­living pressures.

“The key is to not get spooked, keep cool, do the right thing, analyse things as they are, and not worry about a week or a fortnight,” says a source close to Albanese.

Albanese’s mob is being reassured that the schism on the conservative side of politics, the Greens’ dismal performance, and the federal compulsory preferential-voting system will ultimately favour Labor in its bid for a third term. A major assault against One Nation is also well-developed but being held back until closer to the next election.

Despite the positive spin, after almost 4½ years in government, ­Albanese is under pressure to usher in renewal in ALP ranks that would set up Labor for at least a decade in power. By 2028, the government’s Rudd/Gillard-era ministers will be in their late 50s, 60s and 70s.

Trade Minister Don Farrell will be 74, Albanese will be 65, Transport Minister Catherine King will be 62, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles will be 61, Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong will be 60, Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek will be 59, Burke will be 59, Health Minister Mark Butler will be 58 and Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will be 55.

Most of them would argue they have more to give, and say Donald Trump and Joe Biden were in their 70s when they won US presidential elections. But many have been in the federal parliament since the 1990s and 2000s, and Labor’s pursuit of younger voters may require passing the torch to the next generation.

The other matter, which isn’t publicly addressed, is whether underperforming Labor ministers should be demoted or sacked.

As the economy sinks faster than the Titanic, and the housing market falters at a blistering pace, the Albanese government has lost some of the energy and urgency of its first term.

Deluge of complaints

When Albanese arrived back in Australia following the pre-COP31 climate-change summit meetings in Fiji and Tuvalu earlier this month, a deluge of complaints was flooding in from industry chiefs, business owners and backbenchers over yet another bungle under Chalmers’ watch.

After recently intervening on Burke’s migration policy, Albanese and his senior advisers were shocked by an ATO decision to ban ­credit-card payments when business owners were being told to scrap surcharges and absorb costs. The ATO ban was ultimately stalled after Albanese and Chalmers held a snap Expenditure Review Committee of cabinet meeting last Friday.

Since the May 12 budget, Albanese has had to get involved on ­veterans’ affairs issues, Treasury legislation, migration policy, NDIS and private health insurance spending reforms, artificial intelligence, a digital duty of care bill, a gas reservation scheme, and manufacturing rescue packages.

The inability of Chalmers to land Labor’s contentious second-term budget, which included hits on negative gearing, capital gains tax and trusts, has been the glaring failure for a government struggling with high inflation, rate hikes, rising unemployment, long-term deficits and a $1 trillion debt bill.

The inability of Chalmers to land Labor’s contentious second-term budget has been a glaring failure. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“It is like Albanese gave Jim the rope and Jim just went too far with that budget. Why didn’t he just do negative gearing and stop at that? He couldn’t help himself and now he is paying the price,” a senior Labor operative tells Inquirer.

“At the end of the day, everyone knows that Anthony and his top people make the big calls and reserve the right to intervene on any issue. The powerbase is centralised and, unfortunately for Jim, he isn’t part of that central nerve system.”

Another Labor insider, who confirms tensions between the offices of the Prime Minister and Treasurer since the 2022 election, says Albanese and Chalmers “are not close mates and never will be … but work together closely and constructively where they need to”.

Australia’s second-longest serving prime minister John Howard this week explained why “a certain amount of constructive tension” between a treasurer and prime minister is important. Howard said without Peter Costello, who was never a close ally, his Coalition government “would never have paid off all that debt”.

The power imbalance between Albanese and Chalmers means the junior partner has been unable to wield the same influence as a Costello, Paul Keating or Wayne Swan.

Albanese is keenly aware that he must support generational renewal to give Labor its best shot of staying in power for as long as possible. A reshuffle would be linked to departures from parliament as long-term MPs announce their retirement from politics, or shift into other jobs to free up space on the ministerial wing’s blue carpet.

Andrew Charlton, who is leading Albanese’s artificial intelligence policy platform and was drafted by the Labor leader to be cabinet secretary after last year’s election, looms as a potential successor to his longtime rival Chalmers. A complication for the 48-year-old, who is the same age as Chalmers, is that his Sydney seat of Parramatta could prove tough to retain at the 2028 election.

Ministers hungry to move up the food chain include Communications Minister Anika Wells, 41, and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil, 46, who are considered close to Albanese and have worked to recover from respective travel expenses and immigration scandals. Workplace Relations Minister Amanda Rishworth, a protege of Farrell, and Perth MP Patrick Gorman, 41, are considered safe pairs of hands. Rishworth, 48, is the most experienced parliamentarian of the younger brigade.

Other MPs and ministers well-regarded by Albanese include Emergency Management and Regional Development Minister Kristy McBain, factional ally and NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister and Hunter MP Dan Repacholi, who will be at the forefront of Labor’s fight with One Nation in the NSW Hunter Valley region.

Albanese’s Praetorian Guard includes Butler, Wong, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, Industry Minister Tim Ayres, Environment Minister Murray Watt and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, all from the Left faction, along with NSW Right-faction acolyte Burke. Farrell and Marles, heads of the national Labor Right faction, provide key support for Albanese.

That leaves Chalmers as the odd man out.

Senior government sources say a move on Chalmers is improbable because the legacy of prime ministers and treasurers are bound together. The only scenario involving a Treasury portfolio change would be if Chalmers left on his own terms or agreed to shift roles following the next election. Either outcome is considered unlikely.

“Chalmers has been very disciplined. Even when it looks like he is being briefed against, he hasn’t lost control or spoken out publicly,” a Labor strategist says.

“Everyone wants him to succeed. He is a highly effective communicator. But he needs to start selling this budget and working on the next budget to give back to Australians who are pissed off with the government.”

‘Toughest period’

Albanese rules his cabinet and ­caucus with an iron fist. As one cabinet source put it this week: “The PM is the boss. We all know that. And if you make a mistake or don’t get it right, he can step in and intervene. He has earned that right.”

After leading Labor back to power in 2022, securing a historic landslide victory at last year’s ­federal election, trouncing the Greens and overseeing the collapse of the Coalition, Albanese’s internal authority is indisputable.

Few believed Albanese at the start of 2025 when he declared that he would win a majority victory and vanquish Peter Dutton. The self-described underdog is channelling that disbelief as fuel for a third election and a battle with One Nation.

“Pauline Hanson is the outsider, the ­person to support if you think the system isn’t working.” Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

A senior government MP says ALP research into One Nation has identified two key points.

The first: “You can’t attack Pauline (Hanson) because they don’t give a shit whether she’s got detail or anything else … it’s just the vibe, almost. She’s the outsider, the ­person to support if you think the system isn’t working.”

The second: “Hanson and One Nation are getting to the point where the party is being taken more seriously … and when people think it through, can she actually govern? Can One Nation govern? Are they capable of it?”

Another senior government source says the midway point of the second term was “always going to be our toughest period”.

“It will likely get tougher into next year. But we are very optimistic that we will stay the course and succeed. Australians will see that we are the only party that offers ­stable government.”

The Victorian and NSW state elections, to be held on November 28 and in March next year respectively, will likely deliver lower and upper house seats for One Nation.

Veteran ALP strategists, who are writing off the party’s chances in Victoria, believe NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns “will win and win comfortably because of optional preferential as much as anything else”.

Losses in NSW are expected to be countered by wins in Sydney seats including in Ryde, Drummoyne and Epping. The Greens-held seat of Balmain is also in the sights of Labor strategists.

“The threat of One Nation will drive people to us rather than the Greens in seats like Balmain,” a Labor source says.

On the recent Greens leadership change from Larissa Waters to David Shoebridge, a senior Labor source says they are not concerned about a party that “is crazy and obsessed with issues like Gaza”.

A senior Labor source said they are not concerned about a party that “is crazy”. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“Shoebridge is an extremist. That’s just who they are. The leadership change will do nothing to grow their primary vote. It will actually hurt them because it will make it harder for legislation to pass because they’ll be ideological and more pure and just want to fight us,” the source says.

“Shoebridge’s rhetoric about wanting to replace the Labor Party … they’ve got one f..king seat. They’d have to win 75 more to form government. Shoebridge will have more cut-through than Larissa but it will be cut-through that appeals to people who are with them, who are rusted-on. And that partyroom – they completely hate each other.”

Global upheaval

Albanese will spend more time abroad before Christmas than he will at the despatch box in the House of Representatives. Over the next two months, the Prime Minister is expected to visit multiple countries and continents. He will travel to Turkey to make his first appearance at a UN COP climate change conference. There are also visits to China for the APEC summit, and Donald Trump’s home state of Florida for the G20 leaders’ summit.

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, to be attended by the King and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, is being held in the tiny Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda.

In contrast with the travel schedule, Albanese will front up for only eight more days of question time, with one lower house sitting week pencilled in later this month, and another in November.

The optics of Albanese’s travel itinerary at a time when the Reserve Bank board is expected to deliver at least two more rate hikes in coming months is not ideal. However, senior government sources say the international travel is critical at a time of global upheaval, headlined by the ongoing oil crisis and conflicts in the Middle East; pushback against the perils of artificial intelligence and data centres; the Russia-Ukraine war; supply-chain shifts; soft-power plays in the South Pacific; and rising military threats in the Indo-Pacific, including China’s anticipated move on Taiwan.

Mindful of legacy

Albanese, who some believe will seek an exit from politics ahead of the 2028 election if he struggles to recover in the polls, is determined to not abandon his beloved ALP and its fight with One Nation, the Coalition and Greens.

While some in Labor ranks feel the government must pivot back to the centre and reconnect with grumpy voters in Middle Australia, Albanese remains focused on locking in his left base.

In a speech to the Federation of Ethnic Communities’ Councils of Australia national conference on Thursday, Albanese said: “Anyone who can look in the rear-vision mirror and see a monoculture should really get themselves down to the nearest Specsavers.

“We have of course always been multicultural. And I’m really proud to lead a political party that has taken that into practice. You look at our caucus roll call, you don’t have to go past the letter A. You get Abdo, Albanese, Aly, Ambihaipahar, Ananda-Rajah, and then you get Ayres.

“What that does is reflect the fact that when I look at our government frontbench and our caucus, it looks like Australia.”

In the face of immigration crackdown calls from One Nation and the Coalition, Albanese is banking on a pro-immigration position to lock in multicultural and left-wing voters for Labor.

Some Labor figures are concerned that Albanese is underestimating the negative impacts of Chalmers’ budget in seats with aspirational, ethnic voters, including some who are turning to One ­Nation.

The other question being asked is: was the 2025 election result more about an anti-Coalition and anti-Dutton vote than Australians embracing Albanese personally and supporting Labor’s big-spending, economic, social and green energy agenda?

That verdict will be handed down in 2028.