The United Arab Emirates has agreed to re-enter the Yemen conflict by resuming payments to some government forces fighting Iran-aligned Houthis in the south, according to sources in Yemen. In return, Saudi Arabia has agreed to provide air cover for the anti-Houthi force.

The new cooperation agreement is the first tangible signs that the deep rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over Yemen’s future is starting to be healed – if only because the advance by Houthi forces across Yemen has alarmed all the rival Gulf state rulers.

Saudi Arabia is facing daily drone and missile attacks and is struggling to maintain an atmosphere of normality, as Houthi strikes immobilise its airports and some of its energy infrastructure.

Southern forces – mainly in the Giant Brigades – were previously trained and funded by the UAE, and are regarded as some of the most effective in the disjointed anti-Houthi military coalition. But the UAE quit operations inside Yemen in January, cutting off its funding supply line.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE have responded to a demand this week by southern Yemen separatists for a referendum on secession, a move that would restore the 1967-1990 borders, when Yemen was two separate states.

The separatist Southern Transition Council has also not yet agreed for its troops to fight outside the borders of the old Southern Yemen, but an explicit agreement by Saudi Arabia to allow a referendum would be likely to lead to the lifting of that restriction.

Yemen’s UN-recognised government, based in Aden, declared last week a counteroffensive to drive Houthi forces from the capital Sana’a, but so far the military drive has met with limited success around Majzar near Marib and the Bab al-Mandab strait.

There is also no direct contact between the STC leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, and Saudi officials. Zubaidi fled to Abu Dhabi in January after a failed STC attempt to take charge across the south and announce a referendum on separation in two years’ time. In response, the Saudis bombed UAE arms shipments for STC forces.

The UAE then announced it was quitting all involvement in Yemen, and the Saudi-backed government said it would seek to try Zubaidi for treason.

UAE officials are deeply concerned by the state of the conflict. Despite massive losses, the Houthis are determined eventually to capture Taiz and Marib, the two remaining cities outside the boundaries of the old Southern Yemen.

On Friday two missiles fired by the Houthis struck the airport of Aden while a passenger plane was preparing to take off. No casualties were reported.

The missiles landed about 500 meters from the Yemenia Airways aircraft, and approximately 100 meters from the midpoint of the runway, said Yemen’s information minister, Moammar Al-Eryani.

The strike came a day after at least five people were killed and 16 injured in a Houthi attack on a presidential palace in Aden.

Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el Sisi, said he was convening an emergency session of parliament to grant his country’s military the powers to take action in defence of Saudi Arabia. He stressed Egypt would not be taking any offensive action, and would only defend Saudi Arabia.

In the UK, discussions are continuing about a Saudi request for further military aid. The UK has sent an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft, but regional diplomats are pressing for the UK to do more. Some concern is being expressed over whether Riyadh should be engaging closer with other Gulf States, including Oman and Qatar, on the issue.

The legal implications of a blanket UK backing for the largely Saudi air campaign is also being considered, since the court of appeal in 2019 found the UK had acted unlawfully in issuing arms export licences during a previous Saudi bombing campaign of Yemen in 2015-16. The Campaign Against Arms Trade said the UK had made no proper assessment of potential Saudi breaches of international humanitarian law, forcing the UK to revise its procedures.

Saudi Arabia claims to have revised its methods substantially since then, and certainly argues that it is acting in self-defence in line with the UN charter. The UN security council on 15 October adopted a UN presidential statement on 15 October asserting Saudi Arabia’s right to act in self-defence in line with international law.

No accurate death toll in the war since August is available, but more than 200,000 people have been displaced, according to the UN, which is placing increasing pressure on Aden-based humanitarian groups.

European Union leaders rallied around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a summit on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump fired another salvo at Ukraine, calling its strikes on Russian refineries a "disgrace".

The EU is hosting Zelenskyy in Brussels at one of the most difficult moments for Ukraine, with missiles and drones raining down on Ukrainian cities and fears that the US could pull back intelligence sharing and weapons support from Kyiv.

A U.S. official has denied that Trump ordered a deliberate slowdown of Starshield, which is the military-grade version of the Starlink service operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, and Trump said this week intelligence sharing with Ukraine continued.

Iran’s missiles and drones have hit Gulf infrastructure sites at least 135 times, causing cascading failures that Gulf states have often concealed. Despite repeated official statements that the damage came from debris, Reuters found the equipment struck was, time and again, exactly what mattered most.

After oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz rose to post-February highs last month, a new “October window of escalation” is heating up as the Yemeni Houthis dramatically increase their attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iran again takes aim at more tankers and shipping containers, geopolitical and energy analysts said.

The U.S. response thus far? Essentially, crickets. President Donald Trump has accused them of “behaving very badly” and that the U.S. will “move very quickly.” But little military action has been taken thus far.

It seems both the U.S. and Iran are eyeing the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Trump wants to avoid escalation before then, that further increases gasoline and diesel prices, while Iran wants to inflict maximum political damage. Trump has essentially admitted as much multiple times, adding on social media on Tuesday: “I’ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!”

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Vladimir Putin is becoming “more creative” in the way he launches so-called ‘hybrid attacks’, the former envoy to NATO warned.

In terms of the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, Ambassador Smith said the bloc potentially faces a dilemma. 

She pointed out that Vladimir Putin is becoming “more creative” in the way he launches so-called ‘hybrid attacks’ below the level of open conflict, and suggested an act of sabotage, for example on a train line, could cause civilian casualties. 

“That puts NATO in a difficult position, because at that point, you're really not talking about hybrid; you're talking about a kinetic attack on NATO territory,” she said.