I've been tracking the daily early vote files in North Carolina (both mail and early in-person) and matching them against the exact same day before the election in 2022 and 2024.
Right now we're at 238,000 ballots cast, which is up 25% compared to this point in 2022. By party registration, it breaks down to 46.9% Democrat, 19.5% Republican, and 33.6% Unaffiliated (Unaffiliated voters are up 42% over 2022).
That puts the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans at D+27.4 right now. At this exact same point in 2022, it was D+13.2. At this point in 2024, it was D+3.1.
What makes that jump so crazy is the shift in how Republicans treat early voting. Back in 2022, a lot of Republicans avoided early voting on principle, which gave Dems a big head start. By 2024, the GOP was heavily advertising and telling their voters to bank their votes early—which is why the gap at this point in 2024 was only D+3.1.
Normally, now that Republicans actively push early voting, you'd expect the early Dem lead to stay much smaller than 2022. Instead, Dem early ballots are up 41% while Republican early ballots are down 14%, blowing past both 2024 and 2022.
Two quick reality checks before anyone reads too much into it: first, party registration isn't a vote, and with a third of the ballots coming from Unaffiliated voters, nobody knows how those break until Election Night. Second, in 2022 that D+13.2 lead shrunk down to D+7.1 by the end of early voting as more Republicans showed up in the final week. That's why we don't feed early voting into our forecast model.
If you want to keep an eye on it over the next two weeks, I update the tracker three times a day here:
https://www.callthemap.com/early-vote